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"One Billion High Emitters: An Individual Perspective on Emissions and Reductions" M. Tavoni, PEI CMI 9th Annual Meeting, Feb. 9th 2010 China/US ratio Total Emissions Per Capita Emissions Rio:1992 48% 10% Kyoto:1997 55% 12% 2008 125% 30% 2 • Benchmarks for guiding the transition to a low carbon society in a continuously evolving world • Look beyond national averages, focus on the individual – How many people emit how much now and in the future and where ? • Estimate carbon emission distribution for 150 countries, projections for 16 regions Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, July 21, 2009, vol. 106 no. 29, pp. 11884-11888 “A focus on individuals can guide nations towards a low carbon world” S. Chakravarty, R. Socolow, M. Tavoni, Climate Science and Policy, 2009 3 Three broad category of global individual emitters (tCO2/yr) Low: <2 Middle: 2-10 2~Brasil, 10~Europe High: >10 Activity Amount producing 4 ton CO2/yr emissions a) Drive b) Fly 24,000 km/yr, 5 liters/100km 24,000 km/yr c) Heat home Natural gas, average house, average climate d) Lights 300 kWh/month when all coal-power (600 kWh/month, natural-gas-power) Global population and emission distribution in 2003… >10 0.7 2-10 1.9 <2 2 2-10 9.2 3.6 0 >10 13.6 4 6 Billions people <2 2.7 8 10 50 40 30 20 Billions tCO2 10 0 … and 2030 >10 1.2 2-10 2.8 <2 2 2-10 13.7 4.3 0 >10 24.2 4 6 Billions people <2 3.3 8 10 50 40 30 20 Billions tCO2 10 0 Reactions … • press coverage • “500 million richest people are responsible for 50 percent of emissions, while the poorest 50 percent accounts for only seven percent of emissions” H. Chavez, speech at COP15 in Copenhagen • where are (and will be) the low, middle and high emitters ? Population distribution across regions Countries responsibilities (population share) over4time USA other OECD China other nonOECD 2003 >10 2030 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 2003 2-10 2030 2003 <2 2030 Population distribution across regions Countries responsibilities (population share) over4time USA other OECD China other nonOECD 2003 >10 2030 0.00% 20.00% 40.00% 60.00% 80.00% 100.00% 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 2003 2-10 2030 2003 <2 2030 0 A look at China CHINA Population change 2030-2003 Population in 2030 >10 +299 356 2-10 +319 922 <2 -460 175 A look at China MIDDLE EAST Population change 2030-2003 Population in 2030 >10 +34 65 2-10 +55 145 <2 +11 65 A look at China Energy Poverty: low and very low emitters in 2030 5 4.5 4 Billion people 3.5 3 other 2.5 africa other_nonoecd_asia 2 india 1.5 1 0.5 0 <1 <2 A look at China Building a proposal for determining countries’ responsibilities to mitigation from the individual level People ranked by individual emissions globally 14 14 Individual Emissions Cap 15 15 15 Some people exceed the individual cap Individual Emissions Cap Emissions Floor 16 16 16 People in a nation determine national cap Required Reductions = + National Emissions Target = + Individual Emissions Cap + + For example, the proposal is applied to the U.S. here. + + 17 17 Combine a global-emissions cap and an individual-emissions floor Individual cap: without floor: 10.8 t CO2 with floor: 9.6 t CO2 1 Might China and the OECD reach a deal? Rest of world China Rest of OECD U.S. Dashed lines: EIA Business As Usual Solid lines: Global cap is 30 GtCO2 in 2010, 33 GtCO2 in 2020, 30 GtCO2 in 2030. • Look beyond Copenhagen: benchmark for adjusting countries responsibilities over time towards a low carbon world • Individual emissions can provide a useful guideline. The high emitters (>10tCO2) category is the most relevant, and the one where the biggest regional shifts will occur • Keep focus on the low emitters. The world’s poor do not need to be denied fossil fuels. BACK UP slides What does 1 tCO2/person-yr allow today? Direct Energy Use Household rate of use (4.5 people) Individual emissions (kgCO2/yr) Cooking 1 LPG canister per month 120 Transport 70 km by bus, car, motorbike per day 220 Electricity 800 kWh per year 160 Total 500 1 tCO2/yr: Double the “direct” emissions to account for “indirect” emissions. Emissions embedded in trade (production minus consumption) MtCO2 % of country emissions MtCO2 % of country emissions US -439 -7.3% China 585 17.8% Switzerland -63 -122% India 71 6.9% Australia 57.9 16.5% Mozambique -2.8 -172.4% ANNEX B -822 -5.6% NON ANNEX B 8.1% Source: Peters and Hertwich, 2007 822 Regional emissions in 2030 China Non-OECD minus China OECD minus U.S. 30 Gt global cap, 10.8 t individual cap U.S. 30 Gt global cap, 10.8 individual cap For a 30 GtCO2 global cap in 2030, four regions have comparable assignments