Transcript PopaNBR_presentation

NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
1
Real GDP
annual percentage change
8.5
7.9
7.1
6.2
5.7
5.1
5.2
4.2
2.1
0.5
2009 H1: -7.6%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Source: National Institute of Statistics, National Commission of Prognosis
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
2008
-7.7
2009f
2010f
f) forecast
2
annual percentage change
Gross Fixed Capital Formation
and Final Private Consumption
(GDP component) 29.0
gross fixed capital formation
19.9
19.3
final private consumption
13.0
9.9 8.5 8.9
5.5
8.8 8.4
11.0
15.3
11.6
9.6
9.8
8.4
5.2
2.0 2.0
0.2
gross fixed capital formation: -16.7% in 2009 H1
final private consumption:
-11.9% in 2009 H1
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Source: National Institute of Statistics, National Commission of Prognosis
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
2008
-11.0
-12.7
2009f
2010f
f) forecast
3
Economic Growth in Peer Countries
20
annual percentage change
contribution to annual change, pp
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
net exports
gross capital formation*
final consumption
GDP (rhs)
-15
-15
-20
Czech Rep.
Hungary
Poland
2009 Q2
2009 Q1
2008
2007
2006
2005
2009 Q2
2009 Q1
2008
2007
2006
2005
2009 Q2
2009 Q1
2008
2007
2006
2005
2009 Q2
2009 Q1
2008
2007
2006
2005
-20
Romania
* including statistical discrepancy
Source: Eurostat
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
4
Industrial Output
annual percentage change, gross data
10.3
9.3
2.7
J
a
-3.1
-9.1
2005
2006
2007
2008
Jan.-Aug. 2009
Aug.09/Aug.08: -5.3%; Aug.09/Jul. 09: -15.8%
Note: Data recalculated according to NACE Rev.2 and to the change in the base year (2005 instead of 2000) and weighting system.
Source: National Institute of Statistics
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
5
Manufacturing Output: Volume Index (1)
monthly percentage change; seasonally adjusted data
15
quarterly percentage change; seasonally adjusted data
annual percentage change; seasonally adjusted data
10
10
BG
CZ
PL
RO
HU
5
5
0
0
-5
-10
-5
-15
-20
-25
BG
CZ
PL
RO
-10
HU
Q2
2009 Q1
Q4
Q3
Q2
July-August 2009: change against 2009 Q2 average
Jul-Aug.09
July-August 2009: change against 2008 Q3 average
-15
2008 Q1
Jul-Aug.09
Q2
2009 Q1
Q4
Q3
Q2
2008 Q1
-30
Source: Eurostat
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
6
Manufacturing Output: Volume Index (2)
15
10
5
percentage change; seasonally adjusted data
Aug.2009/Sep.2008
Aug.2009/Dec.2008
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
Bulgaria
Czech Republic
Hungary
Poland
Romania
EA16
Source: Eurostat
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
7
Manufacturing: New Orders Index (1)
annual percentage change; seasonally adjusted data
Domestic market
Non-domestic market
annual percentage change; seasonally adjusted data
annual percentage change; seasonally adjusted data
40
40
BG
30
BG
CZ
30
CZ
HU
20
HU
10
RO
PL
PL
20
RO
10
0
0
Source: Eurostat
Source: Eurostat
Jul.-Aug.09
Q2
2009 Q1
Q4
Q3
-50
Q2
-50
2008 Q1
-40
Jul.-Aug.09
-40
Q2
-30
2009 Q1
-30
Q4
-20
Q3
-20
Q2
-10
2008 Q1
-10
July-August 2009: change against 2008 Q3 average
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
8
Construction Output: Volume IndexNew orders index in manufacturing
annual percentage change; seasonally adjusted data
annual percentage change; seasonally adjusted data
quarterly percentage change; seasonally adjusted data
50
50
40
BG
