Transcript Slide 1

UK COMMISSION FOR
EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLS
Ambition 2020: World Class Skills and Jobs
ANNUAL IED CONFERENCE
Bournemouth
7-8th October 2009
Michael Davis
Director of Strategy & Performance
UK Commission for Employment and Skills
In a nutshell
UK COMMISSION FOR
EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLS
• Role
– Our role is to provide independent advice to the highest levels of
Government on steps required to achieve world class standing in
employment and skills by 2020.
• Remit to
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– Assess annually UK progress towards becoming a world class leader in
employment and skills by 2020, consistent with the aims and priorities of the four
nations
– Advise the highest levels of Government on policies and delivery that will
contribute to increased jobs, skills and productivity
– Monitor the contribution and challenge the performance of each part of the UK
employment and skills systems in meeting the needs of employers and
individuals, and recommend improvements in policy, delivery and innovation
– Promote greater employer engagement, influence and investment in workforce
development
– Fund and manage the performance of the Sector Skills Councils as key industry
leaders in skills and employment.
Ambition 2020: Contents and Structure
UK COMMISSION FOR
EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLS
Progress:
How Are
We Doing?
The
Agenda:
Prosperity,
Jobs and
Skills
The
Ambition:
Skills and
Jobs
Prospects
to 2020:
Where Are
We Going?
Other
Measures
of Skill
Development
3
Jobs:
Today and
Tomorrow
Mismatches
Between
Jobs and
Skills
Raising
Employer
Ambition
Skills and
Employment
Policy
The Agenda and the Ambition
UK COMMISSION FOR
EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLS
Employment:
Employment populations ratio 2007, all persons 15-64
90
High employment/
low productivity
High employment/
high productivity
Iceland
85
Employment:
th place
UK 10Switzerland
80
Denmark
Sweden
Australia
Norway
SETTING
A WORLD CLASS AMBITION:
New Zealand
75
Canada
Netherlands
Productivity:
UK
UK 11th place
USA
SUSTAINABLE ECONOMICJapan
COMPETITIVENESS
& SOCIAL COHESION
Austria
70
Finland
2020 Goal: World Class Productivity
Levels
in top 8 OECD countries
Germany -Ireland
Portugal
CzechGoal:
Republic World Class Employment
Spain
2020
Levels - in top 8 OECD countries
65
2020 Goal:
- in top 8 OECD countries
Korea World Class Skill Levels France
Luxembourg
Greece
Slovak Republic
Mexico
60
Belgium
Italy
Hungary
Poland
55
Low employment/
high productivity
Low employment/
low productivity
50
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
Productivity: GDP per hour worked (US$ at current prices), 2007
4
Source: UKCES, Ambition 2020: World Class Skills and Jobs for the UK, 2009, pp 21-22
The Agenda: Productivity and employment
in the Nations and Regions of the UK
5
UK COMMISSION FOR
EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLS
5
The Agenda : Routes to Prosperity
UK COMMISSION FOR
EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLS
 Employment – the UK ranks 10th
 Productivity – the UK ranks 11th
 Inequality – the UK ranks 14th
 National, Regional and Sectoral variations are critical
 Skills are central to raising employment and
productivity and reducing inequality
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Skills and Employment
UK COMMISSION FOR
EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLS
The Low Skilled experience low and declining employment rates –
the only disadvantaged group to do so
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Source: UKCES, Ambition 2020: World Class Skills and Jobs for the UK, 2009, Chart 1.5, p 29 – DWP using Labour Force Survey
Skills: the route to Prosperity
Gross earnings (£000s)
UK COMMISSION FOR
EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLS
21
24
27
30
33
36
39
42
45
48
51
54
57
AGE
8
Source: Cabinet Office, Getting On, Getting Ahead: A Discussion Paper: Analysing the Trends and Drivers of Social Mobility, 2008
The UK Qualifications Profile 1997-2007:
good progress over last decade
1997
UK Qualification
Achievements
2007
UK COMMISSION FOR
EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLS
1997-2007 Change
1997 – 2007
%
Nos (‘000s)
%
Nos (‘000s)
%
Nos (‘000s)
Level 5
3
1087
7
2274
110
+1187
Level 4
18
6101
24
8060
32
+1959
Level 3
18
5999
20
6738
12
+739
Level 2
21
6865
20
6912
1
+47
Below Level 2
21
7074
17
6019
-15
-1055
No Qualifications
18
5920
12
4351
-26
-1569
+44%
-26%
9
Source: Labour Force Survey, 2008 – Note: Working age population 19 – 59/64
Progress towards 2020 Ambitions
UK COMMISSION FOR
EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLS
2020 Ambition
Today
(2006)
2020
Forecast
Outcome
Low level skills
Top 8
17
23
Intermediate level skills
Top 8
18
21
High level skills
Top 8
12
10
Skill Level
Sir John Rose, CEO Rolls-Royce (May 2006)
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There are only three ways of creating wealth. You dig it up, grow it, or convert it to add
value, anything else is merely moving it about. In a high-wage economy you must focus on
high converted-value activities. To achieve high converted value you need good education
and differentiating skills
Our Prospects
UK COMMISSION FOR
EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLS
Basic Skills
• We will achieve our basic literacy objective of 95%
• We will not achieve our basic numeracy objective of
95%
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Demand: jobs mismatch and employer
ambition
UK COMMISSION FOR
EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLS
 growth of skilled jobs and decline of low skill jobs
stalled;
 no real evidence of deep seated shortages;
 over qualification … or underemployment;
 evidence that the UK’s excess demand over supply is
low relative to other countries;
 slowest positive growth in skilled jobs, yet fast
growth in skilled workers
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Employer Ambition
•
UK COMMISSION FOR
EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLS
We need to go beyond:
(i) raising skill levels; and
(ii) a better match between skill requirements and skills
availability

Skills as a ‘derived’demand
–
–
–

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Economic Policy
Skill Utilisation
Management and Leadership
The ‘virtuous circle’ of raising skills demand and supply
Key Messages to Government: a new Policy
Framework
Economic
Positive
Performance
Economic
and Social
Outcomes
Reduced
Inequality
Employment
Learning
provision
Skills
Attainment
Supply of Skills
Accredited
Informal
(Qualification)
(Training)
Skills Investment
Individual, Employer,
Government
Guidance –
firms & people
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Potential
Workforce
Supply
Match
Mismatch
Productivity
Required
Workforce
Business
Economy –
Employment
level/structure
Strategy
Demand
Management
& Leadership
• Shortages and skills gaps
Negative
• Unemployment and Inactivity
Economic
• ‘Over-skilled’ / ‘Under-employed
and Social
• Migration
Outcomes
Jobs
UK COMMISSION FOR
EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLS
Skills
Utilisation
Industrial
Policy
Economic
Policy
Other
Drivers
Demand
Moving forward
UK COMMISSION FOR
EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLS
If we keep on doing what we’ve
always done, we’ll keep on getting
what we’ve always got!”
W.L. Bateman
“The world we have created is a
product of our thinking.
If we want to change the world we
first have to change our thinking”
A Einstein
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Skills, Jobs Growth – emerging thoughts
Actively
signal
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For the
journey
UK COMMISSION FOR
EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLS
Focus
on
outcomes
Raise
employer
ambition
Motivate
individuals
Agile skills
system
HPW
Personal
Accounts
Empower
Customers
World
class jobs,
skills and
growth
Empowering customers at point of
purchase
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UK COMMISSION FOR
EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLS