Transcript Population Growth Trends in Maryland, 2000-2006

Population Trends in
Maryland, 2000-2006
2007 Spring Planning Directors
Meeting
May 22, 2007
Population Data Source
• U.S. Census Bureau annual estimates
through July 1, 2006
– Data for states released end of December, 2006
– Data for counties released end of March, 2007
U.S. Census Bureau Population
Cohort Component Estimates
• Births & deaths from administrative records
• Internal (domestic) migration from federal
tax returns and Medicare records
• International migration – a national estimate
is distributed to states & counties based on
Census 2000 ratios
Maryland Population, 2000 & 2006
(and rank within U.S.)
6,000,000
5,296,486
5,615,727
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
2000
2006
(19th)
(19th)
Maryland Population Change,
2000- 2006
• Total Change = 319,221 (14th largest)
• Percent Change = 6.0% (21st fastest)
– But below the overall U.S. rate of 6.4%
Annual Population Change for Maryland
(and rank within U.S.)
68,100
70,000
61,554
60,000
65,335
50,000
46,565
40,000
36,350
30,000
20,000
26,128
15,189
14th
14th
10th
16th
18th
27th
7/1/027/1/03
7/1/037/1/04
7/1/047/1/05
7/1/057/1/06
10,000
0
4/1/007/1/00
7/1/007/1/01
7/1/017/1/02
Annual Pct Change in Pop in Maryland,
2000- 2006 (and rank within U.S.)
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
0.8%
0.8%
0.7%
0.6%
0.4%
0.5%
0.3%
13th
18th
7/1/007/1/01
7/1/017/1/02
12th
22nd
27th
36th
7/1/047/1/05
7/1/057/1/06
0.2%
0.0%
4/1/007/1/00
7/1/027/1/03
7/1/037/1/04
Net Natural Change (Births – Deaths) for
Maryland
35,000
30,046 28,920 29,792 30,894 31,144 30,173
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
8,189
5,000
0
4/1/007/1/00
7/1/007/1/01
7/1/017/1/02
7/1/027/1/03
7/1/037/1/04
7/1/047/1/05
7/1/057/1/06
Net International Migration and Federal
Citizens’ Movement for Maryland
25,000
23,618
21,917
20,995
20,000
19,783
21,135
15,655
15,000
10,000
6,627
5,000
0
4/1/007/1/00
7/1/007/1/01
7/1/017/1/02
7/1/027/1/03
7/1/037/1/04
7/1/047/1/05
7/1/057/1/06
Net Internal Migration for Maryland,
2000 – 2006 *
15,000
13,309
10,015
10,000
8,560
5,000
0
-5,000
-10,000
(40th)
(42nd)
(43rd)
190
(24th)
(14th)
(11th)
(15th)
-7,801
-11,680
-15,000
-20,000
-25,000
-25,610
-30,000
4/1/00- 7/1/00- 7/1/01- 7/1/02- 7/1/03- 7/1/04- 7/1/057/1/00 7/1/01 7/1/02 7/1/03 7/1/04 7/1/05 7/1/06
* And rank of net internal migration among the 50 states and District of Columbia
Components of Population Change for
Maryland: 2000 - 2006
200,000
189,158
150,000
129,730
100,000
50,000
13,350
0
-13,017
-50,000
Net Natural
Change
International
Migration
Domestic
Migration
Residual
Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, December, 2006
Reasons for Maryland Net
Internal Out Migration
• Decreasing relative “economic vitality”
• Higher housing costs compared to
neighboring states
Annual Pct Change in MD W&S Jobs and
Pct Pt Difference: MD – U.S.
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
-4%
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
-5%
Pct change in MD W&S jobs
Pct Pt Difference: Maryland - U.S.
Intra-U.S. Net Migration Flows for Maryland (Less Wash. D.C.) and
Differential in Job Growth (MD-U.S.)
20
3.0%
15
2.0%
10
1.0%
0
0.0%
-5
-10
-1.0%
-15
-2.0%
-20
Migration
Job Growth Differential
-3.0%
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
-25
Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, Planning Data Services based on summary data prepared by the Internal Revenue Service.
