Transcript EDUCATION AS A RURAL DEVELOPMENT - Santee
The Future is Now
Making the Right Decisions for Educating South Carolina’s Youth
James T. Darby, Jr.
Executive Director, Santee-Lynches Regional COG First Steps Executive Director Institute June 26, 2008 The Colonial Center
“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.”
A Tale of Two Cities Charles Dickens 1859
“Sweet are the uses of adversity.”
As You Like It William Shakespeare 1599-1600
U.S. Economic, Demographic, and Fiscal Challenges Ahead
The United States faces economic, demographic, and fiscal realities that threaten our economic growth and competitiveness.
• The forces of globalization and technology continue to redefine the knowledge economy; tomorrow’s workers must rely more on brain than on brawn.
• Without a well-educated workforce, it will be difficult to maintain the increases in productivity that raise American standards of living.
Source: The Economic Promise of Investing in High Quality Preschool: Sponsored by a grant from the Pew Charitable Trusts, Committee for Economic Development, 2006
Demographic Changes will also make it Difficult to Attract and Retain the Skilled Workers we Need
• Past increases in economic output were propelled in part by rapid growth in the size of the U.S. labor force.
• In the coming years, U.S. and local labor force growth will slow sharply as the Baby Boomer generation retires.
Source: The Economic Promise of Investing in High Quality Preschool: Sponsored by a grant from the Pew Charitable Trusts, Committee for Economic Development, 2006
MEDIAN AGE TRENDS: S.C., GEORGIA, & N.C. (2000-2030)
42 40 38 36 34 32 2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 2010 2020 Georgia N. Carolina 2030 S. Carolina
Projected Under 18, 65 & Over Population for 2030
Georgia Under 18 Population Under 18 Percent of Total Population 65 & Over Population 65 & Over Percent of Total Population Percent Difference Under 18 and 65 & Over 3,146,624 26.2% 1,907,837 15.9% 10.3% North Carolina South Carolina 3,080,611 1,143,807 25.2% 22.2% 2,173,173 17.8% 1,134,459 22.0% 7.4% 0.2% Source: U.S. Census Bureau Projections, 2005
South Carolina Age Group Trends 2000 to 2030
2,800 2,000 1,200 400 2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Projections 2005 2010 Note: These numbers used in this graphic are rounded to the nearest 1,000.
2020 Youth Working Age 2030 Seniors
Improving labor force quality will also be difficult since high school and college graduation rates are lower than previous decades.
Overall 8th grade-to-graduation rate estimates by county and state County ‘00-01 ‘01-02 ‘02-03 3-yr. avg.
‘03-04 ‘04-05 ‘05-06 3-yr. avg.
3-yr.
avg. hike ‘06-07 Clarendon
54.3% 57.5% 57.5% 56.4% 57.5% 61.3% 62.3% 60.4% +4.0% 66.4%
Kershaw
63.2% 64.7% 67.1% 65.0% 66.0% 65.0% 67.9% 66.3% +1.3% 68.5%
Lee
43.5% 50.6% 52.1% 48.4% 45.2% 55.8% 61.7% 54.2% +5.8% 47.3%
Sumter STATE
53.1% 53.2% 58.8% 55.0% 60.2% 64.7% 66.7% 63.9%
56.8% 57.2% 64.8% 59.5% 60.9% 61.8% 66.2% 63.0%
+8.9% 67.2%
+3.5% 67.5%
Central Carolina Technical College enrollment
Year Fall 2000 Fall 2001 Fall 2002 Fall 2003 Fall 2004 Fall 2005 Fall 2006 Fall 2007 Enrollment of credit students*
2,546 2,962 3,265 3,191 3,259 3,244 2,931 3,283
542 (16.5%) are 18-19 year-olds Percent change ’00-’07 +28.9%
* Credit students are enrolled in a formal program of study to earn a certificate, diploma or degree.
Morris College enrollment
Year Fall 2000 Fall 2001 Fall 2002 Fall 2003 Fall 2004 Full-time freshmen from high school Total enrollment
265 940 267 986 282 270 231 1,049 1,007 897
Fall 2005 Fall 2006 Fall 2007
205 247 299
Percent change ’00-’07 +12.8%
863 824 893
-5.0%
USC Sumter enrollment
Year Fall 2000 Fall 2001 Fall 2002 Fall 2003 Fall 2004 Fall 2005 Fall 2006 Fall 2007 Percent change ’00-’07 Full-time freshmen from high school Total enrollment
193 1,173 191 1,184 200 171 1,149 1,184 200 1,042 183 1,020 224 250*
+29.5%
1,088 1,174
+0.1%
* Increase in 2007 from 2006 due to new athletics program.
