Transcript WFM 6311 Climate Change Risk Management

Group No - 10
WFM 6311
Climate Change Risk Management
Institute of Water and Flood Management(IWFM)
Bangladesh University of Engineering and
Technology (BUET)
December, 2009
TERM PAPER ON
CLIMATE CHANGE LEAD TO SEA LAVEL RISE AND
IMPACT ON COSTAL AREA SALINITY PROBLEM IN
BANGLADESH
Submitted To
Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam
Professor
IWFM, BUET
Submitted By
1. Md. Mosiur Rahman
M.Sc ID-1009282006
2. Md. Rakibul Hassan
M.Sc ID-1009282015
Abstract
Scientists have recently reported that polar ice caps are melting. This is due to a
rise in atmospheric temparature. Carbon dioxide gas is accumulating in the North
and South Poles are melting and may eventually lead to a rise in sea levels.
Bangladesh is extremly vulnerable to climate change because of its geophysical
settings. It is a low laying flat country with big inland water bodies, including some
of the biggest rivers in the world. Bangladesh is a flood prone country. In normal
years about one fifth of the country is flooded. The total drainage area of GangesBrahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) basin is 1.75 million sq.km and the average annual
water flow is 1350 billion cubic meters, whice is drained through Bangladesh but
the GBM basin area within Bangladesh is only about 7-10% of the total area. If
rainfall increase due to climate change in the GBM basin that will create huge
water flow througe the rivers of Bangladesh. Eventually the monsoon flood will be
more devastating due to increase of precipitation and sea lavel rise that may cause
more damage to crops and properties if adaptation measures are not taken. There
are some areas like coastal belt in the southern part of bangladesh presence of high
concentration of salinity.
This study assessed the impacts of climate change and sea lavel rise on monsoon
flood and land type for different districts in different hydrological regions of
Bangladesh since impact on land type determines the change on agricultural yield
as it is associated with croping pattern.
Objective of the study
Identifying major livelihood group in coastal region of
Bangladesh.
 To review the trend of coastal ecosystem changes.
 Identifying the relationship between coastal ecosystem
and livelihood pattern.
 To find out the consequent changes in livelihood pattern
due to changes in ecosystem.
 To identify the regional variation of salinity on its degree
and extent.
 Review of the impact of salinity on resources and
livelihood.
 To identify different types of adaptation of the inhabitants.

OBSERVATIONS OF SEA LEVEL CHANGES
several estimates for global and regional 20th-century sea
level trends based on the Permanent Service for Mean
Sea Level (PSMSL) data set (Woodworth and Player,
2003).
 Based on a small number (~25) of high-quality tide gauge
records from stable land regions, the rate of sea level rise
has been estimated as 1.8 mm yr–1 for the past 70 years
(Douglas, 2001; Peltier, 2001), and Miller and Douglas
(2004) find a range of 1.5 to 2.0 mm yr–1 for the 20th
century from 9 stable tide gauge sites. Holgate and
Woodworth (2004) estimated a rate of 1.7 ± 0.4 mm yr–1
sea level change averaged along the global coastline
during the period 1948 to 2002, based on data from 177
stations divided into 13 regions.

The Coastal Zone

The delineation of the coastal zone of
Bangladesh has been governed by three basic
natural system processes. These processes are
◦ Tidal fluctuations
◦ Salinity (soil, water or groundwater)
◦ Cyclone and storm surge risk.
19 districts
 147 upazilas
 Out of which 48 upazilas in 12 districts are
exposed to the sea or lower estuaries and 99
upazilas lie in the interior coast.

Trends of increase of Temperature
Sea Lavel Rise due to Increase of
Temperature
Cracks in Ice bars
Temperature Data Analysis (1947-2007)
Mean daily temperature of Bangladesh has
increased with a rate of 1.03 0C per 100 years
27
(c)
26
25
y = 0.0103x + 25.428
2
R = 0.2996
24
2008
2003
1998
1993
1988
1983
1978
1973
1968
1963
1958
1953
1948
23
Some Empacts of Salinity Problem in Coastal Zone of Bangladesh
Assets
Components
Factors
Production
Livelihood Involvement
Effect of Salinity
Agriculture
Fresh Water, Types of
Crops
Crops, vegetation
Farmers
Efficiency, Amount,
Diseases
Fisheries
Fresh & Saline Water
Fishes, Shrimp
Fishes, Shrimp,
Crab
Fisher
Number of fresh and
saline water fishes
Agricultural land
Crops
Farmer
Fertility
Settlement area
Household
Members
Quality
Industrial area
Goods
Labor
Infrastructure
Transportation
Labor
Ponds and ghers
Fishes &
Shrimp
Fishermen
River
Transportation
Fisheries
Boatmen
Fisher Self labor
Floodplains (Wetlands,
depress land)
Indigenous plant, Fishes,
Animals,
Medicinal plant
Local people, Marginal's,
Women.
Pollution Sediment
quantity Ecology
Diversity Succession
Groundwater
Deep aquifer
Shallow aquifer
Deep aquifer
STP for Water
DTW for Water
Wage Labor, Women,
Farmer
Volume Quality
Utilization
Plants & Microbes
Sea
Estuary branches and
coastal waters
Breeding Ground
Fry-catchers, Fishers
Zone shifting
Biodiversity
Siltation Ecosystem
Forests
Sundarban mangroves
Timber, Honey,
others
Baoli, Maoli, Hunter,
Fisher, Fry-catchers
Succession, Biodiversity
composition of plants,
Animals, Breeding ground
Land
Natural
resources
Surface Water
Area
Quality (safety)
Rate
Facility
Sedimentation
Flocculation
Mixing
Impact on Sea Lavel Rise
Climate Change: In Study Area (Salinity)
CONCLUSION



In agrarian economy, where 74% of the labour force of rural area is
dependent on agriculture for employment, prolonged water logging in the
South-West region, keeping the land out of agricultural production for
decades, has resulted in social imbalance. All out efforts are being exercised
to create a congenial environment for well-balanced social progress. TRM,
though it is in a "learning by doing" stage, may lead to a successful model
for restoration of the intricate eco-system of coastal zone of South-West
Bangladesh.
about 35% people face the problem of food shortage and due to saline water
intrusion in the agricultural field the production will decrease of about 47%
of the selected population.
In the long term their property has been lost of their 12% of population and
shortage of drinking water causes problem to 24% of the population. Due to
salinity intrusion through the agricultural field income level of the people
will decrease 29%.
RECOMMENDATION
The recommandations are as follows Recognize the need.
 Develop integrated management strategies.
 Balance broad scale management with targeted
management Involve local populations.
 institutional mechanism.
 Regulations on the management of coastal and marine
resources and some adaptation techniques.
 Coastal and marine resources, as common assets, should
be utilized in an environmentally sound manner in order
to be sustainable and to meet the needs of future
generations.
Thank You Sir
and
Thanks To All