Job Growth Differential
Migration (thousands)
5
2000 Median Value of Owner Occupied
Housing – Bordering Counties, MD & PA
$600,000
$500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
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2005 Median Value of Owner Occupied
Housing – Bordering Counties, MD & PA*
$600,000
$500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
* Median value, plus and minus the margin of error
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Change in Median Value of Owner
Occupied Housing, 2000-2005
$300,000
$200,000
175,100
150,100
98,200 89,800
$100,000
74,900
40,400 48,400 31,800 47,700
Source: Census 2000 and the 2005 American Community Survey
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2005 Median Value of Owner Occupied
Housing Built Between 2000 and 2004 *
$600,000
$500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
* Median value, plus and minus the margin of error
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Inmigration to Maryland From PA and
Outmigration from Maryland To PA
20,000
16,000
12,000
8,000
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Inflows
2002
Outflows
2003
2004
2005
Net Migration for Maryland With
Pennsylvania
0
-1,000
-169
-735
-458
-450
-126
-1,218
-2,000
-3,000
-3,070
-4,000
-4,337
-5,000
-6,000
-7,000
-6,889
-8,000
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Net Migration for Maryland With
Pennsylvania
2,000
1,000
0
-1,000
-2,000
-3,000
-4,000
-5,000
-6,000
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Border counties *
2002
2003
2004
Rest of Maryland
*Baltimore, Carroll, Frederick, Harford & Washington
2005
Net Migration for Maryland With
West Virginia
0
-500
-1,000
-1,284
-1,500
-1,578
-1,606
-2,000
-2,085
-2,500
-2,379
-3,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
-2,822
2005
Net Migration for Maryland With
Delaware
0
-200
-400
-600
-607
-800
-1,000
-801
-859
-985
-1,200
-1,400
-949
-1,600
-1,560
-1,800
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Total Population Change for Maryland’s
Jurisdictions, 2000 - 2006
Montgomery
Prince George's
40,624
Baltimore
33,092
Frederick
27,662
Howard
24,610
Harford
22,812
Charles
19,870
Anne Arundel
19,644
Carroll
19,363
Calvert
14,241
Cecil
13,555
St. Mary's
12,622
Washington
11,825
Wicomico
7,343
Queen Anne's
5,678
Caroline
2,845
Worcester
2,324
Talbot
2,250
Somerset 1,026
Dorchester 957
Kent 786
Garrett 13
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
57,966
50,000
60,000
70,000
Population Change, 2000 - 2006
0
-2,099
-4,000
-8,000
-12,000
-16,000
-20,000
-19,788
-24,000
Baltimore City
(-3.0%)
Allegany
(-2.8%)
Components of Population Change for
Allegany County, 2000-2006
400
236
137
0
-243
-400
-800
-862
-1,200
-1,367
-1,600
Net
natural
change
Foreign Domestic Group Residual
Mig
Mig
Quarters
Components of Population Change for
Baltimore City, 2000-2006
40,000
20,000
27,828
8,609
7,943
1,617
0
-20,000
-40,000
-60,000
-65,785
-80,000
Net
natural
change
Foreign Domestic Group Residual
Mig
Mig
Quarters
Net Internal Migration for Baltimore City
0
-2,000
-4,000
-3,341
-6,000
-8,000
-8,597
-10,000
-10,773
-10,160
-12,008
-12,000
-14,000
-7,854
-13,052
4/1/00- 7/1/00- 7/1/01- 7/1/02- 7/1/03- 7/1/04- 7/1/057/1/00 7/1/01 7/1/02 7/1/03 7/1/04 7/1/05 7/1/06
Percent Change in Population for
Maryland’s Jurisdictions, 2000-2006
Calvert
Charles
Cecil
St. Mary's
Frederick
Queen Anne's
Carroll
Harford
Howard
Caroline
Washington
Wicomico
Talbot
Montgomery
PrinceGeorg
Worcester
Baltimore Co
Somerset
Kent
Anne Arundel
Dorchester
Garrett
19.1%
16.5%
15.8%
14.6%
14.2%
14.0%
12.8%
10.4%
9.9%
9.6%
9.0%
8.7%
6.7%
6.6%
5.1%
5.0%
4.4%
4.1%
4.1%
4.0%
3.1%
0.0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Annualized Pop Change for Maryland’s
Jurisdictions, 2000-2003 & 2003-2006
Montgomery
PrinceGeorge
Baltimore
Frederick
Howard
Harford
Charles
AnneArundel
Carroll
Calvert
Cecil
St. Mary's
Washington
Wicomico
Queen Anne's
Caroline
Worcester
Talbot
Somerset
Dorchester
Kent
12,933
9,868
5,311
2,851
6,331
4,172
5,582
3,174
4,911
2,883
4,021
3,248
3,546
2,782
4,552
1,617
3,805
2,332
2,902 1,603
2,128 2,213
1,946 2,100
1,463 2,357
795
1,586
1,105 696
337 584
605 120
214 519
230 93
357
148 102
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
2000-2003
10,000
12,000
2003-2006
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
Annualized Pop Change for Maryland’s
Jurisdictions, 2000-2003 & 2003-2006
Montgomery
PrinceGeorge
Baltimore