CZ
PL
RO
HU
BG
CZ
PL
RO
HU
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
-10
Q2
2009 Q1
Q4
Q3
2008 Q1
Q2
July-August 2009: change against 2009 Q2 average
*July 2009 for Hungary
Jul.-Aug.09*
July-August 2009: change against 2008 Q3 average
*July 2009 for Hungary
Jul.-Aug.09*
Q2
2009 Q1
Q4
-30
Q3
-20
Q2
-20
2008 Q1
-10
Source: Eurostat
Source: Eurostat
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
9
Retail Trade*: Turnover Volume
annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data
35
30
BG
CZ
PL
RO
HU
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
2008 Q1
* excepting cars
Source: Eurostat
Q2
Q3
Q4
2009 Q1
Q2
Jul.-Aug.09**
July-August 2009: change against 2008 Q3 average
** July 2009 for HU and CZ
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
10
Activity
balance of answers,
%
Expectations over the Next Three Months (1)
Manufacturing
60.0
Construction
balance of answers, seasonally adjusted data; %
balance of answers, seasonally adjusted data; %
10
0
40.0
-10
-20
20.0
-30
0.0
-40
-50
-20.0
BG
-40.0
CZ
HU
PL
BG
CZ
HU
PL
-60
-70
RO
RO
Source: CE - DG ECFIN
Sep.09
Jul.09
May.09
Mar.09
Jan.09
Nov.08
Sep.08
Jul.08
May.08
Mar.08
Sep.09
Jul.09
May.09
Mar.09
Jan.09
Nov.08
Sep.08
Jul.08
May.08
Mar.08
Jan.08
Source: EC - DG ECFIN
Jan.08
-80
-60.0
Source: EC - DG ECFIN
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
11
balance of answers,
Activity
%
Activity expectations over the next 3 months
Expectations over the Next Three Months (2)
Retail
Services
balance of answers, seasonally adjusted data; %
balance of answers, seasonally adjusted data; %
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
-20
-20
-40
BG
CZ
PL
RO
HU
BG
CZ
PL
RO
-40
HU
Sep.09
Jul.09
May.09
Mar.09
Jan.09
Nov.08
Sep.08
Jul.08
May.08
Mar.08
Jan.08
Sep.09
Jul.09
May.09
Mar.09
Jan.09
Nov.08
Sep.08
Jul.08
May.08
Mar.08
-60
Jan.08
-60
Source: EC - DG ECFIN
Source: CE - DG ECFIN
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
12
Current Account Balance
percent of GDP
-3.3
-3.7
-4.6
-5.5
-4.8
-5.8
-8.4
-8.6
-10.4
-12.3
Jan.-Aug. 2009: EUR 2.4 bn., down 78.6% yoy
2000
2001
2002
2003*
2004*
2005*
-13.5
2006*
2007* 2008* 2009f* 2010f*
*) including reinvested earnings
Source: National Bank of Romania, National Institute of Statistics, National Commission of Prognosis f) forecast
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
13
Trade Balance
(monthly data)
index, as against the same period of previous year
EUR bn.
6
5
4
250
trade balance
exports fob
imports fob
200
3
150
2
1
100
0
exports fob
imports fob
trade balance
-1
-2
Jan.06
Apr.06
Jul.06
Oct.06
Jan.07
Apr.07
Jul.07
Oct.07
Jan.08
Apr.08
Jul.08
Oct.08
Jan.09
Apr.09
Jul.09
0
Jan.06
Apr.06
Jul.06
Oct.06
Jan.07
Apr.07
Jul.07
Oct.07
Jan.08
Apr.08
Jul.08
Oct.08
Jan.09
Apr.09
Jul.09
-3
50
In Jan.-Aug. 2009, yoy decrease of exports and imports was 19.1% and 36.6% respectively.
Source: National Institute of Statistics
*) Jan.- Jun.
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
14
Current Account Deficit Financing via FDI
EUR bn.
10
0.7
(0.6% GDP)
5
7.0
(5.7% GDP)
EUR bn.
0.6
(0.4% GDP)
9.3
(6.8% GDP)
10
0.33
5
6.8
0
0.22
3.1
0
-5
-10
-16.7
(13.5%
GDP)
-2.4
-16.9
(12.3%
GDP)
-5
-11.4
capital transfers
-15
foreign direct investment
capital transfers
foreign direct investment
current account balance
-20
-10
current account balance
-25
-15
2007
2008
Current account financing via FDI (including capital transfers)
amounted to 58.4% in 2008 vs 46.5% in 2007.
