Transcript The EU as a global actor by 2030

The EU as a global actor by 2030
• Context
– Multipolar world with China, India and U.S. as
the most important players.
– Globalization
– More regionally organized actors in order to
increase power of members (especially South
America).
– Power shift from the Atlantic to the Pacific
Ocean.
– EU will have lost its economic importance.
The EU as a global actor by 2030
• European Foreign and Security Policy: Can the
EU speak with one voice?
– Current Institutional framework
• President of the European Council
• High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and
Security policy
• European Council: defining strategic interests and providing
guidelines
• Council has to frame the ESDP
• Decisions in principle taken by unanimity
• No role for the European Parliament or the European Court
of Justice
The EU as a global actor by 2030
– Framework of the Treaty of the EU is illadapted for a Common Foreign and Security
Policy: change or become irrelevant
• The High Representative needs to become a true
Secretary of Foreign Affairs, more integrated with
the Commission
• Qualified majority voting in European Council and
Council
• More power to the EU Parliament to discuss
essential elements of ESDP to enhance legitimacy
The EU as a global actor by 2030
• CFSP by 2030:
– Safeguarding the integrity, security, values and
independence of the EU:
• There will be no major traditional threats against EU or major
conflicts due to economic globalization
• Energy supply: 90 % of gas and 80 % of oil will come from
outside the EU, from instable regimes and more competition
for these resources and increases in costs
Alternative: renewable energy
• Natural resources: a new economic scramble for Africa?
• Terrorism? Remains a threat, but as such not a major threat.
• Importance of multilateralism
The EU as a global actor by 2030
– Conflict prevention will be of the utmost importance:
in a multipolar world more low intensity conflicts are
likely and EU has expertise
• Soft power: strengthening human rights, democracy and the
rule of law.
• Combating poverty by promoting sustainable development,
with focus on Africa (how to reconcile realism with idealism)
• Integration of countries in the world economy (but what about
EU trade barriers?)
• Enhanced cooperation with other States, international
organizations such as the UN and regional organizations:
establishing a network to ensure global governance
The EU as a global actor by 2030
– Peacekeeping: keeping warring factions apart, will be
most often performed in intra-State asymmetric
conflict
• Develop capabilities for rapid reaction and insertion in conflict
areas
• New strategies to deal with asymmetric warfare
• Close relation with UN and Security Council: the EU as
police force of the world?
– Post-conflict reconstruction: Especially develop civil
capabilities (police, civil servants, judges) to restore
failed States while military ensures security
 Goals: establish democratic State, rule of law and human
rights
The EU as a global actor by 2030
• Assets: Common Defence Policy
– Will be implemented by 2025-2030
– A radical reformation of European armies: a EU army
is unlikely, but EU countries will work together to
synchronize their armies
– Lighter, more specialized and technologically
advanced armed forces for rapid reaction to security
threats, peacekeeping, and post conflict
reconstruction
– Emphasis on naval power and transport capabilities
– The EU relation within NATO: A second pillar next to
the U.S. ?
The EU as a global actor by 2030
• Conclusion
– The EU will still be a relevant international actor
• It reforms it CFSP decision making procedure along
“Communautarian” lines, instead of purely intergovernmental
• The EU is the perfect example of conflict prevention, so
export that expertise
• It will be heavily relied upon by the UN and others as a
peacekeeper and nation-builder
• It will keep strong ties with the U.S., but more independent
course, interact with other powers and act as mediator
• Its role in NATO will likely increase