Transcript Faculty Day Presentation – September 2, 2009

Using External
Environmental Scanning
and Forecasting to Improve
Strategic Planning
Joel D. Lapin
Planning
A
formalized procedure by which decisions
are made and integrated in organizations.
Strategic Planning
A
systematic and ongoing activity that an
organization uses to anticipate and
respond to major decisions facing it during
a three- to five-year period beyond the
present.
 An “outside-in” approach that answers the
question – what do we do?
Strategic Planning
 Characteristics








Systematic and ongoing
Anticipates and responds
Three to five years beyond present
Focuses on external environment
Deals with “big” issues
Spans organizational boundaries
Deals with uncertainty
Values expert judgment
Operational Planning
An “inside-out” approach that answers the
question – how and when we do it?
 Characteristics









One- to two-year timeframe
Internally focused
Determined by strategic plan
Deals with micro issues
Tied to organizational units
Tied to budget/spending
Relatively certain
Highly participatory
Components of a Strategic Plan
– An ideal, credible, attractive, and
unique future image for an organization.
 Mission – A general statement of the
fundamental purpose of an organization
and the foundation for developing the
organizational goals and objectives.
 Goals – A broad statement that describes
ultimate ends and achievements for an
organization.
 Vision
External Environmental Scanning
and Forecasting
A
kind of radar to scan the world
systematically and signal the new, the
unexpected, the major, and the minor.
(Morrison and Held, 1989)
External Environmental Scanning
and Forecasting
 Scanning




involves the following:
Detecting changes in the external
environment
Defining the potential threats or opportunities
and potential changes for the organization
caused by these changes
Promoting a futures orientation in leadership
in the organization
Alerting leadership to trends and emerging
issues and their future direction
Environmental Scanner’s Role

When scanning ask if the items:






Represent events, trends, developments, or ideas
never before encountered
Contradict previous assumptions or beliefs about
what seems to be happening
Represent new twists to old arguments
Can be linked to other abstracts previously written or
seen
Have implications for the long-range program or
management of the organization
Contain polls or forecasts
• Morrison and Held, 1989
Purpose of Scanning
 The
purpose of external environmental
scanning and forecasting is to enable an
organization to develop or change a
strategic plan based upon external trends.
External Environmental Scanning
and Forecasting
 The
purpose of environmental scanning is
to give an organization a competitive edge
“When
the rate of change
outside exceeds the rate of
change inside, the end is in
sight.”
Jack Welch
External Environmental Scanning and
Forecasting and Its Role in a
Strategic Plan
Vision
Future Image –
What Should We
Be?
Mission
External
Environmental
Scanning &
Forecasting
Which Results
in Trend
Statements and
a List of Core
Trends
(Fundamental Purpose)
Who Are We?
What Do We Do?
For Whom Do We Do It?
Why Do We Do It?
Institutional Goals
What should the college do to
address the most consequential
trends in its external environment?
Develop
Operational Plan
Goals determined after full and
honest discussion of SWOT
(strengths, weaknesses,
opportunities, threats)
Administration
Select “X” number of manageable
achievable goals to be accomplished
with “X” year(s)
Institutional Adv.
Instruction
Student Services
Document
and
Evaluate
Key
Results
Recommendations
(Monitor External
Environment)
Trend
A
statement of the general direction of
change – usually gradual, long-term
change—in the forces shaping the
future of an organization, region, nation,
or society in general. Trends are often
longitudinal in that they have been
observed over a time frame.
--Morrison and Held, 1989
Table 3. Occupations with the largest job growth, 2006-16
Employment
Change
Most significant source of
postsecondary education or
training2
2006
2016
Number
Percent
Registered nurses
2,505
3,092
587
23.5
Associate degree
Retail salespersons
4,477
5,034
557
12.4
Short-term on-the-job training
Customer service
representatives
2,202
2,747
545
24.8
Moderate-term on-the-job training
Combined food preparation &
serving workers, including fast
food
2,503
2,955
452
18.1
Short-term on-the-job training
Office clerks, general
3,200
3,604
404
12.6
Short-term on-the-job training
Personal & home care aides
767
1,156
389
50.6
Short-term on-the-job training
Home health aides
787
1,171
384
48.7
Short-term on-the-job training
Postsecondary teachers
1,672
2,054
382
22.9
Doctoral degree
Janitors & cleaners, except
maids & housekeeping cleaners
2,387
2,732
345
14.5
Short-term on-the-job training
Nursing aides, orderlies, &
attendants
1,447
1,711
264
18.2
Postsecondary vocational award
Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Occupational employment projections to 2016” November 2007 Monthly Labor Review
Table 3. Occupations with the largest job growth, 2006-16
Employment
Change
Most significant source of
postsecondary education or
training2
2006
2016
Number
Percent
Bookkeeping, accounting, &
auditing clerks
2,114
2,377
264
12.5
Moderate-term on-the-job training
Waiters & Waitresses
2,361
2,615
255
10.8
Short-term on-the-job training
Child care workers
1,388
1,636
248
17.8
Short-term on-the-job training
Executive secretaries &
administrative assistants
1,618
1,857
239
14.8
Work experience in a related
occupation
507
733
226
44.6
Bachelor's degree
Accountants & auditors
1,274
1,500
226
17.7
Bachelor's degree
Landscaping & groundskeeping
workers
1,220
1,441
221
18.1
Short-term on-the-job training
Elementary school teachers,
except special education
1,540
1,749
209
13.6
Bachelor's degree
Receptionists & information
clerks
1,173
1,375
202
17.2
Short-term on-the-job training
Truck drivers, heavy & tractortrailer
1,860
2,053
193
10.4
Moderate-term on-the-job training
Computer software engineers,
applications
Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Occupational employment projections to 2016,” November 2007 Monthly Labor Review
Table 3. Occupations with the largest job growth, 2006-16
Employment
Change
Most significant source of
postsecondary education or
training2
2006
2016
Number
Percent
Maids & housekeeping
cleaners
1,470
1,656
186
12.7
Short-term on-the-job training
Security guards
1,040
1,216
175
16.9
Short-term on-the-job training
Carpenters
1,462
1,612
150
10.3
Long-term on-the-job training
Management analysts
678
827
149
21.9
Bachelor's or higher degree,
plus work
Medical assistants
417
565
148
35.4
Moderate-term on-the-job training
Computer systems analysts
504
650
146
29.0
Bachelor's degree
1,391
1,5331
140
10.1
Moderate-term on-the-job training
Network systems & data
communications analysts
262
402
140
53.4
Bachelor's degree
Food preparation workers
902
1,040
138
15.3
Short-term on-the-job training
1,312
1,449
137
10.4
Short-term on-the-job training
Maintenance & repair workers,
general
Teacher assistants
Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Occupational employment projections to 2016,” November 2007 Monthly Labor Review
Table 2. Fastest growing occupations, 2006-16
Employment
2006
Change
2016
Number
Percent
Most significant source of
postsecondary education or
training2
Network systems and data
communications analysts
262
402
140
53.4
Bachelor's degree
Personal & home care aides
767
1,156
389
50.6
Short-term on-the-job training
Home health aides
787
1,171
384
48.7
Short-term on-the-job training
Computer software engineers,
applications
507
733
226
44.6
Bachelor's degree
Veterinary technologists &
technicians
71
100
29
41.0
Associate degree
Personal finance advisors
176
248
72
41.0
Bachelor's degree
2
3
1
39.8
Postsecondary vocational award
417
565
148
35.4
Moderate-term on-the-job training
Veterinarians
62
84
22
35.0
First professional degree
Substance abuse & behavioral
disorder counselors
83
112
29
34.3
Bachelor's degree
Makeup artists, theatrical &
performance
Medical assistants
Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Occupational employment projections to 2016,” November 2007 Monthly Labor Review
Table 2. Fastest growing occupations, 2006-16
Employment
2006
2016
Change
Number
Percent
Most significant source of
postsecondary education
or training2
38
51
13
34.3
Postsecondary vocational
award
Financial analysts
221
295
75
33.8
Bachelor's degree
Social & human service
assistants
339
453
114
33.6
Moderate-term on-the-job
training
9
12
3
33.6
Moderate-term on-the-job
training
60
80
20
32.4
Associate degree
Skin care specialists
Gaming surveillance officers &
gaming investigators
Physical therapist assistants
285
376
91
32.0
Moderate-term on-the-job
training
13
17
4
30.7
Bachelor's degree
Dental hygienists
167
217
50
30.1
Associate degree
Mental health counselors
100
130
30
30.0
Master's degree
Mental health & substance abuse
social workers
122
159
37
29.9
Master's degree
Pharmacy technicians
Forensic science technicians
Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Occupational employment projections to 2016,” November 2007 Monthly Labor Review
Table 2. Fastest growing occupations, 2006-16
Employment
2006
Marriage & family therapists
Change
2016
Number
Percent
Most significant source of
postsecondary education or
training2
25
32
7
29.8
Master's degree
Dental assistants
280
362
82
29.2
Moderate-term on-the-job training
Computer systems analysts
504
650
146
29.0
Bachelor's degree
Database administrators
119
154
34
28.6
Bachelor's degree
Computer software engineers,
system software
350
449
99
28.2
Bachelor's degree
Gaming & sports book writers &
runners
18
24
5
28.0
Short-term on-the-job training
Environmental science &
protection technicians, including
health
36
47
10
28.0
Associate degree
Manicurists & pedicurists
78
100
22
27.6
Postsecondary vocational award
173
220
47
27.1
Master's degree
66
83
18
27.0
Master's degree
Physical therapists
Physician assistants
Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Occupational employment projections to 2016,” November 2007 Monthly Labor Review
Buying Time
Busy People Becoming
Night Owls to Get
Chores Done
Article by Eric L. Wee,
Washington Post, December 19, 1994
Identifying and Defining a Trend

