Transcript IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Germany and IIASA
Highlights
(2008-2014)
June 2014
CONTENTS
1. Summary
2. National Member Organization
3. Some Leading German Personalities Associated with
IIASA
4. Research Partners
5. Research Collaborations: Selected Highlights
6. Capacity Building
7. Further Information
SUMMARY (2008-2014)
National Member
Organization
Association for the Advancement of IIASA
Membership start date
1984
But since 1972 as Max Planck Society for the Advancement of
Sciences, Federal Republic of Germany (1972-1983); & Academy
of Sciences of the German Democratic Republic (1972 to 1990)
Research partners
73 organizations in Germany
Areas of research
collaborations
Transitions toward a sustainable energy future
Research collaborations to tackle climate change
Projecting demographic change in Germany
The carbon cycle, farmland, and forests
Increasing resilience to natural disasters
Basic research: Advancing the methods of systems analysis
The future of fisheries
Analyzing global and European water challenges
Capacity Building
21 doctoral student from Germany have participated in IIASA’s
Young Scientists Summer Program
Publication output
691 publications
NATIONAL MEMBER ORGANIZATION
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Association for the Advancement of IIASA
Professor Dr Peter Lemke, Head, Climate Sciences Research Division, Alfred
Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in Bremerhaven, is the IIASA
Council Member for Germany as well as the current Chair of the IIASA Council
(2010-14)
Executive Advisory Board to the German NMO:
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Professor Dr. Ulrich Cubasch, Free University of Berlin
Dr. Jürgen-Friedrich Hake, Institute for Energy and Climate Research
Professor Dr. Claudia Kemfert, German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin)
Professor Dr. Peter Lemke (Chair), Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research
Professor Dr. Claudia Pahl-Wostl, University of Osnabrück
Professor Dr. Ortwin Renn (Vice Chair), University of Stuttgart
Professor Dr. Helga Weisz (Chair as of 1 January 2015), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact
Research and Humboldt University of Berlin
The NMO Secretary for Germany is Professor Dr. Meinhard Schulz-Baldes, Coordinator,
Klimastadt Bremerhaven, and as of January 2015 will be Professor Dr. Hermann LotzeCampen, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Humboldt University of Berlin.
SOME LEADING PERSONALITIES IN GERMANY AND
ASSOCIATED WITH IIASA
Ottmar Edenhofer
Ortwin Renn
Claudia Kemfert
Hans Joachim
Schellnhuber
Dirk Messner
James W Vaupel
RESEARCH PARTNERS
• 73 institutions in Germany, including:
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Friedrich Schiller University Jena
German Aerospace Agency
Johann Heinrich von Thünen Institute
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
Leibniz Institute for Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries
Max Planck Institutes (various)
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
University of Bonn
University of Freiburg
University of Hamburg
RESEARCH COLLABORATIONS
Selected Highlights:
• Germany, the Global Energy Assessment, and Transitions
Toward a Sustainable Energy Future
• German Advisory Council on Global Change
• Identifying Climate Impact Hotspots
• Climate Change and Farmland
• Increasing Resilience to Extreme Weather
• Advancing Research Methods
• Projecting Changing Population in Germany
GLOBAL ENERGY ASSESSMENT AND GERMANY
• Over 50 German authors and reviewers
• Launched in 2012 at the Federal Ministry for
the Environment in Berlin
• Outcomes include defining the aspirational yet
feasible objectives for the UN SecretaryGeneral’s Sustainable Energy For All Initiative:
1. Ensure universal access to modern
energy services by 2030
2. Double the global rate of improvements in
energy efficiency by 2030
3. Double the share of renewable energy in
the global energy mix by 2030
Source: GEA, 2012: Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future, Cambridge University Press and IIASA
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GEA - Ef f iciency
Gas
Oil
800
Coal
EJ
Biomass
600
GEA – Mix
Nuclear
GEA - Supply
Hydro
1000
GEA - Supply
Other renewables
