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European Winter Outlooks 2008/2009 and 2009/2010 Volker Schippers GTE+ Senior Adviser GTE+ Workshop on GTE+ Work Programme 24 June 2008 European Winter Outlooks 2008/2009 and 2009/2010 European level analysis of the transportation capacities and consumption forecasts in peak conditions and identification of possible EU internal bottlenecks to fulfil demand under these conditions Contents • Daily consumption forecast in peak winter conditions for the next winter under normal and exceptionally cold conditions • Transmission capacities of infrastructures at main European import points, LNG terminals and aggregated entries from national production • Aggregated entry capacities from storages Background • First European Winter Outlook was developed by GTE for the winter 2007/2008 after discussing this idea on Madrid XI • Highly welcomed in the meeting of the Gas Coordination Group on 25 October 2007; additional analyses requested • Results of these analyses presented by GTE on the meeting of the Gas Coordination Group on 8 January 2008 • GTE+ plans to develop Winter Outlooks for the winters 2008/2009 and 2009/2010 – Recognise usefulness of this work for the European Gas Market – Draft Third Energy Package of the Commission foresees the development of annual Winter Outlooks by ENTSOG Assumptions • Based on the respective national information provided by GTE+ members • Expected that a fair representation of the European situation can be developed although it must be taken into account that the data collected this way cannot necessarily be seen as complete • Develop and apply specific assumptions to take into account the depletion of production fields and the decrease of the withdrawal performance of gas storages during the winter Timeline 2008 2009 J FMAMJ J ASOND J FMAMJ J ASOND Winter Outlook 2008/2009 Data Collection and Analysis Presentation and Discussion Final Version Winter Outlook 2009/2010 Data Collection and Analysis Presentation and Discussion Final Version Development Phases for the Winter Outlooks 2008/2009 and 2009/2010 • Data Collection and Analysis (July and August) – Collection of the data via the GTE+ Members – Evaluation of the data received – Production of a draft Winter Outlook • Presentation and Discussion (September and October) – Presentation of the draft to European Stakeholders (MF, GCG or another appropriate event involving a large number of European stakeholders) – Feedback received will be used to refine the work • Publication of Final Version (October) Discussion