Transcript Slide 1

How Many Bachelor’s Degrees Does
Florida Need by 2025?
Commission on Higher Education Access and Attainment
September 26, 2012
Tampa, Florida
Presentation by Jan Ignash, Board of Governors
Example: BOG 2012-2025 System Strategic Plan
2
Goal to produce 90,000 bachelor’s degrees by the year 2025,
is about 7,000 more than the Historical Trend
100,000
actual
90,000
projections
80,000
83,400
60,000
53,392
40,000
20,000
STRATEGIC PLAN GOAL
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
0
HISTORICAL TREND
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Key Definitions
3
Demand: How many degree holders does Florida’s economy need ?
•
Benchmarking Florida’s degree attainment goals against the degree
attainment performance of the nation or of other states
•
Benchmarking Florida’s degree attainment goals against the degree
attainment performance of other nations
•
Establishing degree attainment goals based on economic/fiscal benefit
Supply: How many degree holders can Florida’s postsecondary
system generate?
•
Historical growth trends
•
Increasing the high school graduation rate
•
Increasing the college continuation rate of high school graduates
•
Increasing the continuation rate of A.A. graduates
•
Increasing adult education
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Demand Methodologies
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5
Demand Methodology: Benchmarking Florida’s degree
attainment goals against the degree attainment performance
of the nation or of other states
Florida’s Educational Attainment
Additional Degrees Needed Among 25-34 yr olds
3,000,000
2,500,000
EDR projects Florida’s 2025 population
of 25-34 year olds will only grow by
500,000 from the 2010 level.
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
In 2010, Florida needed an additional
132,000 25-34 year olds with
bachelor’s and graduate degrees to
meet the national and “BIG 10”
Benchmarks of 31%.
132,000
196,000
260,000
287,000
2015
2020
2025
580,289
If Florida increased its percentage to
31% by 2025, then half, or 287,000,
of Florida’s new 25-34 year olds would
need a bachelor’s or graduate degree.
0
2010
Other 25-34yr Population without Bachelor's Degree or Higher
Additional 25-24yr Population with Bachelor's Degree or Higher
25-34yr Population with Bachelor's Degree or Higher in 2010
Source: Board staff analysis of American
Community Survey (ACS)– see link; and, EDR
population estimates (Nov. 2011) for 25-34 year
old age group – see link.
[See also Supporting Slides 2-7.]
www.flbog.edu
6
Demand Methodology: Benchmarking Florida’s degree
attainment goals against the degree attainment performance
of other nations
The U.S. College Attainment Gap
Compared to the Most Educated OECD Countries
Source: SOURCE: OECD, Education at a Glance
(2011), Appendix A: table A1.3a; available at:
http://www.oecd.org/education/highereducationandad
ultlearning/48630299.pdf
[See also Supporting Slide 8.]
www.flbog.edu
7
Demand Methodology: Establishing degree attainment goals
based on economic/fiscal benefit
Educational Attainment Impact on State Economies
When broken into quintiles, a state’s Educational Attainment is strongly associated
with its per capita Gross Domestic Product and per capita Net Earnings.
per capita GDP
per capita Net Earnings
State
Quintiles
2010 per capita
GDP
% of 25-64
with Bachelor’s
and Higher (2010)
State
Quintiles
2011 per capita
Net Earnings
% of 25-64
with Bachelor’s
and Higher (2010)
Top 10
$63,238
35%
Top 10
$43,670
36%
11-20
$45,208
32%
11-20
$37,460
31%
21-30
$40,744
30%
21-30
$33,660
29%
31-40
$36,233
28%
31-40
$30,680
26%
41-51
$31,796
24%
41-51
$27,170
24%
USA
$41,843
30%
USA
$35,600
30%
Florida
$34,983
27%
Florida
$27,500
27%
Source: BOG staff analysis of U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
Real GDP in 2005 Chained dollars – see link; and 2010 Census population
data from 2012 Statistical Abstract (table 16) – see link.