In 2008, net FDI increased 31.6% yoy.
Jan.-Aug. 2008
Jan.-Aug. 2009
Current account financing via FDI (including capital transfers)
amounted to 134.1% in Jan.-Aug. 2009 vs 62.6% in Jan.-Jul. 2008.
In Jan.-Aug. 2009, net FDI decreased 55.2% yoy.
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
15
Nominal Exchange Rate
2.7
(daily data)
lei/EUR
2.9
3.1
NBR's decision to pursue
a more flexible exchange rate
3.3
3.5
3.7
3.9
4.1
4.3
Sep.09
May.09
Jan.09
Sep.08
May.08
Jan.08
Sep.07
May.07
Jan.07
Sep.06
May.06
Jan.06
Sep.05
May.05
Jan.05
Sep.04
May.04
Jan.04
Sep.03
May.03
Jan.03
Sep.02
May.02
Jan.02
4.5
Source: National Bank of Romania
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
16
Real Exchange Rate of the leu against the EUR
260
index, 2000 = 100, monthly averages
based on CPI differential between Romania and Euro area
240
based on PPI differential between Romania and Euro area
220
based on ULC in industry
200
180
160
140
120
100
Sep.09
May.09
Jan.09
Sep.08
May.08
Jan.08
Sep.07
May.07
Jan.07
Sep.06
May.06
Jan.06
Sep.05
May.05
Jan.05
Sep.04
May.04
Jan.04
Sep.03
May.03
Jan.03
Sep.02
May.02
Jan.02
Sep.01
May.01
Jan.01
80
Note: For PPI and ULC, data recalculated according to NACE Rev.2 and to the change in the base year (2005 instead of 2000) and
weighting system.
Source: National Bank of Romania calculations, National Institute of Statistics, International Financial Statistics
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
17
Inflation Developments
12
annual percentage change
10
8
6
4
Target 2005
7.5
2
0
Dec.05
Target 2006
5.0
Dec.06
Target 2007
4.0
Target 2008
3.8
Dec.07
Target 2009
3.5
Dec.08
Dec.09
Target 2010
3.5
Dec.10
Note: ±1 percentage point around the central target
Source: National Institute of Statistics, National Bank of Romania
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
18
Sources of Pressure on Inflation
28
annual percentage change; (+) depreciation/(-) appreciation
annual percentage change
28
24
24
20
20
16
16
12
12
8
8
4
4
0
0
inflation rate
-4
-4
vegetables, fruit and eggs
-8
-8
fuels
-12
-12
exchange rate (RON/EUR; rhs)
Sep.09
Jun.09
Mar.09
Dec.08
Sep.08
Jun.08
Mar.08
Dec.07
Sep.07
Jun.07
Mar.07
Dec.06
Sep.06
Jun.06
Mar.06
-16
Dec.05
-16
Source: National Institute of Statistics, National Bank of Romania
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
19
Headline Inflation and CORE Inflation
10
annual percentage change
CPI (total)
9
CORE1 (CPI – administered prices)
8
CORE2 (CORE1 – volatile prices*)
adjusted CORE2**
7
6
5
4
3
Sep.09
Jun.09
Mar.09
Dec.08
Sep.08
Jun.08
Mar.08
Dec.07
Sep.07
Jun.07
Mar.07
Dec.06
Sep.06
Jun.06
Mar.06
Dec.05
2
*) products with volatile prices: vegetables, fruit, eggs, fuels
**) excluding tobacco and alcoholic beverages
Source: National Institute of Statistics, National Bank of Romania calculations
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
20
Inflation Forecast
annual percentage change
annual percentage change
10
uncertainty interval
variation band*
9
9
variation band*
target
8
10
4-quarter inflation rate
8
target
7
4-quarter inflation rate
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
Inflation targets (Dec./Dec.)