“What is true about futures research in general
and was validated in the scans is that trends do
not speak for themselves. They do not jump out
of a pile of data. Identifying and defining a trend,
testing it, and evaluating it is a partially creative
and partially empirical process. The statement
of a trend and its direction evolves out of
accumulated information. The way in which that
statement can be framed can be modified to fit
the circumstances, to fit the client(s) needs, and
to be salient, uniform, and in a style compatible
with other trends.”
--Joseph F. Coates
Event
A
one-time or non-repeatable
phenomenon usually visible or dramatic,
which has a short-term effect on a system.
An event focuses attention of an
occurrence at one point in time. In
contrast with a trend, an event can be
viewed as a cross-sectional phenomenon.
--Morrison and Held, 1989
Emerging Issue
A
potential controversy that arises out of a
trend or event, which may require some
form of response.
-- Morrison and Held, 1989
Wild Card
A
change in the external environment
having a low probability of occurrence, but
an inordinately high impact if it does.
--Rockfellow,
1994
Scanning Abstract Form
Author and Title
Source
Taxonomy or Change area
Identify the change or the most important idea that indicates change:
Probability of occurring in the next 1 – 2 years: ____low ____ moderate ___high
Probability of occurring in the next 3 – 5 years: ____low ____ moderate ___high
Implications for communities served: How might the change affect people and
groups in communities the college serves?
Potential consequences/impact on the community:
___ minor ___ moderate ___major ___ unknown at this time
Implications for college: How might the change affect the college’s programs,
student services, faculty and staff, funding, etc.?
Potential consequences/impact on the college:
___ minor ___ moderate ___major ___ unknown at this time
What might the change mean for future learning – skills, knowledge, behaviors?
Joliet Junior College
Joliet, IL
January 2008
Core Trends


Competition Trend #5—Institutions that have the
capacity to offer online courses will likely capture a larger
share of the enrollment market, particularly those that
are creative at creating pedagogies and provide
evidence of environments that enhance learning.
Education Trend #7—Evidence as to how prepared high
school students are for college is mixed. Two trends are
evident in this area; (1) There is evidence of an
increasing gap between high school and college
expectations for learning and curriculum, and (2) Many
students defined as underprepared have attended
community colleges and there is no evidence to suggest
this will not continue.
Core Trends

Labor Force Trend #5—The largest number of
jobs will be created in health care related
occupations over the next three to five years.
 Demographics Trend #2—Between 2005 and
2015, the minority population in the JJC district
is projected to grow by 58.2% from 173,382 to
274,350 and will represent 30.7% of the district’s
population.
 Demographic Trend #5---The population for the
Joliet Junior College District 525 is predicted to
increase from 868,631 in 2006 to 1,088,146 by
2001, which reflects an increase of 25.3%.
Core Trends

Demographics Trend #1—Between 2000 and
2030, Will County’s population is expected to
increase from 502,584 to 1,076,446 residents
(114% increase)
 Economics Trend #9—Through 2014, Will
County will experience a decrease in its
manufacturing economy. The economy will shift
to professional and business services, financial
activities, transportation and warehousing,
education, health care and hospitality.
Core Trends


Economics Trend # 11---The U.S., by far, consumes
more resources per person than any other large and
developed country in the world. Growing regions with
available natural resources and space, like the JJC
district, will likely want to incorporate sustainable efforts
in planning and development.
Politics Trend # 8---State commitments to fund higher
education in the near future will be much less reliable
than in the past. The revenue picture is difficult to
predict, particularly in Illinois. Still, community college
funding structures are built upon historical assumptions
about revenue generation and will likely need to be
changed.
Core Trends
 Social
Values Trend # 6---The necessity
for a post-secondary education for
success in the workplace will continue to
become more prevalent over the next 3-5
years or longer, especially among the
growing Hispanic population and other
underrepresented groups.
Core SWOT Analysis
 Strengths