[See also Supporting Slides 9-10.] www.flbog.edu
Counting Jobs by Education Level – The Effects of Overlap
8
Classification of National Occupations by Education Level
based on Bureau of Labor Statistics Taxonomy
100%
90%
10%
41%
80%
% WORKERS
12%
19%
29%
44%
70%
71%
60%
81%
50%
97%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Less than
high school
High school
Diploma
Some college, Postsecondary
no degree
non-degree
award
Associate's
Degree
Bachelor's
Degree
Master's
Degree
Doctoral
Degree
Grand
Total
OCCUPATIONS BY EDUCATION LEVEL
% Workers without High School Diploma
% Workers with Associate's degree
% Workers with High School Diploma
% Workers with Bachelor's or higher
% Workers with Some college, no degree
SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics Tables 1.11 and 1.12– see link.
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How We Classify the Educational Levels Needed by Various
Occupations Yield Significantly Different Results
9
Employment by Educational Taxonomy
50%
45%
43%
40%
35%
37%
37%
30%
25%
26%
20%
20%
15%
16% 16%
10%
19% 19%
17%
14%
10%
5%
3%
4%
5%
4%
6%
5%
0%
Graduate
Degrees
Bachelor's
Degrees
Associate's
Degrees
Florida Jobs (DOE/DEO Taxonomy)
Postsecondary
Vocational
Florida Jobs (BLS Taxonomy)
High School
Diploma
Less than
High School
National Jobs (BLS Taxonomy)
SOURCE: Florida data is from the Dept. of Economic Opportunity;
National data is from Bureau of Labor Statistics – see link.
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10
The Business Perspective on Job Classification
• More than half (53%) of business leaders say their companies face a very or fairly
major challenge in recruiting non-managerial employees with the skills, training,
and education their company needs, despite unemployment close to 10% and
millions of Americans seeking jobs at the time of our survey.
• The majority of business leaders (63%) believe a four-year bachelor’s degree is the
important degree to achieve success in the workplace, while only 18% believe a
career or technical credential and 14% believe a two-year associate’s degree are
important to achieve such success.
• More than three in four business leaders believe that increasing postsecondary
completion will have an extremely or very positive impact on the U.S. economy
(79%) and workforce productivity (76%). They also recognize the potential to affect
both the success of their company (75%) and their company’s ability to hire and
retain employees with the necessary skills and knowledge (75%).
Across The Great Divide: Perspectives of CEOs and
College Presidents on America’s Higher Education and
Skills Gap (2011)
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Supply Methodologies
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Supply Methodology: Historical growth trends
Bachelor’s Degrees
12
Historically, the SUS produces 63% - 65% of Florida’s Bachelor’s degrees
150,000
actual
128,300
projections
125,000
100,000
Florida
Total
Includes:
SUS,
ICUF,
CIE, FCS.
86,249
75,000
83,400
50,000
54,614
25,000
FLORIDA (all sectors) based on Historical Trend
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
0
SUS based on Historical Trend
Sources: U.S. Department of Education. National Center for Education Statistics (IPEDS) data.
Note*: Projections for ‘Florida (Historical trend)’ are based on maintaining the 8yr historical average growth rate of 3,000 per year.
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Supply Methodology: Historical growth trends
Graduate Degrees
13
Graduate Degrees in Florida
70,000
actual
projections
62,900
60,000
47,000
50,000
38,521
40,000
29,386
30,000
20,000
10,000
Master's Degrees
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
0
Graduate Degrees
Sources: U.S. Department of Education. National Center for Education Statistics (IPEDS) data.
Note*: Projections for ‘Florida (Historical trend)’ are based on maintaining the 8yr historical average growth rate.
[See also Supporting Slide 11.]
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14
Supply Methodology:
Increasing the high school graduation rate
Florida’s Race To The Top Goals
Double the Percent Earning College Credit
as of March 2011
Source: Florida Department of Education
[See also Supporting Slide 12.]
www.flbog.edu
15
Supply Methodology: Increasing the college continuation
rate of high school graduates
Florida’s College Continuation Rate
is among the lowest in the country
74%
60%
64%
57%
63%
65%
66%
Florida is
ranked 38th
in the percent of its
public and private
high school
graduates who
continue on to an
Associates or higher
degree-granting
institution in any
state.
70%
57%
59%
USA:
63%
BIG 10: 63%
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
Quartile
Quartile
Quartile
Quartile
Source: US DOE 2011 Digest of Education Statistics, Table 212 –
see link. Note: The most recently available data is for 2008 high
school graduates.
[See also Supporting Slides 13-14.]
www.flbog.edu
Supply Methodology: Increasing the continuation rate of
A.A. graduates
Florida College System’s AA Degrees & Cont. Ed.
