Next Generation Access

BT/ISPA: 27 th July 2007

Agenda – BT’s latest thinking

• Overview • Bottlenecks & Points of Interconnection • Complexity • Risk Sharing • Flexibility for Trials

Broadband UK: affordable, available and attractive?

• 99.6% broadband availability, over 12 million subscribers • Top of G8, better than mains water • Vast majority commercially funded • One of the lowest prices in the world • Infrastructure competition: LLU, cable, wireless in over 70% of the country • Even wider set of technologies for broadcast applications (esp. TV) • Hundreds of nationwide service providers with a number of wholesale providers • Service and commercial innovation • E.g., IP TV, mobile over broadband, broadband on the move, IP telephony, hybrid platforms...

• Bundles and packages with wireless, landlines, software as a service

Ample bandwidth for the vast majority today?

• Bandwidth and price tend to dominate marketing messages – “simple” to understand and compare, or is it?

• Typical customer uses much less than ‘last mile’ capacity – Average bandwidth usage <30 kbit/s – Peak individual throughput much more constrained by ‘internet’ and servers, peak time of day, also backhaul and core networks – But some intensive users e.g. streaming SDTV, peer-to-peer file transfer >200 MB/hour - who pay no extra • However BT aware of growing public debate and keen to engage with end customers, Ofcom, CPs and other stakeholders e.g. BSG, content industry • With long investment lead-times for NGAs, important to get right balance between supply-led and demand-led approach and take account of ongoing technology evolution e.g compression

Where is the last mile bandwidth an issue? What else drives customer experience?

QoS Service level Best Effort

10 kbps

Need for high upstream rate as well as download rate VoIP Gaming Internet Access applications

100 kbps

Video-on demand

1 Mbps

Access (d/s) Bandwidth

HDTV Business ???

Internet Access

Best Effort (e-mail, online gambling etc)

On-line Gaming

PC, Console P2P

VoIP Communications

(BE PC-PC, off-net PSTN quality)

Video-Communications

(web-cab to TV, Video calls, Conference)

TV & Video

VoD download/streamed, SDTV, HDTV

Business applications

Software as a service, IP Centrex, VPN

10 Mbps

Example applications requiring different transmission rates & Quality of Service

BT’s Access Network

In Confidence

Today

Local Exchange Backhaul E-side Cables Street Cabinet (PCP) manual cross-connection of e-side and d-side pairs D-side Cables Telephone Pole (DP) Overhead Distribution Customer Underground Distribution

BT’s Access Network

In Confidence

Today

Local Exchange Backhaul

…some older cabinets are more challenging!

E-side Cables Street (PCP) D-side Cables Telephone Pole (DP) Overhead Distribution Customer Underground Distribution

Technology provides a number of options to ‘accelerate’ last mile bandwidth

Bandwidth (Mbit/s)[1] DownStream (Headline)

ADSL – Exchange based 8

Indicative DownStream (Median)

4-6

Indicative UpStream (Headline)

0.8

Indicative Upstream (Median)

0.75

ADSL2+ (MSAN) – Exchange based FTTC - VDSL2 24 c50 6-10 22-25 0.9

c24 0.75

9 FTTP/GPON Broadcast satellite Broadcast terrestrial digital TV Wireless (HSPA, LTE, WiFi, WiMax) c75+burst 100s 10s 10s c75+burst 100s 10s 1-5++?

40+burst n/a n/a <1 40+burst n/a n/a <1

BT’s strategy for UK broadband infrastructure

Satisfy the vast majority of needs with our existing copper network Continue investment in core network Develop targeted NGA solutions Re-endorse Equivalence Actively engage customers and stakeholders

Maximise the performance of existing copper infrastructure – Fix the customer experience issues starting from marketing messages, to selling, provisioning and operating – Tackle residual areas of non availability, making it near ubiquitous, – – with public funding support Upgrade the current copper based broadband to ADSL2+ Develop “hybrid” solutions: broadband, satellite/digital terrestrial, storage/processing, software Exploit 21CN investment to provide much more throughput capacity at lower cost; make this a competitive advantage for ‘rich content’ services (TV) Provide targeted solutions to “NGA” with the best technology and commercial model in each case – Fibre to the Premises in Greenfield development – Selective participation in government funded opportunities where ‘state aid’ case is clear.

– Develop a ‘targeted deployment’ Equivalent proposition Re-endorse the regulatory principles that have served us well to date (Equivalence in particular, as it drives the risk sharing and volume, both critical for the commercial case to work) but reflect the “NGA” requirements in the detail Communicate our plans and rationale openly to manage public policy pressure ensuring that BT does not get ‘held responsible’ for UK NGA investment (or lack/delay thereof)

NGA becomes targeted

• Fibre deployment requires a lot of civil engineering – Requires time and money so inevitably some opportunities will be captured before others • NGA investment becoming ‘targeted’ – Where new greenfield sites are built – Where customers pay – Where developers or other commercial investors pay – Where taxpayers pay (with consequences to commercial investment?) – ...

How to make targeting fair and effective?

Vision: Targeting NGA to where customers demand is, Equivalently

•

New technology solution

Fibre To The Cabinet (FTTC) solution evolution – Typical BT cabinet 300 lines/customers; BT has over 90’000 cabinets – May need a new powered cabinet required for FTTC; minimum commercial level of about 80 subscribers may be difficult to reach (25% of all lines in a cabinet) (assume £10/month premium); May be simpler/lower cost options as technology develops.

New commercial model New point of equivalence (Openreach – BTW)

• • • • Establish a ‘trigger level’ and prepayment by Communication Providers to determine where to deploy Make it possible to deploy ‘anywhere’ but get paid up front to reduce ‘stranded cash’ exposure Nationwide deployment but BT (and any CP) would have a choice where to deploy roll-out depending on customer demand Next Generation Access provided by Openreach at ‘Layer 2’ level at exchange – Broadband electronics in Openreach – Minimal difference in the end customer and Communication Provider interface whether FTTP or FTTC – Review of the operationally and commercially difficult sub-loop product currently in the Undertakings

Sub Loop Unbundling vs Wholesale layer 2 service

Sub Loop Multiple cabinets Multiple backhaul Multiple tie cables <10% of lines accessible* Wholesale Layer 2 Shared cabinet Shared backhaul Shared tie cable >80% of lines accessible* * Assumes aggressive commercial model:- high penetration rates, additional revenue, multiple CPs

Analysys report for OPTA, Jan 07 conclusions on Sub loop

“the use of SLU by an alternative provider is not economically viable as an alternative to continuing to use LLU…..we estimate that a business case for SLU would require both:

–

a market share greater than 55% of all broadband lines (including cable) in all areas served

–

Our highest estimate for incremental revenue (which assumes an increase in ARPU across all broadband users of EUR10 per month”

Complexity

• Likely multiplicity of operators owning NGA infrastructure • Patchwork deployment • Range of possible models – including developer-led and ‘campus’ models • BT’s SMP and USO not applicable?

• Need for new approach to ensure connectivity and interoperability – and choice of downstream supplier • Long Rollout timeline (Civil works)

‘Hiding’ the infrastructure complexity to enable efficient innovation and competition nationwide • • Common Ethernet presentation “Layer 2” and standardised ‘OSS’ to Unify Market above a limited range of physical media options •Fibre to Cabinet – Brownfield •Point–Point Fibre – Major business sites •Fibre to Premises (GPON) Greenfield •Other technologies as built Fibre and Wireless are complementary

CP1 Core

CP1 CP’N’

Openreach Handover point External Network End User

MSAN Fibre backhaul NTE5 SLU D-side Legacy E-side Copper FTTCab – Copper DSide

T

Voice & Data Pt-Pt Access Fibre FTTP ONU Ethernet

CP2 Core

CP1 CP’N’

CPN Core

OLT CP1 CP’N’

R

OLT

Enhanced Backhaul Offers

Split ONT 1 Voice & Data Ethernet ONT N

S

Wifi WiMax 2G 3G Infrastructure investor x, layer 2

CP – Wireless Access EU – Fixed and Wireless

• •

Next Generation Access Infrastructure A mix of Fibre Access Network designs with a unified service offering A basis for sustainable long-term access network investment

Reaffirming the regulatory principles and updating the “detail”

• • • • • • Openreach formed to deliver underpinning infrastructure and Equivalence of Input for all – Communication providers and BT’s downstream businesses are equal – Equivalence should continue in NGA – Openreach is only successful if the industry as a whole is successful Recognising the narrowing reality of ‘bottleneck’ assets in light of technology and infrastructure competition Encouraging innovative ways to trial without making commitments to particular products or roll-out to be available Symmetric treatment of all investors in new assets Reviewing the universal service obligations and funding in light of multiple private and public investors and value chain fragmentation Stimulation of competition in higher layer network services and applications on all infrastructure

Investment Risk

• Agreement on need to reflect risk/return • There are possible options – Trigger approach with up front payments – Anchor pricing – Utility regulation • BT open to suggestions and keen to explore alternatives

Flexibility for trials

• Technical trials are essential first step • May be ‘exceptional’ ‘semi-commercial’ cases where more dynamic cross-BT working required to develop feasible ‘real world’ solutions – geographically – restricted – involving other CPs – testing demand-led models – will require ‘experimental’ approach • Need for exemptions?

UK NGA Vision?

Not whether the UK has a monolithic NGA or not, but: An evolutionary delivery of innovative services at affordable prices to those who want to buy them, which means: • Responding to real demand • In a commercially and technically innovative way • That enables effective downstream competition everywhere • And rewards the risk investors take