Transcript 슬라이드 1 - Europa

Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis
(FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making, 28th- 29th September 2006
Korean Technology Foresight for
S & T Policy Making
Byeongwon Park
Technology Foresight Center
Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning
Seville Seminar on FTA
Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy
and decision making, 28th- 29th September 2006
Korea’s S&T has achieved remarkable
growth during the last half century.
Past and Present of Korea’s S&T
World 8th Power in S&T by 2025
Technological
Competitiveness
2nd (IMD, 2005)
7th(WEF, 2005)
SCI Paper
19,279(2004)
55% (since 2000)
# of Researcher
156,220 FTE
44% (since 2000)
US
Patents
4,428
34% (since 2000)
Corporate Research
Institutes
10,270(2004)
44% (since 2000)
R&D
Budget
28,774(milliom US$ PPP)
56% (since 2000)
New S&T
Administration
Since 2004
Overview of Government R&D in Korea
Current National R&D Budget
Governmental R&D : $ 7.7B (‘05)
Rest of
Ministries
(Defense,
Agriculture,
Transportation,
etc.)
MOCIE : Ministry of Commerce, Industry & Energy
MOST : Ministry of Science & Technology
MIC : Ministry of Information & Communication
OSTI: Office of Science & Technology Innovation
2
MOCIE : 19% for Industrial
Technology Development
MOST
: 19% for Scientific R&D
MOST(OSTI) : 11% for
Managing Research
Organizations
MIC : 9% for Information &
Communication Technology
Government R&D Related Organizational Structure
President
NSTC*
MOST
Vice Prime Ministry
OSTI
MOCIE
ITEP
Others
MIC
KISTEP
KOSEF
IITA
Main Bodies of R&D
(Research Institutions under Research Council,
Private Companies, Universities, etc)
5
*NSTC : National Science & Technology Council
Agencies
Main Government R&D Programs in Korea
82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2000 2001 2002 2004
Dual Use Tech. Program
HAN Project (G7)
Space Tech. Development Program
MOST
Creative Research Initiatives
NRL Program
MOST National R&D Programs
21C Frontier Program
Nuclear Energy Development Program
Basic Science Program
Next-
MOCIE
Industrial Technology Program (Program for SME’s Key Tech. Program)
Alternative Energy & Energy Conservation Program
MIC
Information & Telecommunication Technology Program
MOD
generation
growth
engine
program
Dual Use Tech. Program
MOHW Health & Medical Technology Program
MOEnv
Environmental Technology Program
Key Environment
Tech. Program
Agricultural Technology Program
MOAF
MOE
14
SMBA
Small Business Innovation Research
Academia Support Program
BK21 Program
BUT,
Korea faces the new and daunting
challenges in coming years.
Korean Economy in the midst of Uncertainty
Increasing risk due to new Tech
High oil price
-Advances in NT, BT, ET
-Fast-follower  World leader
- 97% import of energy
-Energy-intensive industry
-(ex.steel Ind.)
Fast Ageing society
Socioeconomic Polarization
-fertility rate : 4.53(‘70)1.08 (‘06)
-Net decrease in population after 2020
-Collapse of middle class
-Big Corp. vs. SMEs
-Seoul vs. Regional
FTA & economic Block
-38.3% GDP dependence on Export
-Rising China
--Nutcraker Situation
North Korea
Some challenges in S&T area
Weak Basic Research
100
Increasing Technology Trade Deficits
Development
Applied
Basic
90
80
70
50
40
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30
Export
Import
4000
US$(million)
60
5000
Tech. Trade Deficit
3000
2000
20
1000
10
0
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a serious sociocultural phenomena of
avoiding sci. & eng. among the young
100%
75%
%
"Uncertainty cannot be pinned down
Vocational
Liberal Art
Science
or coaxed into cages. It is only
50%
partly tamable, and we must learn
25%
to live with the beast.“
0%
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-Paul J.H. Schoemaker
How can Korea find a way
to the future of S&T?
Foresight Activities
Seville Seminar on FTA
YEAR
DELPHI
MIXED
PANEL/SCENARIO
19701989
1990
Netherlands
1st Germany
5th Japan
OECD(→Present)
1991
1st US-Core Tech.
1992
New Zealand, UN(→present)
1993
1st Korean TF(→1994)
1994
France
Japan/Germany
1995
6th Japan
France-100 core Tech.
3rd US-critical Tech.
Japan
Germany
AU-ASTEC, Finalnd(1996-98)
Netherlands (Future Committee)
Italy industrial forecasting
ACUNU Millennium Project
Nigeria, India, Philippines
1996
1997
1998
1999
2nd Korean TF(→1999)
Spain
Ireland
APEC
Hungary-TEP
2nd UK, Germany-FUTUR(→present)
Ireland, Italy
Venezuela
2nd France-100 Core Tech.
Italy 2nd Industrial forecasting
China, Portugal, Brazil
7th Japan
8th Japan(→2004)
China
Netherlands
South Africa, New Zealand
Sweden, 4th US- critical Tech.
Norway, APEC
EU-IPTS Futures, Netherlands
Austria
Germany
US George Washington Univ.
2002
2003-2004
1st UK
Spain-OPTI
2000
2001
2nd US-Critical Tech., Germany-21C Tech.
Czech, Mlata, Cyprus, Estonia
Turkey
Bulgaria, Rumania, 3rd UK(→present)
3rd Korean TF(→2004)
EU(FP 6 →(till 2006)
UK (every year)
Germany( every year), UN, OECD
Foresight is booming everywhere in the world
• Increasing interest in thinking about the future of S&T
– in order to strengthen the ability to anticipate future S&T related issues
– In order to formulate new strategy for S&T policy
• Nowadays technology foresight(TF) is practiced in many
countries and private firms.
– Because TF can make a unique strategic contribution to the policy maker
and firm manager as well as social stakeholders.
– Especially in the science and technology related area.
• The need for priorities in science and technology
– No one country can afford vast amount of R&D spending
• This Seville Seminar is a premier example that shows the
current emerging issues in Foresight activities.
Currently On-going TF activity in Korea
Type
Sponsoring
Ministry
Facilitating organization
Thematic Area or Project Title
Time
Horizon
Methodology
TF
(2006)
Ministry of
Information and
Communication
IITA
(Institute for Information
Technology Advancement)
Foresight for Information Technology
-2030
Delphi
NCA
(National Computerization Agency)
Ubiquitous Korea
+15 yrs
Panel
TF
(2006)
Ministry of
Health and
Welfare
KHIDI
(Korea Health Industry Development
Institute)
Future Trends in Health care and Life
Science
+15 yrs
Delphi
TF
(2006)
Ministry of
Environment
KIEST
(Korea Institute of Environmental
Science and Technology)
Future Trends in Environmental Technology
+15 yrs
Environmental
Scanning
Delphi
TF
(2006)
Ministry of
Science and
Technology
KISTEP
(Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation
and Planning)
Thematic Foresight
-Nanomaterial
-Stem cell
-Ubiquitous Computing
+15 yrs
Panel
Scenario
F
The Presidential
Office
Presidential Committee on
Education
Innovation
Future of Education in Korea
-What we do right now?
+15 yrs
Panel
TRM
(2001prese
nt)
Ministry of
Commerce,
Industry and
Energy
KOTEF
(Korea Industrial Technology
Foundation)
Technology Roadmap for
- Material and Component
- Industries
(Robot, Battery, Semiconductor, Automobile
etc.)
+10 yrs
TRM Panel
ST
(2006)
Ministry of
Planning and
Budget
Co-Work with KDI(Korea
Development Institute)
Vision 2030
- Layout for government Budget Spending
up to 2030
-2030
Panel
Overview of Korean Technology Foresight
carried out by MOST
• S&T basic Law : Article 13 (enacted in 2001)
• Every 5 years (carried out by KISTEP)
• Provide the vision and direction of emerging S&T area – identify new
technology that may have high potential
for growth of national wealth and betterment of
quality of human life
• Has to implement in S&T basic plan (every 5 year, 2nd Plan for 20082012))
 1st TF (1993-1994) and 2nd TF(1997-1998) were Lab-Directed Research Projects
carried out by STEPI * and KISTEP
*STEPI (Science and Technology Policy Institute)
 3rd TF was carried out in 2003-2004 by KISTEP and it is the first TF after
enactment of S&T basic Law.
