Transcript Slide 1

Central Arizona’s Water Supply:
Planning In An Age of Uncertainty
- GFOAz Summer Conference -
Chuck Cullom
CAP Resource Planning & Analysis
August 7, 2008
Uncertainties:
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Water Supply
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Shortage/Drought/Climate Change
Increasing Demands
Energy Supply
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Availability
Costs
Carbon?
CAP’s Role
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Deliver Colorado River Water to Central Arizona
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3 County Service Area
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Maricopa
Pinal
Pima
Reduce Groundwater Pumping in Service Area
Repay Debt to Federal Government
Build and Operate Recharge Projects
Operate Groundwater Replenishment District
CAP System
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336 mile Delivery System
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Canals
8 Siphons
3 Tunnels
14 Pumping Plants
Lake Pleasant – New Waddell Dam
Navajo Generating Station
CAP Service Area & AMAs:
CAP Customers
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Indian Contractors
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M&I Subcontractors
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71 Municipal Water Providers
Irrigation Districts
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9 Tribes
10 Irrigation Districts
Excess Water Customers
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Remaining Customers
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Arizona Water Banking Authority
Groundwater Replenishment District
Municipal Water Providers
SRP
Mines, Power Plants, and Others
CAP Water Supply
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CAWCD Delivery Contract
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CAP Long-term Delivery Contracts
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1.415 million acre-feet
All Remaining Unused Arizona Colorado River
Water
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1968 Priority (Fourth Priority)
Accommodate other P4 (~164,000 af)
Current Diversion is ~1.6 million acre-feet
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Deliveries ~ 1.53 million acre-feet
What is left in the 1.415 maf
Long-term Contracts?
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NIA Priority for Reallocation
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87,271af
Planned Allocation to CAP M&I
subcontractors
Held for Future Indian Settlements
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67,300 af
Requires Settlement of Indian Water Rights
Claims
How Does CAP Get Water?
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Colorado River Hydrology
Upper Basin Demands
Lower Basin Priority
Arizona Priority
Colorado River
Flow
Arizona’s Colorado
River Supply
Upper Basin
Demands
Arizona’s P1 – P3 “OnRiver” Depletions
Reservoir
Storage
Other Lower
Basin Demands
CAP Supply
(Diversion-Losses)
AZ P4 “On-River”
Depletions
1: CAP P3 Water
(Ak Chin+SRPMIC Exchange)
(68,400 af)
2: M&I & Indian Priority
(up to 981,902 af)
3: NIA Type
(up to 364,699 af)
4: Excess Water
(Remaining Supply)
NIA Excess
Commitment
(2004 – 2030)
(400 kaf – 225 kaf)
“Full Cost Excess”
e.g. CAGRD, Other
M&I Incentive
CAGRD Reserve +
AWBA M&I Firming
(Shared Pool)
Other AWBA
Purposes
(On-River, Indian
Settlement,
Interstate
Storage)
What Happens In A Shortage?
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How Are Shortages Declared
When Do Shortages Occur
Who Takes A Reduction
How Will We Mitigate Impacts
Reduction in Deliveries to Lower Basin States
(From the Colorado River shortage sharing agreement executed in December 2007)
UNITED STATES
EOY Elevation
of
Lake Mead
MSL
Reduction to
Lower Basin
States
from Lake
Powell
(Total shortage)
MEXICO
Nevada's
Share
Arizona's
Share
Mexico's
Share
AF
AF
AF
AF
Level I
1075' to 1050'
333,000
13,000
320,000
67,000
Level II
1050' to 1025'
417,000
17,000
400,000
83,000
Level III
1025' to 1000'
500,000
20,000
480,000
100,000
Level IV
below 1000
Basin States must consult.
Note SNWA's intake is above 1,000’.
Potential Shortage Impacts on Arizona’s
Colorado River Water Allotment
AZ
Reduction
P4 Users
at 10%
of AZ's reduction
CAP
at 90%
of AZ's reduction
TOTAL
AF
AF
AF
Level I
320,000
32,000
288,000
Level II
400,000
40,000
360,000
Level III
480,000
48,000
432,000
Level IV
Basin States must consult.
Note SNWA's intake is above 1,000’.
CAP Water Supply Buildout By Water Priority
And Shortage Levels
(2007 - 2058)
1600000
1400000
1200000
Acre-feet
1000000
800000
600000
400000
200000
0
Indian
M&I
Indian NIA
NIA
Ag Pool
Full Cost Excess
Remaining Excess
Level 1 Shortage
Level 2 Shortage
Level 3 Shortage
2057
2055
2053
2051
2049
2047
2045
2043
2041
2039
2037
2035
2033
2031
2029
2027
2025
2023
2021
2019
2017
2015
2013
2011
2009
2007
Year
PRIORITY:
LONG TERM CAP CONTRACT DELIVERIES
Priority was developed in the Gila River Indian Settlement Agreement and
approved via the Arizona Water Settlements Act of 2004
Priority
Category
Comments
1
Indian
1
Municipal & Industrial (M&I)
2
Non-Indian Agriculture (NIA)
PRIORITY:
Priority
1
NIA relinquished long term priority in
exchange for Ag Settlement Pool water
through 2030. Ag Settlement Pool has first
priority in Excess CAP water deliveries.
EXCESS CAP WATER
Category
Agriculture
Settlement
Pool
Comments
NIA Water
2004
400,000 AFY
2017
300,000 AFY
2024
225,000 AFY
2
Full Cost Excess
All
Others
Full cost M & I uses, including regular CAGRD
replenishment.
Incentive-priced recharge water for long term
storage credits.
3
Recharge
AWBA
ARS 45-2427(B)
CAGRD
4
AWBA Recharge
5
Interstate Recharge
AWBA
ARS 48-3772
On-River, Indian Firming, Water Management
Pursuant to executed interstate agreements
Direct Recovery – Credits pumped into CAP Canal to replace reduced CAP supply:
CAP Canal
Credits
Indirect Recovery – Credits pumped as part of customer’s CAP supply:
CAP Canal
Credits
After 2030 – CAP Customers Will
Need New Water Supplies
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Increased Use of Effluent Supplies
Desalination of Brackish Groundwater:
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Desalination of Seawater
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Yuma Area
Goodyear-Buckeye
Gila Bend
Puerto Penasco, Sonora
Transfers from Agriculture to Urban Uses
Energy Nexus
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Desalination & Effluent Are Energy Intensive:
Seawater ROCAP
Brackish GW
RO
Effluent RO
CAP
0
1
2
3
Energy (MWhr/AF)
4
5
For New Water Supplies - CAP Will
Need New Power Supplies
New Power
2030
2010
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
Power Requirements (MWhr)
3,000,000
4,000,000
Available Power Resources
New Water + New Power + Uncertainty
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Increase Power Supply By 30%
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150 MWhr Generating Station
~ 7% of Navajo Capacity
Increase Water Supply By ~ 20%
Navajo Generating Station = Coal (BUT
CLEAN COAL)
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Carbon Tax Increases Costs
+ 50% of CAP’s Revenue From Excess Power
Sales
CAP’s Strategy For Uncertainty
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Plan Early
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Plan Often
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Plan for new water & energy supplies now
Revisit, refine, & modify
Communicate with & listen to customers
Be Flexible
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“Climates” Change
Physical Climate
 Political Climate
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Questions