Transcript No Slide Title

Click to edit Master title style
City Issues and Data Workshop
Canberra
Using Forecasting for
Policy Development
Mishka Foster
Economic Development Branch
Brisbane City Council
Brisbane’s Policy Challenge –
identifying the dimensions of growth
 Council land use & infrastructure planning -
historically informed by population growth
projections
 First commissioning of employment & economic
activity forecasts in 2004
 Inspired significant policy shift
How the NIEIR model works
CURRENT
2006
(inputs to the model)
ECONOMIC
DRIVERS
FUTURE
2026
(key model
outputs)
2026
Employment by place
of residence
Population & demographics
GROWTH
ASSUMPTIONS
Land supply and zoning
Employment by place
of work
Current businesses and jobs
Industries
(ABS Statistical Local Area)
Key Findings
1. Employment growth 2X population growth
2. 50% increase in employment a significant
challenge for transport accessibility
3. Residential/economic land use conflict
4. Need for CBD re-conceptualisation
5. SEQ Regional Plan not addressing
employment/economic needs
Employment growth –
double population growth
Brisbane Employment and Population Growth, 2006 to 2026
1,400
Population and Employment ('000s)
1,200
Population
1,000
800
Employment
600
400
200
0
1996
Population
Employment
2001
Population
2006
2026
992,176
695,375
1,164,095
1,050,025
2006
Forecast Population
Sources: ABS, 3218.0 & 6291.0.55.003, NIEIR, PIFU
2011
Growth (No.) Growth (%)
171,919
354,650
2016
Employment
17%
51%
2021
Forecast Employment
2026
Brisbane population growth is on a
declining trend
Actual and Forecast Population Growth, Rest of SEQ and Brisbane,
1996-2026
300,000
250,000
Population Growth
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
Rest of SEQ
1996-2001
2001-2006
2006-2011
Brisbane
2011-2016
2016-2021
2021-2026
SEQ employment growth higher
than anticipated
Forecast Employment Growth, SEQ RP 2004 to 2026 and NIEIR 2006 to 2026
900,000
800,000
Employment Growth (No)
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
SEQ RP
NIEIR
As the Region populates, Brisbane’s
economy expands
Share of Population Growth, 2006
to 2026
Share of Employment Growth, 2006
to 2026
100%
90%
Percentatge of Growth in SEQ
80%
Rest of SEQ
(413,108)
70%
60%
Rest of SEQ
(998,116)
50%
40%
30%
Brisbane LGA
(368,015)
20%
10%
Brisbane LGA
(179,915)
0%
Popualtion Growth
Brisbane
Rest of SEQ
Employment Growth
Population growth is forecast to exceed
employment growth in most SEQ LGAs
Growth in Employment by Place of Residence and
Employment by Place of Work, SEQ SLAs, 2006 to 2031
450
400
300
250
200
150
100
50
Place of Work
Place of Residence
Somerset
Lockyer
Valley
Scenic Rim
Toowoomba
Redland
Moreton Bay
Logan
Ipswich
Sunshine
Coast
Gold Coast
0
Brisbane
Growth ('000s)
350
SEQ Regional Plan
identified ‘Activity’
Centres, based on
population growth and
retailing
Brisbane City Council
Forecasts identify Activity Centres, based on economic activity
ATC
Chermside
BOTH
Expanded
CBD
SEQRP
NIEIR
Toowong
Indooroopilly St Lucia
Capalaba
Carindale
Cleveland
Acacia Ridge
Richlands
Upper Mt
Gravatt Rochedale
Wacol
Springfield
Springwood
The workforce is changing
Employment Growth, by Industry, SEQ, 2006 to 2026
Health & Community
Business Services
Retail
Education
Cultural & Recreational
Government
ANZSIC1
Personal Services
Construction
Transport
Manufacturing
Hospitality
Wholesale
Finance
Communication
Agriculture
Utilities
Mining
-10,000
10,000
30,000
50,000
70,000
Employment Growth (No)
90,000
110,000
130,000
Inner Brisbane & Australia TradeCoast are
key export growth areas
CBD and
Inner City
Australia TradeCoast
Future Industry
Personal
Cultural and Rec
Government
Education
Finance
Business
Retail
Hospitality
Transport
Manufacturing
CBD
ATC
South Brisbane
Bowen Hills
Woolloongabba
Chermside
Fortitude Valley
Wacol
Rochedale
St Lucia
Acacia Ridge
Milton
Health and Community
Employment growth centres have
different characteristics….
Matrix of Top 3 Industries in High Growth Employment Centres
Inner Brisbane is growing rapidly
Click to edit Master title style
Hamilton
Newmarket
Ashgrove
Herston
Bulimba
Kelvin Grove
Bardon
Paddington
Hawthorne
CBD Employment
2006 = 140,205
2026 = 215,009
Toowong
West End
East Brisbane
Greater CBD Employment
2006 = 220,936
2026 = 365,319
Indooroopilly
Norman Park
Coorparoo
Greenslopes
Fairfield
APPLYING THE FORECASTS
1. Identify High Employment Growth SLAs
2. Identify High Employment Growth CCDs
within SLAs
3. Aggregate CCDs into minimum of 4 per cluster
based on ground truthing
4. Split out Industrial/Commercial Employment
Segments
5. Apportion SLA Industrial Structure to
Aggregated Cluster
5. Apportion SLA Commercial Structure
to Aggregated Cluster
6. Apply GFA Ratios to Employment
Structure
7. Identify top 3 job sectors within
each cluster
TOP DOWN/BOTTOM UP
APPROACH
NIEIR EMPLOYMENT FORECASTS
EMPLOYMENT GROWTH CLUSTERS
Lot Level Information
(rates data, city plan)
LAND USE IN INDUSTRIAL
CLUSTERS
LAND USE IN COMMERCIAL
CLUSTERS
Output Example
CLUSTER
1
Cluster Name
Brisbane City
EXISTING_LAND_USE
Retail; Other; Education;
Office; Tourist
accommodation; Attached
residential; Community
Facilities; District/ Local
industry; Showroom/ retail
warehousing, commercial
offices, residential
CITY_PLAN_
Special Purpose Centre Office Park (SP13);
Community Use Area Railway (CU7); Park
Land (PK); Community Use Area Emergency
Services (CU5); Multi Purpose Centre City
Centre (MP1); Community Use, Residential,
Multi Purpose 3, Light Industry, Special
Purpose Centre Entertainment Centre (SP5),
Special Purpose Centre Office Park (SP
2
Low-Medium Density Residential (LMR);
Medium Density Residential (MR); Multi
Showroom/ retail warehousing;
Milton - Toowong
Purpose Centre Major Centre (MP2);
office; other; Attached
Business
Community Use Area Railway (CU7);
residential; vacant; Detached
Corridor
Community Use Area Railway (SR);
residential
Community Use Area Utility Services (CU8);
High Density Residential (HR)
3
Community Use Area Education Purposes
CU4); Community Use Area Railway (CU7);
Retail; Community Facilities;
Low-Medium Density Residential (LMR);
Park; Office; District/ Local
South Brisbane
Special Purpose Centre Major Hospital and
industry; Attached residential;
Medical Facility (SP1); Multi Purpose Centre
Other; Tourist accommodation;
Suburban Centre (MP3); Character
Residential (CR)
4
5
West End
Vacant; District/ Local
industry; Showroom/ retail
warehousing; Attached
residential; Retail; Detached
residential; Tourist
accommodation;
Other; Education; Health;
Showroom/ retail warehousing;
Vacant; Community Facilities;
Woolloongabba Detached residential; Attached
residential; Residential Other; Retail; Tourist
accommodation;
Park Land (PK); Special Purpose Centre
Mixed Industry and Business (SP12); Light
Industry (LI); Low-Medium Density
Residential (LMR); Multi Purpose Centre
Suburban Centre (MP3)
Community Use Area Education Purposes
(CU4); Special Purpose Centre Major
Hospital and Medical Facility (SP1); Multi
Purpose Centre Suburban Centre (MP3); LowMedium Density Residential (LMR);
Community Use Area Railway (CU7)
CURRENT_JOB JOBS_IN_2026
56400
8329
15791
5289
8568
98799
13293
51804
6551
17693
DIFFERENCE GFA_REQUIRE
42399
4964
36013
1262
10387
1059975
Top Sectors
Business Services
Sport and Recreation
Government Administration
Other services plus private households
Printing, Publishing and Recorded Media
Health Services
Community Services
Education
Household Good Retailing
99280
Business Services
Community Services
Machinery Wholesaling
Health Services
Business Services
Education
720260
Government Administration
Business Services
Health Services
Accommodation and Restaurants
Household Good Retailing
Other services plus private households
25240
Libraries, Museums and the Arts
Education
Personal Services
Business Services
Property Services
Finance
182500
Health Services
Business Services
Sport and Recreation
Business Services
Finance
Communication Services
Household Good Retailing
Accommodation and Restaurants
Personal Services
Applying The Forecasts
 Regional land use planning
• CityPlan
• SEQ Regional Plan Review
 Local area planning
• Neighbourhood Plans, Urban Renewal,
ULDA
 Transport Planning
 Major Infrastructure Assessment
Transport infrastructure activates
economic drivers