3rd Korean TF : Characteristics
• Consideration of socio-economic needs and issues in future
Korea and enlargement of participation of the stakeholders
• Application of Delphi methods for emerging technology that
may solve the future needs and issue
• Scenario writing for future society
– Future prospect, needs/issues and technology
– Internal consistency
– Increase awareness the role of S&T in the knowledge-based society
• Offering of policy alternatives to promote knowledge-based
innovative society
Time Horizon : up to year 2030
Project : Duration : 2003.7 - 2004.12
TYPE OF EXERCISE ADDRESSED: National –
covering all S&T fields and the entire territory of Korea
3rd Korean TF : Procedures
2nd Phase
1st phase
Future perspectives
Needs and Issues of
society
(4 actors-15 categories-43 subcategories
(Dec. 2003)
Future Technology
Subjects and Delphi
Survey
Analysis
3rd Phase
Future Social Systems
Scenario Building
(Dec. 2004)
(Aug. 2004)
Korean TF : Sector Expert Panels
10 sectors (based on key words)
•
Space & earth
•
Material & manufacturing
•
Information and knowledge
•
Food & bio-resource
•
Life & health
•
Energy & environment
•
Safety & Securuty
•
Social Infrastructure
•
Management & innovation
•
S&T and society/culture
Delphi Survey
Provide List of Future
Technologies
Scenario
Korean TF : Results
• Technology Foresight with socio-economic consideration (3rd
Generation Foresight)
– Future perspectives, assessment of future needs & issues
– Scenario writing on future social systems (education, labor, healthcare, safety)
• Identify 761 future technology subjects
– 61% of them will realize between 2011-2015
– Korea is still lagging all future technology area
• Korea has the strong competitiveness in IT area
• Space and earth is most lagging area(7-10 years)
• Strong emphasis on dissemination to the general public
– Book, Comics, Movie in addition to formal report
• Heavy media exposures
• Government took follow-up action quickly
– Future Strategic Technology
National Strategic Future Technology Initiative
• Government launches new project to identify
emerging generic technologies at the national level
based on 3rd Korean foresight results
• Critical attributes of national strategic technology
–
–
–
–
Emerging
Disruptive
Converged
Strategic area where government should be involved
Priority Setting Procedure
3rd Technology
Foresight
Survey from
Industrial &
R&D Inst.
Overseas DB
Future Tech.
Candidate DB
(KISTEP)
1st Screening
(Expert Panel)
Survey &
2nd Screening
Future
Strategic
Tech.
Future Strategic Technology 21
Economic Impact
•Digital convergence
•Smart computing
•Nano and functional material
•Cognitive science and
humanoid robot
•Culture contents
•Regenerative
medicine
Quality of Life
• Bio-safety & defense
• Drug discovery &
personalized medicine
• Bio-diversity and natural
resources conservation
•Information security
•Super efficient transportation
•Bio-resource
•Satellite
•fusion
Public Need
• Ubiquitous civil infrastructure
•Global observing system
• Hazardㆍdisaster forecast
•Climate/weather forecasting
• Next generation nuclear energy
•Marine territory management
and safety
• Clean and renewable energy
Technology Roadmapping in Korea
Seville Seminar on FTA
Brief History of TRM in Korea
• Public Sector
– MOCIE
• Industrial Technology Roadmap
– 1st Phase(2000. 9~2001. 8), 2rd Phase(2001. 7~2002. 6), 3rd Phase(2003.
6~2004. 6), 4th Phase(2004. 10~2005. 9)
– Annually try the new indursty area(product) and update old ones.
– MOST
• National Technology Roadmap(2002)
– MIC
• Private Sector
– Samsung Electronics
• Customized TRM based on SRI-framework
NTRM : Approach
Analysis of Industrial Need
5 visions
13 Directions
49 Strategic Product/Functions
99 Key Technologies
NTRM
 Incorporate existing TRMs into NTRM with necessary modifications
 Handle basic S&T separately from NTRM based on bottom-up approach
 NTRM include Macro Roadmaps for strategic product/functions and
detailed TRM for chosen key technologies
InterGovernment
Coordination
TaskForce
NSTC Office
Project Team
Vision I
Committee
TRM team A
KISTEP
NTRM Head Council
Vision II
Committee
TRM team B
Vision III
Committee
TRM team C
Vision IV
Committee
………..
