Transcript License Renewal - ANS / Constituencies / Local Sections

The Prospects for New Nuclear
Construction
Eugene S. Grecheck
Vice President
Nuclear Support Services
ANS Virginia Section Meeting
March 16, 2004
PP571.1
What You May Have Heard
(or what happened to the predictions of 1000
reactors by 2000?)
 No
new nuclear plant orders since 1978
 Licensing and construction takes too long
 Last new plant began operation in 1996
 Construction and operations and
maintenance costs are too high
 Licensing is unpredictable
PP571.2
If That’s True, Then…………...
 Many
existing units will shut down
prematurely
 Licenses will not be renewed
 No new units will ever be built
 Nuclear will fade from the nation’s energy
portfolio
So…… IS IT TRUE????
PP571.3
Industry Capacity Factor
Continues at Record Level
95
86.8% in 1999
89.6% in 2000
90.7% in 2001
91.5% in 2002
Capacity Factor (%)
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
'80
'82
'84
Nuclear Energy Institute
'86
'88
'90
'92
'94
'96
'98
'00
'02
Production Costs Show
Steady, Sustained Improvement
(production cost in cents per kilowatt-hour)
Production Cost (cents/kWh)
3.5
2.09 cents/kWh in 1998
1.90 cents/kWh in 1999
1.81 cents/kWh in 2000
1.68 cents/kWh in 2001
3
2.5
2
1.5
'81
'83
'85
'87
'89
'91
'93
'95
'97
'99
'01
US Electricity Production Costs (1981-2002)
in 2002 cents per kilowatt-hour
12.0
Nuclear 1.71
10.0
Coal 1.85
Gas 4.06
8.0
Oil 4.41
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
81 982 983 984 985 986 987 988 989 990 991 992 993 994 995 996 997 998 999 000 001 002
9
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2
Source: RDI /EUCG. Converted to 2002 dollars by NEI.
PP571.6
Industry Safety Performance shows steady
Improvement………………………
Number of Unusual Events Reported to NRC (1989-2002)
200 197
180
170
151
160
135
140
120
103
100
92
66
80
63
60
40
26
40
34
18
20
13
14
0
89
Source: NRC
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
2000 2001 2002
Note: A Notification of Unusual Event for power and non-power reactor licensees is a condition involving potential
degradation of the level of plant safety that does not represent an immediate threat to public health and safety.
PP571.7
Nuclear Plant Output:
Growth During the 1990s
Equivalent to 26 new 1,000-megawatt power plants
800
728
780
2001
2002
674
700
Billion kWh
754
769
641
600
577
500
1990
1994
1998
1999
Year
2000
License Renewal:
Unlocking Additional Value
Approved
Already filed
Already filed (cont’d)
Calvert Cliffs 1,2
Oconee 1,2,3
Arkansas Nuclear
One Unit 1
Hatch 1,2
Turkey Point 3,4
North Anna 1,2
Surry 1,2
Peach Bottom 2,3
St. Lucie 1,2
Catawba 1,2
McGuire 1,2
Fort Calhoun
Robinson 2
V.C. Summer
Ginna
Dresden 2,3
Quad Cities 1,2
Farley 1,2
Source: NRC
Updated : October 2003
Announced 2003
Arkansas Nuclear
One Unit 2
Cook 1,2
Browns Ferry 1,2,3
Announced 2004
Announced 2005
Millstone 2,3
Nine Mile Point 1,2
Brunswick 1,2
Beaver Valley 1,2
Davis-Besse
Pilgrim
Entergy Plant
Entergy Plant
Announced 2006
Susquehanna 1,2
Entergy Plant
Wolf Creek
PP571.9
Today’s State of the Nuclear Industry
 440
commercial reactors in 31 countries
 103 commercial reactors in the U.S.
 Overall, 16% of the world’s electricity
 15 countries: Over 25%, some over 70%
 31 new reactors under construction in
other countries - but none in the U.S.
…….yet!
PP571.10
Projected U.S. Energy Growth
450
393
400
350
313
Gigawatts...
300
231
250
200
150
100
96
50
0
2005
2010
2015
2020
Years
PP571.11
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2001
Capacity Brought on Line by Fuel Type
(1950-2002)
80,000
Name Plate Capacity MW
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
Other
Petroleum
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Coal
30,000
20,000
10,000
19
50
19
53
19
56
19
59
19
62
19
65
19
68
19
71
19
74
19
77
19
80
19
83
19
86
19
89
19
92
19
95
19
98
20
01
0
Source: RDI PowerDat database. Last updated 9/15/03.
PP571.12
Current U.S. Electricity Generation
Fuel Diversity (2002)
Oil
2%
Renewables
3%
Hydro
8%
Emission-free sources
Nuclear
20%
Natural Gas
17%
Coal
50%
Source: NEI
PP571.13
50,000 MWe of New Nuclear!
5000
4500
30%
nonemitting
Billion kWh
4000
3500
30%
nonemitting
3000
2500
New Nuclear Capability
(50,000 MWe)
Enhanced Nuclear Capability
(10,000 MWe)
2000
Existing Nuclear Capability
1500
1000
Hydro & Renewables
500
0
Oil, Gas & Coal
2000
2020
What Has Changed---and Is It
Enough?
 New
licensing process
 New plant designs
 More reliable and efficient operation
PP571.15
New NRC Licensing Process
 NRC
revised its regulations--Part 52--for
new nuclear plants over a decade ago
 Part
52 has three elements:
–
Design certification
–
Early site permitting
–
Combined license
PP571.16
NRC Licensing Process
OLD LICENSING
PROCESS
Apply for
Construction
Permit
License Issued AFTER
Large Capital Investment
Construction
Permit Issued
Construction
Apply for
Operating
License
Operating
License Issued
Operations
Early Site Permit
Combined License
Issued
Construction
ITAAC
Design Certification
NEW LICENSING
PROCESS
License Issued BEFORE
Large Capital Investment
Operation
What this Process Changes

Licensing decisions will be made BEFORE large capital
investments are made.
– Safety and environmental issues will be resolved before
construction starts
– NSSS and BOP design will be well developed before
COL application is submitted
– Plants will be almost fully designed before construction
starts

Result: High confidence in construction schedule
and cost control
Design Certification
Design Certification addresses design issues
early in the process
 Plants are designed to be constructed in less
than 48 months
 Each manufacturer’s plants will be a standard
certified design
 3 Design Certificates have been issued, 1 active
application in review

PP571.19
Early Site Permits (ESP)

Obtaining an ESP allows a company like
Dominion to “bank” a site for 20 years, with an
option to renew

If and when market conditions warrant,
nuclear may then be considered among a
variety of generation options

Dominion has no plans to build another
nuclear plant yet.
PP571.20
ESP Application Status



Dominion’s ESP
Application was
submitted on 9/25/03
Exelon submitted on
9/25/03
Entergy submitted on
10/21/03
PP571.21
Combined License
Combines the Early Site Permit and the
Design Certification into a site and technology
specific document
 When approved, provides authorization to
build and operate
 Resolves operational and construction issues
before construction begins
 Process has yet to be tested

PP571.22
New Nuclear Technologies
Innovative new reactor technologies are being
developed for deployment
 Passive and active safety system designs
 Some based on existing light and heavy water
designs; some on new gas-cooled technologies
 Bases in existing technology expected to yield
reliable operation
 Designed for short construction periods and
reduced construction costs
 All can be economically attractive

PP571.23
General Electric Advanced Boiling
Water Reactor








Net plant output, 1356 Mwe, 3926
MWth, with uprate to 1500 Mwe,
4300 MWth
Single, stand-alone unit
Licensed in three countries
Improved safety systems
Engineered in detail, except for site
engineering
Has been constructed in 48 months
Next ABWR unit will be the 5th in the
series
Design Certification has been issued
PP571.24
Westinghouse AP1000






3400 MWth, 1200 MWe
2 steam generators, 4 canned
reactor coolant pumps
Based on much existing
technology
Passive Design Features
Modular construction
– 36 Month Construction, First
Concrete to Fuel Load
Design Certification application
has been filed. Approval expected
in 2005
PP571.25
Atomic Energy
Canada, LTD
ACR-700








739 MWe, 1983 MWth
Designed for simultaneous
LOCA and Loss of ECCS
On-Power Refueling
Robust, safe, economical
Fuel Design
Compact, smaller Calandria
Horizontal fuel channels
Reduced Heavy Water
Inventory
Design Certification
application expected in 2004
PP571.26
General Electric ESBWR





1380MWe, 4000MWth
Passive Safety Systems to
Simplify Plant Design
Natural Circulation Reactor
Vessel
Designed for Improved
Reliability and
Maintainability
Design Certification
application expected in
2005
PP571.27
Other Plant Designs





Framatome SWR-1000
– 1250 MWe BWR, active and passive safety systems
Framatome EPR
– 1600 MWe advanced PWR, improved thermal
performance
Westinghouse IRIS
– 330 MWe PWR, single pressure vessel houses all
major components
Pebble Bed Modular Reactor
– 160 MWe Gas cooled, single cycle
General Atomics GT-MHR
– 285 MWe Gas cooled, single cycle
PP571.28
DOE Nuclear Power 2010
Objectives:
– Develop new technologies
– Demonstrate licensing process
– Encourage new nuclear development
 Cost-sharing approach
 Also supports advanced research and critical
education pipeline

PP571.29
Barriers to the Decision to Build






Licensing uncertainties with untested
processes
High initial unit costs
Financing risks
Earnings dilution during construction
High level waste disposal
Price-Anderson renewal
PP571.30
What’s Next?


Energy Bill
– Still stalled in Congress
– Potential for incentives to assist development of the
first new plants
– Gas Reactor Demonstration Project at INEEL
NP2010
– DOE solicitation to develop COL application to test
next step in licensing process
– Includes DOE match for FOAKE
PP571.31
Hypothetical Timeline for First Plant



Develop COL Application, complete necessary first of
a kind engineering (FOAKE)
– 24 months
NRC Review and Approval of COL Application
– 24-36 months
– Complete remainder of FOAKE
Construction of new plant
– 48-54 months, start of construction to commercial
operation
IT CAN ALL HAPPEN AS SOON AS 2013
PP571.32
Can it Really Happen?
It Can… and Must!
 Price
stability
 Energy diversity
 Emission-free generation
PP571.33
“The best way to predict the
future is to create it.”
-- Peter F. Drucker
PP571.34
PP571.35