Low tuition and reasonable cost
Growth in District
Strong JJC Foundation
 Weaknesses


Lack of online classes
Class scheduling
Core SWOT Analysis

Opportunities




Partnerships
Distance education
Growth
Threats



Competition
Lower/lack of state and federal funding
Underprepared students
Joliet Junior College Strategic Plan
February 26, 2008
 Vision

Joliet Junior College , the nation’s first public
community college, will be a leader in teaching and
learning, and the first choice for postsecondary
education.
 Mission

Joliet Junior College enriches people’s lives through
affordable, accessible and quality programs and
services. The College provides transfer and career
preparation, training and workforce development, and
a lifetime of learning to the diverse community it
serves.
Strategic Goals
Improve student success with an emphasis on
enrollment, retention, graduation, and transfer
rates and effective teaching strategies and
learning outcomes. (Trends: Competition #5,
Education # 7, Demographics # 12,5, Social
Values 6).
2. Increase institutional sustainability with an
emphasis on obtaining necessary resources,
state-of-the heart facilities, professional
development, and environmental stewardship.
(Trends: Politics 8, Economics 11,
Demographics 1,5).
1.
Strategic Goals
3. Increase and improve partnerships with
organizations that support the college’s
mission. (Trends: all core trends).
4. Utilize technology strategically to advance
teaching and learning, expand online and
alternative delivery methods, and
increase effective administrative and
support services. (Trends: Competition 5;
Labor Force 5; Demographics 1,2, 5;
Economics 9,11; Politics 8; Social Values
6).
Strategic Goals
5. Improve the success of minority,
underrepresented, and underprepared
student populations in addition to closing
the gap between high school and college
performance. (Trends: Social Values 6,
Demographics 2, Education 7).
6. Develop programs that anticipate and
respond to labor market demand.
(Trends: Labor Force 5, Economics 9,
Social Values 6).
North Harris Montgomery
Community College District
The Woodlands, TX
Workforce Development
Core Trends
 Advanced
Manufacturing # 2---Growth in
advanced manufacturing related to the oil
and gas industry is continuing in Harris
and Montgomery Counties to support the
exploration and production efforts in the
Deepwater Gulf of Mexico area.
Competitive Education # 8
 Accessibility
of classes, at times, locations
and formats attractive to the student, will
be a major factor in the continued growth
of for-profit education, although this growth
has moderated somewhat in the past five
years, due partially to legal/political
challenges for-profit companies are facing.
Demographics # 4
 While
the Texas population will increase in
the future, the Hispanic population will
evidence the fastest growth among
identified groups, and Anglos will evidence
the lowest growth among identified
groups.
Demographics # 7
 The
percentage of economically
disadvantaged students in the 11 school
districts served by the NHMCCD service
area has consistently increased for the last
five years, and is expected to continue for
the next three to five years.
Economics # 9
 The
result of expansion activities of
the Port of Houston and the Houston
Airport System will have an
increasing economic impact on the
Gulf Coast region as additional cargo
and passenger traffic, both
internationally and domestically, is
expected to grow for the next three to
five years.
Education # 9
 In
the next three to five years, career and
technical programs at the secondary level
will be recognized as critical for
postsecondary preparation and become a
priority for closing the nation’s skills gap.
Labor Force # 5
 Healthcare
occupations are expected to
produce the greatest number of jobs and
have the most significant rate of growth
over the next three to five years in the Gulf
Coast region.
Labor Force # 13
 In
the next three to five years, the
emerging labor force will have fewer
applied skills such as critical thinking and
teamwork as well as deficits in reading,
writing and math.
Politics # 3
 Funds
available from taxes will continue to
diminish, continuing the general trend of
the college district becoming more and
more dependent on its authority to levy tax
and to charge tuition and fees.
Social Values and Lifestyles # 12
 Boomers
will retire like no other generation
before them by continuing to work, having
multiple careers and pursuing educational
and leisure opportunities.
Core SWOT
 Strengths



Cost effective
Diverse and quality programs offered
Colleges attempt to serve needs of surrounding
community
 Weaknesses




Current facilities inadequate for expansion and growth
Ineffective marketing
Technological capabilities
Internal competition among colleges
Core SWOT

Opportunities





Collaboration with business, industry and education
Growing population and changing demographics
Outreach to new and underserved communities
Area tax valuation continues to grow at a strong rate
Threats




Decreased state funding
Increased competition with other institutions
Changing political climate
Widening gap between high school graduates and
college readiness
NHMCCD Workforce Development
Strategic Plan 2008-2011
June, 2007
Vision
 Creating

