Transcript Slide 1

Boeing Studies
Related to a Future, Flight Based,
Personal Transportation System
Richard D. Jones
[email protected]
Boeing Phantom Works
BOEING is a trademark of Boeing Management Company.
Copyright © 2005 Boeing. All rights reserved.
BOEING is a trademark of Boeing Management Company.
Copyright © 2006 Boeing. All rights reserved.
BT_PW_Sub_no-icon.ppt | 8/4/2005
EOT_PW_no-icon.ppt | 6/7/2006 | 1
U.S. Air Travel and Airport Timeline
Engineering, Operations & Technology | Phantom Works
Market may split with new large platforms using
Number of passengers/vehicle
Existing NAS and airport infrastructure will reach
existing NAS and small point-to-point platforms
capacity
with excess
currentcapacity
single and
twin aisle
platforms
relieving
(premium
pricing)
30 “Mega-Airports”
150 “Hub” Airports
30 “Mega-Airports”
Twin Aisle Commercial
Single Aisle Commercial
3,000 Airports
Twin
Engine
Single
Engine
1920
Copyright © 2005 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Regional Jet
87 Airports with towers (1959)
18,000 Airports
807 Airports (1930)
Time (Years)
Air Taxi
1,000,000+ “ports”
2000
PAV
2020
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Transportation Options
Choices as of 2002
Engineering, Operations & Technology | Phantom Works
1000+ Miles
500-1000 Miles
50-500 Miles
0-50 Miles
light rail car
scooter bicycle
city bus subway
rail
walk taxi
Regional
bus
regional bus
commercial aircraft
Copyright © 2005 Boeing. All rights reserved.
rail
rail
Opportunity exists for innovative
transportation solution that provides
increased range, speed, and flexibility
and a competitive cost
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PTS Opportunity Space
Engineering, Operations & Technology | Phantom Works
Intra – Metro Area
Private Ground
Vehicle
Public Transit
• Busses
• Subway/Light Rail (intra-metro)
• Rail (inter-metro)
• Water Taxi & Ferries
Walking
Urban
Core
Private Air Vehicle
• Rotorcraft
• Fixed Wing
• Auto (e.g.,
Smart Car),
Bicycle,
Motorcycle,
Segway, Other
Commercial
PTS
PTS
• Air & Air Taxi
• Surface Taxi
• Flex Car
• Rental Car
• Ships
Other?
Inter – Metro Area
Walking
Inter – Continental
Private Air
Vehicle
• Fixed
Wing
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Commercial
• Air
• Ships
Commercial
Private Air Vehicle
• Rotorcraft
• Fixed Wing
• Air & Air Taxi
• Surface Taxi
• Flex Car
• Rental Car
• Ships
Other?
Public Transit
Private Ground
Vehicle
• Auto (e.g.,
Smart Car),
Bicycle,
Motorcycle,
Segway, Other
• Busses
• Subway/Light Rail (intra-metro)
• Rail (inter-metro)
• Water Taxi & Ferries
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Long Range PTS Vision
Total Systems Concept of Operations
Engineering, Operations & Technology | Phantom Works
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Cost of Commuting Today
Engineering, Operations & Technology | Phantom Works
Total cost of traffic congestion to US economy in lost productivity and wasted fuel
(5.7B gal.) is almost $67.5B (0.7% of GDP) or $1160 per traveler2
Gas, $0.08
Maintenance,
$0.05
Time, $0.25
Tires, $0.01
Time, $0.08
Finance Charge,
$0.06
Insurance, $0.06
Depreciation,
$0.27
Total $0.82 mile1
15,000 miles/year
30 mph
$7.63/hr value of time
Gas $2.50/gal
30 mpg
$12,263/year
Maintenance,
$0.05
Tires, $0.01
License&Tax,
$0.04
Finance Charge,
$0.06
Gas, $0.08
Insurance, $0.06
License&Tax,
$0.04
Depreciation,
$0.27
Total $0.64 mile1
15,000 miles/year
100 mph
$7.63/hr value of time
Gas $2.50/gal
30 mpg
$9,592.50/year
Gas, $0.08
Maintenance,
$0.05
Gas, $0.08
Maintenance,
Tires,
$0.01$0.05
Insurance,
$0.06
License&Tax, $0.04
Tires, $0.01
Insurance, $0.06
Depreciation, $0.27
License&Tax,
$0.04
Finance Charge,
$0.06
Time, $0.50
Depreciation,
$0.27
Total $2.23 mile1
Time, $1.67
15,000 miles/year
30 mph
$50/hr value of time
Gas $2.50/gal
Source
30 mpg
1) AAA
$33,448/year
2) Texas
Transportation
Inst.reserved.
Copyright
© 2005 Boeing. All rights
Finance Charge,
$0.06
Total $1.06 mile1
15,000 miles/year
100 mph
$50/hr value of time
Gas $2.50/gal
30 mpg
$15,948/year
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The Only Way to Economically Go Fast, is to Fly!
Engineering, Operations & Technology | Phantom Works
• At Speeds Greater then 125 miles/hr Wings are better then Wheels
• A 747 consumes approx 0.016 gal/passenger mile at 560 miles/hr
vs. two people in a car (30 mpg) gets the same at 55 mph.
• Mooney m20J (227 mph) 280 hp range 1840 nmi vs. Porsche
Cayman 295 hp max 171 mph.
