Transcript Doha

Climate Change and
Disaster Vulnerabilities in
the Coastal Areas of
Bangladesh
COAST Trust
www.coastbd.org
Equity and Justice Working Group
www.equitybd.org
The Coast of
Bangladesh
Coastal area covers 32%
of country’s total areas
35 million people/ 28% of
country’s population live
in the coastal areas
20% and 40% of World’s
population lives within 30
kilometers and 100
kilometers of the coast
respectively
Socio-Economic Status of
Coastal People
54% Families are Functionally
Landless
High Annual Population Growth Rate,
1.29% in comparison to 0f national
average
By 2020 Population will be increased
to 45 million from 35 million
Number of medium farm
households reduced to 11% in
1996 from 31 % in 1960.
Agri-based
Livelihoods
Percentage of HH
Number of non-farm households
increased from 19 percent in 1960
to 30 percent in 1996.
80
60
40
20
0
58
19
30
41
31
11
Non Farm Small Farm
Family
Family
Medium
Farm
9 2
Large Farm
HH Category as per land ownership
Medium farm
households are
loosing cultivable
land and becoming
small farm and then
to non-farm
households;
The number of
marginal and non
farm households are
increasing
Living standard, average life
expectancy, access to education,
health and other basic services,
social security etc are not at
expected level in comparison to
national average.
Governance
16%
Others
7%
Human
Factor
58%
Natural
Disaster
19%
Human Factor
Natural Disaster
Governance
Others
Risk in the
Coastal Areas
increasing trends
climate related
vulnerabilities
and natural
disasters are
making people’s
life more
helpless.
Typical geographical settings
and low elevation from the
mean sea level
Risk Factors in the
Coastal Areas
Influence of monsoon
Open and extended
coastal belt
Strong tidal force, wind
action, dynamic
process of erosion and
accretion,
Gradual sloping of the
continental shelf
Over exploitation of natural
resources, Urbanization, population
growth, Neo-liberal Economic
Policies, Consumerism of rich
nations, Profit maximization of the
MNCs
Emission of Major GHG Gases
Pre Industrial
Amount, PPM
In 1990
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
484
353
280
280
0.8 1.72
CO2
Methene
Disaster Risk:
What’s Cause
Behind
0
CFC-11
0
CFC-12
Increasingly
emission
of GHGs
Global
warming &
changes in
climatic
condition.
Combustion of fossil
fuel annually adding
5.7 X 109 tons of
carbon.
Deforestation annually
adding
0.6 – 0.5 X 109 tons of
Carbon
Massive utilization of
natural coal in China,
annually could
contribute upto 3 % of
world’s Carbon
emission.
Increasing trend of
cement production, 5
% annually, adding
considerable Carbon in
the atmosphere.
Disaster Risk:
What’s Cause
Behind
Global Warming and Changes in
Climatic Condition
Year
Sea Level Temperate Rise
Rise (cm) ( oC )
% of Changes in
precipitation
( base 1990)
2030
30
0.7 and 1.3 rises
respectively in
monsoon and
winter
3% less in winter
and 11 percent
more in monsoon
2050
50
1.1 and 1.3 rises
respectively in
monsoon and
winter
37% less in winter
and 28 percent
more in monsoon
Global Warming and
Endangered Bangladesh
Parameters
Worst Scenario
2050
2100
Relative Sea Level Rise
153 cm
460 cm
Land Subsidence
140 cm
240 cm
Shore Line Erosion
1.5 Km
3 Km
Loss of Habitable Land
16 km2
34 km2
13 %
40 %
79 km2
95 km2
Displaced Population
Reduction of Mangrove Area
Global Warming
and Endangered
Bangladesh
15-17% land area will be Submerged by
100 cm Rise of Sea Level
20 m. People will Become Environmental
Refugee
Flooding Risks of Low Land will be
Increased by 29% ,
145 km Sandy Shoreline from CXB to
Bodormokam Would be Inundated
By 2030 about 58 thousand Hectare land
would be Submerged
Global Warming:
Endangered
Bangladesh
Worldwide Hydro-metrological
Disaster e.g. Drought, Flood,
Cyclone etc have increased than
Geographical Disasters like
Tsunami, Earthquake etc.