Vision V
Committee
TRM team N
Ⅱ. NTRM by 5 Visions
Five National S&T Visions 2012
1
Building an informationknowledge-intelligence society
2
Aiming at Bio-Healthtopia
3
Advancing the E2 Frontier
4
Upgrading the Value
of Major Industries of Korea Today
5
Improving National Safety and Prestige
1. Building an Information-Knowledge-Intelligence Society
Meeting a variety of human needs in all areas of life by making IT
service more intelligent, mobile, and user-friendly
Anytime, Anywhere,
Any-device Communication
Innovation in Contents &
Service
Ambient Intelligence
Vision
Direction of
Development
Strategic products
and Functions
Key Technologies
Optical Internet Technology
High-Speed Wireless Multimedia Technology
Mobile Multimedia Contents Technology
New Semiconductor Device Technology
Anytime,
Anywhere,
Any-device
Communication
Digital Convergence
Intelligent Computing
Ubiquitous Network
Mobile & Wearable IT
Device
Intelligent Network Technology
High Density Storage Technology
Wire&Wireless Integration System Device
Technology
Digital Signal Processing Technology
Tera-bit Optical Communication Elements
Technology
Digital Broadcasting Technology
E-marketplace Technology
InformationKnowledgeIntelligence
Society
Innovation in
Contents &
Service
Contents
Next Generation Information System Technology
E-Commerce
S/W Standard/Design/Reuse
E-Finance Technology
Business Service
Information Search DBMS Technology
Digital Information Design Technology
Information Security Technology
Knowledge/Information
Security
Intelligent Man-Machine
Interface
Ambient
Intelligence
Movie/Video/Digital Media Standardization
Digital Contents Authoring Technology
Intelligent Robot
Game Engine Technology
Intelligent Home Appliance
Cyber Communication Technology
Intelligent Building/Home
Intelligent Transport System
Intelligent Medical System
Culture Original Form Restore Technology
Art Intelligent Technology
MEMS Technology
Home Network Technology
Intelligent Home Appliance Technology
Display Technology
Bio-Diagnosis Technology
Portfolio Analysis of Strategic Products and Functions
Mobile & Wearable
IT Device
(73.3 billion $ in 2005)
Very
High
Ubiquitous Network
(2.03 trillion $ in 2005))
E-Commerce
(28.7 trillion $ in 2010)
Intelligent Computing
(765 billion $ in 2004)
Intelligent Transport System
(425 billion $ in 2015)
High
Economic
Impact
Knowledge/Information Security
(30 billion $ from 2005)
Intelligent Building/Home
(15 trillion in 2010)
Middle
Culture Contents
(1.17 trillion $ in 2005)
Digital Convergence
(570 billion $ in 2004)
Man-Machine
Interface Intelligence
Intelligent Home Appliance (Creating high-value
-added,
(360 billion $ in 2005)
Complex products
Intelligent Medical System
(Creating new markets,
reducing medical costs)
Business Service
(157 trillion won in 2010)
High
Low
Intelligent Robot
(17 billion $ in 2005
Middle
Low
Very
Low
Very Low
Low
Middle
High
Strategic Importance
Very High
Potential
for success
High-speed Wireless Multimedia/ 4G Mobile Communication
Competitiveness of
domestic technology
■●
narrowband CDMA
modem
wideband CDMA modem
Technology
■◎
■●
QAM,OFDM,Diversity,Turbo code
■●
Power control, Smart antenna,
Interference, SDR
▣◎
Fixed ATM/IP
Wireless IP core tech.
■●
(QoS, Handoff,Resource management)
interworking(GW)
▣◎ DO/GPRS
■●
▣●
Product
■● High-speed packet modem
IP-based RAN
■●
▣◎ Network
High
Medium
Low
■●
IP-based RAN
with smart antenna
High-speed adaptive
RAN
■●
Homogeneous network
Integration
▣●
DO/DV/GPRS enhancements
■●
Active core network
▣●
ALL-IP core network
Adhoc, Bluetooth
▣●
PAN
■●high-speed hot spot > 100 Mbps
2007
2002
2G cellular system
HMI/Hot Spot system
Cdma20001x EV system
Cdma20001x EV-DO/ EV-DV
W-CDMA system/ HSDPA
Importance
high
low
■ ▣ □
R&D strategy
2012
4G mobile comm.
● basic research
⊙ international collaboration
◎ applied research ○ Outsourcing
Corporate Foresight: Samsung
• SGTO : based in IBM GTO
•  Identify Emerging Technology Trends Significant to
Industry
– Disruptive to Existing Business Potential to Create New
Ones
– Exponential and Threshold
– How New Technology can Impact Customers/Businesses
– Understand Customer Challenges
 Has a Direct Influence on Technical Strategy of Company
• Future Technology Center (SAIT)
 Sectoral Technology Forecasting
• Siemens : Picture of Future
 Combination of Retropolation and Extrapolation
Challenges
• Due to Law article, it seems to be quite favorable
situation to run TF in nation-wide in Korea
• But there are several things to be addressed.
• Capability to run TF (Facilitator)
– Not many
– Not enough experiences
• Methodological Competence
– Till now, DELPHI is major method but continued to use?
– What is the best combination of methods
• Impact on Policy making
– Not Clear yet
Thank you
Dr. Byeongwon Park
 [email protected]
☎ 82 2 589 2931