Careers
Building Partnerships
 Delivering Solutions
• Strengthening Communities
Mission
 Deliver
accessible, world-class education
to develop a skilled workforce for a
dynamic local, regional and global
economy.
Strategic Goals
1. Increase and strengthen partnerships with new and
underserved businesses, industries, educational
institutions and other workforce entities.
(Addresses core trends statements: Advanced
Manufacturing # 2, Economics # 9, Labor Force # 5, 13)
2. Increase the use of alternative instructional delivery to
anticipate and meet student and employer needs.
(Addresses core trend statements: Competitive Education
# 8, Social Values # 12, Labor Force # 13, Education #
9)
Strategic Goals
3. Increase outreach programs and services with special
emphasis on connecting underserved and underrepresented populations to career pathways and
transitions.
(Addresses core trend statements: Demographics # 4,and
7, Social Values and Lifestyles # 12, Education # 9)
4. Obtain funds to support and invest in new and revised
programs, facilities, faculty and technologies.
(Addresses core trend statements: Advanced
Manufacturing # 2, Economics # 9, Education # 9, Labor
Force #5 and 13, Politics # 3)
Strategic Goals
5. Create effective communication and marketing for all
workforce programs and services.
(Addresses all core trend statements)
6. Enhance the quality, accessibility and effectiveness of
student support programs and services.
(Addresses core trend statements: Competitive Education
# 8, Demographics # 4 and 7, Social Values and
Lifestyles # 12, Labor Force # 13, Education # 9)
 Note:
Although trend statements regarding
technology were not specifically chosen
during the core selection process, they are
addressed in one or more strategic goals.
State of Washington
State Board for Community and
Technical Colleges
Workforce Education Council
Environmental Scanning
Summary Trends Statements
Technology Trends



Open sourcing of computer software will lead to
increasing levels of shared programming and on-going
improvements.
Computer search engines will shift from retrospective
(information that is presently available) to prospective
(information that is not presently not available) search
and will impact our future online experience.
The rapid development and demand for wireless multitasked compact personal life-style communication
devices, providing connectivity services 24x7x365
worldwide, will continue to accelerate academic,
economic and technological challenges as well as
opportunities, for educating our workforce in a highly
competitive global marketplace.
Technology Trends

Amidst the ever-changing and rapid
advancements in technology the ability of
institutions to pay will remain a critical and
constant challenge.
 Organizations will be increasingly challenged to
adopt and adapt to technological advances in
three primary areas: development/training
demand; information technology roles and
hiring; and in the general field of information
technology.
 Demands for high speed and broad band use of
the Internet will be ever increasing.
Technology Trends

Integrating technology, especially radio
frequency identification (RFID), into business
organizations will largely determine their
prosperity and their ability to survive in a
competitive international marketplace.
 The fields of robotics, nanotechnology and
biotechnology (with nanotechnology
superseding biotechnology) are in their infancy
and will continue to impact those producing,
using and affected by these rapidly evolving
technologies.
Technology Trends
Protecting information from “hacker” attacks in a
culture of open access will continue to be a
challenge for business, government and schools
across the nation and around the world.
 Technology is the impetus for on-going
institutional change with respect to the delivery
of educational services, driven by the respective
needs of students, business, industry and the
community.

Economic Trends



The gap between the wealthy and those at the middle
and bottom levels of wealth will continue growing
nationally and in Washington State.
Present and future employment growth in Washington
State will remain concentrated in the service sectors
including health care, business and professional
services, and high-tech.
Many construction trade occupations, agricultural jobs,
and some manufacturing-related positions (i.e., luxury
boat building, food processing, winery operations,
pulp/paper/chemicals, and diversified aerospace) will
require personnel for projected labor shortages.
Economic Trends

The Internet and new emerging wireless
technologies will have a major effect on
Washington State’s economic infrastructure in
manufacturing, service delivery and
consumption because expected response time
is shorter, operations may become more
efficient, and communications are virtually
instantaneous.
 In the future, there will be less of a national
competitive economy and more of a global
competitive economy composed of regional
economies like those of Spokane, Puget Sound,
and Southwestern Washington State.
Economic Trends
With Washington State’s economy projected to
stay strong, the shift toward service occupations
and high-tech manufacturing with high skill
requirements is expected to continue.
 Washington State’s unemployment rate will
continue to be an average of 1% higher than the
national average due to:




Aerospace employment lagging compared to the
national business cycle
Seasonal nature of state’s agricultural sector
High rural unemployment rates, including traditionally
timber-dependent areas.
Economic Trends




