Transcript Document

Jason Sartori
National Center for Smart Growth
[email protected]
April 12, 2013
• Neighborhood conditions and access to opportunity play
a crucial role in life outcomes. (Kirwan Institute, 2007)
• Opportunity:
– A set of circumstances that makes it possible to do something.
(Google)
– Includes the structures of environmental conditions that
contributed to community stability and individual
advancement. (Kirwan Institute)
• Access to Opportunity: Deliberately connecting people to
the critical resources needed to excel and succeed in
society. (Kirwan Institute)
• Opportunity mapping is a process and a tool that
allows us to identify areas of high or low opportunity.
• Can also assess the accessibility of different
population groups to various forms of opportunity.
• Where you live generally determines:
– The quality of schools your children attend
– Access to employment
– Access to health care and other services
– Exposure to crime
– Exposure to environmental and health risks
• Understanding the opportunity landscape in the
Baltimore metropolitan region is vital to strengthening
the region’s quality of life and making the region more
sustainable.
Kirwan: Austin, TX
Source: The Kirwan Institute for the Study of Race and Ethnicity, “The Geography of Opportunity: Austin
Region,” 2007.
http://www.greendoors.org/docs/opportunity_mapping/Austin_Opportunity_Report.pdf
Kirwan: Connecticut
Source: The Kirwan Institute for the Study of Race and Ethnicity, “Connecticut
Opportunity Mapping Initiative: Results and Resource Materials,” 2009.
http://kirwaninstitute.osu.edu/connecticut-opportunity-mapping-initiativeresults-and-resource-materials/
Kirwan: Puget Sound
Source: The Kirwan Institute for the Study of Race and Ethnicity, “Equity, Opportunity,
And Sustainability In The Central Puget Sound Region,” 2012.
http://www.psrc.org/assets/7831/EquOppSusReport2.pdf
Kirwan: Baltimore
• Economic Opportunity and Mobility
– Number of estimated entry level and low skill employment
– Ratio of entry level and low skill employment opportunities per
1,000 residents
– Absolute change in employment from 1998 to 2002
– Access to public transit
– Median commute time
• Neighborhood Health
–
–
–
–
–
Population change from 1990 to 2000
Estimated crime rates in 2000
Poverty Rates for the general population in 2000
Vacant property rates in 2000
Median home value in 2000
• Educational Opportunity
– Proportion of FARM students of elementary and middle school
– Proportion of classes not taught by highly qualified teachers in
2004
– Proportion of elementary students proficient in reading
– Proportion of elementary students proficient in math
Source: The Kirwan Institute for the Study of Race and Ethnicity, 2005.
• Opportunity Collaborative Process
– Comprehensive review of indicators with Opportunity
Mapping Advisory Panel (OMAP)
– OMAP meetings include consortium partners from across
the region as well as subject matter experts
– Weighting exercises
Potential Baltimore Opportunity Mapping Indicators
Education
• Headstart Programs
• Elementary School
MSA Performance
• Middle School MSA
Performance
• High School MHSA
Performance
• Percent of Teachers
Highly Qualified
• Advanced Placement
Enrollment
• Advanced Placement
Scores
• SAT Scores
• High School Dropout
Rate
• Proximity to
Community Colleges
• Proximity to Private
Career Schools
Housing and
Neighborhood
Quality
• Housing Value
• Gross Rent
• Percent Multi-Family
• Dwelling Grade
• Housing Costs as
Percent of Income
• Cost Burden
• Housing Affordability
Index
• Housing +
Transportation Index
• High Cost Loan Rate
• Foreclosure Rate
• Vacancy Rate
• Crime Rate
Social Capital
• Proximity to Religious
and Social
Organizations
• Proximity to Public
Institutions
• Population 25-44
• Racial Diversity
• High School Diploma
• Bachelors Degree
• Median Household
Income
• Households in Poverty
• Labor Force
Participation Rate (1664)
• % of Labor Force (16+)
Unemployed
• Population Density
• Homeownership Rate
• Single Parent
Households
Public Health
and
Environment
• Cancer Risk
• Neurological Disease
Risk
• Respiratory Disease
Risk
• Proximity to
Emergency Services
• Proximity to Social
Services
• Proximity to Hospitals
• Proximity to
Freestanding
Ambulatory Surgical
and Emergency
Centers
• Proximity to Grocery
Stores
• Access to Parks
Employment
and Economic
• Access to Employment
by Skill Level and Mode
• Number of Jobs by Skill
Level
• Job Density by Skill
Level
Transportation
and Mobility
• Proximity to Transit
Stations
• Walkability Score
• Commute
Lengths/Time
DATA DISTRIBUTION
RACIAL DIVERSITY INDEX*
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•
•
•
•
•
•
Region – 0.32
Anne Arundel – 0.34
Baltimore – 0.33
Carroll – 0.13
Harford – 0.27
Howard – 0.52
Baltimore City – 0.28
OPPORTUNITY RELATIONSHIP
• Direct
DATA SOURCE
• U.S. Census Bureau,
American Community
Survey 5-year Estimates,
2011
*Averages of census tracts in
each jurisdiction.
CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS
SOCIAL CAPITAL INDICATORS
Religious Organizations
Social Organizations
Religious + Social
Public Institutions
Population 25-44
Racial Diversity
% with HS Diploma
% with Bachelors
Median Income
% Poverty
Labor Force Part. Rate
% Unemployed
Population Density
Homeownership Rate
Single Parent Household
-0.128
0.112
-0.036
-0.081
0.436
1.000
0.074
0.189
-0.013
-0.067
0.135
-0.160
-0.001
-0.204
-0.131
DATA DISTRIBUTION
MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME
•
•
•
•
•
•
Anne Arundel – $85,690
Baltimore – $65,411
Carroll – $83,325
Harford – $79,953
Howard – $105,692
Baltimore City – $40,100
OPPORTUNITY RELATIONSHIP
• Direct
DATA SOURCE
• U.S. Census Bureau,
American Community
Survey 5-year Estimates,
2011
CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS
SOCIAL CAPITAL INDICATORS
Religious Organizations
Social Organizations
Religious + Social
Public Institutions
Population 25-44
Racial Diversity
% with HS Diploma
% with Bachelors
Median Income
% Poverty
Labor Force Part. Rate
% Unemployed
Population Density
Homeownership Rate
Single Parent Household
-0.531
-0.313
-0.444
-0.280
-0.073
-0.013
0.684
0.709
1.000
-0.709
0.455
-0.530
-0.504
0.714
-0.430
DATA DISTRIBUTION
BACHELOR’S DEGREE
•
•
•
•
•
•
Anne Arundel – 36.3%
Baltimore – 35.2%
Carroll – 31.5%
Harford – 30.9%
Howard – 58.7%
Baltimore City – 25.8%
OPPORTUNITY RELATIONSHIP
• Direct
DATA SOURCE
• U.S. Census Bureau,
American Community
Survey 5-year Estimates,
2011
CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS
SOCIAL CAPITAL INDICATORS
Religious Organizations
Social Organizations
Religious + Social
Public Institutions
Population 25-44
Racial Diversity
% with HS Diploma
% with Bachelors
Median Income
% Poverty
Labor Force Part. Rate
% Unemployed
Population Density
Homeownership Rate
Single Parent Household
-0.263
0.043
-0.141
-0.100
0.077
0.189
0.716
1.000
0.709
-0.487
0.371
-0.522
-0.258
0.313
-0.488
Sample Weighting Exercise
Social Capital Indicators
Religious + Social Organizations
Public Institutions
Population 25-44
Racial Diversity
High School Diploma
Bachelors Degree
Median Household Income
Households in Poverty
Labor Force Participation Rate (16-64)
Percent of Labor Force (16+) Unemployed
Population Density
Homeownership Rate
Single Parent Households
Indicator
Weight
9%
7%
5%
11%
6%
10%
9%
10%
6%
7%
7%
10%
3%
MEDIAN HOUSING VALUE
•
•
•
•
•
•
Anne Arundel - $361,700
Baltimore - $269,400
Carroll - $342,900
Harford - $295,900
Howard - $447,000
Baltimore City - $163,700
DATA SOURCE
• U.S. Census Bureau,
American Community
Survey 5-year Estimates,
2011
HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS
Housing Value
Gross Rent
Improved Value
Age of Structure
% Owner Occupied
% Renter Occupied
Change Total HU
Change Occupied HU
Change Owner HU
Change Renter HU
% SF Detached
% SF Attached
% Multi-Family
Dwelling Grade
1.00
0.50
0.51
-0.52
0.53
-0.53
0.02
0.04
0.07
0.09
0.64
-0.60
-0.23
0.58
ACCESS TO VEHICLES
% Occupied w/o Veh.
% Owner w/o Veh.
% Renter w/o Veh.
