Transcript 080312lvo_Slides_Energy

TWO BILLION CARS
Transforming Vehicles, Fuels, and Mobility
Daniel Sperling
University of California, Davis
and
California Air Resources Board
CIWMB/DTSC Building Bridges Conference
November 3, 2009
2 Billion Vehicles in 2020 (globally)!
2.5
2.0
Cycles & Scooters
Trucks & Buses
Cars
1.5
1.0
0.5
30
20
20
20
10
20
00
20
90
19
80
19
70
19
60
19
50
0.0
19
Number of Motor Vehicles (Billions)
3.0
Source: Sperling and Gordon (2009), based on DOE, JAMA, other projections
In next 10 years, world will consume 1/4 of all oil
consumed through its entire history
Cumulative global oil production, 1950–2030
Cumulative Global Oil Production
(billion barrels)
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Source: Sperling and Gordon (2009), based on U.S. DOE/EIA data
Oil Problem #1:
Middle East Gaining More Control of Oil Production
120
56%
100
mb/d
80
60
48%
40
44%
20
0
2005
2010
2015
Total OPEC
Non-OPEC conventional oil
2020
2025
40%
2030
Non-OPEC non-conventional oil
OPEC market share
Source: IEA reference scenario
market share
52%
The problem is not running out of oil!
Oil Problem #2: Shift to High-Carbon Unconventional Oil
Supply “Curve” of World Hydrocarbon Resources
80
Arctic
80
70
WEO required
Cumulative 2030
70
WEO required
Cumulative 2030
60
EOR
60
50
Oil
Shale
Oil
EOR
Arctic
Arctic
$ per barrel
Arctic
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
Already
Already
Produced
Produced
10
10
OPEC
OPEC
Middle
Middle
East
East
0
0
0
0
1000
1000
Other
Other
ConvConventional
entional
2000
2000
Deep
Water
Deep
Water
3000
3000
EOR
Heavy oil
EOR
Bitumen
Heavy
oil
Bitumen
Shale
Super
Deep
Super
Deep
4000
4000
5000
5000
6000
6000
Barrels Oil (billions)
IEA, 2005
Problem #3: Climate Change
Billion tons of CO2 (global)
Some scientists now
say 350 ppm is
necessary to avoid
catastrophic climate
750 ppm
change
550
450
350 ppm
To stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentration, need to decarbonize the
energy system at several times the historical rate of 0.3%/y. Even if
electric sector is completely decarbonized by 2100, stabilization at 550
(450) ppm => 3 (5) fold reduction in carbon emissions from direct fuel use
vs. IS92a.
Transportation Plays Large Role in Climate
Change and Oil Security
Transportation accounts for ¼ of CO2
California
38%
emissions in world
U.S.
Worldwide
E.U.
Transportation accounts
for 2/3 of oil in US and
½ in world
28%
23%
21%
0%
5% transport
10% 15%
20% 25%
Direct share*
CO2 emissions
30%
35%
40%
EIA, 2006
Transforming Transportation
• Transforming vehicles (“easiest”)
• Transforming fuels (hard)
• Transforming mobility (hardest)
First Leg
Transforming Vehicles
• Large potential to improve efficiency of
conventional vehicles.
• Even larger potential to reduce oil use and
GHGs with advanced (electric-drive) vehicles.
No progress in recent decades, especially in US (and Australia)
Automotive industry is highly innovative, but efficiency innovations
have been used to offset increased weight, size, and power
Average Vehicle Characteristics
Percent Change from 1987 to 2006(USA)
100%
75%
50%
25%
0%
-25%
Fuel Economy
5% Lower
Weight (lbs)
29% Heavier
Horsepower
86% Higher
0 to 60 Time (sec)
35% Faster
Source: US EPA
Can we stop the horsepower race and use efficiency innovation
for improved fuel economy? Policy plays key role!
The horsepower race…
Ferrari 308 GTS, 1984
7.3 secs from 0-60, 230 hp
Toyota RAV4, 2008
7.3 seconds from 0-60, 269 hp
(Tom Selleck as Magnum, PI)
Toyota SUV today = Ferrari in 1984
New U.S. CAFE and California GHG Standards
• 35.5 mpg (6.6 l/100km) by MY 2016 (~155 gCO2/km) (EU is aiming for 120g by 2015)
• ~40% increase from today’s 25 mpg (255 gCO2/km)
California GHG standards (Pavley I and II)
Fuel Economy (mpg)
40
New combined CAFE (from 2007 energy bill)
Combined (Cars and light trucks)
California GHG
standard and
planned US std
35
30
Cars
25
20
Light trucks
15
10
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Model year
2005
2010
2015
2020
Electric vehicle experiment of 1990s largely failed …
but led to improved batteries and electric drivetrains
which are now making comebacks in hybrids,
fuel cell vehicles... and battery-electric vehicles!
Chrysler
GEMs
GM EV1
Early version of Ford//Pivco BEV
Toyota
Honda
Bombardier
Pivco/Th!nk
Nissan
Forerunner Technology for BEVs, PHEVs, and FCVs
HEVs Slowly Gaining Market Share in USA (now
2.9%).
HEV Share of New Vehicle Sales
5.0%
Cars & Lt Truck HEV Share of LDV
4.5%
Car HEV Share of Cars
4.0%
Lt Truck HEV Share of LT
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007* Through
2008 August
2009*
Batteries are Expensive But Steadily Improving
(~8% improvement/yr)
Source: Johnson Control–SAFT, 2005 and 2007 (from IEA, 2009)
Incremental Cost of Electric-Drive Vehicles Relative to Baseline
2005 Gasoline Vehicle over Next 25 years (2005$)
Current gasoline
Current diesel
Current HEV
Advanced gasoline
Advanced diesel
Future Gasoline
HEV
PHEV
