Transcript BA 822 Applied Decision Sciences

Business Analysis
An Overview of Business Decision
Making
Decision Making Process
INTELLIGENCE
DESIGN
CHOICE
•Fact Finding
•Problem/Opportunity Sensing
•Analysis/Exploration
•Formulation of Solutions
•Generation of Alternatives
•Modeling/Simulation
•Alternative Selection
•Goal Maximization
•Decision Making
•Implementation
Decision Environment
UNCERTAINTY
COMPLEXITY
EQUIVOCALITY
• Facts not known
• Too many facts
• Facts not Clear
• Gather Information
• Generate Information
• Interpret Information
• Fact Finding /.Analysis
• Simulation/Synthesis
• Application of Expertise
DATA
BASED
MODEL
BASED
KNOWLEDGE
BASED
Decision Support Systems
Data
Model
Knowledge
Base
Base
Base
User Interface
Types and Levels of Decisions
DECISION
SUPPORT
UNSTRUCTURED
STRATEGIC
TACTICAL
STRUCTURED
MANAGEMENT
INFORMATION
OPERATIONAL
TRANSACTION
PROCESSING
Enterprise Wide Decision Making
Suppliers
Customers
Strategic
Apps.
Tactical
Apps.
SCM Applications
Capacity Planning
Material Flow
ERP Applications
Resources
People/Money
Business Intelligence
CRM Applications
Customer acquisition
Pricing
Promotion
Customer retention
Loyalty programs
Analytical Methods
Quantitative Methods
• Mathematical / Algebraic / Calculus Methods
• Statistical Modeling and Analysis
• Management Science / Operations Research Techniques
• Accounting / Financial Modeling
Qualitative Methods
• Nominal Group Techniques
• Heuristic Based Methods
• Expert Systems / AI
Modeling Process
Objective
Hierarchies
Measures/
Variables
Model
Relationships
Evaluate /
Build DSS
Control
(Dashboards)
Course Outline
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Basic DSS - Spreadsheet Models
Descriptive Analysis of Data
Forecasting
Simulation, Optimization
DSS Revisited