Transcript Police
Session IX: Presentation 1. What is intelligence? 2. What is the purpose of intelligence services? 3. What are the activities of intelligence services? 4. What types of intelligence services exist? 5. How is intelligence produced? 6. How to establish control and oversight over intelligence services? 1 What is intelligence? = unbiased information relevant to a government‘s formulation and implementation of policy to further its national security interests and to deal with risks, dangers, and threats from actual or potential adversaries = to find out intentions, capabilities, plans for action of actual or potential opponents as well as their organization, resources, means, methods, communications and activities Potential or actual opponents do their best to keep this type of information secret, and to engage in disinformation, denial, deception, subversion and other clandestine activities 2 What is intelligence? Multitude of definitions http://intellit.muskingum.edu/whatis_folder/whatisintelintro.html In general usage, intelligence denotes 5 things: 1. 2. A particular knowledge The type of organization producing that knowledge 3. The activities pursued by such organizations 4. The process guiding these activities 5. The products resulting from these activities and processes 3 What is the purpose of intelligence? Ensure early warning Provide long-term expertise Support the national decision- and policymaking process Support national and international crisis management Support national defense and, in case of conflict and war, military operations Maintain and protect secrets 4 Raison d’être for intelligence … to find and interpret data and information concerning national security that the government needs, but cannot obtain from the media, other government entities or from commercial sources better, more safely, or more cheaply 5 The scope of intelligence Risks, dangers and threats: External from hostile states and non-state actors Internal against the ability to govern, the use of violence to change policies, or exclude from the body politic members of a given ethnical, racial, or religious group 6 The activities of intelligence Collection Gathering of raw data and information through espionage, technical means, and exploitation of ‘open sources’ Analysis and Synthesis Process to make judgments and estimates since collected information is fragmentary, ambiguous, and susceptible to divergent interpretations Counterintelligence Protection of society and intelligence against harm that might be inflicted by hostile intelligence services, through defensive and offensive measures, counterespionage, and deception Covert action To influence clandestinely events and developments abroad directly through deniable actions of persuasion, propaganda and paramilitary operations 7 Level of abstraction Information process flow Wisdom Knowledge effectively applied Knowledge Information understood and explained Information Data placed in context indexed and organized Data Measurements and observations Physical process Application Process applying knowledge to effectively implement plan or action to achieve desired goal or end state Understanding Process of comprehending static and dynamic relationship between sets of information and the process of synthesizing models to explain those relationships Organization Process of aligning transforming, filtering, sorting, indexing and storing data elements in relational context for subsequent retrieval Observation Process of collecting and dispatching quantitative measurements to appropriate processing Processes Leadership Decision making Decision aiding Inference (Induction, Deduction, Abduction) Reasoning Uncertainty management Alignment Correlation association Extrapolation Deconflicting Preposessing Calibration Filtering Indexing Sensing Collection Measurement Message sparsing Data acquisition 8 What types of intelligence services exist? External or Foreign Intelligence Services Internal or Domestic Intelligence Services, often also called Security Services Military or Defense Intelligence Services Criminal Intelligence Services Special Branches for intelligence collection (for SIGINT e.g. the US NSA, the UK’s GCHQ, the Russian FAPSI, and for IMINT e.g. the US NGA and the NRO that operates satellites) 9 Intelligence organization External or Foreign Intelligence Service producing intelligence relevant to external security and for warning – requires knowledge of the risks, dangers, threats, and opportunities, and about the likelihood of events and outcomes Internal or Domestic Intelligence Service producing intelligence relevant to internal security: for the protection of the state, its constitutional order, the society, and the integrity of its territory, air- and seaspace from foreign influenced activities such as subversion, espionage, sabotage, and politically motivated violence 10 Intelligence organization Purposes and targets of foreign intelligence and domestic or security intelligence collection differ. So too do the nature and extent of the risks to which they give rise. It is important that the management, control and accountability arrangements reflect these differences. Because of the intrusive nature of the powers of internal intelligence services, and the fact that collection is executed domestically, potentially against the own citizens, domestic or security intelligence requires stricter controls to ensure that domestic security and safety are appropriately balanced against the rights of individual citizens and residents 11 Intelligence organization Military or Defense Intelligence Services producing intelligence relevant for defense planning, the armed forces, and support to military operations Criminal Intelligence Services produce intelligence on organized crime groups, corruption, and criminal activities with an aim to prosecution 12 Intelligence organization Distinction