Frederick
Howard
Harford
Charles
AnneArundel
Carroll
Calvert
Cecil
St. Mary's
Washington
Wicomico
Queen Anne's
Caroline
Worcester
Talbot
Somerset
Dorchester
Kent
12,933
9,868
5,311
2,851
6,331
4,172
5,582
3,174
4,911
2,883
4,021
3,248
3,546
2,782
4,552
1,617
3,805
2,332
2,902 1,603
2,128 2,213
1,946 2,100
1,463 2,357
795
1,586
1,105 696
337 584
605 120
214 519
230 93
357
148 102
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
2000-2003
10,000
12,000
2003-2006
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
7/
90
-7
/
7/ 91
91
-7
/
7/ 92
92
-7
/
7/ 93
93
-7
7/ /94
94
-7
/
7/ 95
95
-7
/
7/ 96
96
-7
/
7/ 97
97
-7
7/ /98
98
-7
/
7/ 99
99
-7
/
7/ 00
00
-7
/
7/ 01
01
-7
7/ /02
02
-7
/
7/ 03
03
-7
/
7/ 04
04
-7
/
7/ 05
05
-7
/0
6
Population Growth in the Upper & Lower
Eastern Shore Regions, as a Pct of
Statewide Growth, 1991-2006
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Total
Upper
Lower
7/
90
-7
/
7/ 91
91
-7
/
7/ 92
92
-7
/
7/ 93
93
-7
/
7/ 94
94
-7
/
7/ 95
95
-7
/
7/ 96
96
-7
/
7/ 97
97
-7
7/ /98
98
-7
/
7/ 99
99
-7
/
7/ 00
00
-7
/
7/ 01
01
-7
/
7/ 02
02
-7
/
7/ 03
03
-7
/
7/ 04
04
-7
/
7/ 05
05
-7
/0
6
Population Growth in the Eastern Shore
Region & Washington County, as a Pct of
Statewide Growth, 1991-2006
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Net Migration Outflow from Baltimore
County to Pennsylvania, 2000 - 2005
0
-200
-400
-431
-600
-524
-576
-800
-1000
-1,012
-1200
-1,367
-1400
-1600
-1,602
-1800
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Source: Maryland Department of Planning, Planning Data Services, from IRS County-to-County Migration data
Net Migration Outflow From Carroll
County to Pennsylvania, 2000 - 2005
0
-200
-400
-600
-453
-584
-675
-800
-851
-1,000
-1,018
-1,200
-1,400
-1,429
-1,600
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Source: Maryland Department of Planning, Planning Data Services, from IRS County-to-County Migration data
Net Migration Outflow From Frederick
County to Pennsylvania, 2000 - 2005
100
44
0
-18
-93
-100
-200
-300
-400
-401
-500
-537
-600
-700
-800
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
-788
2005
Source: Maryland Department of Planning, Planning Data Services, from IRS County-to-County Migration data
Net Migration Outflow From Frederick
County To Washington Co., 2000 - 2005
0
-200
-400
-600
-800
-1000
-1200
-1400
-1600
-1800
-2000
-424
-398
-889
-1,316
-1,766
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
-1,841
2005
Source: Maryland Department of Planning, Planning Data Services, from IRS County-to-County Migration data
Net Migration Inflow To Frederick Co.
From Montgomery County, 2000 - 2005
4500
4000
4,214
4,247
2004
2005
3,681
3,383
3500
3000
2,528
2500
2000
1,986
1500
1000
500
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
Source: Maryland Department of Planning, Planning Data Services, from IRS County-to-County Migration data
Net Migration Inflow To Washington Co
from Montgomery Co, 2000 - 2005
800
750
700
600
516
500
390
400
300
200
275
177
152
2000
2001
100
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
Source: Maryland Department of Planning, Planning Data Services, from IRS County-to-County Migration data
Net Migration Inflow To Cecil Co from
Harford Co, 2000 - 2005
800
765
704
700
600
520
500
383
400
300
295
333
200
100
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Source: Maryland Department of Planning, Planning Data Services, from IRS County-to-County Migration data
Population Change, 2000-2006, as a Percent
of 1990-2000 Change
Dorchester
St. Mary's
123.3%
Washington
112.3%
Caroline
103.9%
Charles
102.5%
Cecil
92.8%
Queen Anne's
85.9%
Somerset
78.5%
Wicomico
71.3%
Carroll
70.3%
Talbot
69.0%
Harford
62.6%
Calvert
61.4%
Frederick
61.4%
Kent
58.0%
Prince George's
55.7%
Baltimore
53.2%
Montgomery
49.8%
Howard
40.7%
Anne Arundel
31.5%
Worcester
20.2%
Garrett 0.8%
0%
50%
100%
150%
218.5%
200%
250%
Summary
• Slower overall population growth in Maryland in
last three years due to increasing net out migration
• Increasing out migration linked to decreasing
relative economic vitality and higher housing
prices
• Slower growth more apparent in central Maryland
Summary (cont.)
• Outlying areas with relatively lower housing
prices have been the recipient of some of the
displaced growth from central Maryland
• This has led to these outlying areas accounting for
a greater share of statewide growth and in some
cases to have surpassed the previous decade’s total
growth