CHALLENGES and OPPORTUNITIES for PEOPLE OF COLOR
• Most new workers will need to come from minority populations that have historically completed fewer years of school.
Source: The Economic Promise of Investing in High Quality Preschool: Sponsored by a grant from the Pew Charitable Trusts, Committee for Economic Development, 2006
Clarendon, Kershaw, Lee and Sumter Counties
The Santee Lynches Region’s Population is Aging
80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 66,610 14.997
1950 74,893 18,013 1960 65,224 22,411 1970 57,949 30,536 55,229 36,379 1980 1990 17 Yrs & Under 56,726 44,604 2000 55 Yrs & Over
Source: US Census Bureau – 1950-2000 Census
There is a racial dimension to the potential lack of sufficient young workers to replace the aging workforce. While the Black population accounts for 44.2% of the region’s total population, they account for 50.3% of the region’s youth 17-and-under.
When combined with other traditional percentage increases to 53.7% of the youth population.
minorities, this
Aging Population (continued)
Population Black County Median Age by Race – Census 2000 Clarendon Co.
31.7 Years Kershaw Co.
35.0 Years Lee County 31.5 Years Sumter Co.
30.7 Years White 43.3 Years 38.5 Years 42.3 Years 36.2 Years Overall median age 37.0 Years 37.4 Years 35.7 Years 33.4 Years
The Black portion of the region’s population is significantly younger than the White population. Therefore, Black youth will make up a larger share of the future labor force available to fill jobs vacated by retirees. This will require a much greater commitment on the part of the minority youth, local educators and business leaders to insure these young people are fully prepared to meet this situation.
Poverty
“Two nations, between whom there is no intercourse and no sympathy; who are as ignorant of each other’s habits, thoughts, and feelings as if they were dwellers in different zones, or inhabitants of different planets; who are formed by a different breeding, are fed by a different food, are ordered by different manners, and are not governed by the same laws …
the rich and the poor
.
” 1845 , Benjamin Disraeli British Prime Minister and author Source: The Impact of Poverty: The Poor Among Us; Leslie Cantu, Senior Staff Writer
The Item
, October 8, 2006
“We’re going to have to look beyond ourselves, beyond our individual schools and school districts, and work to put a better funding system in place. We may be uncomfortable in the short term, but in the long run it will be the only thing that saves our state from ruin.” Jim Rex State Superintendent of Education June 18, 2008
Poverty rates by ethnic group -- 2000
Overall poverty rate White population Black population Hispanic population Source: US Census 2000 STATE 14.1
8.6
26.4
25.4
Clarendon 23.1
11.2
32.1
53.6
Lee 21.8
6.9
30.7
15.3
Sumter 16.2
6.9
26.5
24.6
The basics of being
“At-Risk”
• “Between birth and age six, children develop the essential language and cognitive skills required to learn reading and arithmetic.
• They also develop their ability to manage emotions and stress, and to cooperate with others.
• Lack of school readiness puts children at risk of academic, social and behavioral difficulties in school, leaving before high school graduation, becoming involved in criminal behavior, becoming pregnant as a teenager, and becoming addicted to tobacco, alcohol and other drugs.
”* * Development Health and the Wealth of Nations: Social, Biological and Educational Dynamics (1999), Keating, Hertzman
The Case for an Early Childhood Development Strategy
, Autumn 2000
Jim Rex’s State of Education speech
June 18, 2008
Percentages of children in poverty and children in single-parent families impede educational attainment in our state.
(S.C. ranks 36 th in both categories.)
Youth, Adult & Single-Parent Statistics
Percent of students meeting standards on 2007 PACT Grade Curric.
