Transcript Document
A Hybrid Path to Entry or Autonomous Vehicle Personal Rapid Transit (PRT) a Concept or The Prospect for the Realization of Personal(izable)Rapid Transit(PRT) through Autonomous Taxis Alain L. Kornhauser Professor, Operations Research & Financial Engineering Director, Transportation Research Program Princeton University Presented at 91st Annual Meeting Transportation Research Board Washington, DC January 23, 2012 Many Years Ago @ TRB • The Executive Director of APTA put his arm around me and said: – “Alain… • Personal Rapid Transit (PRT) is the ‘System of the Future’, • And….. – Always Will Be!!! • A truly Prophetic Statement, – But… Why would I or Anyone… • ever have an interest in PRT? • Well… – while PRT may always be the “System of the Future” – All other forms of Transit are hopelessly uncompetitive in serving anything but a few infinitesimally small and niche markets. http://www.bts.gov/pub lications/highlights_of_t he_2001_national_hous ehold_travel_survey/ht ml/figure_06.html The Competition (the automobile) … • provides a phenomenally better Value (Service_Price) • Its dominance has proved insensitive to Price: – A doubling in the Inflation adjusted price of gasoline http://inflationdata.com/Infl ation/images/charts/Oil/Gas oline_inflation_chart.htm The Competition (the automobile) … • provides a phenomenally better Value (Service_Price) • Its dominance has proved insensitive to Congestion: – Increased in duration, intensity and extent hthttp://www.ops.f hwa.dot.gov/conge stion_report/execut ive_summary.htm# congestion_worse The Competition (the automobile) … • provides a phenomenally better Value (Service_Price) • Its dominance has proved insensitive to PeerPressure: – Through the Clean Air Act of 1970, the automobile has been enormously robust in addressing environmental concerns http://w ww.bts. gov/pub lications /pocket _guide_t o_trans portatio n/2011/ pdf/enti re.pdf The Competition (the automobile) … • provides a phenomenally better Value (Service_Price) • Its dominance has been robust to PeerPressure from: – safety concerns; it has cut its fatality rate in half in last 25 years http://www.bts.gov/publicatio ns/pocket_guide_to_transport ation/2011/pdf/entire.pdf The Competition (the automobile) … • provides a phenomenally better Value (Service_Price) • Its dominance has been robust to PeerPressure from: – Energy independence; substantial fuel efficiency improvements and conversions: The Competition (the automobile) … • provides a phenomenally better Value (Service_Price) • Its dominance has been robust to PeerPressure from: – safety concerns; it has cut its fatality rate in half in last 25 years http://www.bts.gov/publicatio ns/pocket_guide_to_transport ation/2011/pdf/entire.pdf Why is Transit so unable to compete? For the most part: • The personal utility delivered by a trip varies wildly with a definitive extremum that depends on the detailed temporal and spatial characteristics of the trip. • Relatively few individuals tend to have Utility distributions that are compatible with the spatial and temporal service offerings of conventional mass. So… • People go out an buy cars and craft its use to capture the most utility out of every trip they make. • The car’s temporal flexibility and spatial ubiquity that allows its users to readily maximize their temporal-spatial utility. PRT is … • An attempt to duplicate the car’s temporal availability and spatial ubiquity. – Temporal availability: vehicles repositioned in anticipation of demand and expeditiously dispatched once boarded – Spatial ubiquity: through the provision of stations efficiently interconnected off-line stations where some vehicles can wait for passengers while allowing others to pass by without delay PRT is … • Since the Temporal-Spatial distribution of personal utility-maximizing travel demand is so diffuse: – The probability that more than a handful of people will want to travel at about the same time, from the same station and along a similar path is very small; thus, • the delivered service is usually Personal, and • when demand is high, informal ride share opportunities to efficiently “flatten out” the demand curve and avoid congestion at essentially no loss of utility. – PRT delivers all of the fundamental benefits of owning a car without the burdens of owning your own car. So why hasn’t PRT Flourished?… • Scale: – When large, the spatial ubiquity flourishes • My classes have designed NJ State-wide PRT networks that place essentially every desired location within ¼ mile walk (no one needs a car!) ; however, it requires – ~10,000 off-line stations, and – ~ 10,000 miles of interconnect, mostly elevated guideway – When limited, spatial flexibility is limited • insufficient for more than a very few to give up their car. – So… • The initial evolutionary path form nothing to something is very challenging So why hasn’t PRT Flourished?… • Infrastructure: – The guideway is largely duplicative of existing roadways • Even though it is small and narrow it is still duplicative – Guideway needs to be grade separated from roadways • It’s usually elevated or fenced; a visual blight (to least some) – Capital requirements remain in the private sector • Risk-reward measure remains squarely on “why bother”! – True for Speculators, Land Developers, Chartered Utilities, Monopolies and the Public Sector There may be light in the tunnel… • APMs are a mainstay at essentially every major airport • WVU fully appreciates and acknowledges the essential value of its 40 year old PRT system • New PRT systems are operational in Masdar and Heathrow • New systems are under construction in Korea and about to commence in India • Price of the communications and automatic controls is going to zero The biggest light may be… • The Advances in Autonomous Vehicle Control – Much of it fueled by the DARPA Grand Challenges ’04, ‘05, ’07 – Continued on by researchers, entrepreneurs and manufacturers • Lane departure warning and lane keeping • Frontal collision warning and avoidance • Many individual autonomous vehicle initiatives – – – – – Princeton: Prospect 12 … objective to pass NJ DMV driver’s test Italians Germans VT, CMU, Stanford, … Google • All with the objective of placing sufficient intelligence in a vehicle so that it can operate safely and efficiently on existing street mixed in with human operated vehicle It is Clear… • We aren’t very good drivers • We prefer to – text, talk, drink, sleep, daydream, rather than drive • Driving is boring, an insult to our intelligence! • Once upon a time… – I shifted gears, controlled my cruise speed with my foot and closely planned my every turn • Hopefully… – I’ll no longer have to steer, brake, or pay attention. • Chances are: People will gladly pay for such service If I don’t have to drive… • Why should I own??? • If I pay enough… – One will show up at my front door and properly deploy itself at my destination. • If demand is too high… – I can walk to a nearby autonomous taxi stand and contribute to ridesharing. To serve New Jersey’s • ~30 million daily trips, I need… – NJ Transit rail and express bus operation to continue operation – ~10,000 off-street Autonomous Taxi locations – ~1,000,000 autonomous vehicles – All operating on existing streets • that could continue to be used for goods movement, emergency management, bicyclists, walkers. • Thank You