2009: 3.5%
2010: 3.5%
1
1
0
0
IV
II
I
2009
III
IV
II
I
2010
III
IV
II
I
2011
IV
II
I
2009
III
IV
II
I
2010
III
IV
II
I
2011
*) ±1 percentage point around the central target
Note: according to the August 2009 Inflation Report
Source: National Institute of Statistics, National Bank of Romania calculations
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
21
Developments in Inflation Expectations
Inflation rate 1 year ahead
Inflation rate expected for December 2009
annual percentage change
annual percentage change
9
9
8
8
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
Target-band
Target-band
3
3
analysts' answers
Oct.09
Jul.09
Apr.09
Jan.09
Oct.08
Jul.08
Apr.08
Oct.09
Jan.08
Apr.09
Jul.09
0
Jan.09
0
Oct.08
1
Jul.08
1
Apr.08
2
Jan.08
2
trimmed mean
Source: NBR survey among bank analysts
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
22
Gross International Reserves
Gross Official Reserves
EUR billion
NBR foreign exchange reserves
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2002
2009
Aug.
2008
gold
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
banks' foreign exchange
reserves
NBR foreign exchange
reserves
gold
34
32
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2009
Sep.
EUR billion
2003
34
32
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Source: National Bank of Romania
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
23
Reserves and Debt Indicators
14
months
500
800
fx off. reserves/ST ext. debt (resid. maturity)
fx off. reserves - months of imports*
12
percent
percent
450
off. reserves- months of imports*
private debt - months of exports*
fx off. reserves/ST ext. debt (orig. maturity)
400
10
700
fx off. reserves (t)/MLT debt service (t+1)**
fx off. reserves/CAD (rhs)
600
350
500
300
8
400
August
250
6
200
300
150
4
200
100
2
100
50
0
0
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Note: for 2009, calculations based on prospective
imports
* goods and services
2009
Sep.
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009***
** For 2008, calculations based on estimated debt service for 2009
*** August for reserves and ST external debt stock; 2009 estimate
for CAD; Sep.09 - Aug.10 estimate for MLT debt service
Source: National Bank of Romania; National Institute of Statistics; National Commission of Prognosis
Note: for 2009, calculations based on prospective imports of goods and services
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
24
Total External Debt
EUR billion
EUR billion
ST debt
(majority private debt)
public and publicly guaranteed debt
private debt
deposits of non-residents
IMF loans
16.9
MLT debt
22.2
11.8
19.8
10.7
12.5
10.2
60.1
51.2
10.7
38.7
6.0
0.2
7.9
0.4
17.0
6.8
0.9
1.0
3.2
5.5
4.8
2009*
5.6
0.2
12.4
2007
2009*
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
9.7
2004
9.2
18.3
15.0 15.9
25.3
10.0
2006
28.6
2003
24.6
11.3
2002
2.0
35.0
2005
3.2
1.2
36.7
2008
6.3
2002
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
MLT External Debt
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
*) August
Source: National Bank of Romania
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
25
Public Debt
30
26.0
25
20
(according to ESA 95 methodology)
percent of GDP
domestic public debt/GDP
25.0
22.6
foreign public debt/GDP
21.5
9.9
8.8
6.9
18.8
6.1
5.3
15
15.8
12.7
2.6
4.0
5.8
11.1
9.8
8.7
7.8
2005
2006
2007
2008
10
16.1
16.2
15.4
13.5
5
13.6
12.4
4.7
15.7
20.97
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2009f
Note: Government securities in MFIs portfolio as share of GDP in Dec.07=1.7%, Dec.08=2.2% and Aug.09=7%
f) EDP Notification, October 2009
Source: National Bank of Romania, National Institute of Statistics, National Commission of Prognosis
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
26
General Government Deficit
(according to ESA 95 methodology)
percent of GDP
-1.5
-1.2
-1.2
-2.0
-2.2
-2.6
-3.5
-4.4
-5.5
-7.9
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009f
f) EDP Notification, October 2009
Source: Ministry of Public Finance, National Institute of Statistics
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
27
Eurobond Spreads
1,200
basis points
Romania (BB+)
Czech Rep. (A)
Bulgaria (BBB-)
Hungary (BBB)
800
Latvia (BB+)
Poland (A-)
600
Lithuania (BBB)
1,000
400
200
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
Sep.09
Aug.09
Oct.09
14 Oct.09
Note: The spread is calculated as against the yields on German Bunds maturing in 2012
Bond maturity: 2011 for Hungary; 2012 for Poland, Romania and Lithuania; 2013 for Bulgaria;
'
2014 for Czech Republic and Latvia
() Composite rating (Moody's, S&P, Fitch)
Source: Bloomberg
Jul.09
Jun.09
May.09
Apr.09
Mar.09
Feb.09
Jan.09
Dec.08
Nov.08
Oct.08
Sep.08
Aug.08
Jul.08
Jun.08
May.08
Apr.08
Mar.08
Feb.08
Jan.08
0
'
28
Spreads of Five-year CDS for Emerging Economies
in Central and Eastern Europe
1,400
basis points
Latvia
Czech Rep.