Lee Clar. 1 Clar. 2 Clar. 3 Sum. 17 Kershaw STATE 3 English Math 75.1
56.3
95.2
83.3
86.8
73.1
86.0
65.2
82.4
76.7
87.7
82.4
85.8
78.4
4 English Math 49.7
38.5
74.2
61.3
79.2
68.2
88.5
90.9
79.5
72.7
87.2
79.0
82.7
78.1
5 English Math 37.4
38.7
41.9
45.2
59.8
57.8
75.7
76.0
77.2
76.3
79.5
77.4
77.2
77.7
6 7 English Math English 42.3
49.4
46.6
48.0
52.0
58.8
66.9
77.0
56.7
56.8
73.4
67.0
60.2
69.7
68.0
74.6
83.2
78.4
70.9
77.2
69.8
Math 54.6
67.6
70.5
79.6
69.6
84.3
76.8
8 English Math 57.4
44.8
48.8
36.3
61.9
56.9
59.6
62.9
61.7
54.5
76.2
74.8
Red
totals indicate less than 60 percent of students scored Basic or better.
71.3
67.9
Orange
totals indicate percentage of students scoring Basic or better was over 60 percent but still more than 10 percent below state average.
Percent of Persons 25 Years & Over Without a High School Diploma by Race (Santee-Lynches Region) 48.1% 45.5% 50.0% 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% African-Amer White Clarendon 21.4% 35.0% Kershaw 20.4% 26.1% 35.5% 17.7% Lee Sumter Note: White percentages are for White Non Hispanic Population Source: U.S. Census 2000
Single-parent families
The continuing rise in out-of-wedlock births and the divorce rate have resulted in a phenomenal increase in single-parent families throughout the state. Our three counties have a very high percentage of children in single-parent families, with 40% of all children in Lee and Clarendon living in single-parent families.
Percent of children in single-parent families 45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
15.9
14.5
21.8
20.6
18.9
33.7
30.0
41.9
39.3
34.0
31.3
1970 1980 1990 2000
U.S. Census 1970-2000
Lee Clarendon Sumter State
The percentage of children in single-parent families has more than doubled in each county and the state since 1970.
Single-parent families and poverty
Single-parent families are a major component of poverty at the state and local levels. A majority of these families are headed by single females and many are likely to be poor. Race plays another key role in the overall numbers with minorities having significantly higher levels of single-parent families and the associated poorer living conditions.
Area Clarendon Minority children in single-parent families 53.2% White children in single-parent families 17.9% Lee Sumter STATE 51.6% 49.0% 52.0% 18.1% 17.3% 19.0% Children in single-parent families in poverty 42.7% 39.9% 36.6% 34.0% Children in married families in poverty 11.5% 9.0% 7.2% 6.2%
Source: U.S. Census 2000
Why is this important?
Generational Poverty and Situational Poverty are Different
“Generational poverty is defined as being in poverty for two generations or longer.
Situational poverty exists for a shorter time and is caused by circumstances like death, illness, or divorce.
”
Source: No Child Left Behind: How do you Develop Intellectual Capital in Children from Poverty
Payne, Ruby K.; Founder of aha! Process, Inc. News, Highland, Texas
Threshold Counties (4) (12) (34) Average 22.3% Persistent Poverty Average 12.7% Other
“The environment of generational poverty (two generations or more) requires source that because an individual become reactive, sensory-based (physical) and dependent on non verbals as a primary information those three things help environment.
” one survive the
Source: No Child Left Behind: How do you Develop Intellectual Capital in Children from Poverty
Payne, Ruby K.; Founder of aha! Process, Inc. News, Highland, Texas
“To survive in the school and work environment, one needs to be proactive, verbal and abstract.”
Source: No Child Left Behind: How do you Develop Intellectual Capital in Children from Poverty
Payne, Ruby K.; Founder of aha! Process, Inc. News, Highland, Texas
“Being proactive (ability to plan), verbal (use of specific language) and abstract (ability to represent the sensory) are all learned. They can be taught.
Many students who are assigned to special education are from poverty and cannot do these three things. Rather than teach these things, educators tend to assign the student to a different placement.
”
Source: No Child Left Behind: How do you Develop Intellectual Capital in Children from Poverty
Payne, Ruby K.; Founder of aha! Process, Inc. News, Highland, Texas
“Please understand that students from poverty are much more capable than students from middle class in surviving a reaction, non-verbal, sensory-based (physical) environment. This is not about intelligence.
It is environment requires.
