Transcript Demography…

Global Population Trends:
Shaping The Strategic Future
Nicholas Eberstadt
Henry Wendt Chair in Political Economy
American Enterprise Institute
[email protected]
The Sixth Herzliya Conference
On the Balance of Israel’s National Security
January 21-24, 2006
Herzliya, Israel
Four Strategically Significant
World Population Trends:
• The Global March Into “Sub-Replacement Fertility”
• Sustained Reversals In Health Progress
• Rising Sex Ratios At Birth
• United States ‘Demographic Exceptionalism’
World Total Fertility and Population
Growth Rates:
1975-2025 (projected)
4
Total Fertility Rate
3.5
Grow th Rate
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
1975 1980
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
2010 2015 2020
Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects:
The 2002 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2001 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp, 22 November 2004; 5:48:48 PM.
Total Fertility Rate of Less Than 2.1: U.S. Census Bureau
Projections for the World, 2004
W. Europe
TFR
Andorra
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Gibraltar
Greece
Guernsey
Iceland
Ireland
Italy
Jersey
Liechtenstein
Luxembourg 1.79
Malta
Isle of Man
Monaco
Netherlands 1.66
Norway
Portugal
San Marino 1.32
Spain
1.27
Sweden
Switzerland 1.42
United Kingdom
1.28
1.35
1.64
1.74
1.73
1.85
1.38
1.65
1.32
1.38
1.93
1.87
1.27
1.57
1.51
1.49
1.65
1.76
1.78
1.46
1.66
1.66
E. Europe
TFR
Albania
Bosnia &
Herzegovina 1.71
Bulgaria
Croatia
Czech Republic
Hungary
Macedonia
Poland
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Serbia &
Montenegro
2.05
C.I.S.
TFR
Armenia
Belarus
Georgia
Kazakhstan 1.90
Moldova
Russia
Ukraine
1.31
1.36
1.40
Baltics
TFR
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania
1.39
1.37
1.39
1.18
1.31
1.56
1.38
1.35
1.31
1.23
1.56
1.78
1.26
1.37
Oceania
TFR
Latin America
TFR
Australia
New Zealand
Northern
Mariana Islands
1.76
1.79
1.74
North America
TFR
Bermuda
Canada
Saint Pierre & Miquelon
United States
1.90
1.61
2.05
2.07
Anguilla
Aruba 1.79
Barbados
Brazil 1.94
Cayman Islands
Chile
Cuba
Dominica
Guadeloupe
Guyana
Jamaica
Martinique
Montserrat
Netherlands Antilles
Puerto Rico
Saint Vincent & the
Grenadines
Trinidad & Tobago
British Virgin Islands
Uruguay
Africa
TFR
Algeria
Mauritius
Saint Helena
Seychelles
Tunisia
2.04
1.97
1.54
1.77
1.79
Asia
1.33
TFR
Burma
China
1.69
Cyprus
Hong Kong S.A.R
Iran
Japan
1.38
Lebanon
Macau S.A.R.
Singapore
South Korea
Sri Lanka
Taiwan
Thailand
Turkey
Vietnam
2.08
1.85
0.91
1.88
1.95
0.98
1.04
1.25
1.88
1.57
1.89
1.98
1.97
1.65
1.90
2.06
1.66
1.98
1.91
2.06
1.98
1.79
1.79
2.02
1.91
1.90
1.77
1.72
1.96
1.25
1.17
Source: U.S. Census Bureau International Database
Available online at http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbnew.html, accessed 11/18/04
Own-children estimates of total fertility
rates for Iran: 1972-2000
Source: Figures calculated by the author using the own-children method applied to the 1986 and 1996 censuses, and the 2000 Iran Demographic and Health
Survey. Figure Selected from “Recent changes and the future of fertility in Iran,” Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi, Department of Economic and Social
Affairs, Population Division, United Nations.
Population Structure:
China, 2000 vs. 2025 (projected)
90-94
2025
2000
2025
2000
75-79
60-64
45-49
30-34
15-19
0-4
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision and World
Urbanization Prospects: The 2001 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp, 25 April 2003; 2:57:12 PM.
China and the United States:
Median Age, 1970-2025
38
33
China
28
U.S.