Lithuania
Hungary
Bulgaria
Romania
Poland
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
Sep.09
Aug.09
Jul.09
Jun.09
May.09
Oct.09
13 Oct.09
Source: Bloomberg
Apr.09
Mar.09
Feb.09
Jan.09
Dec.08
Nov.08
Oct.08
Sep.08
Aug.08
Jul.08
Jun.08
May.08
Apr.08
Mar.08
Feb.08
Jan.08
0
29
Inflation Rate and Interest Rates
32
percent
percent
32
inflation rate (percentage change against
the same year-earlier period)
interest rate on monetary policy operations
(stock; % p.a.)
Jul.09
Jan.09
Jul.08
Jan.08
Jul.07
Jan.07
Jul.06
Jan.06
Jul.05
0
Jan.05
0
Jul.04
4
Jan.04
4
Jul.09
8
Jan.09
8
Jul.08
12
Jan.08
12
Jul.07
16
Jan.07
16
Jul.06
20
Jan.06
20
Jul.05
24
Jan.05
24
Jul.04
28
Jan.04
28
inflation rate (percentage change against
the same year-earlier period)
average interest rate on leu-denominated loans to nonfinancial corporations and households (% p.a.)
NBR policy rate (% p.a.)
average interest rate on leu-denominated time deposits from
non-financial corporations and households (% p.a.)
NBR policy rate: 8.0% starting with September 30, 2009
Source: National Bank of Romania, National Institute of Statistics
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
30
Interest Rates in the Banking System
35
percent per annum
percent per annum
35
Sep.09
May.09
Jan.09
Sep.08
May.08
0
Jan.08
0
Sep.07
5
May.07
5
Jan.07
10
Sep.06
10
May.06
15
Jan.06
15
Sep.05
20
May.05
20
Jan.05
25
Sep.04
25
May.04
30
Jan.04
30
NBR policy rate
interest rate on monetary policy operations (flow)
new leu-denominated loans to non-financial corporations and households
new leu-denominated time deposits from non-financial corporations and households
Source: National Bank of Romania
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
31
Loans to the Private Sector
real annual percentage change*
real annual percentage change*
140
140
households
lei-denominated loans
total
120
120
total
foreign-exchange-denominated loans
100
100
non-financial corporations & financial
corporations other than MFIs
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
-20
Source: National Bank of Romania, National Institute of Statistics
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
Aug.09
Apr.09
Dec.08
Aug.08
Apr.08
Dec.07
Aug.07
Apr.07
Dec.06
Aug.06
Apr.06
Aug.09
Dec.05
Apr.09
Dec.08
Aug.08
Apr.08
Dec.07
Aug.07
Apr.07
Dec.06
Aug.06
Apr.06
Dec.05
-20
*) based on CPI
32
Loans to the Private Sector
12
real monthly percentage change*
real monthly percentage change*
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
households
-4
Source: National Bank of Romania, National Institute of Statistics
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
-6
-8
Aug.09
Apr.09
Dec.08
Aug.08
Apr.06
Dec.05
Aug.09
Apr.09
Dec.08
Aug.08
Apr.08
Dec.07
Aug.07
Apr.07
Dec.06
Apr.06
Dec.05
Aug.06
foreign-exchange-denominated loans
-8
Apr.08
non-financial corporations & financial
corporations other than MFIs
Dec.07
total
Aug.07
-6
Apr.07
total
Dec.06
lei-denominated loans
Aug.06
-4
*) based on CPI
33
Loans to the Private Sector
(in real terms)
lei-denominated loans
lei billion
EUR billion
non-financial corporations
households
others*
80
70
non-financial corporations
households
others*
90
80
70
Source: National Bank of Romania,
National Institute of Statistics
Aug.09
Apr.09
Dec.08
Aug.08
Apr.08
Dec.07
Aug.07
Apr.07
Dec.06
0
Aug.06
0
Apr.06
10
Aug.09
Dec.05
10
Apr.09
20
Dec.08
20
Aug.08
30
Apr.08
30
Dec.07
40
Aug.07
40
Apr.07
50
Dec.06
50
Aug.06
60
Apr.06
60
Dec.05
(deflated by CPI, Aug. 2009=100)
90