” about what the
Source: No Child Left Behind: How do you Develop Intellectual Capital in Children from Poverty
Payne, Ruby K.; Founder of aha! Process, Inc. News, Highland, Texas
According to author Ruby K. Payne, ‘being poor brings out a survival mentality, and turns attention away from opportunities taken for granted by the middle class and wealthy.’
Source: A Framework for Understanding Poverty; Payne, Ruby K.
Aha! Process, Inc. News, Highland, Texas
“Planning is key to the tasks that get finished and to the control of impulsivity.
Even more importantly, brain research indicates that the primary filter for what gets noticed by the mind is closely correlated with the goals of the person.
So when there is no planning, there are no goals. Emotional need or association, then, determines activities.
”
Source: No Child Left Behind: How do you Develop Intellectual Capital in Children from Poverty
Payne, Ruby K.; Founder of aha! Process, Inc. News, Highland, Texas
“Problems cannot be solved … with the same thinking that created them.”
Albert Einstein
There are pragmatic reasons to extend a hand to low income Americans as well, said Sue Berkowitz, director of South Carolina Appleseed Justice Center.
“As we help others in our community, it helps our community as a whole,” she said.
If we invest in education, we’ll have a more educated workforce, which helps the business community, she said.
Helping people with childcare allows them to work and be productive; ensuring that working people can earn enough to support a family can ease off on stressors that can sometimes lead to domestic violence, child abuse, or crime she said. In the long run, investing money upfront in helping people be self-supporting will save money on state programs and departments on the back end.
“You will see an effect on all of us,” she said.
Source: The Impact of Poverty: The Poor Among Us; Leslie Cantu, Senior Staff Writer
The Item
, October 8, 2006
In 15 years since the school-funding lawsuit began much as changed in S.C. …
•
Public school enrollment:
In 1993, it was 630,100 students; today, 685,600.
•
First year teacher’s average salary:
In 1993, it was $19,241; today, it’s $31,314 (62% increase).
•
Average salary, all teachers:
In 1993, $29,299; today, $45,526 (55.7% increase) •
Public school spending:
In 1993, $1.8 billion; anticipated in coming year, $3.7 billion (105% increase) Source:
The State
newspaper, June 23, 2008
Benefits from Public Investment strategy to generate positive returns (
1) Wrong Policy & Investment/Cost Increase Cost $0.00
Strategic Public Policy & Investment Negative Public Costs Impact Savings Trend Cost Reduction (2) Breakeven – Maintain Policy (3) Best Practice – Net Gain Examples:
Incarceration
Loss of potential income
Health care Reinvestment Options:
Sustainability
New Programs and Services
General Cost Reduction Time
Incarceration costs
S.C. INMATE PROFILE
23,434 inmates – June 30, 2007
• 59% don’t have high school diploma/GED • 48% are drug abusers • For 20% of inmates, drugs are the “most serious offense.
” (The offense with the highest severity level.) • 62.3% are African American men • 23% are 25 years old or younger
Source: S.C. Department of Corrections
WEIGHING THE COSTS INCARCERATION - VERSUS - EDUCATION
1 Adult Inmate Incarcerated In State
$41.52/day
$15,156/year 1 Juvenile Incarcerated In State
$135/day
$49,275/year 1 Student 1 Student Educated
THE DIFFERENCES
Juvenile/Student Cost per day more than six times expensive Adult Inmate/Student Cost per day nearly double (1.86 times as expensive) Sources: Fiscal 2006 statistics from S.C. Department of Corrections, S.C. Department of Juvenile Justice, and S.C. Department of Education
State incarceration rates
2007 state incarceration rates (per 100,000 residents) -- S.C. is 8th among 50 states - 900 857 800 700 723 682 670 611 600 500 558 546 526 451 400 300 362 200 La.
Miss. Texas Okla.
Ala.
Ga.
Ariz.
S.C.
State avg.
N.C.
Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics 2007 report, U.S. Department of Justice
Income loss
Some College and Per Capita Income, 2000, for adults 25-and-older
$40,000 $30,000
Beaufort Charleston Richland
$20,000
Clar endon
$10,000 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 Percent of Population With At Least Some College 60 65 70
EDUCATION ATTAINMENT & EARNINGS POTENTIAL
• $16,121/yr • $24,572/yr • $32,152/yr • $45,678/yr • $55,641/yr • $86,833/yr No High School Diploma High School Diploma Associate Degree Bachelor Degree Master Degree Doctorate Degree $644,840 (40 yrs) $982,880 $1,286,080 $1,827,120 $2,225,640 $3,473,320 U.S. Census 2000
Recent graduation rates study findings
Sumter County dropouts or non-diploma recipients by cohort class 2000 ‘01 2001-‘02 2002-‘03 2003-‘04 2004-‘05 2005-‘06 2006-‘07 698 679 580 592 480 459 488
During recent academic years (2003-04 through 2006-07), the three public high schools in Sumter County with a 64.7% graduation rate have combined to lose an average of 505 students annually who failed to graduate with a state diploma.