Washington State will continue leading the nation in new
business creation, while increasingly heavy venture
capital investment in the state may help mitigate the
state’s historically high ranking in firm terminations.
The importance of information is driving the flattening of
organizational structures where subject matter expertise
is increasingly essential and this flattening is expected to
increase in the future.
Housing density will increase in urban centers, but not
necessarily provide affordable homes.
American society continues to be unable to respond to
the challenge of providing adequate health care for its
citizens.
Emerging Issue
 Alternative
energy industries will prosper if
Washington State supports effective
Economic Development incentives.
Political Trends

Projected demographic changes in the period
2005 – 2009 will require higher education to
compete for government resources requested
for corrections, medical assistance, long-term
care and K-12 education.
 Increasing public awareness and urgency
around environmental conservation and
stewardship will have an impact on government
regulation, business decisions and consumer
choices, especially choices in energy, fuel and
organic foods.
Political Trends

Continued union disaffiliation will change
organized labor’s large political influence in
Washington State which will also weaken what
has historically been a strong partner for
community colleges across the state.
 Health care provision and funding will continue
to be a major focus of policy makers.
 Increasing social and economic barriers will
restrict access to and from Washington State of
all transportation, goods, services and citizens.
Social, Values, and Lifestyles
Trends



Internet overuse (i.e., excessive use of chat rooms, web
surfing, instant messaging, gaming, gambling, etc.) is
expected to increase over the next 3 – 5 years, affecting
one’s ability to successfully manage one’s life.
From 1999 – 2004, roughly 35% of recently completing
high school students in Washington State did not
continue into higher education and this percentage is
expected to remain stable over the next 3 – 5 years.
Consumers will continue over the next 3 – 5 years to
expect more for less when purchasing goods and
services (e.g., minimal defects, large variety, timely
delivery/availability, and prompt follow-up and support
services).
Social, Values, and Lifestyles
Trends

The number and respective nature of the Ballot
Initiatives being submitted in Washington State
will remain high over the next 3 – 5 years,
suggesting that low level of trust for Washington
State government will continue.
 The number of children who at one point in their
childhood will live in a single parent family
household (currently = 19%) will continue to
increase over the next 3 – 5 years.
 In the next 3 – 5 years, the number of individuals
working during their retirement years will
increase.
Social, Values, and Lifestyles
Trends
Over the next 3 – 5 years, the number of
children raised in the foster care system,
emerging from that system without independent
living skills and the ability to cope with the
demands presented by organizations like highereducation institutions is expected to increase.
 Generation Y (born between 1981 and 1995)
members’ learning preferences include
emphasizing teamwork, experiential activities,
structure, and use of technology. The number of
Gen Y students will increase over the next 3 – 5
years.

Social, Values, and Lifestyles
Trends
Over the next 3 – 5 years, more people will
become mini-entrepreneurs by starting small
and micro businesses, becoming freelancers,
starting web-businesses, blogs, and other types
of small, entrepreneurial enterprises.
 Washington State leads the US in terms of the
percentage of people who say they have no
religion (although many believe in a god) and
this trend is expected to continue over the next 3
– 5 years.
 Over the next 3 – 5 years, participation in new
forms of voluntary associations online will
increase rapidly, i.e., e-communities.

Social, Values, and Lifestyles
Trends

Crime rates overall are declining and will
continue to decline over the next 3 – 5 years.
 Incarceration rates will continue to rise over the
next 3 – 5 years in Washington State.
 Due to changes in policy, drug crimes are
increasingly being handled in drug court where
the corrective-behavior plan involves
intervention from the health care system rather
than the criminal justice system. This is
expected to increase over the next 3 – 5 years.
Social, Values, and Lifestyles
Trends

Obesity is pervasive in society and the level of
obesity will increase over the next 3 – 5 years.
 Beginning in 2000, three unique generations in
the workplace and community and technical
college system are present. Each generation
has very unique values, expectations, wants,
desires, etc. and these may clash in the
workplace and classroom. This trend will
continue over the next 3 – 5 years.
Demographic Trends

Between 2005 and 2010, the number of poor
people in Washington State is projected to
exponentially increase to more than 20% of the
population or 1,329,963 people.
 Between 2005 and 2030, the demand for health
care and related services, especially geriatrics,
will increase and the costs for these services will
continue to rise dramatically.
 Population in the state of Washington will
continue to rise 100,000 a year between 2005
and 2010 when the population is projected to
reach 6,639,000. From 2010 – 2030 it is
expected to slow to a 1.2 percent growth or
approximately 75,000 per year.
Demographic Trends