23
20
25
20
20
20
15
20
10
20
05
20
00
19
95
19
90
19
85
19
80
19
75
19
70
18
Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Statistics Division, World Population
Prospects: The 2002 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2001 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp, 24 April 2003, 2:36:38 PM.
Per Capita GDP vs. Percent Population Ages 65+:
Russia, Europe, United States, and China 1950-2000
30,000
Russia 1995/2000
Percentage 65+:
China, 2025
(projected)
Europe
Per Capita GDP
(1990 International Geary-Khamis Dollars)
United States
China
Japan
20,000
Percentage 65+:
Russia, 2025
(projected)
10,000
0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Percentage of Population 65+
Note: Europe data for 13 countries: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, U.K.
Sources: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision and
World Urbanization Prospects: T http://esa.un.org/unpp, 25 April 2003; Maddison, Angus. The World Economy: Historical Statistics. (Development Centre Studies,
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development: Paris, 2003), Tables 2c, 3c and 7c;
U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Database, available online at http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbacc.html, accessed 8/5/04.
Coverage and Actuarial Balances of Current Public
Pension System: USA, Japan, China (percent)
Coverage
Net Present Value
Unfunded Liabilities
vs. GDP
USA 2004
871
32
Japan 2001
c. 1002
60-703
China 2003
c.16
125-150
Notes: 1. Proportion of fully insured persons 20+ in OASDI, 2003. 2. Mandatory participation of persons 20+ in basic plan. 3. Estimates for burden post-2000 round of reforms.
Sources: China: Loraine A. West and Daniel Goodkind, “Population Aging and Social Safety Nets in China: Factors and Trends Affecting Policy Trade-Offs.” U.S. Census Bureau, International Programs Center,
April 2003 (unpublished paper); Japan: Hamid Faruqee and Martin Muehleiser, “Population Aging in Japan: Demographic and Fiscal Sustainability,” IMF Working Paper WP/01/40, April 2001,
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2001/wp0140.pdf USA: Derived from U.S. Social Security Administration, Annual Statistical Supplement 2003 (March 2004), Table 4.c5,
Percentage of Age-60 Chinese Women with No Born Sons by
Year of Her 60th Birthday: Illustrative Calculation
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1989- 1991- 1996- 2001- 2006- 2011- 20161990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
2025
Notes: Calculations are illustrative, based upon simplifying assumptions: 1. Reported parity distributions in 1990 census are accurate; 2. SRB as in previous graphic; 3.
SRB not parity-specific; 4. Childbearing completed by age 35 for the 2025 cohort of 60-year old women; 5) Posits the following distribution of childbearing for the
2025 cohort of 60-year-old women: no children, 3%; one child, 25%; two children, 65%; three or more children, 7%.
Sources:Derived from Feeney et. al. 1993, op cit; China National Bureau of Statistics 2002, op cit.
Countries facing long-term decline in life expectancy at birth
(1990 vs. 2010): U.S. Census Bureau Current Projections
Sub-Saharan Africa
1990
Angola
Benin
Botswana
Burkina Faso
Cameroon
Central African Rep.
Congo
Djibouti
Eritrea
Ethiopia
Gabon
Ghana
Kenya
Lesotho
Malawi
Mozambique
Namibia
So. Africa
Swaziland
Tanzania
Togo
Zambia
Zimbabwe
66.8
50.1
48.5
63.2
65.1
56.6
60.6
36.7
49.1
34.1
46.8
47.9
41.0
52.6
43.8
51.8
45.6
58.1
56.3
60.3
44.5
43.3
45.3
63.7
48.8
33.0
50.0
50.7
44.3
34.6
2010
35.0
47.9
43.5
47.0
43.4
48.9
40.0
52.9
55.6
53.5
36.5
36.9
38.5
43.3
Latin America & Caribbean
1990
Bahamas
Barbados
Dominican Rep.
