Transcript Proposed FY 2012 – FY 2013 Capital Budget

HART
Transit Development Plan
June 20, 2011
Overview
• TDP Purpose
• Plan Elements
– Vision Plan
– Status Quo Plan
– Action Program
• Next Steps
Transit Development Plan
• Multi-year business plan
- Situation Appraisal
- Issues affecting HART
- Anticipated revenues
- Prioritized service and capital projects
• FDOT requirement
– Major update every 5 years
– Annual progress updates
• Provides framework for revised strategic plan
- Assessment, priorities and strategies
Issues Affecting Transit
• Population growth
– 1.23 Million in 2010 1
• 20% increase since 2000
• Higher growth in unincorporated
county – 30%; 17% for cities
• 70.6% increase in Hispanic or Latino
population
– Additional growth projected
• 1.73 Million – 2035 (38% increase) 2
• 1.47 Million – 2021 (17% increase) 3
2010 US Census
MPO 2035 LRTP Projection
Interpolation of MPO 2035 LRTP projection
Service Challenges
• Limited transit service
– Inadequate service on existing routes
– Many areas in County not served
– Lower per capita spending compared to other areas*
Service Area
# of
Population Systems
Avg.
High
Low
HART
0.5 to 1 Million
42
$99.77
$719.64
$4.69
$77.53
0.5 to 1.5 Million
57
$104.47
$719.64
$4.69
$77.53
* Source: 2009 NTD Data
Service
Patterns
Development
Patterns
40.00
35.00
30.00
25.00
2 - Nebraska
34 - Hillsborough
1 - Florida
12 - 22nd St
6 -56th St
7 - W.Tampa/Citrus Park
20X - Lutz
9 - 15th St
32 - Dr. MLK Jr. Blvd
5 - 40th St
39 - Busch Blvd
16 - Waters
27LX - Fishhawk/S. Brandon
18 - 30th St
37 - W. Brandon/Netp@rk
15 - Columbus
22X - Dover/Brandon
57 - UATC/Temple Terrace/Netp@rk
36 - Dale Mabry Hwy./Himes
14 - Armenia
45 - UATC/Rome Ave/Westshore
24X - FishHawk/Riverview/MacDill
8 -Progress Vilage/Brandon
10 - Cypress St
19 - Port Tampa
47LX - Southshore
30 - Town 'N Country/Airport
25LX - S Brandon/MacDill AFB
96 - Downtown Trolley - Purple Line
33 - Fletcher
28X - E. County
41 - Sligh
4 - Palma Ceia/MacDill AFB
46 - Davis Islands/W. Brandon
50X -Citrus Park/Carrollwood
51X - New Tampa
200X - Clearwater
23X - Temple Terrace
89 - S Tampa Connector
31 - S Hillsborough
88 - Town 'N Country
59LX - Westchase/Town 'N Country
97 - Downtown Trolley - Green Line
87 - Southshore Connector
35LX - Brandon - Southshore
Productivity by Route
Passengers per Revenue Hour
FY 2011 (10/1/2010 - 5/31/2011)
Service supply
– 95% Local
– 3.3% Express
– 1.7% Circulator
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
63% of Local
Ridership on
10 Routes
USF
Westshore
Downtown Tampa
Fixed Route Trends
FY 2006 – FY 2011 Ridership, Service, Productivity and Cost
FY
2006
FY
2007
FY
2008
FY
2009
FY
2010
10.70
11.15
12.04
11.64
12.26
13.27
14.6%
Service: Revenue Hours
556.0
(Thousands)
588.6
568.2
581.6
600.9
601.54
8.7%
Productivity: Passengers
19.24
per Revenue Hour
18.94
21.2
20.01
20.29
22.06
5.5%
$47.31 $49.95 $50.74 $56.15 $55.67
$56.69
17.7%
Ridership (Millions)*
Operating Expense
(Millions)**
*GFI farebox data
** Source: 2012-2013 HART budget
FY 2011 FY 2006-2010
(est.)
% Change
Fixed Route Implications
• Strong ridership growth
– 14.6% ridership increase: 2006 – 2010*
– 14% increase: 1st 8 months of FY2011
• More productive service
• Result of past service restructuring efforts
• Service modifications-proposed FY12 budget (6% )**
• Impacts ridership (2% decline)
* Ridership per GFI farebox data
** Service reductions represented as total miles (compared to FY 11 budget)
Paratransit Trends
FY 2006 – FY 2011 Ridership, Service, Productivity and Cost
FY
2006
FY
2007
FY
2008
FY
2009
FY
2010
Ridership *
(Thousands)
63.1
82.4
101.4
97.0
104.4
115.5
65.2%
Service: Revenue Hours
(Thousands)
46.4
56.0
67.2
66.2
69.8
74.7
50.7%
Productivity: Passengers
per Revenue Hour
1.36
1.47
1.51
1.47
1.49
1.55
9.6%
$2.08 $2.52
$3.00
$3.12
$3.71
$3.92
78.4%
Operating Expense
(Millions) **
FY 2011 FY 2006-2010
(est.)
% Change
* Ridership information based on National Transit Database (NTD) data
** Source: 2012-2013 HART Budget
Paratransit Implications
• Strong Ridership Growth
– 65% increase 2006-2010
– 18% increase – 1st 8 months of FY2011
– Service reductions from other agencies contribute
to ridership growth
• High service cost
• $33.35/passenger trip *
• Stringent federal requirements
• Continued focus on efficiency strategies
* Proposed FY 12 budget
Revenue
• Continued decline in ad valorem
– 21% between FY2008 and FY2012 (Projected with .5 mil)
• 27% decline with .4682 mil
• Uncertainty and potential reductions
– Ad valorem exemptions
– Federal and State funding
Vision Plan
• Program of services and projects to address
County mobility needs
• Defines community’s vision for transit over
the long term
Vision Plan
• Development Process
– Projects and services drawn from last year’s Rapid
Transit Investment Plan (RTIP)
– Updated to reflect additional analysis
• Demographics and development patterns
• Local and regional policies/plans
• Other agency initiatives
– RTIP scope revised to address financial issues
• Light rail projects not feasible with existing funding
Vision Plan
Bus-Oriented
Focus
• Local, express,
flex, paratransit
• Lower cost
strategies on
major corridors
– Bus Rapid
Transit
– Express service
on dedicated
lanes
Status Quo Plan
• Services and projects implemented with
existing funding sources
– Ad valorem, state and federal, passenger fares,
miscellaneous
• Coordinated with FY 2012/2013 Budget
development
• Additional projections to FY 2021
– Needs and revenues
Status Quo Operating Plan
Revenues (Millions)
2012
$59.7
2013
$62.2
2014
$60.4
2021
$73.2
Expenses (Millions)
$59.7
$62.2
$65.0
$77.5
Difference (Millions)
None
None
-$4.6
-$4.3
• FY 12 - FY13 balanced (Proposed budget: bus and paratransit)
• Reduced expenses – service and administrative
• Enhanced revenues – fare increase, ad valorem increase,
additional federal funding
• Shortfall starting in FY2014
• Increased expenses: MetroRapid N-S, Fuel, Insurance
• Reduced revenues
• Elimination of non recurring revenue
Status Quo Capital Plan
• FY 2012 and 2013
– Facility upgrades, state of good repair, buses, park and ride,
MetroRapid N-S
– Prior year funding awards: Federal and County
• Future Capital Needs
– State of Good Repair
• Fleet, facilities, infrastructure
– Improved Access to Transit
•
•
•
•
Accessibility
Transit Signal Priority – Countywide
Enhanced fareboxes – Smartcard, Open Payment
Additional technology
– Energy Initiatives
• CNG fueling facility/Maintenance modifications
• Solar panels
Status Quo Capital Plan
2012
2013
2014
20152021
Revenues (Millions)
$39.7
$13.4
$11.7
$25.3
Expenses (Millions)
$39.7
$13.4
$22.3
$79.7
Difference (Millions)
None
None
-$10.5
-$54.4
• Beginning in 2014: Cost of Needs > Programmed Revenues
• Uncertainty with Federal & State revenues
– Federal earmarks and flexible funding
– Formula funds – level and amount of funding required for
Operating Budget
– State block and competitive funding
Status Quo Plan Bus Acquisition
2012
2013
2014-2021
11
40
237
Total Cost (Millions)
$1.0
$8.8
$61.7
Funded (Millions)
$1.0
$8.8
$13.3
Unfunded (Millions)
None
None
$57.2
Number of Buses
• FY 2012 and 2013
– Bus replacement and MetroRapid North-South
– Program funded - prior year federal funding
• FY 2014-FY 2021
– 237 buses and vans needed – all replacement
– Uncertain Federal funding
Action Program
• Strategies to address needs and challenges
– Efficiency strategies
– Funding opportunities
– Partnerships
– Other initiatives
• Enhanced access
• Planning efforts
• Energy/sustainability projects
Action Program
• Continued Efficiency Strategies
– Service restructuring
– Paratransit demand management
• Real time scheduling
• Fare incentives
– Use of smaller vehicles
– Review service coordination opportunities
• Sunshine Line, USF
– Consortium purchases with other agencies
– Evaluation of additional outsourcing
opportunities
Action Program
• Funding Opportunities
– Competitive funding applications
• State
• Federal
– Participate in MPO Interagency Working Group
• Review alternative funding sources
– Other Initiatives
• Concessions
• Broader U-Pass application (Post-secondary
institutions)
• Additional advertising
Action Program
• Partnerships
– Tampa Hillsborough Expressway Authority(THEA)
• Feasibility study of bus toll lane concept
– Price managed lane
» Higher tolls in peak periods
» Used by HART buses
– Used by HART buses
– Potential operating funding for HART
– Hillsborough County Aviation Authority
• TIA Master Plan Update
• Opportunities for shared intermodal center
– Governmental and other transit agencies
• Service coordination
• Additional consortium purchases
Action Program
• Enhanced Access
– Accessibility improvements at stops and facilities
– Fare payment options (smartcard, credit/debit)
– Customer information (next bus arrival, cell phone
applications)
– Wi-Fi on buses
– Online trip reservations (flex and paratransit)
• Energy/Sustainability Initiatives
– Alternative fuel – CNG for fleet
– Solar panels
– LEED certification for 21st Avenue facility
Action Program
• Planning Initiatives
– MPO ‘Post Referendum’ analysis
• Lower cost service strategies
• Incremental approach to expanding transit
• Funding options
– City of Tampa Sustainability Study
• Transit supportive development strategies
• Downtown and Nebraska Avenue corridor
Next Steps
• Preparation of draft report
– Integrate public feedback and technical analysis
• HART Board review
– July 18 Finance Committee
– August 1 Board