Transcript Document

Steps Towards
Sustainable Mobility
Automotive News World Congress
Bill Reinert
Toyota Motor Sales, U.S.A.
January 22, 2008
The “Big 4” –
Issues facing the auto industry
Global development of
industry & technology
in the 21st century
Accelerated
consumption of
fossil fuels
1. Energy & Fuel
Diversification
2. CO2 reduction
Population growth
(esp. BRIC)
Growing number
of motor vehicles
3. Air Quality
4. Urban Congestion
120
120
Third crisis,
world peaks and OPEC
plateaus
Second crisis,
Non-OPEC
peaks
million b/d
80
60
100
0.75% pa
demand
80
First crisis,
Non OPEC less
FSU peaks
OPEC
60
FSU
40
40
Other liquids,
biofuels, etc.
20
20
Spare capacity
Non-OPEC less
FSU
0
0
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Used with permission by Dr. Peter Wells
million b/d
100
EIA 2007 forecast
(1.5% pa)
60,000
60,000
World
production
50,000
40,000
World discoveries,
5 year average
30,000
30,000
20,000
20,000
10,000
10,000
0
1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Used with permission by Dr. Peter Wells
0
million b/y
million b
40,000
50,000
Energy Use and Water Requirements
Biodiesel Refining
Soy Irrigation
Ethanol Processing
Corn Irrigation
Hydrogen Electrolysis
Hydrogen Reforming
Uranium Processing
Uranium Mining
Oil Storage in Salt Cavern
Oil Sands
Oil Shale In-Situ
Oil Shale Surface Retort
Refining
Enhanced Oil Recovery
Petroleum Extraction
Gas Storage in Salt Cavern
Natural Gas Pipeline Operations
Natural Gas Extraction & Processing
Coal Gasification
Coal Slurry
Coal Liquefaction
Coal Washing
Coal Mining
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
Growth in Vehicle Ownership and
Urban Congestion
Sustainable Mobility – Overview
A system approach
Sustainable Mobility
Products
Energy
Environment
Partnerships
to power the
product
in which the
product “lives”
Required to bring
these products to market
Life Cycle Assessment and Air Quality
LCA Example –
CO2 from Materials Production
kg CO2/kg
Prius LCA and Air Quality
Solutions—Toyota’s Approach
1. Balance reduction of environmental
impact with meeting Consumer Wants
2. Mass market appeal
3. Life Cycle Assessment
Prius Development
Types of Plug-ins
There are many variations on the PHEV idea
– Different battery sizes
– Degree of ICE involvement
– All Electric Range (AER) vs. Blended Strategy
Engine Stop
0%
HV
Electric
Traditional
ICE
Prius
Parallel
HV
Prius PHEV
FCHV
FCHV Electric
(FC as EV
100%
range
extender)
Electric
Series PHEV
(ICE as EV
range extender)
Battery
Electric Vehicle
(“BEV”)
PHEV Types
AER
- Volt
- Hy-Series
- Prius
Conversions
Blended
Powertrain Comparison
PHEV
Primary Issues
Energy
Diversity
Gasoline
Diesel
HV
EV
FC
△
△
○
◎
◎
△～○
○
◎
◎
×→△
○
◎
◎
×～△
CO2
others
Emissions
○
Single Fill
Range
○
○
◎
×
○
Infrastructure
○
○
○
×
××
Fuel cost
△
△
○
◎
？
Must understand how PHEVs fit in
Plug-ins change the source of the
emissions
Unless the electricity used to
charge the battery comes from a
renewable source (e.g. wind,
solar),
plug-ins trade off tailpipe
emissions for emissions at the
power plant.
CO2 Reduction
When electricity is generated from low-carbon sources,
the CO2 emissions of a PHV are lower than an HV
Well to Wheel CO2 Emissions （Prius＝１）
Prius Equivalent
Vehicle ＬＡ＃４
China
U.S.
1.0
Japan
0.5
France
0.0
Prius
Plug-in
The advantage is big in France where
nuclear power generation is common.
There is no advantage in China, which
mainly uses coal-fired power plants.
Comparison of PHEVs and HEV
CO2 Emissions by Stage
Material
production
Prius
PHEV 60, US
Vehicle
assembly
PHEV 60, CA
Feedstock
production
PHEV 20, US
• Processing
Fuel supply • Transport
• Storage
Vehicle
operation
PHEV 20, CA
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000 100000
Total lbs of emissions over lifetime of vehicle
(126K mi; 7 yr battery life; PHEV 20: 39% of total VMT in EV-only mode; PHEV 60: 74%)
• Recovery
• Transport
PHEV Marketability Issues
Currently, no commercial potential with such a large
increase in battery load
More batteries
To provide 60km electric
drive range would require
about 12 times the
battery capacity of the
current Prius
バッテリ搭載イメージ
Current現状プリウス
Prius
Battery Life vs. Charge Cycle
Li Ion Battery Technology –
Development and Testing
Single
Cell
Modules
Full
Packs
Real
World
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Increasing 
Most “advanced” Li-Ion batteries
Time & Cost
Cell
Module
• Limited “real world” knowledge in vehicle application
– Toyota has experience with mild hybrid Vitz
– Limited number of conversions and specialty vehicles
• Must gain experience with Li-Ion technology in HEV before PHEV
• Key issues to be resolved
– Safety
– Durability (Life of vehicle) & reliability (≥NiMH)
– Cost
– End of life recycling
Full Pack
Real
World
PHEV Contribution to Energy
Consumption
(%)
100
Cumulative percent of
personal automobiles
50
Approx.
35%
Cumulative percent of
energy consumption for
travel distance
Approx.
20%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Average Daily Travel Distance Vehicle (miles)
Source: 1990 Nationwide personal Transportation survey
American Driving Patterns
AB 1811 – Encompasses all aspects of
Sustainable Mobility
Sustainable Mobility
Products
FCHV
PHEV
HV
Energy
Environment
Partnerships
to power the
product
in which the
product “lives”
Required to bring
these products to market
H2
Elec.
?
Urban
LCA
’08
Proto
’10
PHEV
Transp.
System
ZEV-NET
Air Quality
Modeling
Univ.
Govt.
UCI
BA/SC
AQMD
UCB
H2
Infra.
1811
NGOs
Conclusions
• Geopolitics surrounding remaining oil supplies
will increase focus on energy security
• Climate change solutions will fight for “shelf
space” with energy security and land use issues
• Decreased water supplies due to prolonged
drought and contamination are a more near term
threat than impacts from climate change
• Focus should be on most profound issues first
• Societal preparation for greatly increased energy
costs is key for carbon reduction plans