Transcript スライド 1 - Yokohama National University

Can we manage rare disaster with
huge hazard? Lessons from the
earthquake in Japan, 2011
Fukushima-1 NPP
Hiroyuki MATSUDA
(Yokohama Nat’l Univ.)
Tsunami
Planet under Pressure
London, March 27, 2012
Coastal Disasters, Resilience and Adaptation
- Examining Successful Strategies
Rm 14, 10:30-12:00, 27th
Coastal and marine areas worldwide face severe hazards from
recurring natural and human-caused disasters such as earthquakes and tsunamis, oil blowouts, cyclones, increased land
salinity, droughts and floods. In response, governments and
people have developed various adaptation techniques either
based on indigenous knowledge or modern engineering or by
relying on the resilience of ecosystems and natural buffers for
protection. Economic and regulatory interventions in the form
of insurance, international aid, private transfers, and innovative
disaster management programs have also emerged. There are
many success stories as well as lessons to learn for future
preparedness. The session focuses on disaster mitigation and
adaptation, i.e. on understanding what strategies work and are
least cost responses to coastal disasters.
11 Posters
1. E.L.Bohensky: ‘Make or break': community discourse of resilience in response
to natural disasters in Australian coastal communities
2. F.Crick: Dynamic Assessment of Coastal Vulnerability and Adaptation to Sea
Level Rise: An Integrated Spatial-Temporal Decision Making Approach
3. L.Garuana: Perceptions of changes in the weather and the sea by artisanal
fishermen of the Southeastern coast of Brazil and the use of local knowledge to
deal with climate unpredictability
4. N.A.Gillani: Public policy for managing coastal disaster
5. F.Olorunfemi: Awareness of and responses to 2011 flood warnings in
vulnerable communities in Lagos, Nigeria
6. P.Sarkhel: Behind New Barrier Walls: Private Contribution for
EmbankmentConservation in Indian Sundarbans
7. D.Suroso: Global climate change impacts on small island cities: adaptation
planning in the Tarakan Municipality, East Kalimanatan, Indonesia
8. M.R.A.Talukder: Disaster-Development Linkages: Bangladesh Perspectives
9. C.Umetsu: Building Resilience of Tsunami Affected Farm Households in
Coastal Region of India
10. J.Urabe: The 3.11 tsunami and resilience of tidal flat ecosystems: a sustainable
monitoring program
11. M.R.A.Talukder: Disaster Resilience in Bangladesh Agriculture: Stakeholders’
Perceptions on Micro-insurance as a Development Tool
Session program (orals)
1. Dr. S. Das: Role of Natural Buffers in Disaster
Management: Mangroves and Storm Protection
2. Matsuda: Can we manage rare disaster with huge
hazard? Lessons from the earthquake in Japan, 2011
3. Dr. S. Hochrainer-Stigler &: Impact Assessment of
Disaster Microinsurance forPro-Poor Risk Management:
Evidence from South Asia
4. Dr. E. Alcântara &: The resilience and vulnerability of
Brazilian cities: a comparative study together with the
lessons learned from the catastrophes in Teresópolis,
RJ and Barreiros, PE
5. Dr. M.P. Crosby &: Oil spill induced trophic cascades in
the Gulf of Mexico
6. Discussion
Summary of my talk (1/3)
• I survey prompt reports on impacts of the
Eastern Japan Earthquake 2011 and
accompanied tsunami and nuclear power
disaster on ecosystems, agricultural
products and fisheries resources.
September 2010
September 2011
http://www.iitate-madei.com/village06_2011.html
2. Compensation is impossible
• If the frequency of such a huge earthquake is
less than once a millennium, the magnitude of
expected risk, evaluated by the product of the
probability of occurrence and the magnitude of
hazard, might be sufficiently small. However,
even though the same magnitude of risk, we
should avoid a rare disaster with a huge hazard.
The cost of such a huge hazard is too huge to
compensate
refugees
and
damaged
ecosystems.