-0.59
-0.57
-0.62
HOUSING BURDEN/AFFORDABILITY
SMOC as % Income
-0.31
GR as % Income
-0.22
Gross Rent/FMR
0.47
CB - Owner 35%
-0.31
CB - Renter 35%
-0.23
CB - Owner 50%
-0.32
CB - Renter 50%
-0.16
Housing Affordability
-0.50
H+T Index (Local)
-0.64
H+T Index (AMI)
0.79
High Cost Loan
-0.77
FORECLOSURES AND VACANCIES
Foreclosure
-0.78
Vacancy (All)
-0.47
Vacancy (Market)
-0.48
Vacancy (Aband.)
-0.43
HOUSING POLICY LAYERS
Housing Capacity
0.19
LOCAL H+T AFFORDABILITY
• Housing plus
transportation cost as a
percent of median income
(for the Census tract)
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Region – 46.5%
Anne Arundel – 40.5%
Baltimore – 46.8%
Carroll – 43.7%
Harford – 42.6%
Howard – 38.2%
Baltimore City – 64.5%
DATA SOURCES
• H+T Costs: Center for
Neighborhood
Technology, 2009
• Median Income: U.S.
Census Bureau, American
Community Survey 5-year
Estimates, 2009
HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS
Housing Value
Gross Rent
Improved Value
Age of Structure
% Owner Occupied
% Renter Occupied
Change Total HU
Change Occupied HU
Change Owner HU
Change Renter HU
% SF Detached
% SF Attached
% Multi-Family
Dwelling Grade
-0.64
-0.43
-0.42
0.38
-0.68
0.68
-0.12
-0.14
-0.19
0.00
-0.53
0.36
0.38
-0.24
ACCESS TO VEHICLES
% Occupied w/o Veh.
% Owner w/o Veh.
% Renter w/o Veh.
0.70
0.56
0.65
HOUSING BURDEN/AFFORDABILITY
SMOC as % Income
0.30
GR as % Income
0.30
Gross Rent/FMR
-0.42
CB - Owner 35%
0.38
CB - Renter 35%
0.29
CB - Owner 50%
0.41
CB - Renter 50%
0.30
Housing Affordability
0.24
H+T Index (Local)
1.00
H+T Index (AMI)
-0.47
High Cost Loan
0.60
FORECLOSURES AND VACANCIES
Foreclosure
0.64
Vacancy (All)
0.49
Vacancy (Market)
0.37
Vacancy (Aband.)
0.47
HOUSING POLICY LAYERS
Housing Capacity
-0.11
REGION H+T
AFFORDABILITY
• Housing plus
transportation cost as a
percent of AMI (region
includes Queen Anne’s
County)
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Region – 46.5%
Anne Arundel – 52.6%
Baltimore – 45.1%
Carroll – 53.1%
Harford – 49.9%
Howard – 57.9%
Baltimore City – 35.6%
DATA SOURCE
• Center for Neighborhood
Technology, 2009
HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS
Housing Value
Gross Rent
Improved Value
Age of Structure
% Owner Occupied
% Renter Occupied
Change Total HU
Change Occupied HU
Change Owner HU
Change Renter HU
% SF Detached
% SF Attached
% Multi-Family
Dwelling Grade
0.79
0.51
0.49
-0.62
0.62
-0.62
-0.16
-0.15
-0.06
-0.01
0.63
-0.52
-0.33
0.43
ACCESS TO VEHICLES
% Occupied w/o Veh.
% Owner w/o Veh.
% Renter w/o Veh.
-0.67
-0.61
-0.67
HOUSING BURDEN/AFFORDABILITY
SMOC as % Income
-0.20
GR as % Income
-0.25
Gross Rent/FMR
0.48
CB - Owner 35%
-0.26
CB - Renter 35%
-0.26
CB - Owner 50%
-0.27
CB - Renter 50%
-0.19
Housing Affordability
-0.21
H+T Index (Local)
-0.47
H+T Index (AMI)
1.00
High Cost Loan
-0.59
FORECLOSURES AND VACANCIES
Foreclosure
-0.60
Vacancy (All)
-0.55
Vacancy (Market)
-0.55
Vacancy (Aband.)
-0.45
HOUSING POLICY LAYERS
Housing Capacity
0.22
INDICATOR TITLE
Elementary School Performance
DESCRIPTION
Average combined ‘proficient’
and ‘advanced’ score share of all
elementary school Maryland
School Assessment scores.
RELATIONSHIP TO OPPORTUNITY
Direct
SOURCE
MSDE, 2011