foreign-exchange-denominated loans
*) insurance corporations, other financial intermediaries and financial auxiliaries
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
34
Loans to Households
(in real terms)
Housing Loans
lei billion
lei
EUR
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Jul.09
Apr.09
Jan.09
Oct.08
Jul.08
Apr.08
Jan.08
Oct.07
Jul.07
Apr.07
Jan.07
Jul.09
Apr.09
Jan.09
Oct.08
Jul.08
other currencies
Apr.08
Jan.08
Oct.07
Jul.07
lei
EUR
other currencies
Apr.07
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Jan.07
(deflated by CPI, Aug. 2009=100)
Consumer Loans
lei billion
Source: National Bank of Romania, National Institute of Statistics
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
35
Private Sector Deposits
(in real terms)
foreign-exchange-denominated deposits
lei-denominated deposits
lei billion
100
lei billion
90
110
100
corporations*
households
corporations*
90
households
80
80
Aug.09
Apr.09
Dec.08
Aug.08
Apr.08
Dec.07
Aug.07
0
Apr.07
0
Dec.06
10
Aug.06
10
Apr.06
20
Aug.09
Dec.05
20
Apr.09
30
Dec.08
30
Aug.08
40
Apr.08
40
Dec.07
50
Aug.07
50
Apr.07
60
Dec.06
60
Aug.06
70
Apr.06
70
Dec.05
(deflated by CPI, Aug. 2009=100)
110
*) non-financial corporations and financial corporations other than MFIs
Source: National Bank of Romania, National Institute of Statistics
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
36
45
Financial Intermediation*
- Stocks -
percent
39.3
loans to non-financial corporations a.o.
40
loans to households
41.0
35.9
foreign-exchange-denominated loans
35
lei-denominated loans
30
19.6
26.8
18.6 19.5
25
22.7
20.7
20
16.6
15
10
15.4
12.7
13.3 11.3
11.8 10.3
5
4.8
6.3
7.4
9.4
11.4
14.1
17.3 16.4
19.7
2007
2008
16.6
0
2004
2005
2006
Source: National Bank of Romania, National Institute of Statistics
*) loans to the private sector / GDP
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
2009 f
f) forecast
37
Financial Intermediation*
- Flows 45
Debtors
percent
percent
foreign-exchange-denominated loans
40
loans to households
35
loans to non-financial corporations a.o.
30
25
lei-denominated loans
26.8
23.4
23.4
22.7
19.9
24.6
21.1
45
40
35
30
26.8
25.3
24.6
Currency
25.3
25
22.7
19.9
21.1
20
20
14.6 15.2
15
14.6 15.2
12.7
12.7
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
2007 Q2
Q1
Q3
Q4 2008 Q2
Q1
Q3
Q4 2009 Q2
Q1
2007 Q2
Q1
Source: National Institute of Statistics, National Bank of Romania
*Sursa:
deflatatINS,
cu indicele
preţurilor producţiei industriale aferent comenzilor noi
Eurostat
Q3 Q4 2008 Q2
Q1
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
Q3
Q4 2009 Q2
Q1
*) percent in quarterly GDP
38
Analysis ratios for the banking system (1)
1.4
percent
percent
35
overdue and doubtful loans /total loans portfolio (net value)
1.2
20
0.66
12.66
0.6
15
10.24
9.43
0.4
10
0.32
0.28
0.2
25
17.04
15.62
1.98
30
1.03
ROA (net income / total assets); rhs
1.0
0.8
1.09
ROE (net income / total equity); rhs
0.26
1.60
0.20
1.28
0.22
1.01
1.56
-0.25
0.64
5
0.91
0
0.0
0.05
-2.90
0.08
-5
Aug.09
Jun.09
Mar.09
Dec.08
Dec.07
Dec.06
Dec.05
Dec.04
-0.2
Source: National Bank of Romania
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
39
Analysis Ratios for the Banking System (2)
30
percent
percent
3.0
2.59
2.47
25
2.5
2.31
2.39
2.28
20
20.64
2.31
2.13
21.07
2.0
1.67
18.12
13.78
15
13.76
13.16
1.5
13.51
liquidity ratio (rhs)
solvency ratio
1.0
Aug.09
Jun.09
Mar.09
Dec.08
Dec.07
Dec.06
Dec.05
Dec.04
10
At present, no credit institution has a solvency ratio below the 10 percent threshold.