Grenada
Honduras
Panama
Trinidad & Tobago
41.2
65.8
71.2
66.7
66.3
72.1
64.5
Commonwealth of Independent States
1990
2010
Azerbaijan
Belarus
Russia
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
Ukraine
Uzbekistan
Oceania
47.2
67.5
67.2
73.1
70.0
66.9
62.2
72.9
69.5
2010
Nauru
68.4
66.0
70.9
68.5
67.2
64.7
69.7
67.4
70.6
67.0
66.5
63.7
68.5
66.2
1990
2010
66.7
64.6
Source: U.S. Census Bureau International Database
Available online at http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbnew.html, accessed 11/18/04
Male Death Rates:
France in World War II vs. Zimbabwe today
Deaths per 1,000 Males
35
France 1939
France 1944
30
Zimbabwe 1986
Zimbabwe 1997
25
20
15
10
5
0
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
Ages
Sources:http://gfeeney.com/pubs/2001-aids-zimbabwe/table1.xls accessed June 7, 2004.
htttp://www.demog.berkeley.edu/wilmoth/mortality/France/LifeTables/fmper.lt.5x1.new accessed June 7, 2004.
45-49
50-54
Projected population structure with and
without the AIDS epidemic, Botswana, 2020
Age in years
Projected population
structure in 2020
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Deficits due to AIDS
Males
140
120
100
80
Females
60
40
20
0
20
Population (thousands)
Source: US Census Bureau, World Population Profile 2000
40
60
80
100
120
140
Projected Total Population:
Russia, 2000-2025
150000
Total Population (Thousands)
145000
140000
135000
130000
125000
120000
2000
UN Projections
Census Projections
2005
2010
2015
Year
Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Data Base
United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2002
2020
2025
Births, Deaths, and Natural Increase in
Russian Population: 1960-2003
3000000
2500000
2000000
Population
1500000
1000000
500000
0
-500000
Births
Deaths
Natural Increase
-1000000
1960
1969
1974
1979
1984
1989
1994
1999
Year
Source: The Demographic Yearbook of Russia: 2002 (State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics, Moscow, 2002), Table
2.1
Source for 2002 figures: Goskomstat, as reported by ITAR-TASS, Feb 21, 2003
Life Expectancy at Birth
1958-59, 1961-62, 1963-64, 1965-2003
Life Expectancy at Birth
(years)
75
70
65
60
Female
Male
19
58
19 -59
61
19 62
63
19 -64
65
19 66
66
19 -67
67
19 68
68
19 69
69
19 -70
70
19 71
71
19 -72
72
19 -73
73
19 -74
74
19 75
75
19 -76
76
19 77
77
19 -78
78
19 79
79
19 -80
80
19 -81
81
19 82
82
19 -83
83
19 -84
84
19 -85
85
19 86
86
-87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
55
Year
Sources: The Demographic Yearbook of Russia: 2002 Statistical Handbook, State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics (Goskomstat of
Russia), Moscow, 2003, Table 2.6; The Demographic Yearbook of Russia: 1993 Statistical Handbook, State Committee of the Russian Federation on
Statistics (Goskomstat of Russia), Moscow, 1994, Table 2.5
"More Aged Than Their Years":
Mortality At Age 30 for Men In Selected Post-Socalist Countries
Compared With The Dutch Male Mortality Schedule, c. 2003
12
10
Dutch male survival schedule
Bulgarian male at age 30
8
Czech Republic male at age 30
East German male at age 30
6
Hungarian male at age 30
4
Latvian male at age 30
Lithuanian male at age 30
2
Russian male at age 30
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
4
41 1
.5
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
5
51 1
.5
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
0
Age
"Positive Health Momentum":
Male Mortality in Japan by birth cohort 1920-1969
100
1920
10
1930
1940
1950
1960
1
0.1
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
1969
Age
"Negative Health Momentum":
Male Mortality in Russia by birth cohorts 1920-1970
100
1920
10
1930
1940
1950
1960
1
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
0
1970
Ages
Health Equals Wealth:
Worldwide LE vs. PPP Per Capita GDP, 2003
100000
10000
1000
y = 46.101e0.0723x
2
R = 0.6519
100
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
China: Sex Ratio at Birth by Province, 2000
140
Sex Ratio at Birth
(Males per 100 Females)
130
120
110
100
Q
Ti
b
ui et
ng
G ha
ui i
zh
Xi ou
H nj
ei i a
lo ng
ng
j ia
n
In
N
ne in g
r M gx
o n ia
go
li a
J
Yu ili n
nn
Li an
ao
ni
n
Sh g
an
Ti xi
a
Zh nj in
e
Sh ji an
an g
do
n
Be g
Sh i ji n
a g
C ng
ho ha
ng i
q
Si ing
ch
ua
H n
eb
G ei
an
Ji su
an
gs
u
Fu
Sh ji an
aa
n
H xi
un
an
H
u
G bei
ua
ng
H xi
en
an
An
hu
H
G ai i
ua na
ng n
do
Ji ng
an
gx
i
90
Province
Source: Tabulation on the 2000 Population Census of the People's Republic of China, Vols. I & III, Population Census Office under the State Council &
Department of Population, Science, and Technology Statistics, National Bureau of Statistics of China (China Statistics Press: Hong Kong, 2001), Table 6.1.