Climate change is likely to increase
such disasters in Bangladesh
Bangladesh would be worst victim
of incidence and intensity of Hydrometrological Disasters
Global Warming:
Endangered
Bangladesh
Bangladesh is particularly prone to Hydrometrological Disaster which has been found
increasing in the recent years
In 2007 we faced prolong flooding, 13 depressions
have been formed in the Bay including Cyclone
SIDR that hit Bangladesh’s Coast
Other climate related disasters; heavy rainfall, flood,
drought, erosion, salinity, water logging , drinking
water scarcity , loss of biodiversity etc are also
increasing.
Endangered
Bangladesh
Cyclone
10 % of the world’s
tropical cyclone develop
in the Indian Ocean but
cause 85 % of the world’s
cyclonic havoc
During 1980 to 2000,
cyclone caused death of
2.5 m people worldwide,
of which 60 percent were
in Bangladesh.
Philippines is at high risk
to cyclone but cyclonic
death in Bangladesh is
10 times than the
Philippines.
Considering
Factors
45 deadly
cyclone
occurred
during 17931997, average
frequency is
1 in every 4-5
years
Frequency &
Distribution
of Cyclone
Season wise Cyclone Distribution
9%
27%
64%
Pre Monsoon
Post Monsoon
Other Season
700 cyclone
occurred
during 18911990, of
which 62 in
pre-monsoon
and 192 in
Postmonsoon
season
Warning System
& Disaster
Preparedness
11 Signals for Sea-port and 04
for River port
During 1980s No Cyclone
Center Constructed by the
Government
In 1991 We had 300 Cyclone
Centers BUT Requirements
were 5000
Special Weather Bulletin
Announced in Fair Bangla
Language---is difficult to
follow by the local people
During 1996-2000; financial loss
was Tk. 54843 m, affected area
567900 acre and affected
people were 12 m
Coastal
Erosion
YEAR
Financial
Loss (Million
Taka)
Affected Area
(Acre)
Affected
People
1996
5809
71680.4
10103635
1997
33012
7756
173090
1998
2201
41519
321000
1999
10535
227755
899275
2000
3286
219310
415870
Coastal
Erosion
30868 m3 tidal water flows
upward through the channels
These channels carry down
upstream fresh waters from
38,896 m2 coastal and midland
areas of Bangladesh.
Annually 6 m. cusecs water
along with 2179 m. MT
sediments flows downward
through the estuaries
The pressure of the downwards
flows, strong tidal circulation
results unprecedented erosion
Erosion
Protection:
Few
Observations
Embankments designed to
dissipate the energy of waves……
IT only can give residents a false
sense of security
Construction During Erosion
Use of Inadequate Number and Size
of Boulders and Sand Bags
Lack of Monitoring and regular
maintenance
Salinity
Intrusion
Sea level rise will cause salinity
intrusion through rivers and estuaries
In the rainy season saline water ingress
to 10 % of country’s area, in the dry
season it reaches to 40 %area even
Salinity
Intrusion
Figure shows that 0.5
meter sea level rise will
cause saline water
intrusion in many fresh
water areas
IMAPCT
10% more land (relative to
1990) will be salineaffected and will rise 10%
annually
Decreases
availability/productivity of
agricultural land
Increased food insecurity
Loss of biodiversity, e.g.
decrease in tree species
and freshwater fish;
Serious scarcity of safe
drinking water;
Salinity
Intrusion
CAUSES
Global warming and
expansion/ rising of SL
Withdrawal of fresh water
flows at Farakka barrage.