Skilled labour pool relevant to business
needs
 Land availability and cost
 Transport access for workers and
businesses
Congestion is the most important
infrastructure issue impacting on SEQ’s
future economic success.
Travel times are a key driver

Travel times determine the accessibility of
population to jobs, schools, shops, etc. and
employers to workers.
 Model assumptions based on behaviour
patterns in other comparable cities:
• 45 minute catchment for labour
availability
• 15 minute catchment for retail
expenditure at shopping centres
A 5 min increase in travel times creates a labour
accessibility constraint on business growth and results in
an overall loss of 135,000 jobs in SEQ by 2026
Gold Coast
Brisbane
Sunshine
Coast
Western (inc.
Toowoomba)
Logan
Ipswich
Pine Rivers
Caboolture
Redcliffe
Beaudesert
Redland
Loss in Employment by Place of Residence in 2026
Resulting from a 5 Minute Increase in Commuting Time
0%
Percentage Decrease (%)
-6,771
-5%
-5,635 -10,546
-32,227
-8,029
-10%
-13,942
-11,924
-4,585
-15%
-9,401
-20%
-20,135
-25%
-11,686
• Differential impact across SEQ – Beaudesert and
LGAs around Brisbane worst affected.
• Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, Brisbane and
Western Councils least affected.
Addressing the economic imperatives
 The forecasts demonstrate the potential
to increase the economic performance
of SEQ as a whole region.
 Future success driven by productivity
and competitiveness, not population.
 Inter-connectedness of local regional
economies increases economic
efficiency and productivity
Priority issues
 Securing land for business growth in the
forecast growth locations will deliver
strongest economic outcomes for the
whole community
 Effective transport infrastructure
connecting employment locations will
maximise efficiency, productivity and
employment
 Financial mechanisms needed to bring
forward investment.