Transcript Folie 1 - Hans

Germany: Achieving 100%
Renewables By 2050
ISES
18 th March 2014 Selangor Malaysia
Hans-Josef Fell
President Energy Watch Group
Former Member of German
Parliament
Political challenges




Climate warming, loss of biodiversity
peak oil, energy security
nuclear and environmental desasters
oil wars, poverty, economic crises
All these challenges are connected with
fossil and nuclear Energies
Renewables will solve these problems
Hans-Josef Fell
www.hans-josef-fell.de
100% Electricity from Renewables
Target by the Green Parliamentarian Group in the
Bundestag and many NGOs
TWh
Source: Green Energy Concept, 2010
Hans-Josef Fell
www.hans-josef-fell.de
100% RE is already reality today
Countries with a 100% RE target
Denmark; Costa Rica; Island;
Scotland; Upper Austria
Cities with 100% RE target
Barcelona, Spain; Masdar City UAE;
Munich, Germany; Msheireb Downtown
Doha, Qatar; San Francisco, USA
Germany
Small Island States with 100%
RE target
Islands of Tuvalu; Maledives; Cook
Islands
Hans-Josef Fell
www.hans-josef-fell.de
Civic cooperativs increase in Germany
In the last three years the amount of cooperatives
quadriplucated in Germany
1000
900
888
800
700
600
586
656
500
400
392
300
247
200
100
0
66
70
70
74
77
86
101
166
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Klaus Novy Institute, 2012
Hans-Josef Fell
www.hans-josef-fell.de
Global Warming
Oftener and more powerfull:
aridity and forest fires, floods and storms
Damage Hurricane Sandy: 100 Billion US $
Hans-Josef Fell
www.hans-josef-fell.de
Oil, Gas and Coal are the Main Causes of
Damage to the Climate



Burning of oil, gas, coal emits ~ 80% of all
greenhouse gases worldwide
Real climate protection is only possible by ending
the use of oil, gas, coal; this means using
exclusively renewable energy and renewable
chemistry
Energy saving is very helpful; but energy saving
alone will not solve the climate problems
Hans-Josef Fell
www.hans-josef-fell.de
Fukushima March 2011
Until 2012 the costs of the reactor disaster amount
100 bn. €
Quelle Bild: BFlickr/Oldmaison
Quelle: Tepco, 7.11.2012
Hans-Josef Fell
www.hans-josef-fell.de
Nuclear Renaissance?
Only very few new started.
All are overbudget and late


Olkiluoto (Finland):
build start 2005; forecast cost 3 bn. €, 4 years;
2012: >6 years late, >100% overbudget
Flamanville (France):
start 2007; forecast cost 3.3 bn. €, 5 years;
2012: >2016 ready (9 years), >costs 8.5 bn. €
Hans-Josef Fell
www.hans-josef-fell.de
Solar and Nuclear Costs – The Historic
Crossover
Solar Energy is Now the Better Buy
Source: John O. Blackburn, Sam Cunningham, 2010; NC Warn
Hans-Josef Fell
www.hans-josef-fell.de
Annual Additions of Nuclear and Wind
Capacities in Megawatts
40,000
35,000
Annual Addition Nuclear
Annual Addition Wind
30,000
25,000
Wind Power
1990-2010
20,000
15,000
10,000
-5,000
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
5,000
Source: Rechsteiner, IAEA
Nuclear Rennaissance?
Hans-Josef Fell
www.hans-josef-fell.de
Development of Crude Oil Prices
1960-2012
EURO Crisis
Financial
crisis
Oil
crisis
Source: Tecson
Hans-Josef Fell
www.hans-josef-fell.de
Price of Natural Gas in Europe
9,000
8,000
7,450
7,000
5,926
5,794 5,726
5,000
1,000
4,479
3,401
3,288
3,238
3,875
4,000
2,000
7,133
5,550
6,000
3,000
8,061
7,656
2,215
1,971 1,881
2,025 1,755 1,863
2,967
1,959
1,671
Source: BMWi, 2013
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
0
Hans-Josef Fell
www.hans-josef-fell.de
The Euro Crisis is also an Oil Crisis
EU-27 in 2011:
•
•
Foreign Trade Deficit:
-196,20 Bn. €
Imports of Energy Resources:
488,476 Bn. €
Sources: statista, 2013; eurostat, 2013
Hans-Josef Fell
www.hans-josef-fell.de
Development of Feed-in Tariffs for
photovoltaic roof systems above 1 MW
in €Cent
55
50
54
45
51.3
48.74
40
46.3
43.99
35
30
33
25
24.79
20
15
21.56
18.33
10
13.1
5
0
2004
2005
2006
Quellen: EEG 2004, EEG 2009, EEG 2013
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
11.78
2012 2013
Hans-Josef Fell
www.hans-josef-fell.de
Unsubsidised Renewables now cheaper
than coal and gas power
Bloomberg Study 2013:

New build Windfarm:
80 AUD/MWh

New buildt coal power: 143 AUD/MWh
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New buildt gas power: 116 AUD/MWh
Renewables are now cheaper, even in a country like
Australia with very cheap coal ressources
Source: http://www.crikey.com.au/topic/renewable-energy/
Hans-Josef Fell
www.hans-josef-fell.de
Solar PV: existing global capacity
1995-2013 in GW
160
136
140
120
100
100
71
80
60
40
40
20
0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.8
4
5.4
7
10
16
24
0
in 2011: 30,2 GW of new photovoltaic plants were installed
in 2012: 29,9 GW were installed
The worldwide capicity has now reached 136,7 GW.
Source: REN21, EPIA
Hans-Josef Fell
www.hans-josef-fell.de
China annual power grid capacity additions (GW)
Hans-Josef Fell
www.hans-josef-fell.de
The world trend is clear:
Renewable will fast increase;
fossil and nuclear will decrease

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Energy consumer countries will go
out of fossil fuels because of rising
prices and climate protection
Energy producer countries must
now this trend
• When they are too late to go to
renewables they will face great
economic desaters in the coming
decades
Hans-Josef Fell
www.hans-josef-fell.de
A Path to 100% sustainable energy by 2030
‘Wind, water and solar
technologies can provide
100 percent of the world’s
energy, eliminating all
fossil fuels.‘
(Mark Z. Jacobson & Mark A.
Delucchi)
Source: Standford / Duke University
Hans-Josef Fell
www.hans-josef-fell.de
Share of renewables in the gross
electricity consumption in Germany
in %
Projection
in 2000
20.1
for 2010
16.3
14.2
25.0
23,0
12,5
17.0
15.2
12.0
9.3
7.8
6.3
3.3
4
3.9
Source: BMU, BEE, bdew
4.5
10.2
7.9
6.5
5.1
Hans-Josef Fell
www.hans-josef-fell.de
German electricity export:
after phasing out 8 nuclear reactors record
export in 2013
35
in bn. kWh
30
25
20
10
5
Export 
15
0
-5
Quelle: statista,de 2012; AGEB, 2013
Hans-Josef Fell
www.hans-josef-fell.de
My advice for Malaysia

Fast development of renewable
sector in Malysia
• Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Hydro, Waves
• Bioenergy also for export:
•Biofuels from sustainable farms (no
Rainwood cutting)
•Biocoal from agriculture and municipal waste

Otherwise Malaysia will loose the
main business of oil without any
compensation
Hans-Josef Fell
www.hans-josef-fell.de
Amount of the installed solar home
systems by the Grameen Bank in
Bangladesh
Solarpower helps to reduce Poverty
Source: www.gshakti.org
Hans-Josef Fell
www.hans-josef-fell.de
Asia-Pacific Supergrid
Study ANU, Canberra,
Prof Dr. Andrew Blaker:
pv plants, hydropump-storage power
in Australia plus
supergrid
will produce solarpower
by 8 $Cent/kWh
for Australia and
Southeast Asia
Hans-Josef Fell
www.hans-josef-fell.de
3 MW Solar power plant Belectric
Quelle: http://www.belectric.com
Hans-Josef Fell
www.hans-josef-fell.de
Z20 – Energy-/Electrical Power Storage from BlueSky
Energy
Standard
Container
(6,1 x 2,4 x 2,4
m)
(20 x 8 x 8 ft.)
Pump
3 – 5 Battery
Stacks
Tanks for
Electrolytes
 Technology: Zinc-Iron Redox-Flow-Battery
 Application: PV-systems and wind parks
 Green Technology: contaminant-free,
non-toxic, non- flammable, non-explosive
 Sustainability: Raw material worldwide
„unlimited" and inexpensive available
 Scalability: One Battery (container)
contains
48 – 80 kW power →
120 – 160 kWh energy; scalable up to
multiple MWh
 Cost effectiveness: most cost-effective
and safest technology of all large energy
storage systems. Cost per kWh: currently
0,10 €/kWh; with decreasing tendency. ROI
approx. 7 years
 Life time: 20+ year life at 7000 cycles
Hydrothermal Carbonisation (HTC)
Process:
Input: Plants, Agriculture and
Municipal Waste;
Output: Biocoal;
Usage of biocoal:
• Fuel: 8 €/MWh (Mineral Coal 22 €/MWh)
• Chemical base (oil substitute)
• Fertiliser (carbon binding in soil)
Source: Ava-Co2; Antora; EU Projekt Bioboost
Hans-Josef Fell
www.hans-josef-fell.de
With biochar rapid greening for eroded
and degraded areas
July 2010
For 60 years it looked like
this
August 2011
Now it looks like this
Slag heap of a US coal mine
Source: Aspen Global Change Institute
Hans-Josef Fell
www.hans-josef-fell.de
Ecological Oil Palm Plantage,
Sime Darby, Malaysia
Source: Hans-Josef Fell
Hans-Josef Fell
www.hans-josef-fell.de
New Book about Global Cooling
published in summer
2012.
paperback edition for
19 €.
www.globalcooling-climateprotection.net
Hans-Josef Fell
www.hans-josef-fell.de
Thank You Very
Much for Your
Attention!
www.hans-josef-fell.de