GEA - Ef f iciency
1200
GEA – Mix
TRANSITIONS TOWARD A
SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE
400
200
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2008
2030
2050
Source: GEA, 2012: Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future, Cambridge University Press and IIASA
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GERMAN ADVISORY COUNCIL ON
GLOBAL CHANGE (WBGU)
• WBGU advises
German government
• IIASA Deputy Director
member since 2008
with contributions to
reports including:
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global energy system
transformation
sustainability
global climate negotiations
EUROPEAN CLIMATE & ENERGY GOALS
FOR 2030
Non-CO2 GHGs by major sectors
in EU 28
2005 to 2050
Non-CO2 GHGs of the agriculture
sector in EU 28 by source
2005 to 2050
Source: European Commission (2013) EU Energy, Transport and GHG Emissions Trends To 2050 Reference
Scenario 2013. Authorship includes IIASA’s GAINS and GLOBIOM modeling teams
IDENTIFYING CLIMATE IMPACT HOTSPOTS
Source: Piontek, F., Müller, C., Pugh, T.A.M, et al. (2013): Multisectoral climate impacts in a warming world. Proceedings
of the National Academy of Sciences
CLIMATE CHANGE AND FARMLAND
The impact of 2°C warming on winter wheat yields (left), and
average soil moisture (right) under conventional crop cultivation;
both compared to the 2000s.
Source: EU-funded IMPACT2C project (2011-15) which includes the following German partners: Helmholtz-Zentrum
Geesthacht - Centre for Materials and Coastal Research (HZG), Global Climate Forum, and Potsdam Institute for
Climate Impact Research (PIK).
INCREASING RESILIENCE TO
EXTREME WEATHER
Source: Linnerooth-Bayer,J. Bals,C. Mechler,R. (2009) Climate Change and Extreme Events: What Role for Insurance?
IIASA Policy Brief #4
ADVANCING RESEARCH METHODS
As part of the Geo-Wiki project, IIASA and partners including the
University of Freiburg have been leading a team of citizen scientists
to improve maps of different land uses by examining satellite data to
identify exactly how people use the land.
Source: See, et al., 2013. Comparing the quality of crowdsourced data contributed by experts and non-experts. PLOS ONE.
PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN GERMANY
Age (in Years)
Germany - Base Year 2010
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
82.3 Million
Males
4
Females
3
2
1
0
Population in Millions
1
2
3
4
PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN GERMANY
SUSTAINABILITY
Age (in Years)
Germany - Projections 2030 - SSP1
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
82.6 Million
Males
4
Females
3
2
1
0
Population in Millions
1
2
3
4
PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN GERMANY
SUSTAINABILITY
Age (in Years)
Germany - Projections 2060 - SSP1
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
81.4 Million
Males
4
Females
3
2
1
0
Population in Millions
1
2
3
4
PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN GERMANY
Age (in Years)
Germany - Base Year 2010
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
82.3 Million
Males
4
Females
3
2
1
0
Population in Millions
1
2
3
4
PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN GERMANY
FRAGMENTATION
Age (in Years)
Germany - Projections 2030 - SSP3
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
77 Million
Males
4
Females
3
2
1
0
Population in Millions
1
2
3
4
PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN GERMANY
FRAGMENTATION
Age (in Years)
Germany - Projections 2060 - SSP3
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
60.3 Million
Males
4
Females
3
2
1
0
Population in Millions
1
2
3
4
CAPACITY BUILDING
• 17 doctoral students from Germany won places on IIASA’s
Young Scientists Summer Program between 2008 and
2013.
• Plus 3 students from developing countries were sponsored
by the German NMO
CAPACITY BUILDING
Southern-African Young
Scientist Summer
Program: (SA-YSSP)
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Noor Jamal (SA-YSSP 2013-14 &
University of Flensburg)
Emnet Tadesse Woldegiorgis (SAYSSP 2013-14 & University of
Bayreuth)
Verena Helen van Zyl-Bulitta (SAYSSP 2012-13 & University of
Leipzig/University of Stellenbosch)
FURTHER INFORMATION
IIASA and Germany
www.iiasa.ac.at/germany
Association for the Advancement of IIASA
[email protected]