Transcript General Election 2015

2015:
A national election
• Nothing is certain
• Every 1% counts
• Does Tory vote matter?
• And the election just got more confused
Rob Hayward
19th January 2015
With thanks to…
What’s up?
• General
• Locals
• Most of England outside London
• No Wales nor Scotland nor NI
•
•
•
•
Mets
Unitaries
Districts
Mayors
36
49
194
5
Timetable
Process
• Dec 19th
Election expenses commenced
• Mar 13th-
University vacations
Campaign
• Winter
Apr 13th
• Mar 30th
NHS
Council Cuts
Parliament dissolved
• March 18th Budget Day
• Apr 3rd-6th Easter
• Debates?
• Apr 9th
• Apr 20th
Election nominations close
Final electoral registration
• Apr 14th
• Apr 17th
Inflation
Employment
• Apr 22nd?
Postal votes sent out?
• Apr 23rd
PSBR
• May 7th
Polling Day
Declarations: Sunderland,
Scotland, Wales, NI
• Apr 28th
Q1 GDP est.
Total votes?
Individual Electoral Registration
• ONS publish late-February
• Down by 1-2%
Turnout (UK)
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
78,8%
75,3%
76,0%
72,8%
72,7%
77,7%
71,3%
65,1%
59,4%
61,4%
65%?
Inside the House
Grn
1
SH
1
All
1
PC
3
SDLP
3
SF
5
SNP
6
DUP
8
UKIP
2
Respect 1
LD
57
Lab
258
Con
306
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Result 2010 by percentage - UK
2010 Vote Share
40%
Change from 2005
36% (GB: 37%)
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
35%
3,7
29%
30%
-6,2
25%
23%
1,0
20%
0,9
15%
-0,2
10%
5%
3,10%
1,00%
0%
Con
Lab
LD
UKIP
Green
6
Retiring MPs/Candidates (UK)
Retiring MPs
• Con
1:9
• Lab
1:9
• LD
1:5
Candidates
• In 2010:
- 4150 candidates in total
- 572 UKIP
- 310 Green
GB Polling post 2010 (1)
45
40
35
30
33
31
25
20
15
10
5
0
17
9,5
Polling post 2010 (2)
Proportion top 2 / leading party - UK
Con/Lab share
Winning party share
80,8%
80%
75,1%
76,3%
75,0%
73,9%
72,4%
73,0%
70,0%
67,6%
65,1%
60%
43,9%
43,2%
40,7%
40%
37,2%
42,4%
39,2%
20%
фев.74 окт.74
42,2%
41,9%
36,1%
35,2%
1979
1983
1987
1992
1997
2001
2005
2010
Voters: ‘Moved house’ or ‘On Holiday’? (May-Oct 14)
‘Moved house’ or ‘On Holiday’? (2)
64%
46%
63%
56%
Definitely decided how I will vote
in the General Election
ComRes, 14th-16th January 2014
‘Moved house’ or ‘On Holiday’? (3)
• Will others go?
• Have Tories learnt to squeeze?
• Labour and WWC
• Where it matters
Campaign overstretch or confusion
• 2010
Con/Lab or Con/LD. Very little 4th party distraction.
• 2015
•
•
•
•
•
•
100
80+
50+
20+
10
25/30+
Locals
Bradford
Lab
Con
LD
UKIP
Grn
SNP
(106 or 68)
+ Scotland?
Changing the terrain
• Uniform National Swing?