Expansion of Shrimp
Farm
Frequency and intensity
of tidal surges
Low relative elevation
from the mean sea level.
Endangered
Economy
1970 cyclone caused
death of 1.2 m people and
USD 86.4 m. financial loss
1991 Cyclone caused
death of 138, 000 people
and USD 1780 m financial
loss
Cyclone SIDR in 2007
caused death of 3199 (?)
Affected families 6.8 m,
Financial Loss estimated
USD 3 billion
Bangladesh will require USD
1 billion to face the impact of
sea level rise,
USD 13 billion to rehabilitate
13 million ousted coastal
population, and USD 12
million to safeguard coast.
BUT the cost of production
loss, 28 to 57 percent, from
the present level by 1 meter
sea level rise would never be
repairable.
Disaster
Global Scenario
The last decade could be identified as disaster decade.
In 2004, Indian Ocean Tsunami caused death of
280,000 people
Devastating floods/ cyclones in China, India, USA
& Europe caused huge loss of life and properties
240,000 people in Nizare affected with famine and
people in Malawi facing drought and famine
The devastating affect of Hurricane, Katrina and
Rita etc. in the USA
Disaster
Global Scenario
In 2004 worldwide disaster caused economic
loss of $ 123 billion most of which were in the
poor countries
World Bank report says, $ 7.5 billion will be
needed to overcome Indian Ocean Tsunami loss
$ 5 billion will be needed to recover the
earthquake loss in Kashmir, Pakistan.
EC-HAD reported that the poor countries are
facing at least 3% expected GDP loss annually.
What’s needed !
Land Reclamation
What’s needed !
Mangrove Forestation
Sea level (0m)
10m
>20m
Mangrove can reduce
strength of Typhoon and
Tsunami by 30-40 percent
Measures
Needs to Take
Local Level……
Training, Skill Development through local government.
Special whether bulletin in local and easy language
Maintenance to cyclone center and coastal embankment
More discussion, consultation on Climate Change
Launching community radio
Emergency fund at the local government especially for
pre-disaster preparedness
Measures
Needs to Take
Rural Centric Development
More budget allocation for capacity building,
disaster preparedness and rehabilitation
Saving mangrove forest
Salinity tolerant rice/ crop seed development
Reducing population growth
Defend rights of ethnic, and marginalized
Professional group like coastal fishers
Resist GMO hybrid and more Input based
cropping practices
Measures
Needs to Take
Stop corporatization in agriculture and develop
community based seed preservation practices to
support post disaster agriculture
Develop alternative livelihoods options, develop
appropriate adaptive technology but not
undermining ITK
Besides PRS, long term development/financial
planning for Sustainable DRR
Besides, cyclone shelter construction support
coastal people to build strong houses those
could even be served as shelter
Measures
Needs to Take
Alliance formation of the countries that are at
risk of global warming and associated
disasters and make pressure and lobby with
the developed counties for loss compensation
Partnership with the developed counties for
appropriate adaptive technology innovation
and transfer the poor countries
Effective Participation in World Carbon
Trading
UN-COP 13
OUR POSITION
Industrialized countries should act urgently to
mitigate GHG emission; halving of global emissions
by 2050 compared to 1990 level.
We discourage carbon trading; we demand
mitigation
The temperature rise would continue to next 50
years even at present level of Carbon concentration.
So countries at climate risk should be supported
with appropriate adaptive technologies.
Sea level rise will cause huge environmental
refugee who should have right of migration to other
countries.
UN-COP 13
OUR POSITION
Developing countries should be supported with
massive new CDM technology
Growing industrialized countries should join Kyoto
system and adopt binding emission limitation
targets from the next phase (post Kyoto
commitment)
Poor countries should be supported with reliable
financing mechanism to implement NAPA ( National
Adaptation Programme of Action)
CARE CLIMATE
CANCEL DEBT of THE LDCs
Thank You All
www.equitybd.org