Between 2005 and 2030, the Washington State
population, especially those under 25 years of
age, will become increasingly more diverse and
the largest increases in ethnic groups will be
Hispanics (242,863 to 487,703), those of two or
more races (100,769 to 240,281), and
Asian/Pacific Islanders (129,988 to 171,598).
 Between 2000 and 2010, the growth in the
number of households in the state of
Washington will grow proportionally to the
increase in the general population, and will not
evidence significant increases or decreases.
Educational Competition Trends
 Four
year institutions will continue to be a
key competitor with community and
technical colleges.
 Community and technical colleges are
becoming more vulnerable to competition
from for-profit institutions.
 Corporations do not recognize community
and technical colleges as a preferred
source for training.
Educational Competition Trends

Online training and education continues to
expand rapidly.
 Colleges are spending more resources and time
on transitional and developmental education
rather than advancing workforce skills which
ultimately compromises achievement of
economic development goals.
 Military students with their rich tuition dollars will
be a target of opportunity for postsecondary
training and education providers, including
private career schools.
Education Trends
Employers’ demand for highly educated
employees, with certifications and college
degrees, will continue to increase through 2012.
 A widening gap will continue to exist between
low literacy and non-native speaking workers
entering our system and the level of skills
required by our employers.
 As more students enter community and technical
colleges with a technology-enriched
background, the need for and expectation of
technology-enhanced learning experiences will
increase.

Education Trends

There is a continuing disparity among K-12
student racial/ethnic groups in academic
achievement levels and the disparity will
continue into the near future.
 There is an increased emphasis on high
expectations and accountability in K – 12 public
education.
 Government and philanthropic interests are
increasing their attention to and support for preK/early learning.
 Student education costs are increasing faster
than inflation.
Education Trends

There is an increasing gap between the demand
for math, science and engineering employees
and the ability of the Washington State’s
educational system to produce math, science
and engineering graduates.
 There is a continuing disparity among
postsecondary racial and ethnic groups in
measures of student outcomes, such as
certificates and degrees awarded, which is not
expected to improve in the near future.
 There is increasing attention to accountability in
post-secondary education.
Labor Force Trends

There will continue to be an across-the-board
supply-demand gap for workers who have
attained at least one year of college but less
than bachelor’s degree.
 There is a supply-demand mismatch for workers
at the long preparation level (Bachelor’s or
higher) as described below:



Shortage in Engineering, Software, Architecture,
Computer Science, Medical, Human Services, and
Protective Services.
Balanced in Research, Scientists, and Technical.
Surplus in Educators, Business and Management,
Editors, Writers, Performers, Administrative, Clerical,
Legal, Agriculture, Construction (management),
Production, Transportation, Sales and Service.
Labor Force Trends
While some work will be “off-shored” to other
countries for cost savings, other work that is
sensitive to customer satisfaction and requires
other necessary factors, will remain in or return
to the U.S.
 Between 2002 and 2012 it is expected that 25%
of new jobs will require a bachelor’s degree and
38% of new jobs will require short-term
preparation, some college, or an associate’s
degree.

Labor Force Trends
 Occupational
groups expecting greatest
employment growth for workers with 1-3
years of college in the next five years are:



Health care practitioners and support; 8%
Personal service workers and managers; 8%
Computer engineers, programmers, and
support; 13%.
Labor Force Trends

Through 2030 the Washington labor force will
have greater participation by older workers,
people of color, women, and people with
disabilities.
 The new workforce is requiring more education,
different skill sets, and presents new challenges.
 Some workers groups (e.g. people with
disabilities, youth in their 20’s, African American
men) are not fully participating in the current
labor force.
 During the period of 2000 – 2010, the state labor
force will grow at a projected rate of 1.5%
reflecting a slower growth rate in the past.
Washington State Board for
Community and Technical
Colleges
Olympia, WA
Workforce Education Council
August 16, 2006
Core Trends

Technology (Trend #10)


Technology is the impetus for on-going institutional
change with respect to the delivery of educational
services, driven by the respective needs of students,
business, industry and the community.
Economics (Trend #5)

In the future, there will be less of a national
competitive economy and more of a global
competitive economy composed of regional
economics like those of Spokane, Puget Sound, and
Southwestern Washington State.
Core Trends

Politics (Trend #1)


Projected demographic changes in the period 2005 –
2009 will require higher education to compete for
government resources requested for corrections,
medical assistance, long-term care and K-12
education.
Social Values and Lifestyles (Trend #16)

Beginning in 2000, three unique generations in the
workplace and community and technical college
system are present. Each generation has very unique
values, expectations, wants, desires, etc. and these
may clash in the workplace and classroom. This trend
will continue over the next 3 – 5 years.
Core Trends

Demographics (Trend #1, #4)