Source: National Bank of Romania
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
40
BANKING INDICATORS
(Banks, Foreign Bank Branches and CREDITCOOP)
percent
Indicators
Dec.07 Mar.08 Jun.08 Sep.08 Dec.08 Mar.09 Jun.09 Aug.09
Capital adequacy
1 Solvency ratio (>8%)
13.78
12.99
12.78
11.85
13.76
13.16
13.51
x
7.32
7.20
7.30
7.10
8.13
6.81
6.92
6.99
3 Loans (gross value) / Total assets (gross value) (1)
59.09
62.06
63.47
65.04
62.50
60.00
59.11
60.13
4 Interbank placements and loans (gross value) / Total assets (gross value) (1)
29.98
27.54
26.09
24.79
26.01
24.98
23.91
21.58
5 Past-due and doubtful loans / Total loan portfolio (net value) (1)
0.22
0.21
0.30
0.24
0.32
0.66
1.03
1.09
6 Past-due and doubtful loans/Total loan portfolio (gross value)
0.77
0.83
0.95
1.07
1.37
2.16
2.68
3.02
7 Past-due and doubtful claims / Total assets (net value) (1)
0.17
0.19
0.25
0.22
0.29
0.52
0.75
0.82
85.4
90.5
91.0
89.7
86.2
88.5
89.6
89.5
9 ROA (Net profit /Total assets, average)
1.01
1.51
1.44
1.77
1.56
-0.25
0.05
0.08
10 ROE (Net profit / Own capital, average)
Liquidity
9.43
16.45
15.82
19.41
17.04
-2.90
0.64
0.91
38.70
34.98
33.23
31.74
34.43
33.05
33.62
32.94
2.13
2.29
2.30
2.45
2.47
2.31
2.39
1.67
108.7
116.1
119.6
124.7
122.0
124.7
119.2
118.8
2 Leverage ratio (Tier 1 capital /Total assets, average)
Asset quality
8 Provisioning for risk-weighted exposure of banks to non-bank loans and interbank
placements and related interest classified under "substandard", "doubtful" and "loss"
Profitability
11 Cash ratio
12 Liquidity ratio (effective liquidity / required liquidity)
13 Loans to clients / Deposits from clients
Note:
(1) Indicators calculated based on accounting prudential reports.
(2) Indicators calculated based on loan classification reports (pursuant to Regulation 5/2002, as subsequently amended and supplemented). Loan exposures
are classified by credit institutions in line with debt servicing, the debtor’s financial standing and the principle of downgrade by contamination.
x = it is not the case
Source: National Bank of Romania
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
41
Timetable for Euro Adoption
 Timing of ERM2 entry is planned for 2012 in order to:
 provide some monetary and exchange rate flexibility (for a limited time period)
in order to further necessary and substantial structural adjustment
 maintain motivation to carry out reforms in a timely manner and consolidate macro
discipline
 provide the possibility of setting the central parity based on a more accurate
estimate of the equilibrium exchange rate after overcoming the peak in capital
inflows (expected to stay high even subsequent to EU accession)
 Timing configured to ensure ex ante likelihood of shorter
necessary stay in ERM2 (min. 2 years), considering:
 credibility provided by final stage of the process (adoption of the euro)
and attendant spurring of adjustment
 possible volatile capital movements amid restricted exchange rate flexibility
during interim period
 the inflation targeting framework, to which exchange rate movements should be
clearly subordinated
 Eurozone entry is planned for January 1, 2015
(euro adoption decision expected in 2014)
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
42