Transcript Slide 1

World Petroleum Council
The Global Forum for Oil and Gas
Science, Technology, Economics and Management
10th Russian Petroleum and Gas Congress
Plenary Session 2
Global Energy Trends and Opportunities for Natural Gas
Renato T Bertani
June 2012
World Petroleum Council
The Global Forum for Oil and Gas
Science, Technology, Economics and Management
Algeria
Angola
Argentina
Australia
Austria
Azerbaijan
Bahrain
Belgium
Brazil
Canada
China
Colombia
Croatia
Cuba
Czech
Denmark
Egypt
Finland
France
Gabon
Germany
Hungary
India
Indonesia
Iran
Israel
Japan
Kazakhstan
Kenya
Korea
Kuwait
Libya
Macedonia
Member Countries
Mexico
Morocco
Mozambique
Netherlands
Nigeria
Norway
Oman
Pakistan
Panama
Peru
WPC Member Countries
MISSION
The mission of the World Petroleum Council is to promote the sustainable
development, production and consumption of oil, gas and other energy
resources for the benefit of mankind
Poland
Portugal
Qatar
Romania
Russia
Saudi Arabia
Serbia
Sierra Leone
Slovakia
Slovenia
South Africa
Spain
Suriname
Sweden
Thailand
Trinidad &
Tobago
Turkey
UK
Uruguay
USA
Venezuela
Vietnam
World Petroleum Council
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Science, Technology, Economics and Management
Our Values
VALUES
The World Petroleum Council firmly believes that the activities of
the petroleum industry must be predicated in certain
fundamental values:
• Respect for the individuals and communities
• Reliance on the highest technological solutions;
• Highest business ethical and governance standards
• Creation of value to all stakeholders.
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The Challenge:
Sustainable supply of the ever
growing energy demand
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Key Drivers to Energy Consumption
Population Growth
1960
3 bn people
Low
2050
9 bn people?
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Current Energy Scenario
Total Energy Consumption
Energy Inclusion
70
World Average: 13.46 boe/cap/yr
Increase to bring CMBII to Spain level: 126 mmboe/day
1,600
1,400
60
1,200
50
1,000
40
800
30
600
20
400
10
200
0
0
Population (Million People)
Energy Consuption (boe/cap)
80
Energy Consumption and Population
Selected Countries (2010)
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World Energy Demand Growth
• Fossil fuels (oil, natural gas and coal) will continue to be the main sources of energy
• Supply of renewable sources of energy will grow significantly, but still remain a complementary
source of energy
World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel Type
MMboe/day
Liquids
Natural Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Renewables
120
90
60
30
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Liquids: Conventional (oil, condensate, natural gas plant liquids, refinery gains)
Non-Conventional (oil sands, extra heavy oil, biofuels, GTL, CTL)
7
2020
2025
Source: EIA Outlook
Issue: October 2011
2030
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World Gas Consumption
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Natural Gas Consumption
tcf/year
180
Source: EIA , International Energy Outlook
Issue: October 2011
Non OECD
OECD Asia
OECD Europe
OECD Americas
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
World Petroleum Council
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Science, Technology, Economics and Management
World Gas Reserves
• World resource base is expanding in view of new technologies and price deck
World Gas Reserves (2010) -TCF
Source: BP Statistical Review, 2011
1600
1200
800
400
0
• World Reserves: 6,608 tcf
• R/P = 58.6 yrs
• USA gas shale resources: 6,600 tcf
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World Natural Gas Supply
• Natural gas production grow will be mainly from the Middle East, Asia and Eurasia, with
increasing contribution of non conventional sources
180
RoW
160
Russia
140
OECD Non Conventional
120
Natural Gas Production Change
2008-2035 tcf/year
Natural Gas Production
tcf/year
OECD Conventional
100
80
60
40
20
0
2008 2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
0
5
10
Source: EIA , International Energy Outlook
Issue: October 2011
• New production from unconventional, stranded gas, remote areas
• Tendency to gas commoditization (LNG, GTL)
• Regional pipelines constrained by costs, geopolitical uncertainty
15
20
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11
The promise of the unconventional
natural gas resources
Resource Base Shales
• Source Rock is the same as the Reservoir
• No secondary migration
• Gas generation window
• Fracturing and microfacturing
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Investment decisions:
challenges and pitfalls
Global LNG Trade
Source: EIA , International Energy Outlook
Issue: October 2011
12
124,168 Wells
487,627 Wells
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Ingredients for Success
The success of our industry as whole more than ever will require:
• Investment in people and technology
• Increasing cooperation and dialogue between stakeholders
• Highest standards of Health, Safety and Environment
• Social Responsibility and Ethics as part of the Business Model
MINDS
Rapidly aging HR base,
MONEY
$20 trillion until 2030
IEA Energy Outlook
13
MILLS
Increasing demand for
steel, rigs, supplies