Not even in England
• 7-8 seats change hands (Con and Lab) per 1% party shift on UNS
• ‘Regional’ variation
Definitely
Target seats
Labour largest party
Labour majority
Conservative majority
19. Brighton Pavilion
64. Vale of Glamorgan
17. Sutton & Cheam
20. Plymouth Sutton
65. Argyll & Bute
18. Halifax
21. Dewsbury
66. Dumfriesshire
19. Newcastle-under-Lyme
22. Warrington S
67. Carmarthen E
20. Middlesbrough S
23. Brent Central
68. Norwich N
21. Wakefield
24. Bedford (1,353; 3%)
69. High Peak (4,677; 9.3%)
22. St Ives (1,719; 3.7%)
25. Brighton Kempton
70. Milton Keynes S
23. Plymouth Moor View
26. Pudsey
71. Rossendale
24. Gedling
27. Corby
72. Cleethorpes
25. Eltham
28. Brentford & Isleworth
73. NE Somerset
26. Walsall S
29. Hove
74. Great Yarmouth
27. Nottingham S
Target seats (North)
North East:
Stockton S
North West:
Lancaster & Fleetwood
Morecombe & Lunesdale
Carlisle
Weaver Vale
Warrington S
Manchester Withington
Burnley
Bury N
Blackpool N
Wirral W
Pendle
Bolton W
Wirral S
Middlesbrough S
Yorks & Humberside:
Bradford E
Dewsbury
Pudsey
Keighley
Elmet & Rothwell
G Grimsby +
Morley & Outwood
Halifax
Wakefield
Key:
Lab target for largest party
Labour target for maj
Con target for maj
Target seats (Midlands)
West Mids:
N Warwickshire
Wolverhampton SW
Halesowen & Rowley Regis
Nuneaton
Worcester
Cannock Chase
Warwick & Leamington
Birmingham Yardley
Solihull
Dudley N +
Telford
Walsall N
Birmingham Edgbaston
Newcastle Under Lyme
East Mids:
Sherwood
Broxtowe
Amber Valley
Lincoln
Corby*
Northampton N
Erewash
Loughborough
High Peak
Derby N
Boston & Skegness
Target seats (South)
South West:
Stroud
Plymouth Sutton
Gloucester
Kingswood
Swindon S
Mid Dorset & N Poole
Wells
St Austell & Newquay
Somerton & Frome
St Ives
Forest of Dean
South East
Brighton Pavilion
Brighton Kemptown
Hove
Hastings & Rye
Southampton Itchen
Thanet S
Thanet N
Sittingbourne
Worthing E
Aylesbury
Eastleigh +
Portsmouth S +
Target seats (South)
London
Hendon
Brent C
Brentford & Isleworth
Enfield N
Croydon C
Harrow E
Ealing C
Hampstead & Kilburn
Sutton & Cheam
Eastern
Thurrock+
Norwich S
Waveney
Bedford
Ipswich
Stevenage
Watford
Norwich N
Great Yarmouth +
Target seats (Nations)
Wales
Cardiff N
Arfon
Carmarthen W & S Pembs
Vale of Glamorgan
Carmarthen E & Dinefwr
Scotland:
Dundee East
E Dumbarton
Edinburgh W
Argyll & Bute
Dumfriesshire
Scotland (1)
• LD overpolled in 2005
• Lab overpolled in 2010
Seats
Vote %
Change in
vote %
Lab
41
42%
+2.5
LD
11
19%
-3.7
SNP
6
20%
+2.3
Con
1
17%
+0.9
Scotland (2)
Post-referendum local by-elections (mostly rural): party vote share changes v 2012
40
SNP
Lab
Con
37,2
30
+
20
10,3 *
10,1
10
6,5
3,2
6,4
1,9
0
-10
-5,2
-6,2
-0,9
-2,8
-0,7
-5,3
-3,3
-10,8
-14,9
-20
-30
-32,5
-40
* - did not stand in 2012
Lib Dems
• 57 seats
• Scotland
11 seats
• South West
15 seats
• (University)
above)
12 seats* (approx assessment. NB overlap with categories
• Will lose virtually half of Parliamentary Party
• First 18 split:
9 Lab, 9 Tory
• Thereafter (8):
mostly SNP and Tory
‘Minor’ Party Impact
• 100 seats
UKIP vote markedly bigger than majority
(12.5%, 5,500-6,500 votes)
• 25 seats
Green vote markedly bigger than majority
(5%, 2,000-3,000 votes)
Polls & Results (1)
within margin of error but….?
2014 Euro (6 polls)
Actual
Con
24
Lab
25
LD
7
UKIP
27
Grn
8
Correct
0
1
3
1
0
Understate -1%
- more %
1
4
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
5
Overstate +1%
+ more%
0
1
1
4
0
2
0
4
0
1
Average ‘miss’
-2.2% +2%
+0.5% +3%
-1.7%
Polls & Results (2)
2014 By-elections (5 seats 10 polls)
Con
Lab
LD
UKIP
Green
Correct
0
1
3
0
1*
Understate -1%
- more %
2
6
1
0
1
0
0
4
2*
-*
Overstate +1%
+ more%
1
1
0
8
4
2
1
5
1*
-*
Average ‘miss’
-1.8% +3.7% +0.8% -1.1% -1.5%
Results & polls (3)
2014 local elections - Rallings & Thrasher National Equivalent Vote
Actual
Con
30
Lab
31
LD
11
UKIP
18
Polls+
32
+2
36
+5
8
-3
15
-3
All ‘actuals’ are rounded
*represents inadequate data, figure in red is presumed calculation
+ Figures for 2014 locals polls are based on Wikipedia
‘Average ‘miss’ is arrived at by taking ‘actual ‘miss’, totalling the misses, and then
dividing by number of samples
• Every 1% counts
• (Turnout, IER, polls, incumbency, regions)
2015: THE SEQUEL?