Transcript ANPRO Education Simulation Model
Egypt AnPro-Model Manual Item – 2
Principal Features and Structure of the Model
Part 1: overview of the UNESCO Template ANPRO-Model (Slides 2 - 9) Part 2: the Egypt AnPro-Model (Slides 10 - 16) Egypt AnPro-Model / MANUAL / Item 2
Egypt AnPro - Model
Manual
Item – 2: Principal Features and Structure of the Model -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Part 1:
Overview of the UNESCO Template ANalysis and PROjection Model The Egypt AnPro-Model is based on the UNESCO Template ANPRO Model of the Handbook for Decentralized Education Planning. The overview of the Template Model in Slides 2 - 9 helps to better understand the Egypt Model.
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Origin of ANPRO Model
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UNESCO’s country experience with spreadsheet-based ESMs started in late 1980s - pioneered by UNESCO-World Bank Cooperative Program - continuously developed at Headquarters, by Field Offices and by IIEP in 2001 UNESCO (Regional Office Bangkok) prepared the EFA Planning Guide, published in 10 languages - it contains a how-to-do methodology and an analysis and projection tool in the form of an Excel based ESM
the ANPRO Model its objective (i) help education ministries prepare a “credible” EFA plan (ii) ensure consistency in EFA planning by countries and donors
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in 2005 UNESCO published the Handbook for Decentralized Education Planning (2006 in French, 2007 in Arabic) - it provides concept, methodology, tools for education planning in the context of public sector management reform (medium term expenditure frameworks, decentralization, etc.) it contains an ESM analysis and projection tool
the ANPRO Model
This is an updated and expanded version of the Model which replaces the one contained in the EFA Planning Guide!
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Purpose of ANPRO Model
The ANPRO Education Simulation Model is designed
(1) to provide essential analytical and projection data needed for the planning process - the technical as well as the policy setting process
(2) to facilitate plan implementation monitoring
(3) to be used in particular - for target setting, priority setting, resource allocation - setting of implementation indicators Egypt AnPro-Model / MANUAL / Item 2
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Users of ANPRO Model
Users of the ANPRO Model are:
in countries: - ministry of education - ministry of finance - ministry of planning - sector management units at sub-national, decentralized levels - research and training institutions
at international level: - financial donors and TA providers: for international programs like EFA/FTI, MDG, PRGS - training and research institutions Egypt AnPro-Model / MANUAL / Item 2
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Principal areas of use of data produced by the Model
The data produced by the ANPRO-Model are needed and used for all principal phases and steps of the planning process:
Sector diagnosis, situation analysis; i.e. analysis of how the education sector functions at present identification of possibilities for improving the functioning of the sector (sub-sectors) projections of likely future developments of major components of the sector (sub-sectors) under alternative sets of goals and targets, i.e. under alternative policies and strategies projections of the resources needed to attain these goals and targets (human, material, financial resources) assessment of the feasibility of goals and targets material and financial resources in terms of human, identification of resource gaps setting of implementation priorities setting of indicators for monitoring of plan implementation Egypt AnPro-Model / MANUAL / Item 2
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Typical features of ANPRO Model
(page 1)
ANPRO-Model is: - designed in Excel and simple to use - easily adaptable to specific country situations - using existing data; it does not require expensive and complex new data collection
Analytical tools linked to the Model allow to check consistency and validity of baseline data, projection assumptions and targets.
The ANPRO-Model is an instant tool for dialogue and negotiation
:
(i) within the education sector (ii) between the Ministry of education and the Ministries of Finance and of Planning (iii) between central and sub-national level entities (iv) between Government and donors Dialogue and negotiation concern the setting of targets and implementation priorities, filling of resource gaps, allocation of resources.
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Typical features of ANPRO Model
(page 2)
The
Higher Education sector
is
not included
in the ANPRO-Model for the following reasons: •
in most countries the HE sector is under a separate ministry
•
in all countries, the HE sector structure and functioning, its regulatory framework, its stakeholder constituency, its management culture, its resource allocation decision process, its separate chapter in the public budget, its own forms of financing, are particular features which make HE significantly distinct and different from the pre-HE education sector.
