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CSP Market Prediction
Tessera®
®
CSP Projections-Japan only
Source: NIKKEI MICRODEVICES 2/98
UNITS: millions
Hyundai
LG Semicon
Samsung
Intel
Oki
Rohm
Mitsubishi
Toshiba
Hitachi
Sony
NEC
Matsushita
TI Japan
Sharp
Fujitsu
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
MWW
6/1/98
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Tessera®
®
CSP Projections
Source: Redpoint Research 4/98
UNITS: millions
3,000
Cards
2,500
HDDs
WS/Servers
2,000
PCs
1,500
PDAs
Digital Cameras
1,000
Camcorders
Pagers
500
Mobile phones
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
MWW
6/1/98
Tessera®
®
CSP Projections
Source: TechSearch International ‘98
UNITS: millions
3,500
3,000
2,500
Lead Frame
Rigid
Flex
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
MWW
6/1/98
2002
Tessera®
®
CSP Projections
Source: VLSI Research 5/98
UNITS: millions
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
CSP
1,000
500
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
MWW
6/1/98
Tessera®
®
CSP Projections
Source: Electronics Trend Publications ‘98
UNITS: millions
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
CSP
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
MWW
6/1/98
Tessera®
®
CSP Projections
UNITS: millions
100,000
Nikkei-Japan
10,000
Redpoint
1,000
Techsearch
100
VLSI Research
10
Electronic Trends
Pub.
1
MWW
6/1/98
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Tessera®
®
CSP PROJECTIONS-SUMMARY
YEARLY UNITS (millions)
100,000
10,000
Nikkei-Japan
Nikkei World
Redpoint
Techsearch
VLSI Research
Electronic Trends Pub.
Average of all data
1,000
100
10
Data from each source for years
1996-2002 is plotted using
exponential regression-Growth
Function
1
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Tessera®
®
CSP PROJECTIONS-SUMMARY
YEARLY UNITS (millions)
100,000
10,000
Nikkei-Japan
1,000
Redpoint
Techsearch
VLSI Research
100
Electronic Trends Pub.
Average of all data
10
1
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Data from each source for years
1997-2002 is plotted using
exponential regression -Growth
Function
MWW 6/14/98
Tessera®
®
CSP PROJECTIONS-SUMMARY
100,000
YEARLY UNITS (millions)
10,000
Nikkei-Japan
1,000
Redpoint
Techsearch
VLSI Research
Electronic Trends Pub.
100
Average
10
Data from each source for
years 1997-2000 is plotted
using exponential regression Growth Function
1
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
MWW 6/14/98
Tessera®
®
CSP PROJECTIONS-SUMMARY
100,000
YEARLY UNITS (millions)
10,000
1,000
Nikkei-Japan
Techsearch
Electronic Trends Pub.
Average
100
10
Data from each source for years
1997-2000 is plotted using
exponential regression -Growth
Function
1
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
MWW 6/15/98
Tessera®
®
Raw Data for CSP Projections
Nikkei-Japan
Redpoint
Techsearch
VLSI Research
Electronic Trends Pub.
Average
1996
36
18
1997
211
15
139
91.2
158
102
1998
600
73
627
229.1
554
347
1999
1024
350
1489
320.8
1,494
780
2000
1754
1059
1964
654.8
2,869
1,383
2001
2002
1742
2436
1342.6
4,430
2,488
2552
2901
2520
6,144
3,529
MWW 6/15/98
Tessera®
®
Flash-Market Outlook by CSP Type
Manufacturer 1997 Revenue 97 Market
(and "partners")
($-Millions)
Share
Intel
AMD
Atmel
Fujitsu
Sharp
SGS-Thompson
Others (TI)
Total
m BGA
m BGA
m BGA
Licensee
by Merchant
License Potential
X
X
X
X
$940
$626
$280
$200
$140
$84
$696
32%
21%
9%
7%
5%
3%
23%
X
X
X
X
X
X
$2,966
100%
56%
of market
65%
other CSP
X
X
X
X
X
?
X
59%
Tessera microBGA availability covers 65% or more of the Flash market.
All other CSPs combined cover maximum 59% of the market .
Data Source: Electronic Buyers Guide
MWW 6/15/98
Tessera®
®
SRAM-Market Outlook by CSP Type
Manufacturer 1997 Revenue 97 Market
(and "partners")
($-Millions)
Share
Samsung
Hitachi
Toshiba
NEC
Motorola
Mitsubishi
Cypress
IDT
Winbond
Sony
Others (IBM)
$590
$500
$350
$320
$317
$315
$274
$244
$115
$93
$621
16%
13%
9%
9%
8%
8%
7%
7%
3%
2%
17%
$3,739
m BGA
m BGA
m BGA
Licensee
by Merchant
License Potential
X
X
X
other CSP
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
32%
of market
X
44%
45%
Tessera microBGA availability covers >32% of the SRAM capacity.
All other CSPs combined 45% of the market volume.
Data Source: Electronic Buyers Guide
MWW 6/15/98
Tessera®
®
DRAM-Market Outlook by CSP Type
Manufacturer 1997 Revenue 97 Market
(and "partners")
($-Millions)
Share
Samsung
NEC
Hyundai
Hitachi
Micron
Texas Instruments
Mitsubishi
Toshiba
LG Semicon
Fujitsu
Matsushita
Oki
IBM
Siemans
Vanguard
Motorola
Others
Total
mBGA
mBGA
mBGA
Licenseee
by Merchant
License Potential
$3,700
$2,301
$1,930
$1,897
$1,649
$1,280
$1,223
$1,160
$1,157
$862
$850
$800
$760
$650
$450
$400
$232
17%
11%
9%
9%
8%
6%
6%
5%
5%
4%
4%
4%
4%
3%
2%
2%
1%
X
$21,301
100%
50%
of market
other CSP
£gBGA
RDRAM
X
X
X
?
X
X
Y
N
Y
Y
Y
Y
N
Y
Y
Y
N
N
Y
Y
N
N/A
?
34%
26%
48%
71%
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Tessera microBGA availability covers 84% of the DRAM capacity.
All other CSPs combined cover 48% of the market volume.
Data Source: Electronic Buyers Guide
MWW 6/15/98
Tessera®
®
Merchant-Market Outlook by CSP Type
Manufacturer
(and "partners")
1997 Revenue 97 Market
($-Millions)
Share
m BGA
m BGA
Licensee
License Potential
Amkor/Anam
ASE
Hyundai/ChipPAC
ASAT
Mitsui High-tec
Siliconware
OSE
Alphatec
HANA
Shinko
Hitachi Cable
IPAC
Others
$1,750
$435
$425
$380
$360
$325
$320
$295
$265
$250
$240
$30
$950
29%
7%
7%
6%
6%
5%
5%
5%
4%
4%
4%
0%
16%
X
X
X
Total
$6,025
100%
58%
of market
other CSP
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
?
26%
44%
Tessera mBGA availability covers 65% of the Merchant capacity.
All other CSPs combined cover only 44% of the market volume.
Data Source: Electronic Buyers Guide
MWW 6/15/98
Tessera®
®
CSP Projections
UNITS: millions
100,000
10,000
Nikkei-Japan
Nikkei-World
Redpoint
Techsearch
VLSI Research
Electronic Trends Pub.
1,000
100
10
MWW
6/1/98
1
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Tessera®
®