Transcript An Overview of the Status of Agricultural Mechanization in

An Overview of the Status of
Agricultural Mechanization in the
World and the Role of Bio-fuels
by Dr. Geoffrey C. Mrema
Director
Rural Infrastructure and
Agro-Industries Division
Food and Agriculture Organization
of the United Nations (FAO)
Rome, Italy
1
Outline of the presentation
Overview of actual agricultural situation in the
World with special reference to the prevailing
soaring food prices
• Elements of the FAO’s position on the World
food situation
• Future prospective of the renewable energy
originating from agriculture
and
• Concluding comments
•
2
Global Food Situation/Crisis


The issue of soaring food prices dominates
discussion on current global food
situation/crisis.
Soaring food prices caused by





Low global stock levels - poor harvests in 2005/06
High energy prices – influence cost of inputs
Increased use of grains for bio-energy
Increased demand due to changes in diets – due to
economic growth & urbanization
Medium term projections are that high prices
will prevail for the foreseeable future.
3
World cereal production: NOT growing enough
3,000
Million tonnes
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
1999
2001
Coarse grain
Wheat
2003
Rice
2005
2006
Total cereal production
Source: FAOSTAT
4
Cereal stocks
700
Million tonnes
600
Total stocks
500
400
300
200
China
100
0
2000
Source: FAOSTAT
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
5
Number of population (millions)
World population
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1990
1995
2000
World total population
2005
2010*
World rural population
2015*
2020*
2025*
World urban population
Source: FAOSTAT
6
Increased demand due to change in diets
Population in Sub-Saharan Africa
number of population (millions)

700
600
rural population
500
400
300
urban population
200
100
0
Source: FAOSTAT
1980
1990
2000
2010*
2020*
2030*
7
Tractor use by region
Numner of tractors in use (millions)
30
28
25
23
20
18
15
13
10
8
5
3
-
1
2
3
4 5 6
1980
Source: FAOSTAT
1
2
3
4 5 6
1990
1 - Sub-Saharan Africa
3 - Latin America & Caribbean
5 - Near East & North Africa
7 - World
1
2
3
4 5 6
1
2000
2 - North America
4 - Asia & Pacific
6 - Europe
2
3
4 5 6
2003
8
Tractor use per 1000 ha arable land
45.0
40.0
6
Number of tractors
35.0
1 - Sub-Saharan
Africa
2 - North
America
30.0
2
25.0
7
20.0
3 - Latin America
& Caribbean
4 - Asia & Pacific
5
4
15.0
3
10.0
5.0
5 - Near East &
North Africa
6 - Europe
7 - World
1
0.0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2003
9
Source: FAOSTAT
Tractor use per 1000 ha arable land in 1985 and 2003
45
Number of tractors
40
1985
35
2003
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Europe
Source: FAOSTAT
North
Am erica
Near East &
North Africa
Asia &
Pacific
Latin
Am erica &
Caribbean
SubSaharan
Africa
World
average
10
Sources of growth in crop production (% )
1997/99-2030
90
80
percentage
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1
2
3
4
5
Arable land
expansion (1)
Source: FAO 2003
1
2
3
4
5
Increases in
cropping intensity (2)
1
2
3
4
5
Harvested land
expansion (1+2)
1
2
3
4
Yield increases
1 - Sub-Saharan Africa
2 - Near East/North Africa
3 - Latin America and Caribbean
4 - South Asia
5 - East Asia
5
11
1.20
Power availability per hectare in India 1950 - 1995
1.00
kW/ha
0.80
Mechanical and
Electrical
0.60
0.75
0.40
0.40
Animate Pow er (Human
and animals)
0.11
0.05
0.07
0.20
0.20
0.29
0.26
0.27
0.28
0.00
1950
1960
1970
1985
1995
Years
12
Potential for increased use of machinery
and implements in agriculture:

Europe & North America and parts of Asia
reaching saturation levels:





Numbers of agric. tractors peaked => continuous
decline due to use of larger units
Trade - more replacement and/or introduction of new
models/features [GPS etc]
Potential increased use of new implements due to
environmental concerns – Conservation Agriculture
(CA)
Bio-energy crops due to substitution and no new land
area brought under cultivation
New manufacturers => global players in the market
for machinery and implements
13
Potential for increased use of machinery
and implements in agriculture

In Latin America and parts of Asia:





Potential for increased use of tractors due to new
land or consolidation of farms; replacement of draft
animals
New manufacturers’ dominant; their exports to other
regions
Bio-energy crops => opening up of new lands
especially in Latin America
Environmental friendly practices like CA will spread
Agro-industries & super markets may be more
involved in financing of contract agric. production
14
Potential for increased use of machinery
and implements in agriculture

For Sub-Saharan Africa [SSA]:



Comparatively large scale agric. mechanization
projects of the 1960s -70s were not successful
Followed by draft animal traction projects in the
1980s -90s mostly donor funded – limited success
High economic growth rates from 2000 has fueled
interest in agric. mechanization:




New suppliers from China; India; Brazil
More liberal agric. policies e.g. medium & large farms
Increased demand for food due to urbanization
Problems which led to failure of earlier projects still
there – low tractor utilization rates; lack of credit etc
15
Potential for increased use of machinery
and implements in agriculture –SSA

Chances of repeating mistakes of the 1960s &
70s quite high due to:



new suppliers and new leaders in place
reasons of earlier failures not that well documented
FAO quite concerned by this and is:



Publishing a new report: Agricultural Mechanization
in SSA: Time for a new look
Together with UNIDO convened an Expert Consultation
in Vienna in November 2007; report just out.
Follow up activities in 2008/09 link with rural
infrastructure & new financing mechanisms.
16
World primary energy demand for 2005
Nuclear
6%
Coal
25%
Other renewables
1%
Biomass and
waste
10%
Gas
21%
Oil
35%
Source: World Energy Agency,
World Energy Outlook 2007
Hydro
2%
17
Biodiesel production (billion litres)
10
Bio-energy
Use of Grains
billion litres
8
6
4
2
0
1991
1995
2001
2005
2007
Ethanol production (billion litres)
50
billion litres
40
30
20
10
0
18
1975
1980
1990
2000
2005
Source: Global Subsidies Initiative 2007
Trend in demand for transport biofuels and its
percentage of total overall energy demand
10
9
100
8
7
80
6
60
5
4
40
3
2
20
1
0
Trend in biofuel demand % of
transport energy demand
Trend in biofuel demand
(million tonnes of oil equivalent)
120
0
1990
2005
2015
2030
19
Source: World Energy Agency,
World Energy Outlook 2007
Recommendations of FAO Expert
Consultation on Bio-energy – February 2008

Bio fuel production has:




Important implications to global food security,
trade, rural and urban sectors, especially in
developing countries
Rapid increase in bio fuel production is largely
supported by subsidies in OECD countries
Still many unknowns from technical, policy,
ecological, economical, equity and food security
perspectives
Need for a globally based information and data
clearing warehouse on bio fuels.
BIOENERGY POLICY, MARKETS AND TRADE AND FOOD SECURITY. TECHNICAL BACKGROUND DOCUMENT FROM
THE EXPERT CONSULTATION HELD ON
18 TO 20 FEBRUARY 2008. FAO, ROME
20
Guideposts for policy development
for bio fuel sector
Policies should be more market-oriented
and outward looking
 Incorporate environmental impacts
including land use changes
 Promote R&D for improving economic and
physical efficiencies for both feedstock
production & bio fuel conversion processes
 Protect the poor and food insecure – both
from food availability and energy
perspective

21
Conclusions





Mechanization will remain an important input in
agricultural production
Most regions of the world should reach high
levels of mechanization in the next 2-3 decades
Bio fuel production likely to catalyse
mechanization and change the energy situation of
the rural areas
New players are likely to attain a more prominent
role in supply of agricultural machinery and
implements globally
Thank you.
22