•
HE has its own, specific planning approaches.
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Egypt AnPro-Model
Manual
Item – 2: Principal Features and Structure of the Model
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Part 2: The Egypt AnPro-Model
(slides 10-16) The most recent application of the ANPRO-Model is the Egyptian Analysis and Projection Model (Egypt AnProModel) which was designed for and applied in the preparation of the National Strategic Plan for Pre-University Education Reform in Egypt 2007/08 – 2011/12 Egypt AnPro-Model / MANUAL / Item 2
Structure of the Egypt AnPro-Model
(page 1)
The Egypt-ANPRO Model includes all education subsectors which are under the authority of the Ministry of Education: - Preschool - Primary - Preparatory - General Secondary - Technical Secondary - Adult Literacy
The Model allows separate treatment of: Public schools Azhar schools Private schools (schools under government responsibility) The Model-structure is the same for the different subsectors. As example Slides 12-16 show the Model-structure of the PRIMARY subsector. Egypt AnPro-Model / MANUAL / Item 2
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Structure of the Egypt-AnPro Model (page 2)
The Egypt ANPRO-Model comprises the following sub-sectors:
Pre-Primary (ECCE) Model Primary Model Preparatory Model Adult Literacy General Secondary Model Technical Secondary Model Priority Programs Egypt AnPro-Model / MANUAL / Item 2
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Structure of Egypt AnPro - Model (page 3)
Pupils Graduates Example: Primary Model Links between sub-models
Pupil Sub -Model
Pupils
Teacher Sub -Model Recurrent Expenditure Sub-Model
Number of Classes Number of Schools
Capital Expenditure Sub-Model Egypt AnPro-Model / MANUAL / Item 2
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Structure of Egypt AnPro- Model (page 4)
Primary Pupil Sub-Model Population age 6 Access rate to Public (MoE) schools In migration from other area New entrants in Public (Moe) schools Internal Efficiency in Public (MoE) schools
Enrolment and graduates in Public (MoE) schools
Access rate to Private schools New entrants in Private schools Internal Efficiency in Private schools Enrolment and graduates in Private schools
Total Enrolment and graduates in Primary
Population age 6-11
GER
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Structure of Egypt AnPro- Model (page 5)
Recruitment Primary Teacher Sub-Model Public (MoE) schools only Attrition rate Attrition rate Recruitment
Equivalent full-time teachers needed (click to see detail)
Average number of weekly sessions by teacher Number of school weeks per year Permanent teachers Contract teachers
Newly recruited teachers
Total full-time teachers available Gap: equivalent full-time teachers to be paid on a session basis Number of yearly sessions to be paid on a session basis Attrition rate Principals Attrition rate Non-Teaching Staff Principals per school Non-Teaching Staff per school
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Structure of Egypt AnPro- Model (page 6)
Primary Recurrent Expenditure Sub-Model Schools
Salaries (click to see detail)
School/related expenditure per school Pupil/related expenditure per pupil Enrolment Number of teachers % of teachers to be trained Days of training per year Cost of training per day School-related expenditure Pupil-related expenditure
In-service training expenditure
Priority Programme expenditure Other expenditure
Pupil and school- related expenditure Total Recurrent Expenditure
Recurrent Expenditure per pupil
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Structure of Egypt AnPro-Model (page 7)
Classes (groups of pupils) Primary Capital Expenditure Sub-Model Classes per classroom Classes (groups of pupils) in double-shift % classrooms to replace Expenditure per classroom to build Classrooms needed Classrooms to replace Classrooms to build Available Classrooms % classrooms to repair Computer labs to build and to upgrade Libraries to build and to upgrade Expenditure per classroom to repair Unit costs
Classroom construction expenditure Classroom repair expenditure
Expenditure for Computer labs and Libraries
Total capital expenditure
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