505 students x $16,121 wages = $8.1M total wages per year 505 students x $24,572 wages = $12.4M total wages per year
A difference of $4.3M per year and $171M over 40 years.
Health Care Costs
$60.00
$55.00
Santee Lynches Region’s annual charges for “Uninsured” inpatient hospitalizations (in millions of dollars) $53.99
$51.75
$50.00
$45.00
$40.00
$35.00
$30.00
$25.00
$31.38
$41.06
$22.6M
increase from 2003 to 2006 in 4 counties.
(Clarendon, Kershaw, Lee & Sumter)
$20.00
$15.00
2003 2004 2005 2006
Source: S.C. Budget & Control Board, Office of Research & Statistics, 2003-06 annual data
Totals don’t include ER outpatient services
• • • • • • • • • •
So, What Are We To Do?
We tease apart the fibers of chronic poverty: Develop a new understanding of what poverty is and the specific proven methods to overcome it Re-evaluate education methods used in rural areas of South Carolina that have historically demonstrated chronic social and economic poverty – – Community-wide early childhood development emphasis: 0-3 years: at home 3-5 years: pre-school Certified child daycare service accessibility Adult education – minimum GED/HS equivalent for 18-55 year old population without a High School diploma, emphasize reading and comprehension @ or > 9 th grade Review with school district administrators the secondary curriculum to insure core competencies: reading, math, and critical thinking to improve problem solving skills relevant to business Prioritize post secondary training accessibility, learning “no wrong door” approach to life long Enhance the linkages between education, workforce and economic development: must have jobs available to those persons who both qualify and are actively seeking employment Measure outcomes, demand accountability on behalf of individuals, the at-large community, and institutions Adjust the process to enable responding even more effectively [as knowledge and skills improve] to changing local and regional circumstances
– – – – –
Where to Begin?
Acknowledge the problem(s) and understand their factual basis; seek to build community consensus as a foundation for future problem solving, accept responsibility locally for finding and implementing correct solutions Identify and raise up real community champions - persons committed to positive community change, ignoring who or what organization gets the credit Build strong, community.
sustainable Example: outcome-based Education-friendly developed by Clemson University.
partnerships community within model the being Recognize and accept the fact that there are no quick fixes, but consistent predictable progress is what is called for Find common ground and understanding between the races and different ethnic groups. From a geographic community perspective we are all in the same boat, floating in a global economic ocean. There are other boats there also. All are subject to the same winds, waves, the heat of the sun and the cold of the night. Those communities that have accepted leaders and choose to work together for the good of the whole, will not only survive, but will prosper!
Others will, over time, fade away to a lesser existence.
economic reality of the 21st century.
This is the
RULES
1. Get to the table and stay at the table
2.
“You are entitled to your own opinions, but not to your own facts.”
3.
Be prepared to test the facts that are presented or bring yours.
Enjoy the benefits of the information age. Get the best facts, analyze,
4.
interpret and develop best practices for applying the information.
Politics – the art of compromise – within the context of the intended direction, must have a “short game” and a “long game.”
5.
Be prepared to compromise if it enables you to relocate to a stronger position.
TOOLS 1.
2.
3.
Advocacy
– proactive engagement within the context of the “Rules”.
Investment
versus “expenditures” mindset - expect a return.
Engagement
– meaningful dialogue – give and take with a
4.
deliberate message and a time to listen.
Partnerships
– essential in today’s fiscal and multi special interest business environment.
Level 1: Working together toward an outcome of common interest.
Level 2: Policy of joint investment with specific, but realistic outcome expectations.
“If a nation expects to be ignorant and free,” Thomas Jefferson wrote in 1816, “it expects what never was and never will be.”
Richard Stengel, Managing Editor
TIME
, Oct. 2, 2006
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