Transcript The Declaration of Independence

The 30th USAEE/IAEE North American Conference
Washington DC, 12 October 2011
THE RELEVANCE OF CCS AS A CLIMATE
POLICY INSTRUMENT IN VIETNAM
Presented by: Nhan T. Nguyen *
(co-authors: Minh Ha-Duong and Didier Bonijoly)
* Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement (CIRED/EHESS)
*Van Xuan Center of Research in Economics, Management, and Environment (VCREME)
CONTENTS
1
Introduction
2
Promising storage capacity estimates
3 E IRP simulation: Expansion of coal, next 30 years
4
Potential of CCS at Power Plants in 2040
5
Concluding remarks
2
PRESENT SITUATION
 331,212 km2,3200 km coastline
 87 million population, 2009
 2000-2009:7.3yr-1 GDP growth
100%
90%
80%
70%
Services
60%
50%
Industry
40%
Agriculture
30%
20%
10%
0%
1990199219941996199820002002200420062008
 Power generation (2000-2009) grew faster
Capacity
Generation
Average growth rate
(2009)
(2009)
Total generation
Thermal generation
18.9 GW
85 TWh
15%
19%
3
TRENDS
 Demand growth: 13.5%-16.6%, next decade
 Baseline scenario: coal generation share: 32% (2015) to 68%
(2040)
Power generation sources by 2015
Primary fuel supplies for electricity sector
Coal
Hydro
Wind,
Solar,
Geothermal
Nuclear
Biomass
Oil, Gas
4
Source: Institute of Energy (2008), NLDC (2010)
PROMISING GEOLOGICAL STORAGE OPPORTUNITIES
Specification requirement:
Sediment formations deeper than 1 km
•
They should be 20 kilometers away from
major faults or known oil fields
•
No more than 100 kilometers away from a
CO2 source of > 2.5 MtCO2/yr
•
Most promising fields:



Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR): Cuu Long
river basin
Enhanced Coal Bed Methane Recovery
(ECBM): Quang Ninh coal basin
Storing CO2 into depleted oil fields: in Cuu
Long, Song Hong, and the North end
Figure: 5 major basins in Vietnam identified for storage opportunities
5
Utsira reservoir

Largest storage capacity: 20 to 60 Gt of CO2
INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLANNING (IRP)
Supply-side
& CCS Data
Load curve &
load demand
Demand-side
Data
CCS constraints
IRP Model
Fuels constraints
Externality cost
Carbon values
Probabilistic
estimation of system
Optimal expansion
plan
Structure of
technologies
& Fuels mix
Plant Emission
Factors
CO2, SO2 and NOx
Emissions

Price elasticity
of demand
Total planning
Cost
Electricity prices
(LRAC &AIC)
The analytical flowchart of the IRP model
Source: Shrestha and Nguyen, 2003
7
CARBON PRICES SCENARIOS
US$/tCO2
2010
2040
Low
(LCV)
5
20
Moderate
(MCV)
5
35
High
(HCV)
5
50
Very high
(VHCV)
5
60
8
EXPANSION OF COAL GENERATION, NEXT 30 YEARS

GW
150
Greater dependence on large-scale
coal for future expansion, 2010-2040
1600
Cumulative coal consumption, 20102040 (million tons)
1499
1400
100
1200
50
0

981
1000
800
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
400
Others
Gas based power capacity
Coal based power capacity
Coal
49%
200
0
Domestic coal consumption Imported coal consumption
Gas
19%

Source: the IRP simulation results
600
Others
32%
Cumulative electricity generation,
2010-2040: 14,106TWh
9
BASELINE WITHOUT CCS: EMISSIONS FROM POWER
GENERATION
Cumulative emissions
Annual CO2 emission from power sector
(million tons)
(2010-2040)
600
CO2
7.2 Gt
SO2
15.3 Mt
NOx
8.0 Mt
500
400
300
200
100
0

The Electricity and Heat sector would emit 300 MtCO2/yr
(2010-2040)  3 tCO2/yr/capita. This level is not sustainable.
10
Source: the IRP simulation results
COSTS OF CCS IN THE IRP SIMULATION FOR VIETNAM
Integrating CCS into the IRP model

Power generation plants with more than 2.5 Mton of CO2 emissions per year
opportunity to be selected for carbon capture and storage deployment
Costs of capture based power plants
Sub PC-
Sub PC-
Super PC-
Super PC-
IGCC-
NGCC-
CCS
CCS ready
CCS
CCS ready
CCS
CCS
Reference plant TCR (US$/kW)
1184
1184
1328
1328
1581
684
Capture plant TCR (US$/kW)
1940
1834
2293
2184
2050
1100
2025
Cost of CO2capture (US$/tCO2)
42.1
39.2
43.8
40.8
28
39.3
Cost of CO2 avoided (US$/tCO2)
45.4
42.5
47.1
44.1
31.3
41.9
Reference plant TCR (US$/kW)
1100
1100
1200
1200
1390
671
Capture plant TCR (US$/kW)
1800
1702
1860
1771
1880
991
2040
Cost of CO2 captured (US$/tCO2)
37.2
34.5
31.2
28.7
23.8
36.1
Cost of CO2 avoided (US$/tCO2)
40.0
37.3
33.9
31.5
26.5
38.6
11
Source: the IRP simulation results
IRP RESULTS: CCS AS A ABATEMENT OPTION
 CCS enters after 2030 at ≥25US$/tCO2: but few
Carbon price in 2040
(US$/tCO2)
 40-60US$/tCO2: 32% capacity, 20% abatement
60
163.4
52.6
50
154.3
3.6
35
153.8
2.1
0
50
100
150
200
GW
Total generation capacity

Generation capacity with CCS
No CCS plants selected in Low Carbon Value scenario (LCV)
Source: the IRP simulation results
12
NOT CHEAPER THAN RENEWABLES BUT CCS+EOR
COULD BE COST-EFFECTIVE ABATEMENT
 renewables (6-10 US$/tCO2) cheaper than
US$/tCO2) in IRP model
CCS (≥ 25
CCS + enhanced oil recovery (EOR)  net benefits 10-16
US$/tCO2 based oil price 2003 (IPCC, 2005)
 Proposal at White Tiger
Oil Field in Vietnam:
CO2 capture from (NGCC)
plants, transport
pipeline,
storage in offshore/onshore
fields, enhanced oil recovery
13
CONCLUDING REMARKS

Vietnam has a promising carbon emissions storage
capacity

CCS not cost-effective if carbon price below 25 US$/tCO2
by 2030. But become a key abatement option (20%) if the
price increases 40-60 US$/tCO2 from 2030 to 2040

Without EOR, CCS is not cheaper than renewables

Need for new policy
14