Compensation of Fukushima NPP disaster is covered by the Japan
Government and increase of electricity price
3. Fukushima NPP disaster
• I also investigate radioactive contamination by the Fukushima Nuclear Power
Plant disaster on agricultural products and
fisheries resources. A novel effect of this
accident on wildlife is overabundance in
the neighborhood of the plant because of
absence of population control. Radioactive
contamination on foods is not very high,
but caused a big impact on processors,
traders and consumers.
Earthquake 2011.3.11
• 3.11 14:46 Earthquake
• 3.11 15:46 Tsunami
attacked on FukushimaLandslide (m) Daiichi NPP
8
http://www.imart.co.jp/tohoku-hisachii-jyouhou.html#houshano-oen-saigai
Ground subsidence
Kesen-Numa Port
(photo by N. Hayashi)
9
Height of tsunami
Height of tsunami (m)
< 5m
5-10m
>10m
Ofunato
Kamashi
Ishinomaki
Onagawa
Sendai
Kuj
i
Inundation heights is
much larger (~37m at
Onagawa City)
Fukushima Daiichi NPP
10
Reconstruction from tsunami
• Reconstruction rather than recovery
• Shift residential area to uphill zones, but
fishers still like to live in coast. Some tries
reformation without consensus.
• Many subcontract factories of (car) industry
were damaged.
• Used boats from outside were available.
Fishers were supported, but…
• Freezers were damaged, food-processing/
frozen seafoods industries were damaged.
Kizuna311
http://kizuna311.com
Message to everybody all over the world
…We Japanese can take pride in our "Kizuna", the
solidarity that binds us…. We decided to create a video
library showing the power and benefits from voluntary work
efforts. We wish to deliver the message of hope to the
victims and kindle a light in each one's heart.
We understand that each medium has its role. We would
like to show a different point of view from what the mass
media reports everyday. …We believe that this message
inspires the power of Kizuna among the victims of these
tragedies, and demonstrates our Kizuna to the world.
… linking to UNITE FOR JAPAN site.
http://yellow.ap.teacup.com/thinkmon/1194.html
http://pub.ne.jp/newjei/?entry_id=3823685
Discrimination to
radioactive contamination
• Discrimination even in the Kyoto traditional
religious events
• Pine woods with prayers’ message, almost
no contaminated, were rejected to be burn in
Kyoto religious event (August 16, 2011)
• Garage sales of food products of Fukushima
in Fukuoka was cancelled.
• Patients from Fukushima were
rejected by hospitals.
13
http://www.asahi.com/national/update/0925/TKY201109250289.html
Total exposure (mSv/yr)
and cancer risk (％)
• Major source of exposure is external at
least >20km far from Fukushima Daiichi
NPP.
• Exposure from foods depends on person
(to buy or not products of Fukushima)
Place
Exte
r-nal
Respiration
Fukushi 8.0 ~1.0
ma city
Tokyo
0.13 ~0
Drink
Foods
soil
Total
(mSv/yr)
0.03
1.01
<0.5 11
~0
~1.01 ~0
0.5
Cancer
Risk (%)
0.06
0.00314
Tsumune et al. (2011) 電中研Repor
Flow of contaminated waters
April 13
May 1
Tsumune et al (2011) J Env Radioactivity, in press
15
After Tsumune et al. (2011) 電中研Repor
Release of radioactive
contamination to seawater
hole into the pit
categories
Total emission Max. concentration
Direct emission
3.5±0.7 PBq 68kBq/L
From Atmosphere ca.80% of
15PBq
Planned low-level 0.000042PBq
contaminated
water release
http://the-news.jp/archives/1117
16
Megafloat for cooling water tanks
Tsumune et al. (2011) 電中研Repor
Cs-137 concentration near NPP
17
Suspended farms in
Iitate village (outside of
exclusive zone)
September 2010
September 2011
18
http://www.iitate-madei.com/village06_2011.html
Fukushima, Ibaraki, Chiba
Inland fish in Tochigi
Seafoods
Far from Fukushima
19
Ministry of Agriculture’s campaign
“Support Eastern Japan by eating foods”
20