between external and internal has never been absolute Traditional limits between external, internal, and also criminal intelligence are becoming increasingly blurred, hence artificial and questionable, since there is convergence, notably in countering terrorism, organized crime, and proliferation This is why smaller countries with fewer resources might prefer to have just 1 intelligence organization This avoids wasting efforts, resources and time; solves the risk of unhealthy competition between the different agencies; simplifies contacts, intelligence exchange, and cooperation with foreign intelligence services; facilitates high subordination of intelligence in the state’s hierarchy and also coordination efforts and cooperation with other ministries and agencies; and alleviates control and oversight of intelligence Among others, the Spanish CNI, the Dutch AIDV, the Turkish MIT, and OSA of Bosnia-Herzegovina are ‘fused’ intelligence agencies 13 Major categories of nation-state intelligence Focus Object of analysis Reporting cycle Strategic and national intelligence (for national decision-makers & policymakers) Understanding of current and Foreign Policy Infrequent year/month future status + behavior of foreign Political posture long-term estimates & nations + non-state actors National stability projections months/years Socioeconomics Estimates of the state of global Cultural ideologies long-term analysis activities Foreign relations months/years Science & Technology Indications & Warnings of threats Intentions frequent status reports weekly/daily Military operational intelligence (for military leadership) Understanding of military Order of battle powers, OB, future potential, Military doctrine technological maturity Science & Technology Command structure C4IRS + Force strength Force status + intent Military tactical intelligence (for commanders and units) Real-time understanding of Military platforms military units, force structure + Force + operations current behavior in the field Courses of action Continually updated status databases I&W hours/days Crisis analysis daily/hourly Command & fire support Situational awareness Applications min/hours 14 Traditional and new intelligence Traditional Focus New Focus A few large nation-state threats Threats caused by continuity of world affairs Many diverse and empowered nonstate actor threats Threats resulting from discontinuities in world affairs Centralized intelligence Focus on collection and secret sources Distributed intelligence Focus on analysis, collaboration, open and closed sources Targets are known, continuous, predictable Targets unknown, discontinuous, and unpredictable Intelligence management on tactical strategic, operational, measurable objectives Intelligence management on Hierarchical analysis organization and control Networked analysis organization and collaboration Focus on intelligence as product Focus on intelligence as a service 15 anticipatory, adaptive objectives The intelligence cycle Intelligence products Finished Intelligence Intelligence consumers Consumer requirements Dissemination Planning and direction Analysis-synthesis production Plans Processed information Processing Raw Intelligence data Collection 16 Planning and direction Involves management of entire intelligence effort, from identification of the need for data that is derived from threat assessment or the priority listing of yet unsolved strategy and policy issues, deciding which nations or groups abroad and at home warrant intelligence surveillance, to the final delivery of intelligence product to the customer Process initiated by requests or requirements for intelligence based on the ultimate needs of the customer – the President, Prime Minister, National Security Council, ministers or other government agencies Requests are parsed into information required, then to data that must be collected to estimate or infer required answers Data requirements are used to establish a plan of collection, which details elements of data needed and the targets − people, places, and things – from which data may be obtained 17 Collection Establish collection plan Tasking of human and technical sources of collection to collect required data and information All collection disciplines should be engaged against the same target The sources and methods are among the most fragile – and most highly protected – elements of the process 18 Intelligence collection categories OSINT Open source intelligence HUMINT Human intelligence SIGINT Signals intelligence MASINT Measurements and signatures intelligence IMINT Imagery intelligence CNE Computer network exploitation 19 OSINT Foreign radio and television news sources Foreign printed materials: studies, books, magazines, periodicals, journals Gray literature – printed and electronic Openly available reports Diplomatic + Attaché reporting HF radio, telecom, Internet conversations Foreign network computer sources Reports and forecast from businessmen, travelers, universities, think tanks, etc 20 HUMINT Reports from agents and spies abroad Reports from residents of intelligence services Debriefings of defectors, turn-coats, walk-ins Interrogation of prisoners and criminals Information gleaned from foreign residents Discussions with personnel in foreign nations Reports from counterintelligence operations Messages from friendly third-party sources 21 SIGINT Data and information collection through intercepts of radio, radar, or other electronic emissions, including laser, visible light, and electro optics 5 subsets of SIGINT collection disciplines: COMINT communications traffic monitoring ELINT electromagnetic signals monitoring externals: events, activities, relationships, frequency of occurrence, modes, sequences, patterns, signatures internals: contents CRYPINT decryption of ciphered messages FISINT foreign instrumentation signals intelligence TELINT telemetry, beacons, video