BEV
FCV
Car
0
+$1,500
+$4,400
+$1,800
+$3,000
+$2,500
+$3,900
+$8,000
+$4,500
Source: Adapted from US National Academies, 2009; Bandivadekar et al., 2008; Kalhammer et al, 2007;
Kromer and Heywood, 2007; NAS, 2008.
Plausible Market Shares of Advanced Light Duty Vehicles
by 2020 and 2035 (by model year) (USA)
2020
Turbo Gasoline SI
Diesels
Gasoline HEV
2035
1025-35%
15%
8-12% 15-30%
PHEV
1015-40%
14%
1-3% 7-15%
FCV
0-1%
3-6%
BEV
0-2%
3-10%
Source: National Academies, 2009 (AEF energy efficiency chapter)
IEA Aggressive CO2 Scenario… Almost All Cars are
Electric-Drive in 2050
180
H2 hybrid fuel cell
Passenger LDV Sales (million)
160
Electric
140
CNG/LPG
120
Plug-in hybrid diesel
100
Diesel hybrid
80
Conventional diesel
60
Plug-in hybrid gasoline
40
Hybrid (gasoline)
20
Conventional gasoline
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
IEA, 2009 (blue map scenario: 50% reduction in CO2-e emissions by 2050 )
But great uncertainty about how market will evolve.
How will consumers value…
All electric range and zero emissions?
High fuel economy?
The answers will determine the
success of BEVs and PHEVs.
Early
market Innovators
Main
market
consumers
Valle
y of
death
Development of market
Future of Plug-in Vehicles?
Chinese electric scooter
Nissan Leaf (BEV)
• China likely to play large role (~80 million e-bikes
sold)
• Battery electric vehicles likely to be small city
cars.
• Most PHEVs likely to have small batteries
(“enhanced” Prius)
Battery cost must drop sharply, durability must increase
Second Leg
Transforming Fuels
• Transportation is almost totally dependent on oil today
(everywhere except Brazil)
 Some use of corn ethanol in US and NG in Argentina, Pakistan,
Brazil and a few other countries
• Future fuels will be a mix of biofuels, electricity, and
hydrogen
BIOFUELS
HYDROGEN
ELECTRICITY
Many Promising Replacements
Some better than others…
Fuel Cells, hydrogen
Biofuel, wood
Battery Electric, natural gas
Hybrid Electric, full hybrid
Battery Electric, US power mix
Diesel
Ethanol, corn
Natural Gas
Gasoline, conventional
Battery Electric, new coal
Gasoline, tar sands
Gasoline, coal
-100
-50
0
50
Carbon Emissions Relative to Conventional Gasoline
100
Fuel du jour Phenomenon
Disruptive and wasteful
• 30 years ago – Synfuels (oil shale, tar sands,
heavy oil, coal)
•
•
•
•
•
•
20 years ago – Methanol
15 years ago – Electricity (Battery EVs)
5 years ago – Hydrogen (Fuel cells)
2 years ago – Ethanol
Today –
Electricity (Plug-in hybrid vehicles)
What’s next?
Government poor at picking winners …
Need durable policy such as low carbon fuel standards
Third Leg:
Transforming Mobility and Land Use
In US, we’ve created a
transportation monoculture
where “sprawl is the law.”
Many opportunities for
innovation!
US Policy to Reduce Vehicle Use
• No national policy or laws to reduce vehicle use!
• California: new law to reduce vehicle use (SB375)
Key Strategy: Expand Traveler Choice
Smarter, Cleaner, and Cheaper!
California’s Pioneering Role
2002
2006
2012
2008
2020
AB32
regulations
take effect
AB1493
signed
(Pavley
vehicle
stds)
AB32
signed
SB375
signed
Reduces VMT
AB32 scoping
plan adopted
Reduce GHG
emissions to
1990 levels
27
The California Model
• Model and leader, not island
 Strong partnerships -- with other governments, and with industry and
NGOs
• Stimulate innovation in technology, behavior, institutions
• Target specific GHG reductions with broad array of rules and
incentives
 Energy efficiency stds, Renewables Portfolio Standard, Low Carbon Fuel
Standard, etc
• Overlay cap-and-trade program (and offsets) to create price signal for
carbon and to equilibrate costs across sectors (and gain additional
reductions)
Sperling’s 5 Point Plan to Transform Transport in US
1. Increased R&D investments (and training of scientists and engineers)

Batteries, fuel cells, and lightweight materials
2. Accelerate advanced vehicle commercialization

Zero emissions requirement (California … and US?)

Tax credits for hybrids, fuel cell, battery-electric vehicles
3. Performance Standards for fuels and vehicles

CAFE, California GHG standards for vehicles

LCFS
4. Market instruments to align regulations with market

Feebates

Fuel price floor
5. Reform institutions and realign incentives to reduce sprawl and VMT
•
Reform transport funding to reward reduced VMT and stimulate investment
in new mobility services
•
Remove incentives for sprawl (fiscalization of LU, zoning, engineering rules)
Question of Will and Vision, More Than Cost!
• Consider hydrogen and fuel cells, which many
think is most expensive and difficult transition …
 $55 billion extra over 15 years for vehicles and fuels, to
get to 10% market penetration (NRC/NAS, 2008)
• Meanwhile, US spends ~$8 billion/year on
subsidies for corn ethanol
It won’t be easy …
"We stand at a crossroads. One path leads to despair, the
other to destruction. Let's hope we choose wisely."
Woody Allen
I’m more optimistic despite much
evidence to the contrary…