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Personal Transportation Systems Vision
Engineering, Operations & Technology | Phantom Works
• An unprecedented, intelligent, and sustainable total
system transportation solution for people
• improving safety, reliability and security
• reducing community noise and environmental impacts
• utilizing a cooperative, real-time, and adaptive networked
information management capability
• integrating with current and emerging urban transportation
developments
• servicing
– major metro areas
– mid-size cities
– between population center
GOALS: 1) Reduce Urban Congestion
2) Increase Personal Mobility
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Personal Transportation Systems Vision
Engineering, Operations & Technology | Phantom Works
• Operator Independent Safety
• Automatic Ground Collision Avoidance
• Automated Air Traffic Management
– Automatic De-confliction and Collision Avoidance
– Network Based Data Communication
• Integrated Vehicle Health and Contingency Management
– Emergency Autoland
– Automated Weight and Balance
• Advanced Flight Controls
– Logical Human/Machine Interface
– Fault Resilient Flight Controls
– Automatic Upset Prevention and Recovery
GOALS: 1) Make it the Safest Means of
Transportation
2) Open up Flight to Mass Market
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PTS 2020 “GOTCHA”
Total&Personal
Engineering, Operations
TechnologyTransportation
| Phantom WorksSystem Solution providing:
• On demand air travel to more people in more communities
• Reduced travel time for medium-range trips compared to automobile
• Improved mobility available to a broader spectrum of people
VISION
GOALS
Improve
Single Pilot
Performance for
Safety, Accuracy
and Ease-of-Use
Safe, Reliable,
Secure Air
Vehicles &
Systems
* Exact requirements
to be determined upon
system design and
vehicle selection
Affordable
Acquisition and
Operating Costs
Increase Capacity,
Safety and
Security in
National Air
Space (NAS)
CommunityFriendly
Operation
Acquisition cost <
$100K; Operating
costs 2X automobile
1) Triple aviation
system capacity and
safety; 2) Increase
safety and
capabilities at 18,000
public/private airports
1) Reduce TO/landing
flyover noise <
Cert. 60 dbA; 2)
Reduce emissions by
10x
(HC/NOX/CO2/lead
gram/mile)
OBJECTIVES
1) Reduce GA fatal
accidents caused by
human error by 100%;
2) Reduce private pilot
requirements/training
to = automobile
driver’s license
Reduce single
airplane accidents
against vehicle
system failure and
loss of aircraft control
by 100%
TECHNICAL CHALLENGES
1. Mission Manager (detect/
respond to emergencies,
contingency mgmt)
2. Emergency Auto-Land
3. Intuitive User-Vehicle
Interface
4. Synthetic Vision
5. Adaptive Flight Controls
6. Separation Assurance
7. Situational Awareness (RT
weather info, 3D geo-spatial
information mgmt)
8. Highly secure, reliable comm
system
9. Proactive/Reactive Flt Plng
Copyright © 2005 Boeing. All rights reserved.
1. Extreme weather/damage
tolerance/ survivability
2. Fault tolerant controls
3. Health monitoring: Vehicle,
Structural, Propulsion,
Avionics, Systems Controls
4. Pilot health monitoring
5. Crashworthy structures
6. Self-healing systems and
structures
7. Morphing structures
8. Emergency recovery
systems
9. Tamper-proof systems
1. Low cost composites and
structures
2. Low cost avionics
3. Low cost propulsion
4. Design for Manufacturing
5. Integrated, monolithic
structures
6. Systems miniaturization
7. Automated fabrication and
assembly
8. Increased power-to-weight
and lift-to-drag ratios
9. Low cost software
development & certification
1. Dynamic airspace
deconfliction
2. Decision support tools for
ATCs
3. Rapid tractory prediction
4. Separation and sequencing
multiple aircraft
5. Precision 3D navigation
equipment at airports
6. Robust communications at
airports
7. Emergency/ security
services at public/private
airports
1. Propulsion systems with
benign acoustic, thermal &
pressure signatures
2. Efficient propulsion
alternatives
3. Morphing structures
4. Smart rotor technology
5. Fuel alternatives such as
fuel cells and hydrogen
power, all electric.
6. Regenerative energy and
power technologies
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Future Propulsion ?
Engineering, Operations & Technology | Phantom Works
Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Roadmap, DOD, 12/2002
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From Unmanned System Roadmap (DOD) 2005-2030
Engineering, Operations & Technology | Phantom Works
Copyright © 2005 Boeing. All rights reserved.
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Personal Transportation Systems 2020
Engineering, Operations & Technology | Phantom Works
Copyright © 2005 Boeing. All rights reserved.
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Copyright © 2005 Boeing. All rights reserved.
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Future Compute Power
Engineering, Operations & Technology | Phantom Works
•
•
•
•
Moore’s Law
2019 $1000 computer has power of human brain
2029 $1000 computer has power of 1000 human brains
2049 $1000 computer has power of human race
Low Cost, High
Power Computing
is not a Bottleneck
IEEE Spectrum
Copyright © 2005 Boeing. All rights reserved.
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Future Communication
Engineering, Operations & Technology | Phantom Works
• By 2020 We will have Ubiquitous High Bandwidth
Communication
• Today - WiFi (vehicle to vehicle)
• Soon - WiMax (30 km range) above metropolitan areas
Edholm’s Law (IEEE)
Bandwidth growing Faster
then Moore’s Law (doubling
every 12 months)
Soon (2015?) Nomadic
(wireless) will Exceed Wireline
(goodbye cable company)
IEEE Spectrum
Copyright © 2005 Boeing. All rights reserved.
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