Transcript ELPENenvironment - Macaulay Institute

European Livestock Policy Evaluation Network
(ELPEN)
Erling Andersen
Danish Centre for Forest, Landscape and Planning
Frans Godeschalk
The Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI)
Brussels 20.11.2002
ELPEN
Overall objective
To build a decision support system for spatially
explicit assessments of environmental, economic and
social impacts of European livestock policy.
The ELPEN approach
Contextual
information
Agricultural
statistical data
Livestock systems
Economic
modelling
Farm level
information
Step 1: Agricultural sectors
50% or more of
value of
production from
GL
Grazing
livestock
84,1% GL LU
All farms in the EU
50% or more of value 50% or more of
Rest of farms
of production from value of production (< 50% OU_GL and <
pigs
from poultry
50% OU_Pigs and <
50% OU_Poultry)
> 0 LU GL 0 LU GL > 0 LU
0 LU > 0 LU GL 0 LU GL
GL
GL
GL / Pigs
Pigs
GL /
Poultry
GL
Arable
Poultry
/Arable
and
and other
other
1,7%
0%
0,5%
0%
13,7%
0%
Step 2: Grazing livestock sectors
>= 75% Cattle in
LU_GL
Cattle
78% GL LU
Grazing livestock farms
>= 25% and < 75%
< 25% Cattle in
< 25% Cattle in
Cattle in LU_GL
LU_GL
LU_GL
and >= 50% Sheep
and < 50% Sheep
in LU Sheep&Goats in LU Sheep&Goats
Mixed grazing
Sheep
Goats
livestock
11%
10%
1%
>= 75% Milk in OU_GL
Dairy
42% GL LU
Grazing livestock farms
>= 33% and < 75% Milk in
OU_GL
Mixed production
25%
< 33% Milk in OU_GL
Meat
33%
Step 3: Grazing livestock systems
A. Land use
Grazing livestock farms
>= 150
< 150 grazing days outside UAA / LU_GL
grazing
>= 5 LU
< 5 LU grazing livestock per ha UAA
days
grazing
>= 55% grass in UAA
< 55% grass
outside livestock per
in UAA
UAA /
ha UAA
< 40% temporary grass >= 40% temporary grass
LU_GL
in total grass
in total grass
Off-farm Off-farm
Permanent grass
Grassland
Arable
grazing
produced
systems
systems
systems
systems
fodder
systems
2%
3%
51%
13%
31%
Step 3: Grazing livestock systems
B. Intensity
Input costs
< 150 ECU/ha UAA
Low input systems
24% GL LU
Grazing livestock farms
Input costs
>= 150 - < 600 ECU/ha UAA
Medium input systems
54%
Input costs
>= 600 ECU/ha UAA
High input systems
22%
Step 3: Grazing livestock systems
C. Size
< 20 LU_GL
Small-scale systems
6% GL LU
Grazing livestock farms
>= 20 – < 100 LU_GL
Medium-scale systems
55%
>= 100 LU_GL
Large-scale systems
39%
Location of systems
High input grassland systems
Low input grassland systems
Example of application:
Two scenarios for area payments
All direct support substituted by:
1. UAA premium
- a unionwide homogeneous area payment on the
total farmed area
2. Grassland premium
- a unionwide homogeneous area payment on
permanent and rough grassland
Example of application: Area payments
Share of
farms
Share of support:
Today
UAA Grassland
premium premium
Permanent
grassland
48
45
56
84
Arable
34
38
32
11
Grassland
12
14
11
4
Off-farm
grazing
3
1
1
1
Off-farm produced fodder
3
1
0
0
Source: FADN-CCE-DG Agriculture/A-3; adaptation LEI.
Example of application: Area payments
Permanent grassland systems
58 ha
58 GLU
84% Permanent and
rough grass
FFI: 19100 Ecu
33% older than 65
78% of UAA in
LFA
Source: FADN-CCE-DG Agriculture/A-3; adaptation LEI.
Example of application: Area payments
Permanent grassland systems
Grassland pressure
Permanent grass
Grassland
Stocking density
Crop protection
Fertiliser
0
50
100
150
200
250
Source: FADN-CCE-DG Agriculture/A-3; adaptation LEI.
300
Example of application: Area payments
Intensity
High input
Share of Share of
UAA Grassland
farms support premium premium
today
18
11
9
7
Medium input
51
56
48
41
Low input
31
33
43
52
Source: FADN-CCE-DG Agriculture/A-3; adaptation LEI.
Example of application: Area payments
Size
Large-scale
Share of Share of
UAA Grassland
farms support premium premium
today
13
33
37
40
Medium-scale
63
58
55
53
Small-scale
25
9
7
7
Source: FADN-CCE-DG Agriculture/A-3; adaptation LEI.
Variables used in the typology
No. Grazing days outside UAA
Utilised Agricultural Area (UAA) (ha)
Area Temporary grass (ha)
Area Permanent pasture + Rough grazing (ha)
Cattle (total) (LU)
Sheep and goats (LU)
Sheep (LU)
Total output (ECU)
Output Cows' milk and milk prod. (ECU)
Output Beef and veal (ECU)
Output Pigmeat (ECU)
Output Sheep and goats (ECU)
Output Poultrymeat (ECU)
Output Eggs (ECU)
Output Ewes' and goats' milk (ECU)
Costs Fertilisers (ECU)
Costs Crop protection (ECU)
Costs Purchased concentrated feedingstuffs for graz. livestock
Grazing days outside UAA
Source: FADN-CCE-DG
Agriculture/A-3;
adaptation LEI.
Grassland data
Belgium
Denmark
Germany
Greece
Spain
France
Ireland
Italy
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Austria
Portugal
Finland
Sweden
United Kingdom
EU 15
FSS
18
43
4
13
2
24
17
22
12
7
2
4
97
73
13
16
FADN
8
50
1
35
11
33
7
3
0
0
0
14
100
48
13
17
Percentage
temporary grass of
total grassland
Cost of inputs
Belgium
Denmark
Germany
Greece
Spain
France
Ireland
Italy
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Austria
Portugal
Finland
Sweden
United Kingdom
Supp. Feed dairy Ammonium nitrate
106
101
117
67
96
118
61
104
103
92
115
93
101
112
123
108
104
71
99
105
127
121
104
152
81
Source: DGagri web
Price index 1998
100 = average for
all the mentioned
member states
Conclusions 1
•Based on the expert knowledge and FADN data we have
build a typology of grazing livestock systems
•The livestock systems have different environmental
profiles enabling policy assessment
•More detailed information on farming practices and
location is needed - reference farms and GIS-analysis
Conclusions 2
•We need to check the quality of the variables used to build
the typology
•This meeting
•Questionnarie