Transcript Slides Bruckner & Giljum

WIOD 2010
28.05.2010, Vienna, Austria
CO2 Embodied in
International Trade
Evidence for carbon leakage between 1995 and 2005
Martin Bruckner, Stefan Giljum, Christine Polzin (SERI),
Christian Lutz, Kirsten Svenja Wiebe (GWS mbH)
www.seri.at
Outline
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Production vs. consumption based
•
Model and data
•
Results
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Outline
•
Production vs. consumption based
•
Model and data
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Results
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Production vs. consumption based
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Production based (territorial) accounting

Advantage: data availability

UNFCCC (e.g. Kyoto Protocol)
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Consumption based accounting
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Modelling required

Consumer responsibility and climate justice

Consistency of climate policies
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Outline
•
Production vs. consumption based
•
Model and data
•
Results
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Global Resource Accounting Model
Model:
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True multi-regional IO-model
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Multi-directional trade
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40 + 13 countries, 2 regions (OPEC, RoW)
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48 sectors
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Global Resource Accounting Model
Data:
1. CO2 emissions (IEA)
2. IO tables (OECD)
3. Trade data (OECD)
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Global Resource Accounting Model
1. CO2 emissions (IEA)
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IEA Energy Balances
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Emissions from fuel combustion
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Austria: 80% of GHG emissions
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Global Resource Accounting Model
2. IO tables (OECD)
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IO tables for 29 OECD countries and 11 non-OECD countries
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Assumption of equal IO structures for 14 countries (where
bilateral trade data were available)
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OPEC (structure of Indonesia), RoW (structure of Argentina)
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around the years 1995, 2000 and 2005
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Data are interpolated for the years in between
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Global Resource Accounting Model
3. Trade data (OECD)
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STAN Bilateral trade data (BTD)
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Trade shares for 61 trade partners
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25 commodities + services
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Outline
•
Production vs. consumption based
•
Model and data
•
Results
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Carbon leakage
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Strong carbon leakage

Share of increase of emissions in non-Annex-B countries in the
emission reductions in Annex-B countries (IPCC)
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Weak carbon leakage

Emission imports from Annex-B to non-Annex-B countries (Peters
and Hertwich 2008)
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Changes over time
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Reasons for carbon leakage
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Replacement of industries to countries with less
strict environmental regulations
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Satisfaction of increased demand by countries with
lower production costs
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WIOD 2010
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Carbon leakage
Carbon leakage (ktonnes)
Share in global CO2 emissions
Martin Bruckner
1995
2005
Changes
2,095,569
3,602,590
1,507,021
9.6%
12.8%
24.0%
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Million tonnes CO2
Imports and exports
1,500
Top 3 Net-Importers and Exporters of carbon emissions
1,000
1995
2005
500
0
-500
-1,000
United States
Martin Bruckner
Japan
France
India
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Russian
Federation
China
15
Tonnes CO2 per person
Consumption based emissions
25
23,1 t
22,4 t
Consumption-based emissions per capita, 2005
20
15
12,8 t
10
6,1 t
Global average of CO₂-emissions
per capita: 4,3 tonnes
5
2,9 t
1,6 t
0
Australia
Martin Bruckner
United States
Germany
South Africa
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China
Brazil
16
Carbon trade balances
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Conclusions and policy recommendations
1. Carbon leakage is increasing rapidly
2. Global targets of emission reduction will not be
fulfilled without sharing responsibility between
producers and consumers.
3. International co-operation will depend on accepting
consumer responsibility.
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Thank you!
Contact details
e-mail: [email protected]
web: www.seri.at/GRAM-CO2
Martin Bruckner
WIOD 2010
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