links, etc 22 MASINT Exploitation of: physical properties: nuclear, biological, chemical, and materials composition multi- and hyperspectral imagery data derived from analysis of emitted and reflected energy across the spectrum of light: radio frequencies, infrared, UV, lasers, electronic mechanical sound, shock waves, acoustics magnetic properties vibration and motion 23 IMINT Imagery − also referred to as PHOTINT Air and space imagery Satellite signals and data streams received and reconstructed as images from reflections of several bands across the spectrum of light – some visible, some invisible, like from IR or UV spectral analysis Photography, film, video and high-definition TV and other image-capturing technologies from aircraft and UAV Used for surveillance, monitoring, weather forecast to earth mapping Terrestrial and video imagery 24 CNE Computer network exploitation Network analysis and monitoring Message interception Traffic analysis Computer intrusion Penetration Exploitation of data-banks 25 Processing Conversion of vast amount of data collected to a more suitable form for production – machine and foreign language translation, decryption, rendering texts or pictures readable, etc Indexing and sorting of data by subject matter and data reduction – interpretation of information stored on film and tape through highly refined photographic and electronic processes − and organizing of data in an information base, making it available for rapid computer retrieval Progress on meeting the requirements of the collection plan is monitored and tasking may be refined on the basis of received data 26 Analysis and Synthesis Intelligence = Knowledge of the hidden + foreknowledge of the unpredictable The prelude to decision and action by national decision-makers, policymakers, military leadership Knowledge that helps consumers and clients to consider alternative options and outcomes Process of collection of facts, their analysis, quick and clear evaluations, production of assessments and warnings, and timely dissemination to consumers Analytical process that must be rigorous, timely, and relevant to policy needs and concerns 27 Analysis and Synthesis Vast majority of collected information is fragmentary, ambiguous, and susceptible to widely divergent interpretation Thus, process of collation, analysis and evaluation of all available raw and «allsource» information and its transformation into intelligence is vital to make judgments about intentions, capabilities and actions of opponents Best performed close to users of product 28 Dissemination Finished Intelligence disseminated to consumers in a variety of forms – reports to oral briefings − and formats: from dynamic operating pictures to formal reports to policymakers 3 categories distinguished by past, present, and future focus: Current intelligence: news-like reports describing recent events or Indications & Warnings Basic intelligence: complete description of a specific situation (Order-of-Battle, political situation, etc) Intelligence estimates: predicting feasible future outcomes as result of current situation, constraints, and possible influences 29 2 phases mostly overlooked in the process Consumption & feedback How, and in which form, policymakers consume intelligence and the degree to which intelligence is used are important issues Relationship with decision-makers should be an active and not a passive one = dialogue between consumer and producer However, objectivity demands a certain distance and a willingness to consider all variables – not just the ones the analyst or his customer has deemed most important in the past Customers should give producers some sense of how well their requirements are being met and discuss any adjustments that need to be made to any parts of the 30 process Core mission of products Support of security policy and foreign policy Detection of activities that threaten security and national interests Ascertain superiority in information warfare Support to defense & homeland defense planning Support for military operations Provide intelligence on economic matters that could affect national interests and trade negotiations Support to monitoring of treaties, other agreements, embargoes, etc 31 Intelligence products Warnings and warning reports Current situation reports Analyses Briefings Assessments Estimates Research – in-depth study of an issue = tailored output that meets the specific user needs, is accurate, timely, and persuades through analytic tradecraft 32 Products of internal intelligence Espionage Sabotage and subversion Terrorism Political, ethnic, and religious extremism Organized crime Corruption Narcotics production and trafficking Money faking and money laundering Proliferation Illegal arms dealing and smuggling Illegal immigration Electronic attacks, hacking & child-pornography 33 Products should contain: What is known – the facts How it is known – the sources where possible What drives judgment – linchpin assumptions The impact if the drivers change – alternative outcomes And what remains unknown Overarching goal: to minimize the uncertainty with which policymakers must grapple in making decisions about national security and foreign policy Must help to make sense of complex issues and to call attention to emerging problems or threats Important: not only determine what is accurate, but also what is relevant to the policymaker’s needs and aspirations 34 Accountability The obligation to demonstrate, and be responsible for, performance in the light of agreed expectations Prerequisites: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Clear and agreed roles and responsibilities Clear and agreed expectations of what is to be done and how, what is not to be done, and what is to be achieved Performance expectations that are balanced by the relevant capacities of each party Timely and credible reporting of performance achieved in the light of