Transcript Document
Avalanche warning service in Romania after 4 winter seasons Narcisa Milian, Adrian David ROMANIA Romanian National Administration of Meteorology organigrame – The Regional Forecasting Centers and Radar network MRGC Transilvania Nord MRGC Moldova MRGC MRGC Transilvania Sud Banat MRGC Dobrogea MRGC Oltenia ANM Snow measurements = Nival meteorology – a baby in romanian meteorology • The nivo-meteorological network started functioning in February 2004, by performing specific observations within three synoptic stations belonging to NMA, in Bucegi Massif (Sinaia 1500, Omu Peak) and Fagaras (Balea Lake). • In 2005 two more meteorological stations started the specific observations (Predeal 1090 m and Postavaru 1789 m) • The observations and measurements are performed in observation points generally situated at altitudes varying between 1000 and 2500 meters. Rodnei, Călimani & Maramureşului Mt. Legend meteorological stations working since 2005 proposal for future development Bihor Mt. Bâlea Lac Postavaru; Vârful Omu Predeal Sinaia 1500 Parâng, Vâlcan & Retezat Mt. Bucegi, Făgăraş, Piatra Craiului & Leaota Mt. Training • Performed at CEN Grenoble – Meteo France : for forecasters - 3 x 2 stages • The technicians from the meteorological stations performing specific snow observations Used methods • Weather standard parameters twice a day, at 8 and 13 o’clock : cloudiness, wind, temperature, precipitation, snow cover depth and quality, snow drifted over the mountain crests • Snow cover quality parameters • Once a week, one or more snow cover soundings and a stratigraphic profile are performed, allowing the analysis of the snow cover internal structure. • First estimation of local snow stability • Avalanche activity reports GELINIV 2.10 Developed by CEN (Meteo France) Integrated Software for Snow Data Analysis. Input of the datas – at the meteo stations and at the forecasting center • Snow pack structure parameters • Correlation of weather and snow parameters • Climatology analysis on 3 weeks, 1 month, year • Snow-pack structure analysis on 3 weeks, 1 month, year Example: monthly parameters – meteorological and specific snow parameters One year parameters - Vârful Omu meteo station: decembrie2005-aprilie 2006 Snow layer profile graphics under GELINIV 2.10 Estimating the avalanche risk • First interpretation of snow pack stability from soundings, snow profiles, stability test and observed parameters • Integration of all measured data, weather forecast data, satellite and radar data in GELINV and CROCUS MEPRA PC version Roumanie 2004 programs • Probability of the avalanche risk for different altitudes, orientations and slopes (Crocus Mepra) • Interpretation of estimated risk calculated with Crocus Mepra PC modeling program in relation with avalanche hazard maps, satellite data, reported avalanche events and other relevant information • Correlating meteorological and snow pack parameters with terrain parameters Output data CROCUS MEPRA PC version Roumanie 2004 • Snow layer evolution and forecast • Avalanche risk estimations • Avalanche risk forecast for different terrain condition at presumed same snow layer The european avalanche risk scale, translated and adapted - included at the end of all bulletins SCALA EUROPEANĂ DE RISC DE AVALANŞĂ 1 – RISC REDUS - stratul de zăpadă este în general stabilizat pe majoritatea pantelor; declanşarea avalanşei este posibilă doar în cazul unei supraîncărcări mari a stratului de zăpadă de pe pantele înclinate. Spontan se pot produce doar curgeri sau avalanşe de mici dimensiuni. 2 – RISC MODERAT - pe anumite pante suficient de înclinate, stratul de zăpadă este mediu stabilizat; în rest este stabil. Declanşările de avalanşe sunt posibile mai ales din cauza supraîncărcării (cu schiori sau turişti) şi pe unele pante ce sunt descrise în buletin. Nu sunt aşteptate declanşările spontane de avalanşe de mare amploare. 3 – RISC ÎNSEMNAT - pe numeroase pante suficient de înclinate, stratul de zăpadă este mediu sau puţin stabilizat; declanşările sunt posibile chiar în condiţiile unei slabe supraîncărcări şi pe numeroase pante, mai ales pe cele descrise în buletin; în anumite situaţii sunt posibile unele declanşări spontane de avalanşe medii şi câteodată chiar avalanşe mari. 4 – RISC MARE - stratul de zăpadă este puţin stabilizat pe majoritatea pantelor suficient de înclinate; declanşarea este probabilă chiar şi printr-o slabă supraîncărcare, pe numeroase pante suficient de înclinate, în anumite situaţii sunt de aşteptat numeroase declanşări spontane de avalanşe medii şi câteodată chiar mari. 5 – RISC FOARTE MARE - instabilitatea stratului de zăpadă este generalizată; se produc spontan numeroase declanşări de avalanşe de mari dimensiuni, inclusiv pe