Transcript Markus Amann International Institute for Applied Systems

M. Amann, J. Cofala, Z. Klimont
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
IIASA
Progress
in developing the
baseline scenario
for CAFE
CAFE workplan
IIASA
2003: Development of the baseline scenario(s)
– May 27-28: Stakeholder consultation meeting
– September-December: Bilateral consultations
– October-November: Model reviews
– January 2004: Draft baseline scenarios
– March 2004: Final baseline scenarios
2004: Analysis of main policy alternatives
2005: Analysis of policy variants, policy decisions
Ingredients of the baseline scenario
IIASA
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Energy and traffic projections
Agricultural projections
Emission inventories for 2000
National policies (NEC reports, UN/ECE policies
and strategies)
Database on emission control options and costs
Critical loads and levels
Quantification of health risks
Atmospheric dispersion calculations, regional
and urban scales
Uncertainty information
Energy projections
IIASA
CAFE will use three variants:
• PRIMES scenario with Kyoto (incl. flexible
mechanisms) and 1%/year escalation of carbon
price beyond 2012
• PRIMES scenario without Kyoto
(Energy2030 Study of DG-TREN)
• National projections up to 2020, with national
assumptions about implementation of the Kyoto
agreement (to be submitted until June 30)
Concept of multiple baselines
IIASA
Emissions
Baseline 1
Baseline 2
Policy target
2010
2015
Time
Energy projections
PRIMES scenarios
IIASA
12000
70000
60000
10000
50000
8000
40000
6000
30000
4000
20000
2000
10000
0
0
9
19
0
N
10 CC CC
20 no ith
w
EC
Coal
Biomass
EU-15
C
C
no with
0
02
2
Oil
Nuclear
Gas
Other
C
C
9
19
10 CC CC
0
2 no ith
C
w
0
N
E
Coal
Biomass
C
C
20
20
Oil
Nuclear
no with
C
C
Gas
Other
Accession countries
Transport baseline
IIASA
PRIMES energy projections contain traffic
projections,
to be refined by TREMOVE/SCENES model
Issues:
• Emissions from Euro2/3 trucks
• SUV
• GDI
• Implications of Kyoto
National scenarios to be submitted by June 30
Agricultural projections
IIASA
EU projections:
• Up to 2009:
– EU-15: CAPRI model for DG-AGRI
– Accession countries: DG-AGRI model
– Fertilizer use: EFMA
• 2010-2020:
– FAO projections
National projections: to be submitted until June 30
EU projections of cattle
DG-AGRI scenarios
IIASA
80000
18000
16000
70000
14000
60000
12000
50000
thousa nd hea ds
thousa nd hea ds
10000
40000
8000
30000
6000
20000
4000
2000
10000
0
0
1990
1990
1995
2000
2005
Dairy cattle - NEC
Other cattle - NEC
EU-15
2010
2015
2020
2025
1995
2000
2005
2030
Dairy cattle - CAFÉ
Other cattle - CAFÉ
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Years
Dairy cattle - NEC
Other cattle - NEC
Dairy cattle - CAFÉ
Other cattle - CAFÉ
Accession countries
Emission inventories for 2000
IIASA
In-depth review of national submissions of 2000
inventories by IIASA and EEA/ETC
Emissions
Region
Activity
Past Future Past Future
Documentation
EU (15)
13
6
7
3
3
Accession (12)
10
7
6
3
2
Other (13)
13
6
4
1
1
Total (36)
36
19
17
7
6
72%
53%
47%
19%
17%
Share in total
Preliminary observations from initial
comparison
IIASA
• Some important countries (Germany, Greece,
Italy, Switzerland) report only SNAP1 emission
data and no activity data
• Only 3 countries provide emission projections on
sectoral level
• Only few activity projections, they often lack
necessary detail, i.e., by fuel but not by sector.
• 20 countries submitted data on PM emissions,
but only 13 provided size fraction distribution and
only 8 sectoral data. No documentation.
• List of questions to countries
National policies
IIASA
Review of:
• NEC reports to EU
• UN/ECE Review of policies and strategies
Bilateral consultations with national experts
Emission control options and costs
IIASA
EGTEI will provide detailed information on
• Emission control options and costs
• Application potentials in countries
• Uncertainty ranges
For priority sectors (industrial processes, small
combustion, off-road, chemical industry, solvent
directive sectors)
Potential for new technologies?
Critical loads and levels
IIASA
Acidification & eutrophication:
• CCE will call for updated critical loads data in 2003
• Call for data for dynamic modelling, use response surface
for integrated assessment modelling
• Final data in 2004
Ozone:
• Gothenburg workshop concluded:
– AOT40(30) for forests and semi-natural vegetation
– Ozone fluxes for potatoes and wheat
– AOT40 for other crops
Need for consistent land use maps!
Quantification of health impacts
IIASA
Advice from WHO:
• Effects of PM:
– Mortality: Aim at life expectancy
– Morbidity: Cooperation with RIVM
• Effects of O3:
– WHO will advice on dose-response curves
– For mortality, data are available in RAINS
– For morbidity: more work/data necessary
Are PM and O3 effects additive?
Atmospheric dispersion calculations
IIASA
Regional scale source-receptor relationships:
• Awaiting results from EMEP Eulerian model
• Linearity needs to be clarified
• Model intercomparison could provide uncertainty
ranges
Urban background pollution:
• Starting from rural background concentrations,
using findings from CityDelta (function of
emission densities, titration, uncertainties, etc.)
Uncertainty information
IIASA
• Alternative energy projections provide ranges
• EGTEI is expected to deliver quantified
uncertainty ranges for emission control options
• Insight from the model intercomparison of
regional dispersion models?
• CityDelta provides ranges of model responses
• Critical loads: Input from CCE
• Health impacts: CI of evidentiary studies and
WHO review
• Possibility to model alternative health impact
hypothesis (e.g., black carbon, PM10, etc.)
• How to derive robust conclusions?
Conclusions
IIASA
• Workplan is tough
• Some elements are critical (model, data, review)
• First stakeholder meeting: May 27-28, 2003
• Active cooperation with Parties is essential
• Uncertainty management could become essential