Actual and Projections: What Can the FCS Contribute?
120,000
projections
actual
100,000
80,000
Based on
historical trends,
AA degree
production is
projected to
increase to
more than
100,000 by 2025.
Historically,
45%-50%
of AA recipients
continue their
education within the
SUS or ICUF
the following year.
60,000
40,000
20,000
AA degrees
Continue Education
2024-2025
2023-2024
2022-2023
2021-2022
2020-2021
2019-2020
2018-2019
2017-2018
2016-2017
2015-2016
2014-2015
2013-2014
2012-2013
2011-2012
2010-2011
2009-2010
2008-2009
2007-2008
2006-2007
2005-2006
2004-2005
2003-2004
0
2002-2003
16
Source: BOG staff
analysis of FCS degree
production and FETPIP’s
Annual Outcomes
Report. Note: FCS AA
recipients who reenrolled in FCS are not
counted as Continuing
Education.
www.flbog.edu
17
Supply Methodology:
Increasing adult education
Potential Additional Annual Supply of Completers
who Do Not Continue and Non-Completers
Annual Summary of Students
Who Do Not Continue Their Education
High School graduates
45,400
GED
The Florida College Access
Network has reported that
2.1 million adults in Florida
went to College but did not
finish. And, between 2008-11
more than 100,000 students
left the FCS and SUS after
only completing half of their
degree program.
23,900
FCS completers
20,800
FCS non-completers
51,400
SUS non-completers
42,100
25,700
0
20,000
40,000
Employed FT/FQ
60,000
80,000
Annually, more than 200,000
of Florida’s students do not
continue their postsecondary
education.
100,000
Sources: FETPIP – 2009-10 Annual Outcomes Report
http://www.fldoe.org/fetpip/pdf/0910pdf/pubs0910text.pdf
Note: GED Completers data based on national report (see link) and percentage
continuing education is based on FETPIP data (from smaller sample).
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The Dual Nature of the
Net Migration of Degree Holders
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19
Florida’s Net Domestic Migration
Domestic Migration In/Out of Florida
by Educational Attainment Level (2006-2010)
120,000
+8,713
100,000
+8,765
+5,396
80,000
60,000
+6,379
+663
40,000
20,000
0
Less than high school
High school graduate
graduate
(includes equivalency)
MOVE TO FLORIDA
Some college or
associate's degree
Bachelor's degree
Graduate or
professional degree
MOVE AWAY FROM FLORIDA
• During the past 5 years, 39% of Florida’s Net Migrants (25 years and older)
have had a Bachelor’s or graduate degree, which is considerably higher than
the educational attainment of Florida’s resident population (of 25%).
Source: US Census 2006-2010 American
Community Survey 5-Year Estimates of
Geographic Mobility – Tables B07009 &
B07409.
[See also Supporting Slides 15-16.]
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Next Steps
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21
Summary of Degree Goals
Bachelor Degree Production Targets for 2025
250,000
200,000
179,300
146,200
150,000
93,000
128,300
42,000
151,300
60,000
65,000
more by
2025
more by
2025
100,000
more by
2025
50,000
86,240
86,240
86,240
in 2010
in 2010
in 2010
HISTORICAL
TREND
BIG 10 AVG
per 1,000 18-24yr
BIG 10 AVG
% of 25-34yr
more by
2025
86,250
0
OECD
GOAL
Notes: OECD goal based on College Credential
Dashboard estimates for Florida’s contribution – see
link.
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Three Primary Policy Areas
for Achieving Degree Targets
22
200,000
166,000
150,000
30,000
30,000
100,000
Increase Adult Education initiatives
Increase AA Transfer rates
20,000
Increase FTIC Pipeline rates
Florida's Bachelor's Degrees in 2010
50,000
86,000
0
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23
Educational Attainment by County
Where Do we Expect Florida’s Growth?
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To Recap
• Board of Governors SUS goal to produce 90,000 bachelor’s
degrees each year by 2025 can be achieved.
• Combined with ICUF, CIE and FCS institutions, the system
could be producing 128,000 bachelor’s degrees each year by
2025 if we simply do what we’re doing now.
IF WE CONTINUE DOING WHAT WE’RE DOING,
IS THAT ENOUGH?
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