China: Sex Ratio (Children Ages 1-4) vs.
Female Illiteracy Rate by Province, 2000
(males per 100 females)
Sex Ratio, Children Ages 1-4
140
130
120
110
100
90
0
10
20
30
40
Female Illiteracy Rate (percent)
50
60
70
Sex Ratio
Sex Ratio at Birth vs. GDP per Capita: China,
1953-1999
122
120
118
116
114
112
110
108
106
104
GDP vs. SR 0-4
GDP vs. SRB
0
500
1000
1500
2000
GDP per Capita
2500
3000
3500
State
INDIA: Sex Ratio Among Children Under Age 7
By State, 2001
Sikkim
Chhatisgarh
Meghalaya
Nagaland
Tripura
Lakshadw eep
Dadra & Nagar Haveli
Mizoram
Jharkhand
Andaman & Nicobar
Assam
Andhra Pradesh
West Bengal
Kerala
Arunachal Pradesh
Manipur
Pondicherry
Orissa
Karnataka
Tamil Nadu
Bihar
Jammu & Kashmir
Goa
Madhya Pradesh
Daman & Diu
Maharashtra
Uttar Pradesh
Rajasthan
Uttaranchal
Himachal Pradesh
Gujarat
Delhi
Chandigargh
Haryana
Punjab
100
105
110
115
120
125
Sex Ratio Among Children Under Age 7 (Males per 100 Females)
130
Population Structure:
EU 15, 2000 vs. 2025 (projected)
80+
70- 74
Male
Female
60- 64
50- 54
40- 44
2025
30- 34
2000
20- 24
10- 14
0- 4
20000000
15000000
10000000
5000000
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census International Database, available online at http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbacc.html, accessed 9/23/04.
Population Structure:
USA, 2000 vs. 2025 (projected)
80+
70- 74
60- 64
Male
Female
50- 54
2025
40- 44
2000
30- 34
20- 24
10- 14
0- 4
15000000
10000000
5000000
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census International Database, available online at http://w w w .census.gov/ipc/w w w /idbacc.html,
accessed 9/23/04.
Total Fertility Rate:
United States vs. Europe
3
Total Fertility Rate
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
US TFRs 2000
Eur TFRs 2000
EU TFRs 2000
Russia
Sources: Institut National d'etudes demographiques, "Population en chiffres," http://www.ined.fr/population-en-chiffres/pays-developpes/index.html, accessed
8/4/04; National Vital Statistics Report: Vol 52, No. 19 May 10, 2004.
US “Demographic Exceptionalism”:
TFRs, Canada vs. USA, 1975-2001
2.2
2
1.8
1.6
1.4
Quebec
Canada
U.S.
1.2
1
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
Source: Statistics Canada Current Demographic Analysis “Fertility in Canada” 1984; Demographic Situation 1998-1999. U.S. National Vital Statistics Report Vol. 51 No.2
Dec. 2002. U.S. White includes Hispanics.
Note: Figure selected from Barbara Boyle Torrey’s PowerPoint presentation “A Demographic Divergence? Canada and the United States” (no date)
American Exceptionalism: Outlier Attitudes,
Part I
American Exceptionalism: Outlier Attitudes,
Part II
American Exceptionalism: Outlier Attitudes,
Part III
Estimated and Projected Proportion of World Population:
United States, Western Europe, and Russia, 1950-2050
10%
United States
Western Europe
Russia
8%
6%
4%
2%
Year
20
50
20
45
20
40
20
35
20
30
20
25
20
20
20
15
20
10
20
05
20
00
19
95
19
90
19
85
19
80
19
75
19
70
19
65
19
60
19
55
0%
19
50
Proportion of World Population (Percent)
12%