Between 2005 and 2010, the number of poor people
in Washington State is projected to exponentially
increase to more than 20% of the population or
1,329,963 people.
Between 2005 and 2030, the Washington State
population, especially those under 25 years of age,
will become increasingly more diverse and the largest
increases in ethnic groups will be Hispanics (242,863
to 487,703), those of two or more races (100,789 to
240,281), and Asian/Pacific Islanders (129,988 to
171,598).
Core Trends
 Educational


Competition (Trends #4, #5)
Online training and education continues to
expand rapidly.
Colleges are spending more resources and
time on transitional and developmental
education rather than advancing workforce
skills which ultimately compromises
achievement of economic development goals.
Core Trends

Education (Trends #2, #9)



A widening gap will continue to exist between low
literacy and non-native speaking workers entering our
system and the level of skills required by our
employees.
There is a continuing disparity among postsecondary
racial and ethnic groups in measures of student
outcomes, such as certificates and degrees awarded,
which is not expected to improve in the near future.
Labor Force (Trend #6)

Through 2030 the Washington labor force will have
greater participation by older workers, people of color,
woman, and people with disabilities.
SWOT Analysis
 Strengths



Cost effective
Serve diversity of state (regions) and people
(students)
Relationships/collaborations
 Weaknesses


Lack of student success and retention
Responding to the challenge of ongoing
changes in instructional and technological
methodologies
SWOT Analysis
 Opportunities



Economic development, collaborations, and
partnerships
Legislative support
Growing and changing economics and
demographics
 Threats


Competition from other public and private
institutions
Lack of prepared students
WEC Executive Committee
Draft Strategic Plan
 Vision

WEC will be the statewide leader in building a
dynamic and skilled workforce in a global
economy.
 Mission

WEC promotes collaborative partnerships that
support innovative educational opportunities
for a diverse workforce which increases
Washington’s competitiveness.
WEC Executive Committee
Draft Strategic Plan

Goals
 Develop and implement a framework for career
pathways that create access and lifelong learning
opportunities.
 Promote and support faculty development for the use
of multiple teaching strategies and technologies.
 Advocate and support funding initiatives that address
workforce education and cyclical fluctuations in the
economy.
 Support student success with special emphasis on
under-represented populations.
 Create and share resources and innovative practices
between and among CTCs to anticipate and respond
to industry needs.
WA Workforce Education Council
Activities and Timelines
for Completion
1.
2.
3.
Select project manager and select date
for workshop (July 14, 2005)
Conduct workshop one---Intro to
Environmental Scanning and Strategic
Planning (October 21, 2005)
Scanning underway (November 4, 2005)
WA Workforce Education Council
Activities and Timelines
for Completion
4. Completed scanning abstract forms, materials
and draft list of trends and emerging issues
submitted for review (March 19, 2006)
5. Written review of scanned materials completed
by Lapin shared with project manager (April 7,
2006)
6. Work session with each scan team and review
interviews with community leaders (May 5,
2006)
WA Workforce Education Council
Activities and Timelines
for Completion
7. Interviews with community leaders
conducted and responses shared (June
9, 2006)
8. Final list of trends and emerging issues
submitted to Lapin for changes and
editing ( June 30, 2006)
9. Final list of trends sent to community
representatives for review (July 14, 2006)
WA Workforce Education Council
Activities and Timelines
for Completion
10. Preliminary SWOT analysis completed and
organizational values identified (July 28, 2006)
11. Conduct workshop for community
representatives and college planners to identify
implications of trends (August 18, 2006)
12. Conduct workshop to develop strategic plan
(September 15, 2006)
13. Present strategic plan to external and internal
community for feedback. Make final appropriate
changes (October 13, 2006)
Benefits of the Strategic
Planning Process

Since the process is participatory it attracts more
support and legitimacy
 Leaders and participants are satisfied that the
process made for a better strategic plan and
provided a “road map” for the future.
 Leaders and participants believe the strategic
plan will improve the basis for decision making.
 Colleges benefit themselves and the
communities they serve by concentrating
planning from the “outside-in” rather than the
“inside-out.”
Benefits of the Strategic
Planning Process
 Colleges
involve their communities in their
planning process and provide their trends
to the community.
 Colleges become more active partners in
community and economic development
efforts.
 Colleges are better able to develop and
implement operational plans to carry out
their strategic plan.
Benefits of the Strategic
Planning Process
 Colleges
generally receive recognition and
praise for their process and strategic plan
from accrediting agencies.
Contact Information
Joel D. Lapin
Professor of Sociology
The Community College of Baltimore County
800 S. Rolling Rd.
Baltimore, MD 21228
E-mail: [email protected]
Phone: 443-840-4568
FAX: 443-840-5321