expectations Review and feedback on the performance reported, such that achievements are recognized and necessary corrections made 35 Control and Supervision of Intelligence Services Regardless of the particular form of control adopted in democracies, most relevant democratic control of intelligence services and their activities is exercised by executive, legislative and judicial entities Every element plays its specific role within the whole package of control, accountability and oversight The purpose is to provide assurance of legality, proportionality and propriety for activities that are necessarily conducted in secret 36 Democratic control of intelligence Executive control Legislative oversight Judicial control and supervision Informal and indirect supervision by the public 37 5 basic principles for intelligence services 1. Provide effective intelligence essential to the security of the nation 2. Have an adequate legal framework 3. Have an effective management system 4. Be effectively accountable 5. Be open to internal and external review and to parliamentary oversight 38 Executive control and supervision Executive control = the decisive role The higher the echelon of executive control and supervision, and the greater the seriousness with which it executes its task, the lesser the likelihood of problems accruing to the government from judicial supervision and legislative oversight It is the executive which is fully responsible for the proper controls and auditing of intelligence services, thus creating the necessary base for transparency and parliamentary oversight 39 Executive control and supervision Control in the narrowest sense: ensuring that specific procedures are followed Control in the broadest sense: creating the conditions that lead to the achievement of agreed standards of performance as well as compliance with law and policy Control may be exercised by both formal and informal means Formal means: to ensure conformity of activities with policy and procedures, proper authorizations, funding, audit, and review Informal means: focus on ethics, values, and leadership 40 Executive control and supervision Policymaker direction = both the foundation and the catalyst for the work of intelligence If intelligence does not receive direction, the chances of resources being misdirected and wasted increase Intelligence services need to know what information to collect and when it is needed They need to know if their products are useful and how they may be improved to better serve policymakers 41 Executive control and supervision Main tasks of executive control: Make sure that intelligence functions properly That intelligence ask the right questions Collect the right information Respond to decisionmaker’s needs Are rigorous in analysis Have on hand the right capabilities 42 Executive control and supervision Of particular importance for executive control is: To identify intelligence failures To take action to prevent them from occurring in the future 43 Executive control and supervision The misuse of intelligence services by government for its own political ends must be excluded. To this end: intelligence services should be at arms length from policymakers should not be affiliated with any party must be neutral or depoliticized 44 Control, supervision, and oversight of intelligence services Internal & external control and supervision can take any number of forms Inspector Generals Staff capacity of Minister Separate Committees for Intelligence Supervision and for Intelligence Policy Review Audit Ombudsman 45 An external audit serves 3 purposes: To assess compliance with the law, ensuring that those given executive authority exercise this authority with their assigned responsibilities: to review behavior, identify poor administration, and who should be held accountable To assess performance in public management in order to contribute to organizational learning Compliance auditing: scrutinizing accounts to see if money has been spent as allocated, and to assess the efficiency and effectiveness of financial allocations 46 Ombudsman Can be given powers to investigate alleged violation of human rights by intelligence services Negotiate with civil servants Report to legislature and make proposals Inform the public about the results of inquiries 47 Legislative oversight Parliamentary Oversight Preferably Special or Select Committees of legislators, including opposition, who pass background security check, take secrecy oath, and are neither associated with the services nor with those to whom the services report Must have power and will to deter violations of law or failure of performance Should have adequately trained staff 48 Legislative oversight In all aspects of governance and expenditure of public money, Parliaments have an essential role in monitoring and scrutinizing policy and budgets The budget represents the culmination of intelligence requirements and, at the same time, the contribution required from the taxpayer – the electorate at large to whom the parliamentarians are most directly responsible 49 Legislative oversight The further role of Parliament: 1. Oversight 2. Giving a second opinion 3. Ensuring transparency 4. Providing a link between intelligence and security services and the public at large 50 Legislative oversight Oversight = a process, not an event Should be proactive and reactive Proactive in anticipating issues Reactive in initiating hearings and inquiries when problems or scandals occur 51 Legislative oversight Monitoring implementation of legislation = goes to the heart of the oversight role: Determine whether legislation is effective and having the desired results Insuring that the laws give government and civil society sufficient powers to supervise intelligence 52 Legislative oversight Oversight involves 2 elements: 1. Holding government accountable for: - the intelligence funds it requires - the way it spends