Transcript Document

The Outlook for Energy:
A View to 2040
Muhammad Nurdin
Vice President - Planning and Commercial
ExxonMobil Indonesia
UGM, December 20, 2014
This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes
in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future
Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and
analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission
of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
Energy Outlook Development
Motor Gasoline
Asphalt
Residential
Chemicals
Solar
100
15 demand
20 fuel
Trade
countries
sectors
Distillate
Natural Gas Commercial
Asphalt
Wind
Naphtha
Nuclear Lt. Transportation
Lubricants
Bio-mogas
Jet Fuel
Hvy. Transportation
Biomass/Other
Flaring
Bio-distillate
Fuel Oil
Coal
Aviation
types
Flows
Energy Industry
Electricity
LPG
Lubes
Technology
&Agriculture
Hydro
Marine
Market Heat
Geothermal Policy
Rail
Heavy Industry
Power Generation
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Global Progress Drives Demand
Population
GDP
Energy Demand
Billion
Trillion 2005$
Quadrillion BTUs
Average Growth / Yr.
2010 – 2040
0.8%
Average Growth / Yr.
2010 – 2040
2.8%
Average Growth / Yr.
2010 – 2040
1.0%
Energy Saved
~500
Non OECD
OECD
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Key Growth Countries (2040)
Leading Economic Growth 2010 to 2040
2040 Energy Demand
Percent Share
QUADS
60+
Countries
Thailand
Other
25%
China
~40%
Turkey
Egypt
South Africa
Nigeria
India
~15%
Key
Growth
20%
Mexico
Iran
10
Countries
Saudi
Arabia
Indonesia
Brazil
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Southeast Asia Energy Trends
Population
GDP
Energy Demand
Billion
Trillion 2005$
Quadrillion BTUs
Average Growth / Yr.
2010 – 2040
0.9%
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Average Growth / Yr.
2010 – 2040
4.2%
Average Growth / Yr.
2010 – 2040
2.2%
Southeast Asia Energy Demand by Country
By Fuel
By Country
Quadrillion BTUs
Quadrillion BTUs
Other Renewables
Rest of Southeast Asia
Philippines
Biomass
Singapore
Nuclear
Coal
Vietnam
Malaysia
Gas
Oil
Thailand
Indonesia
Residential/Commercial
Semanggi - Jakarta
Residential/Commercial Outlook
By Sector
By Region
By Fuel
Quadrillion BTUs
Quadrillion BTUs
Quadrillion BTUs
Other
Commercial
Rest of World
Electricity
Africa
India
Residential
China
Biomass
Coal
OECD
Gas
Oil
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
S.E. Asia Residential/Commercial Demand
By Sector
By Fuel
Quadrillion BTUs
Quadrillion BTUs
Commercial
Electricity
Other Renewables
Biomass
Residential
Coal
Gas
Oil
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Industrial
Southeast Asia Industrial Demand
By Sector
By Fuel
Quadrillion BTUs
Quadrillion BTUs
Chemicals
Electricity
Biomass
Coal
Heavy Industry
Gas
Energy Industry
Other
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Oil
Transportation
Alun-alun Selatan
Transportation Demand
Sector Demand
Commercial Transportation by Region - 2040
2010
MBDOE
MBDOE
Rail
Marine
Aviation
Heavy Duty
2010
Light Duty
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
S.E. Asia Transportation Demand & Fleet Shift
Transportation
Light Duty Vehicle Fleet
MBDOE
Million Cars
Rail
Marine
Aviation
Heavy Duty
Light Duty
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Electricity Generation
Southeast Asia Electricity Demand
Electricity Demand
Electricity Generation Fuel Consumption
Thousand Terawatt Hour
Quadrillion BTUs
Other Renewables
Wind & Solar
Biomass
Nuclear
Coal
Gas
Oil
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Emissions
Semanggi - Jakarta
CO2 Emissions Plateau
Energy-Related CO2 Emissions by Region
Emissions per Capita
Billion Tonnes
Tonnes / Person
2010
Asia Pacific
2040
Middle East
Africa
Latin America
Russia/Caspian
Europe
North America
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Supply
Liquids Supply
Liquid Supply by Type
Crude and Condensate Resource*
MBDOE
Trillion barrels of oil
Biofuels
Oil Sands
Tight Oil
Deepwater
Other
Remaining
Resource
NGLs
Conventional
Crude & Condensate
Cumulative
Production
through 2040
* Source: IEA
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Gas Resources Abundant; Supply Diversifies
Remaining Recoverable Resource*
Gas Production by Region
Gas Production by Type
Thousand TCF
BCFD
BCFD
ROW
Africa
Africa
AP
Middle East
NA
Unconventional
Middle East
Unconventional
Asia Pacific
Asia Pacific
Russia/
Caspian
Russia/
Caspian
Europe
Conventional
Europe
Latin America
Latin America
North America
* Source: IEA
2012
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
North America
Conventional
Energy Use Evolves Over Time
Global Mix of Fuels
Quadrillion BTUs
Other Renewables
Nuclear
Hydro
Gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass
1800
1850
Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (1800-1960)
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
1900
1950
2000
2040
Positioned to Take on the Challenges
History
Workforce
Corporate
Citizenship
Technology
Business
Strength
Technology and Innovations
Unconventional Gas
Advanced Drilling —
Surpassing 7 Miles Horizontally
Arctic
Oil Sands
LNG tanker
Global Organization
115 Years of Presence in Indonesia
Aceh Production Operations
Cepu Block
Banyu Urip Project Status
• Banyu Urip is being built by 10,000 Indonesian
workers, who make up 95 percent of the overall
workforce
• Initial production of oil with a capacity of up to 40,000
barrels per day
• The project is expected to reach daily production
capacity of 165,000 barrels in 2015.
• Banyu Urip will continue to ramp up production until
it reaches full-field capacity in 2015.
Three onshore gas fields. Divided in two Arun
PSCs, South Lhoksukon (SLS) A and D, as well
as one offshore gas field, the North Sumatra
Offshore (NSO) A.
Gas produced from fields is sent to a facility
owned by PT Arun NGL then managed to become
LNG. Until now, PT Arun has supplied more than
4000 cargoes of LNG to Pertamina for sale to
consumers in Korea and Japan.
Conclusions
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy