Transcript ConferenceCode_SessionCode

Convención Nacional de Distribuidores
Computación en Acción.
Ing.Eduardo González Flores.
Director de Business Development
Gartner México, Julio 2005

Tendencias TI 2006… impacto y
oportunidades regionales para todos los
miembros de la Comunidad de
Distribuidores.
A Latin American Snapshot: Some Important
IT Trends
 By YE06, 80 percent of efforts to demonstrate business value in open-
source adoption will fail due to poorly conceived adoption strategies (0.7
probability)
 By YE07, Latin America, notably Brazil and Mexico, will become a
challenger in application development outsourcing and in niche business
process outsourcing (0.7 probability)
 By 2007, wireless and broadband technologies will be "good enough" to
be considered required components of most applications (0.8
probability)
 By 2008, in Latin America, real-time financial operations driven by
secure and ubiquitous electronic channels will represent 80 percent of
the total number of transactions (0.7 probability)
Client Issues
•
How different is the technology adoption curve
(Gartner Hype Cycle) in Latin America?
•
What are the key characteristics of Latin
American IT organizations?
•
What technology, business and management
trends are emerging in Latin America?
Latin America Means Diversity
Mexico
More Than 30 Nations
Venezuela
Colombia
Brazil
More Than 500 Million People
$123 Billion Market (IT) 2004
Peru
$134 Billion Market (IT) 2005
IT Spending CAGR at 7.7 Percent
Second-Highest Growth Region
Global Investors, Vendors, ...
Chile
Argentina
Technology Deployment:
Hype Cycle in Latin America
Visibility
ORIGINAL HYPE CYCLE
Passive RFID
Internal Web
Services
IP Telephony
DERIVED HYPE CYCLE
Real-Time,
Countrywide
Financial Services
Network
(Brazil)
Time
Hype Cycle for Emerging Trends and
Technologies in Latin America, 2005
Visibility
Key: Time to Plateau
BPM Suites
Wi-Fi
Broadband
Linux on the Desktop for
Wireless
Mainstream Business Users
(Fixed)
Less than two years
Two to five years
Five to 10 years
SES
Obsolete before Plateau
E-Learning
KM
Initiatives
ECM
Complex
Mission-Critical
Workloads (Linux)
CRM
WS
Interoperability
Wikis
Cable Modems
VoIP
DSL
Linux Midtier Applications
Basic Enterprise
Portals
BI Suites
Linux
Infrastructure
Document
Management
Internal Web Services
Managed
Print Services
As of January 2005
Technology
Trigger
Peak of Inflated
Expectations
Trough of
Disillusionment
Maturity
Slope of
Enlightenment
Plateau of
Productivity
What Is the Largest Problem Facing Your IT Organization In
the Next 12-18 Months (Three Most Important)?
Budgets/cost containment
438
Developing formal strategy for enterprisewide IT
security
364
Staffing and skills
328
Aligning IT with the needs/requirements of the
business
292
Have a mature enterprise security implementation
278
Ongoing management and measurement of security
effectiveness
276
Regulatory/compliance
251
Top 10 Business Trends
To what extent will each of the following business,
societal or government trends impact your
enterprise in 2005?
Rank Rank
2005 2004
Rank
WW
Improving business processes
1
*
1
Globalization
2
-
-
Security breaches and disruptions
3
2
2
Enterprisewide operating costs/budgets
4
4
3
Using intelligence in products and services
5
3
7
Data protection and privacy
6
5
5
Supporting competitive advantage
7
*
4
Increased BPO
8
-
-
Focus on internal controls
9
-
8
10
7
-
Enterprise risk management
)
Selected change in ranking compared with 2004
Source: Gartner EXP 2005 Survey of CIOs
*New question for 2005
Top 10 CIO Management Priorities
To what extent is each of the following CIO actions
a priority for you in 2005?
Rank Rank
2005 2004
Rank
WW
Delivering projects that enable business growth
1
*
1
Improving IT governance
2
5
10
Applying metrics to IT organization and services
3
-
4
Demonstrating the business value of IT
4
4
3
Consolidating the IT organization and operations
5
*
8
Linking business and IT strategies and plans
6
6
2
Improving the quality of IT service delivery
7
-
7
Developing leadership in the senior IT team
8
1
9
IT skills in business process
9
-
-
10
*
-
Internal controls in the IT
Selected change in ranking compared with 2004
Source: Gartner EXP 2005 Survey of CIOs
*New question for 2005
Top 10 CIO Technology Priorities
To what extent is each of the following
technologies a priority for you in 2005?
Rank Rank
2005 2004
Rank
WW
Security enhancement tools
1
1
1
Business intelligence applications
2
5
2
Voice and data over IP
3
-
7
Bus. process integration tools
4
-
9
Workflow management
5
6
4
ERP upgrades
6
10
5
Mobile workforce enhancement
7
-
3
CRM
8
-
8
Server virtualization
9
*
10
10
*
-
Real-time technologies
Selected change in ranking compared with 2004
Source: Gartner EXP 2005 Survey of CIOs
*New question for 2005
Top 10 CIO Management Priorities:
2008 Forecast
LA
WW
Projects that enable bus. growth
1
1
Demonstrating bus. value of IT
2
3
Tightening security and privacy
3
7
Linking bus. and IT strategies
4
2
Consolidating IT org/ops
5
-
IT skills in business process
6
-
Time to market for IT services
7
4
Improving IT governance
8
-
Developing leadership in IT
9
6
10
-
TQM/Six Sigma in IT
Source: Gartner EXP 2005 Survey of CIOs
Top 10 CIO Technology Priorities:
2008 Forecast
LA
WW
Business intelligence applications
1
1
Real-time enterprise technologies
2
3
Autonomic computing
3
-
Business process integration tools
4
7
Mobile workforce enablement
5
2
Remote sensing (such as RFID)
6
8
Workflow management
7
4
CRM
8
10
Voice and data over IP
9
5
10
-
Linux
Source: Gartner EXP 2005 Survey of CIOs
IT's Business Confidence Journey
Y2K
FUD
15.0
The IT
Moment
Of Truth
Dot-Com
and E-Biz
Mania
15.9
"IT Doesn't
Matter
Peace
Anymore" Dividend
9.7
10.1
'98
'99
'00
'01
1.3
0.0
'02
'03
1.4
'04
2.5
'05
Iraq
War
Sep 11th
Key:
Global IT spend growth. Gartner annual EXP WW survey of CIOs (2005 n > 1,300), Jan 05
Global economic confidence index ICC/Ifo WW poll of economic experts (2005 n > 1,100), Jan 05
Conclusion: Top 10 Technologies
Bluetooth
Linux
Portals
Instant Messaging
XBRL
Ontologies
Natural Language Search
Metadata Management
OLED/LEP
Tablet PCs
4G Wireless
Unified Communications
MEMS
Real-Time DW
WiMAX
Smartphones
iSCSI SANs
IP Telephony
SCM
Opteron
UWB
Software as Services
Real-Time Infra.
Mobile Applications
Micro Fuel Cells
RFID Tags
Speech Recognition
802.11g
Wikis
Mesh Networks
IT self-Service
Information Extraction
Taxonomies
Semantic Web
Location-Aware Services
Maturing Within 36 Months
Mission-critical Linux
Software as services
Instant messaging
Grid
Grid
CRM
Utility Computing
Nanocomputing
Zibgee
Microcommerce
E-Ink
Trusted Platforms
Camera Phones
MMS
Smart Dust
Partial Value Next Three Years
RFID tags
Microcommerce
Real-time infrastructure
Mesh networks
Location-aware services
OLED/LEP displays
Disruptive Innovation Means
the Need for InfoSecurity Is Here to Stay
Due Care Then
??
Due
Care
Now
After Each
Paradigm
Shift —
a New
Need For
Security
PC
Mainframe Era
The Next
Big Thing
C/S
Wireless Web
LAN
Internet
Services
Time
Hyper X
Quantum Y
Nano Z
Advances in Technology: Networks Go
Wireless Broadband
Wi-Fi
Services (ESPs, ISPs, ...)
802.11G/B
IT Infrastructure
TELCOS
Cafés
Business Centers
Food Courts
Residential Broadband Cable
Hotels
Technology Evolution:
Supporting Massive BI Use
Thousands of Users
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Hundreds of
Thousands of Users
Millions of Users
Published
reporting

Spreadsheet
extracts


Simplified Web
interfaces
Deep Excel integration
End-user self-service
Ad hoc query and
spreadsheets

Guided analysis
OLAP viewing

Data mining

Statistics
2004
– Predefined workflows
– Intelligent assumptions


– Information "finds" users
– Context-based alerts
– Role- and business-ruleoriented
– Adaptive personalization

2006
Advanced
interpretation
– Sophisticated analyses
– Automated analytic
process-flow
– System-directed
Advanced
visualization
– Color, size, shape,
texture and movement
2005
"Information
magnetism"
2007
Casual
User
Power
User
2008
Software Sophistication
Administrative Burden
User Knowledge
Open-Source Software Will Be More Attractive
and Gain Traction in Latin America
High Enterprise
Mainstream
Acceptance
Deployment
Advantages
Early Adopters
Price/performance
Market segments
Platform maturity
Skills
IT executive buy-in
Low OS maturity
1998
2000-2001
Best Case
Worst Case
IT infrastructure integration
Business process re-engineering
Legacy replacements
Cross-platform directory/security
Standards and Unix unification
Vendor support
Mission-critical services
Proven TCO with complexity
Broad ISV acceptance
2002-2003
Text — Good Progress
Text — Improving
Text — Slow Progress
2007
Recommendations

Design architectures and strategies based on the fundamental and inevitable
confluence of:
– Real-time infrastructure
– Wireless broadband and low-cost, low-power-consumption mobile devices
– SOA

Generate short-term benefits and show long-term opportunities

Know the long-term consequences of each near-term savings

Prepare for the eventual economic and budget recovery

Remember: The trigger year is 2006: The future will be terrific for those that
upgrade their skills now

Plan for massive vendor consolidation, which is inevitable

Remember: CIOs in Latin America are thinking in line with the rest of the world

Consider offshore IT services, but look within the region — nearshore

Remember: Innovation and financial services are core topics in
the Latin American region