these funds 2. Influencing the implementation of intelligence and security policy 53 Legislative oversight Giving a second opinion Parliamentarians have a strong sense of what people will accept. Some have considerable foreign policy expertise. Thus, Parliament can provide a second opinion in – closed – sessions of oversight committees On sensitive matters which can involve great costs and dangers for the nation, a second opinion can be vital 54 Legislative oversight Ensuring Transparency Through debates, hearings and reports, legislators can make intelligence more transparent While proceedings are secret, much information is disclosed to the public through annual reports The role of the Committees is to balance security and liberty. But care must be taken that disclosure does not damage the ability of intelligence services to accomplish their mission 55 Legislative oversight Providing a link between intelligence and security services and the public at large As a general rule, intelligence should: Keep Oversight Committee fully and currently informed of activities Provide Committee upon request with any information or document in possession Report information on activities that are illegal or improper, and corrective actions taken or planned 56 Critical issues of legislative oversight To keep a balance between independence and criticism and the maintenance of a working relationship between the Committee and the intelligence service Intelligence is one of the only areas of government activity where risk-taking and innovative thinking should be encouraged Intelligence is a domain that relies heavily on the professional judgment and candor of intelligence personnel And intelligence is highly dependent upon cooperation of other agencies, foreign governments, and individuals 57 Critical issues of legislative oversight What the overseers do in public has effect beyond the circumstances of a particular inquiry or investigation While the Committee is naturally eager to demonstrate that their oversight is effective, they must always be aware of the inherent danger that statements and actions might distort the public’s perception of intelligence, create an unfavorable impression among potential sources, agencies of cooperation, foreign services and governments, and undermine the moral of intelligence personnel Thus, legislative oversight has to be determinedly non-partisan and discreet, and hearings should be fair Oversight should be more inquisitorial than adversarial And Committee should broaden range of oversight beyond the 58 intelligence service to users of intelligence Control, supervision, and oversight of intelligence services Judicial control and supervision Must review and interpret the constitutionality of all laws Must set limits intended to achieve the proper balance between the protection of individual rights and the acquisition of essential information Must review the warrants issued by ministers 59 Judicial control and supervision “Best practices” are: That intelligence services consider themselves to be bound by the Constitution and laws, including treaty obligations and international law, in the same way as they are bound by executive orders, guidelines, and government directives To establish guidelines for internal intelligence, ideally approved by the Attorney General, that govern collection, analysis, and dissemination of information on citizens and resident aliens To have guidelines for external intelligence that limit use of personnel from humanitarian organizations, ICRC and national Red Cross organizations, aid and development workers, clergy, media personnel, etc.60 Informal and indirect supervision by the public Civil society organizations: NGOs Lobbies Pressure and human rights groups Political parties Professional, cultural, and other advocacy or special interest associations The media 61 Professionalization Encouraged through a number of measures: Open and careful recruitment, training, assignment career planning, and inspiring leadership Establishment of a single intelligence school providing a basic curriculum for candidates from all services, serving the 3 goals: - conveying ideals of professionalism - inculcating devotion to public service - enhancing cooperation among the services 62 Professionalization Assignments and promotion must reflect an intelligence officer’s willingness to operate both within democratically chosen fields of national security concern and in democratically acceptable ways New inspiring managers reflecting the new professionalism must be selected and held accountable for motivating personnel; inculcating action for the collective interest of the nation; imposing high standards of performance; personal compliance with strict moral obligations and ethical rules of the intelligence profession; and discipline – including firing or transfer in case of misbehavior 63 Good governance equity pluralism participation partnership transparency subsidiarity accountability human rights efficiency sustainability rule of law effectiveness responsiveness 64 Remember The central dilemma for intelligence around the world concerns how to act as a protectorate of democracy, whilst at the same time engaging in secret operations that cannot be disclosed to the public In all democratic societies, all services are forced to confront the problem of achieving a balance between secrecy and openness Maintaining a degree of transparency is the best way to ensure democratic accountability and control, which are necessary for raising public awareness and support for intelligence 65 Remember Public intelligence drives public policy The new craft of intelligence recognizes that in a democracy, it is the educated public that must be addressed and kept informed The issuance of annual strategic threat assessment and – when needed – operational threat assessments to the public underlie all other classified endeavors 66