Transcript Three Things (I think I know) about the Transportation
Three Things (I think I know) about the Land Use / Transportation Connection Jon D. Fricker 21 June 2007
Transportation and Land Use Issues
A.
D.
“Urban Sprawl” B. Euclidean zoning C. Gasoline prices 21 June 2007 3 Things ... LU/Tp 2
What the travel model says:
1. Changing Land Use patterns will affect the amount of travel (vehicle-miles traveled) – at least a little.
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What economic analysis says:
2. A neighborhood can support only so much retail activity.
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What people say:
3. A New Urbanist neighborhood design is not for everyone.
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1. Changing LU patterns
• Move non-residential LUs into one neighborhood.
• LUs that fit travel behavior, rather than the opposite • Provide LUs that satisfy the most common trip making purposes.
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1. Reverse Engineered N’hood
A. LU Categories by trip frequency: >1 trip/week, >1 trip/month, <1 trip/month: Grocery, Gas Station, School, et al. B. Nr of each LU/100 HHs: Trip rates per 100 HH (NPTS and ITE) for each LU Average size of each LU C. Scale up to 1 sq mi 21 June 2007 3 Things ... LU/Tp 7
1. REN example calc (1)
• 901.58 trips/week/1000 sq. ft. GFA in supermarket • 1.327 trips/week/HH to supermarket • Store area = (1.327/901.58)* 1000 *100 = 147 sq. ft./100 HHs • Avg supermarket size 34K sq ft supermarkets per 100 HH 0.004 • Repeat for all other “frequent” LUs 21 June 2007 3 Things ... LU/Tp 8
1. REN example calc (2)
• Repeat for all other “frequent” LUs land area needed to serve 100 HHs total • Assumed HHs/acre land needed • Scale up to fill one square mile “attractions” in REN 21 June 2007 3 Things ... LU/Tp 9
1. REN travel model
• Let residents work and shop anywhere.
• TAZ size one city block • Subarea analysis • VMT or Trip Length 21 June 2007 3 Things ... LU/Tp 10
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1. Changes in Travel
Avg. TL (miles) HBW HBNW NHB Avg. TL (miles) HBW HBNW NHB
Trips in/out of REN
2.292
Trips in and out of EUCLID 2.407
% change w.r.t. EUCLID
-4.8
0.909
1.012
-10.2
0.763
1.278
-40.3
REN+5 zones
4.601
EUCLID+ 5 zones % change w.r.t. EUCLID 4.712
2.933
3.790
3.233
3.949
-2.4
-9.3
-4.0
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1. Lessons
• Introducing non-residential LUs gives residents a choice of destinations that are closer.
• The resulting reductions in trip lengths are noticeable, but not dramatic, at the neighborhood level.
• The trip length reductions are barely noticeable at the system level.
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2. Neighborhood businesses
• How many retail establishments can a New Urbanist neighborhood support?
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2. Neighborhood businesses
• Shift analysis from trips and GFA to $/HH and $/LU type • Nhood area one sq mi • 5(?) HHs/sq mi • Do “Market Analysis” (next two slides) 21 June 2007 3 Things ... LU/Tp 14
2. Consumer Expenditure Based Market Analysis
An average household spends $3000 a year on grocery-store related items.
• An average grocery store has sales of $600,000 a year.
• Then, the number of grocery stores that can be supported by 100 HHs = $3000 * 100 / ($ 600,000) = 0.5 grocery stores 21 June 2007 3 Things ... LU/Tp 15
2. Household-Based Market Analysis
• There are 1000 banks in a state with a population of 100,000 (i.e., 0.01 banks per person).
• The average income at the state level is $12,000 a year.
• The average income at the county level is $10,000 a year.
• Then, the number of banks that can be supported by 100 HHs = 0.01 * 100 * ($10,000/ $12,000) = 0.83 banks 21 June 2007 3 Things ... LU/Tp 16
2. Lessons
At “normal” urban densities for single family dwellings (4-6 HH/acre), a one square-mile neighborhood cannot support enough stores to cover even one edge.
Density must be increased dramatically, probably by high-rise apartment buildings, or The “neighborhood” stores must rely on customers from other neighborhoods.
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3. Preference Surveys
• Two-part survey at a monthly meeting of a neighborhood association.
(1) Rate the desirability of twenty-four types of non-residential land uses if they were located within walking distance of your residence. (2) Three hypothetical New Urbanist-like neighborhood revitalization case studies, differing by location and scale, were presented.
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3. LU Preferences (1)
• Churches were most preferred, while liquor stores were ranked lowest. (figure next page) • Land uses visited frequently (e.g. grocery store or restaurant) rated higher than less-frequented ‘benign’ LUs, such as an insurance sales office.
• A positive relationship between the frequency of trips taken and the desirability of a particular land use within a neighborhood.
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3. LU preferences (2)
5.0
Church Gro cery Sto re P harmacy Do cto r Restauraunt B ank P ublic Library Dentist B o o ksto re Department Sto re Hair and B eauty Salo n Hardware Sto re Dry Cleaner Theatre Fitness Center P ro fessio nal Services Office Electric A ppliance Sto re Furniture Sto re Jewelry Sto re Video Rental Sto re Office Supplies Sto re Insurance Sales Office A uto Repair Sho p Liquo r Sto re 1.6
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
2.7
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.6
3.6
3.5
4.0
3.9
4.3
4.2
4.5
0 1 2 3
Land Use Type
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3. New Urbanist Cases
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3. Residents’ Opinions
• Opposed proposed developments in center of neighborhood -- would increase traffic.
• Development on perimeter acceptable, but few residents would not walk/bicycle to the proposed developments, despite their proximity. • People would still go to more distant stores for longer hours, lower prices, greater variety.
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• Not this:
In other words, …
• But this: 21 June 2007 3 Things ... LU/Tp 23
Review of Results
1. Land use changes can help reduce VMT, but this is a long-term solution.
2. High densities needed to support “frequent” LUs, but other LUs need a larger market shed.
3. A minority like New Urbanist design now, but this market niche needs to be nurtured.
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