Transcript ФБ ММВБ - Московская Биржа

Russian stock market’s SWOT analysis:
Moscow’s viewpoint
A. Potemkin
MICEX, President
What makes the Russian stock market grow?
Volume of transactions with Russian equities and DR's
bln USD
350
MI CEX SE
300
RTS
Foreign exchanges
250
200
150
100
50
0
1 Q 2005
2Q
3Q
4Q
1 Q 2006
2Q
3Q
4Q
1 Q 2007
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What makes the exchanges’ market grow?
Volume of trades with equities
bln USD
bln USD
250
800
OTC (estimated)
600
Volume of trades with bonds
150
200
RTS Group
OTC
30.0
MICEX SE
61.2
MI CEX SE
150
400
100
180
29.9
550.2
187.3
200
39.4
50
71.4
141.8
0
0
2005
2006
2005
2006
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Issuers: stale bread or hot cakes?
The Тор-5 issuers equities' price change
Volume of trades with Russian
equities and DR's in 1 Q 2007
%
140
Other
issuers
24.2%
2006
120
1Q 2007
100
80
60
40
20
Top 5 issuers
0
-20
75.8%
Gazprom
Lukoil
Sberbank
UES of
Russia
Norilsk
Nickel
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Second tier equities — «goods in stock»
• For what purposes do you recommend to buy the second tier
equities?
- As long term investments with a positive outlook — 90%
• How fair are the market prices of the second tier equities?
- The market prices are lower than fair prices — 75%
Based on the MICEX April 2007 survey, respondents are analysts of investment companies and
banks
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Last 15 Months — Post IPO
80%
TMK
64.6%
60%
40%
20%
COMSTAR
22.8% I NTEGRA
17.9%
ROSNEFT
11.3%
SI STEMA HALS
11.2%
SEVERSTAL
7.2%
0%
-20%
-40%
•
POLYMETAL
-4.1%
CHERKI ZOVO
-10.2%
CHELYABI NSK
-17.0%
SI TRONI CS
-17.0%
TME
-22.3%
source: Tracey Pierce, Head of Global Business Development at the London Stock Exchange
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Coming soon …
• In 2007—2009 more than 150 companies plan to raise through IPO 30—50 bln USD
Largest IPO’s in the nearest future
Company
Industry
Est. IPO volume
mln USD
1
Vneshtorgbank
Banks
6 000
2
Freight Railway Company
Transport
3 300
3
Generation companies
(RAO UES plans 10—15 IPO)
Electric power
4
Sovcomflot
Transport
700
5
Pharmstandard
Pharmacy
600
6
Ingosstrakh
Insurance
500
10 000 — 15 000
• In 2005—2006, 27 Russian companies have raised 21 bln USD through IPO
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Investors in the Russian market: who are they?
Number of investors
thsd, end of the year
Investors
2004
2005
2006
March
2007
Individuals
96.5
109.8
230.9
278.3
Legal entities
20.1
19.1
24.3
25.7
Non-residents
0.8
1.1
2.0
2.0
Mutual funds,
trust accounts
Total
0.01
4.2
7.7
Structure of the equities turnover on the
MICEX SE in 1Q 2007
8.8
Clients of mutual funds
7.0%
Dealers trades 14.2%
Non-residents
27.7%
Russian individuals
23.8%
117.4
134.2
264.9
314.7
Russian legal entities
27.3%
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Does the foreign capital have a citizenship?
Investors-non-residents on the MICEX SE in 1Q 2007
Others
1 000 000
Austria
24.5 (7)
Turnover in mln USD and number of participants
254.8 (380)
Cyprus
140 376.20 (1263)
10 000
Belorussia
25.8 (81)
United Kingdom
14 468.40 (70)
100
1
Germany
27.8 (17)
Ireland
3 992.90 (28)
Lithuania
30.6 (32)
British Virgin Islands
395.8 (33)
Finland
84.9 (3)
Kazakhstan
154.7 (39)
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How many indices does
the Russian stock market need?
Market in 2006
RTS
MICEX Index
DJ Titans
Russia…
RTS
7.0%
M ICEX SE
63%
MSCI
Russia
LSE
25%
RTX
FTSE Russia IOB
Index
DBAG
2.3%
NYSE
3.2%
DAXglobal
Russia
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10
Structure of trades by economy sectors
Structure of the v olume of trades in
1Q 2007
Number of issuers
120
103
100
13,8%
80
3,3%
35,1%
0,13%
10,3%
60
0,003%
0,06%
0,04%
40
20
11
11
10
7
8
7
3
2
3
Chamical
IT, mobile, media
Transport
Banks
Cpnsumer
Heavy industry
Metal
Communications
Power
Gas&oil
0
0,65%
36,6%
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Reserve list selection criteria
Equities admitted to trading on the exchange
Тор-100: 100 most capitalized equities
Тор-60: 60 most traded equities
30 equities in current index
R
i
 0.3 
Cap
 0.7 
i
60
 Cap
i 1
i
V
V
i
60
i 1
i
not more than 3 equities from an economy
sector (not more than 9 equities from a sector
including current portfolio)
free-float > 5%
common or privileged equities of an issuer
Selection criteria
if an issuer has equities of any type in an index
portfolio, the equities of another type are not
included
Reserve list
(10 sectors)
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Index portfolio starting April 15, 2007
Index portfolio till 15 April (21 equities)
Telecom
3.7%
IT, mobile,
media
7.4%
Heavy ind
0.4%
Transport
0.3%
Current index portfolio (30 equities)
IT, mobile,
media
5.9%
Telecom
3.2%
Heavy ind
0.5%
Transport
0.3%
Consumer
0.1%
Electric
9,2%
Electric
13,6%
Metal
11.8%
Gas&oil
43.2%
Metal
12,0%
Finance
19,4%
Finance
16.4%
Gas&oil
52.7%
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Index family structure
MICEX Index
MICEX O&G
MICEX TLC
30 Middle Caps
MICEX PWR
Consumer
Manufacturing
10 Large Caps
Metals & Mining
50 Small Caps
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Infrastructure development prospects:
what should be done first?
Central Depository
•
•
•
•
Promotes OTC development
Creates customary environment
for non-residents
Offers securities owners’ rights
protection
Increases stock market
transparency
?
Centralized clearing (CCP)
•
•
•
Lowers the participants costs
Increases stock market liquidity
Creates customary environment for
non-residents
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Contacts
• www.micex.ru
• [email protected]
• +7 495 234-48-11
• 13, B. Kislovskiy per., Moscow, 125009, Russia
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