Transcript IL COMPITO DEI PROFESSIONISTI ESPERTI IN CORPORATE …

ITALY:
AN OVERVIEW OF
DEMOGRAPHY AND ECONOMY
Author: Gemma Asero
Annual meeting AITC
September 4th and 5th 2009 Florence, Italy
1
WHY
The purpose of this work is to offer an
overview on Italian economy and
demography since the end of Nineties
to 2009.
2
HOW
 Using ISTAT,
collections;
EUROSTAT and IMF data
 Analyzing data, extracted on June 2009, both
over time and by making a comparison
between Italy and Europe and also between
Italy and the other six world’s advanced
economies (G7 countries);
 Looking at some forecast and estimate for 2010.
3
1959:
50 million inhabitants
Natural growth and
migratory component
2008:
60 million inhabitants
The Italian
demographic
growth has assured
by a positive
migratory
balance with
abroad
POPULATION
In 2008,
Italian population,
live births
and deaths
increased respect
to 2007
Resident population on 31° December 2008 and increase from 2007 by
geographical areas
-IstatPopulation on
31st December 2008
(millions)
Male
Female
Total
Increase from
31st
December2007
%
Resident
Foreigners
(%)
Absolute
Values
%
North-west
7 741 251
8 176 125
15 917 376
26.5
8.6
137 903
0.9
North-east
5 599 221
5 873 899
11 473 120
19.1
9.0
135 650
1.2
5 686 716
6 111 612
11 798 328
19.6
8.0
122 750
1.0
South
6 872 112
7 275 332
14 147 444
23.6
2.5
15 975
0.1
Islands
3 253 123
3 455 677
6 788 000
11.2
2.2
13 500
0.2
29 152 423
30 892 645
60 045 068
100.0
6.5
425 778
0.7
Centre
Italy
5
Demographic indicators of national demographic balance, Italy, 2008
-IstatDemographic
Indicators
Male
Female
Total
28 949 747
30 669 543
59 619 290
Live births (1 000)
296 138
280 521
576 659
Deaths (1 000)
285 483
299 643
585 126
10 655
-19 122
-8 467
79
84
81
740 480
725 160
1 465 640
Immigration from other Countries (1 000)
29 305
17 061
46 366
Emigration to other Municipalities (1 000)
731 267
719 085
1 450 352
43 743
37 204
80 947
192 021
242 224
434 245
29 031 973
30 689 953
59 721 926
120 450
202 692
323 142
Number of Households (1 000)
:
:
24 641 200
Number of Communities (1 000)
:
:
28 217
Average number of household members (%)
:
:
2.4
Resident population on 1st January (million)
Natural increase (1 000)
Life expectancy at birth (years)
Immigration from other Italian municipalities (1 000)
Emigration to other Countries (1 000)
Net migration + balance for other reasons (1 000)
Resident population in Household on 31st December (1 000)
Resident population in Community on 31st Dec. (1 000)
6
In 2009,
decrease of real
GDP growth rate by 4.4
but forecasts for 2010
show the possibility
a fair recover
will take place
Private final
consumption
expenditure >
the government one.
Both increased
in the first quarter
of 2009
GDP AND
EXPENDITURE
ON GDP
In 2008,
tertiary sector
was the most
important one
in the origin
of Italian GDP
GDP per capita at current market prices in Purchasing Power Standards (PPS),
2008 (EU-27=100) -Eurostat0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
EU-27
Belgium
Bulgaria
Czech Rep.
Denmark
Germany
Estonia
Ireland
Greece
Spain
France
ITA LY
Cyprus
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Hungary
Malta
Netherlands
A ustria
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovenia
Slovakia
Finland
Sw eden
Uk
Croatia
FY R Mk
Turkey
Iceland
Norw ay
Sw itzerland (1)
United States
Japan
8
Origin GDP, Italy, 2008 (%)
-Eurostat-
Other services
21%
Agriculture
2%
Industry
20%
Construction
6%
Business
29%
Trade
22%
9
Gross value added at basic prices, EU-27, 2008
(% share of total gross values added)
-Eurostat-
Other services
21%
Agriculture
2%
Industry, excluding
Energy
21%
Construction
6%
Business activities and
financial services
25%
Trade, transport and
communication services
25%
10
Private final consumption expenditure at current prices, quarterly data
(Million EUR) -Eurostat-
2007
2008
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
1 740 208
1 762 009
1 783 309
1 796 720
224 430
225 980
227 919
U.S.A.
1 816 897
1 790 947
Japan
463 709
446 643
EU-27
Italy
Q1
2009
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
1 794 649
1 796 943
1 815 043
1 768 326
1 711 487
229 333
230 989
232 581
234 688
230 629
225 869
1 777 115
1 707 286
1 669 722
1 622 392
1 688 289
1 883 137
1 906 996
447 062
444 038
469 071
449 142
454 773
571 819
583 545
11
Government final consumption expenditure at current prices, quarterly data
(Million EUR) -Eurostat-
2007
Q1
EU-27
Q2
2008
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2009
Q3
Q4
Q1
621 499
625 385
631 376
636 924
637 758
649 139
653 029
651 995
644 666
74 678
75 634
75 662
78 393
76 875
82 121
79 088
80 027
81 826
U.S.A.
410 346
407 147
406 609
391 205
388 004
381 017
405 282
455 330
458 055
Japan
145 604
141 989
142 241
142 986
148 939
143 253
145 600
186 395
194 448
Italy
12
In 2008,
Italy was
at no. 24 in world
rankings according to
General Government
Balance.
In 2009 and in 2010,
public balance
more in deficit than
the EU-27 and
EA-16
In 2008,
Italian public
finances
in dire straits:
public deficit = 2.7 %
of GDP and
debt = 105.8 %
of GDP
PUBLIC
FINANCE
Italy has one
of the highest
debt levels in the
Euro area and it seems
they will increase
more in next 2 years,
although Italy
is trying to carry out
a fiscal
strengthening
General government gross debt, G7 countries, 1997-2010 (% of GDP)
-Eurostat250.0
200.0
150.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
1997
1998
1999
Canada
2000
France
2001
2002
Germany
2003
ITALY
2004
2005
Japan
2006
2007
United Kingdom
2008
2009
2010
United States
14
General government balance G7 countries, 2000-2010 (% of GDP)
-Eurostat4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
-14
-16
2000
Canada
2001
2002
France
2003
Germany
2004
ITALY
2005
2006
Japan
2007
2008
United Kingdom
2009
2010
United States
15
Annual average
long term interest rates
similar to the Euro area ones
(+ 0.2%), slightly lower
than the US ones.
Japan, the
lowest ones
Annual percentage
change average
consumer prices:
highest values
among the European
G7 countries
PRICES AND
FINANCIAL
INDICATORS
Inflation rate:
similar trend to the
EU average (’97-’08).
Slowdown in
Italian inflation
reflected decrease
of national prices
level
Annual change on consumer prices index, Italy, January 2008-June 2009 (%)
-Istat4.5
4.1
4.0
3.5
3.0
3.6
3.3
3.0
3.0
4.1
3.8
3.8
3.5
3.3
2.9
2.7
2.5
2.2
2.0
1.6
1.2
1.5
1.2
0.9
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
gen- feb- mar- apr- mag- giu08 08 08 08 08 08
lug- ago- set08 08
08
ott- nov- dic- gen- feb- mar- apr- mag- giu08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09
17
HICP all-items, annual average inflation rates, 1997-2008 (%) Part I
-Eurostat1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2 008
EU-27
1.7
1.3
1.2
1.9
2.2
2.1
2.0
2.0
2.2
2.2
2.3
3.7
Euro area
1.6
1.1
1.1
2.1
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.1
3.3
Belgium
1.5
0.9
1.1
2.7
2.4
1.6
1.5
1.9
2.5
2.3
1.8
4.5
Bulgaria
:
18.7
2.6
10.3
7.4
5.8
2.3
6.1
6.0
7.4
7.6
12.0
Czech Republic
8.0
9.7
1.8
3.9
4.5
1.4
-0.1
2.6
1.6
2.1
3.0
6.3
Denmark
2.0
1.3
2.1
2.7
2.3
2.4
2.0
0.9
1.7
1.9
1.7
3.6
Germany
1.5
0.6
0.6
1.4
1.9
1.4
1.0
1.8
1.9
1.8
2.3
2.8
Estonia
9.3
8.8
3.1
3.9
5.6
3.6
1.4
3.0
4.1
4.4
6.7
10.6
Ireland
1.3
2.1
2.5
5.3
4.0
4.7
4.0
2.3
2.2
2.7
2.9
3.1
Greece
5.4
4.5
2.1
2.9
3.7
3.9
3.4
3.0
3.5
3.3
3.0
4.2
Spain
1.9
1.8
2.2
3.5
2.8
3.6
3.1
3.1
3.4
3.6
2.8
4.1
France
1.3
0.7
0.6
1.8
1.8
1.9
2.2
2.3
1.9
1.9
1.6
3.2
Italy
1.9
2.0
1.7
2.6
2.3
2.6
2.8
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.0
3.5
Cyprus
3.3
2.3
1.1
4.9
2.0
2.8
4.0
1.9
2.0
2.2
2.2
4.4
Latvia
8.1
4.3
2.1
2.6
2.5
2.0
2.9
6.2
6.9
6.6
10.1
15.3
10.3
5.4
1.5
1.1
1.6
0.3
-1.1
1.2
2.7
3.8
5.8
11.1
1.4
1.0
1.0
3.8
2.4
2.1
2.5
3.2
3.8
3.0
2.7
4.1
18.5
14.2
10.0
10.0
9.1
5.2
4.7
6.8
3.5
4.0
7.9
6.0
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Hungary
18
HICP all-items, annual average inflation rates, 1997-2008 (%) Part II
-Eurostat1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2 008
Italy
1.9
2.0
1.7
2.6
2.3
2.6
2.8
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.0
3.5
Malta
3.9
3.7
2.3
3.0
2.5
2.6
1.9
2.7
2.5
2.6
0.7
4.7
Netherlands
1.9
1.8
2.0
2.3
5.1
3.9
2.2
1.4
1.5
1.7
1.6
2.2
Austria
1.2
0.8
0.5
2.0
2.3
1.7
1.3
2.0
2.1
1.7
2.2
3.2
Poland
15.0
11.8
7.2
10.1
5.3
1.9
0.7
3.6
2.2
1.3
2.6
4.2
Portugal
1.9
2.2
2.2
2.8
4.4
3.7
3.3
2.5
2.1
3.0
2.4
2.7
Romania
154.8
59.1
45.8
45.7
34.5
22.5
15.3
11.9
9.1
6.6
4.9
7.9
Slovenia
8.3
7.9
6.1
8.9
8.6
7.5
5.7
3.7
2.5
2.5
3.8
5.5
Slovakia
6.0
6.7
10.4
12.2
7.2
3.5
8.4
7.5
2.8
4.3
1.9
3.9
Finland
1.2
1.3
1.3
2.9
2.7
2.0
1.3
0.1
0.8
1.3
1.6
3.9
Sweden
1.8
1.0
0.5
1.3
2.7
1.9
2.3
1.0
0.8
1.5
1.7
3.3
United Kingdom
1.8
1.6
1.3
0.8
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.3
2.1
2.3
2.3
3.6
Turkey
85.6
82.1
61.4
53.2
56.8
47.0
25.3
10.1
8.1
9.3
8.8
10.4
Iceland
1.8
1.3
2.1
4.4
6.6
5.3
1.4
2.3
1.4
4.6
3.6
12.8
Norway
2.6
2.0
2.1
3.0
2.7
0.8
2.0
0.6
1.5
2.5
0.7
3.4
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
1.0
0.8
2.3
1.8
0.6
-0.3
-0.7
-0.7
-0.9
-0.3
0.0
-0.3
0.3
0.0
3.8
2.3
1.6
2.2
3.4
2.8
1.6
2.3
2.7
3.4
3.2
2.8
1.4
Switzerland
Japan
United States
19
Annual average rate of change in Harmonized Indices of Consumer Prices
(HICPs), G7 countries and EU-27, 1998-2010 (%)
-IMF, Eurostat1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Canada
1.0
1.7
2.7
2.5
2.3
2.7
1.8
2.2
2.0
2.1
2.4
0.0
0.5
France
0.7
0.6
1.8
1.8
1.9
2.2
2.3
1.9
1.9
1.6
3.2
0.5
1.0
Germany
0.6
0.6
1.4
1.9
1.4
1.0
1.8
1.9
1.8
2.3
2.8
0.1
-0.4
Italy
2.0
1.7
2.6
2.3
2.6
2.8
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.0
3.5
0.7
0.6
Japan
0.6
-0.3
-0.8
-0.7
-0.9
-0.3
0.0
-0.3
0.3
0.0
1.4
-1.0
-0.6
United Kingdom
1.6
1.3
0.9
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.3
2.0
2.3
2.3
3.6
1.5
0.8
United States
1.5
2.2
3.4
2.8
1.6
2.3
2.7
3.4
3.2
2.9
3.8
-0.9
-0.1
EU-27
1.3
1.2
1.9
2.2
2.1
2.0
2.0
2.2
2.2
2.3
3.7
:
:
20
> exports from
the extra-EU area
(+ 2.3 %)
and < from the
EU-area countries
(-2.4 %)
1997-2008:
external trade,
generalized increase
of imports
and exports
May’08-’09:
Deficit both
in the average
value of goods
imported from
EU countries
and from
extra-EU area
EXTERNAL
TRADE
Total foreign
trade, imports more
affected by
reduction of Italian
commercial
flows. Opposite in
trade with
EU countries
Italian exports, imports and balances trade with UE and in total, May 2009
-IstatValues in million of Euros
May 2009
Jan-May '09
Percentage changes (%)
May '09/
May '08
Jan-May '09/
Jan-May '08
Foreign trade with EU countries
Exports
(FOB values)
13 785
67 727
-31.7
-27.5
Imports
(CIF values)
13 154
67 168
-24.6
-24.6
631
559
Balance trade
Total foreign trade
Exports
(FOB values)
24 132
117 105
-27.0
-24.9
Imports
(CIF values)
22 945
120 602
-30.8
-25.6
1 187
-3 497
Balance trade
22
Development of external trade, Italy ( thousands EUR)
-Eurostat400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Imports
2002
2003
Exports
2004
Balance
2005
2006
2007
2008
Trade of Italy with EU-27 and external to EU-27 (%)
-Eurostat-
In EU-27
Ext EU27
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Share in
total exp
60.4
62.5
64.0
61.5
61.0
60.9
62.4
61.9
61.2
61.2
60.1
58.5
Share in
total imp
64.9
66.1
65.7
61.0
61.9
62.8
63.3
62.2
59.4
57.6
57.0
54.1
Share in
total imp
35.1
33.9
34.3
39.0
38.1
37.2
36.7
37.8
40.6
42.4
43.0
45.9
Share in
total exp
39.6
37.5
36.0
38.5
39.0
39.1
37.6
38.1
38.8
38.8
39.9
41.5
24
Current account transactions, Italy, 1997-2008 (1 000 million ECU/EUR)
-Eurostat-
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Exports
210.3
216.5
221.5
260.9
273.6
267.6
263.6
283.3
299.4
332.8
366.4
370.6
Imports
168.9
184.6
199.4
250.5
256.2
253.5
253.7
274.5
298.9
343.0
363.5
370.7
Balance
41.4
31.9
22.1
10.4
17.4
14.0
9.9
8.9
0.5
-10.2
2.9
0.0
Exports
64.0
60.0
55.1
61.3
64.4
63.5
63.4
68.2
71.9
78.7
81.6
83.7
Imports
62.2
56.4
54.0
60.1
64.4
66.6
65.8
67.0
72.4
80.0
88.6
91.5
Balance
1.8
3.6
1.1
1.1
0.0
-3.1
-2.4
1.2
-0.5
-1.3
-7.0
-7.8
Goods
Services
25
Labour market
conditions have worsened
as a result of the ongoing crisis:
growth in employment in 2008
lower than growth in the
number of unemployed
people
In 2008,
unemployment
grew once again
involving men to
a greater extent
In 2008, male’s population
represented the most part
of the Italian active population
although its weight on the
total decreased
LABOUR MARKET
(-) self-employed
workers
and (+) in employees
||
stability of standard
employment in 2008
compared with
2007
Active population, Italy, 1998-2008
-Eurostat-
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Total
23 066
23 248
23 464
23 678
23 891
24 102
24 364
24 451
24 661
24 727
25 096
Male
14 337
14 358
14 432
14 462
14 552
14 625
14 546
14 640
14 740
14 779
14 884
8 729
8 889
9 032
9 216
9 339
9 476
9 818
9 811
9 921
9 948
10 212
Female
27
Employment and unemployment rates by gender, Italy, 1997-2007 (%)
-Eurostat-
80
20
70
16
60
12
50
8
40
4
30
0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Males
Total
Females
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Females
Total
Males
28
Unemployment rate (% of total labour force) and employment rate (million of
persons) G7 countries, 2008
-IMF-
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
0
Canada
Canada
France
France
Germany
ITALY
50 000
100 000 150 000 200 000
Germany
ITALY
Japan
Japan
United Kingdom
United Kingdom
United States
United States
29






CONCLUSIONS
The worldwide economic slowdown is likely to hit Italy
hard.
The recession is likely to extend through much of 2009,
with a slow pick-up in 2010.
Falling export growth and deteriorating financial
conditions have hit investment hard.
Unemployment will rise significantly while inflation will
decline slowly.
The authorities have rightly abstained from significant
discretionary fiscal expansion, while redirecting some
spending within the existing budget envelope to better
sustain domestic demand, notably private consumption.
The budget deficit will nevertheless increase
substantially in 2009 as the recession hits revenues, and
may increase somewhat further in 2010 despite the
planned fiscal consolidation.
For any further inquiry,
please do not hesitate to contact
Gemma Asero
E-mail address: [email protected]
Gsm: +39.333.1043568 (Italy) +352.621.594020(Luxembourg)
Thank you for your attention