pante puţin abrupte Nivometeorological flow Meteorological stations with nivological program SALVAMONT Other informations: Internet, mass media, turistic clubs Data base Sibiu Regional Meteorological Forecasting Center Users: city halls, district councils, mass media, touristic resorts, Romsilva (forest), district transport, etc. Legend: Main nivometeorological data flow Meteorological flow (verifying the nivometeorological observations) Data flow between NMA (National Administration of Meteorology) and SALVAMONT (Mountain Rescue Teams) Data flow to and from other users Products • Daily snow and avalanche bulletin: 15.12. – 15.05 • Periodical snow and avalanche bulletin: 15.11. – 14.12 and 15.05. – 1.06. • Annual report of snow and avalanche situation • Investigations for avalanches with juridical importance • Avalanche warnings – in case avalanche risk is greater than 4 Dissemination of the avalanche risk bulletin • The first avalanche risk bulletin was issued one year after the first snow observations, in january 2005 • The activity was still "experimental" due to the lack of an avalanche cadastre. • The dissemination of information started in January 2006, to the local mountain rescue teams concercend, alpine clubs and organizations that have included the bulletin on their web-resources: www.0salvamont.ro , www.alpinet.ro , www.clubulalpinroman.org and www.carpati.org . • For the cases with high risk, warnings have also been released towards the mass media. • Since april 14, 2007 the bulletin can be found on the official site of the Romanian NMA: www.inmh.ro – only in romanian • It is now posted on the European Avalanche Services site : www.slf.ch Specific internet sites posting the NMA avalanche bulletin Description of the programme • Official web site of Romanian NMA: both in english and romanian • internal site of SMPTFL (Severe Meteorological Phenomena Technical Forecasting Laboratory) – Short description of the activity – Annual reports – Study cases Annual reports 2004-2005 winter: 146 avalanche bulletins (06.01.2005-30.05.2005) 2005-2006 winter: 162 avalanche bulletins (18.10.2005-15.05.2006) 2006-2007 winter: 185 avalanche bulletins (31.11.2005-10.05.2005) • beginning of snow-cover: oct 16 (in lower altitudes on dec 19) • great amount of new snow on several episodes (especially Balea-Lac & Postavaru) • absolut maximum of snow cover 370 cm – Balea-Lac, march 23 • little snowfall at lower altitudes • only one more snowfall after march 27 (april 4) • rapid decrease of snowcover since may 05 – end of the winter at may 31 Greater amonuts of snow at higher altitudes Though less in 2006-2007 less snow The greatest in 2006-2007 amonut of snow in 2006-2007 and last 4 winters Evolution of snow cover in the last 4 winters • beginning of snow-cover: oct 16 (in lower altitudes on dec 19) • 30 continuous days the snow height was over 3 m – the longest period since observations are made • new snow: several episodes with over 30 cm/24 h; march 21-24: 107 cm of new snow (61 cm / 24 h) • rapid decrease of snowcover since may 05, due to warming and southern winds Meteorological parameters (snow cover, new snow, temperature and avalanche danger level) for the Fagaras Mt. (Balea-Lac meteo station / avalanche occurrence Avalanche risk vs reported avalanche occurence Greater risk in Fagaras Mt: - the most used level 3 vs level 2 in Bucegi Mt. - 2 days with risk 5 – after important snowfalls - most of them over 1800/2000 m • • • january: level 2 and 4 most used february and march: level 3 most used april and may: using level 3 for over 1800/2000 m • • • january, february, april and may : level 3 most used , many times for over 1800/2000 m march: level 4 most used ; level 5 november and december : level 2 Constant number of visitors A “peak” of 324 visitors corresponding with a warning Avalanches during the 2006-2007 winter Mass media impact Increasing news about avalanches • Papers • Radios • TV news • Specific internet sites : touristic clubs, alpine clubs, mountain rescue teams sites Avalanche terms dictionary - working on it … Avalanche data base Conclusions • The snow & avalanche bulletin = important tool for taking decisions regarding winter sports in free terrain • Snow & avalanche forecast is possible only with a consulting directly parameters on terrain • Extension of measurement net for weather and snow parameters is needed • Improving communication between people / institutions who work & live in mountains, through all available ways • Link with avalanche risk maps • Continuous improvement of local snow & avalanche forecast, based on detailed terrain data • Analyze of avalanche events in details (need for more professional reports on site) Thank you! Danke! Merci! Multumesc!