Transcript Agile Business Conference 2005 Template

Context Adaptive Agility
Managing Complexity and Uncertainty
Todd Little
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The Agile Project Leadership Network Declaration
of Interdependence (www.apln.org)
 We increase return on investment by making
continuous flow of value our focus.
 We deliver reliable results by engaging
customers in frequent interactions and
shared ownership.
 We expect uncertainty and manage for it
through iterations, anticipation and
adaptation.
 We unleash creativity and innovation by
recognizing that individuals are the ultimate
source of value, and creating an
environment where they can make a
difference.
 We boost performance through group
accountability for results and shared
responsibility for team effectiveness.
 We improve effectiveness and reliability
through situationally specific strategies,
processes and practices.
David Anderson, Sanjiv Augustine, Christopher Avery, Alistair Cockburn, Mike Cohn,
Doug DeCarlo, Donna Fitzgerald, Jim Highsmith, Ole Jepsen, Lowell Lindstrom, Todd
Little, Kent McDonald, Pollyanna Pixton, Preston Smith and Robert Wysocki
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Declaration of Independence from Bureaucratic Project
Management
When in the Course of project events it becomes necessary for
Project Teams to dissolve the political bureaucracies which have
burdened them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires
that they should declare the causes which impel them to the
separation.
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all projects are not
created equal, that they are endowed by their creation with uncertain
and complex characteristics. That project teams are most effective
when they value Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.
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Penal Management Institute
Now that I am a Penal
Management Professional I
can show them how to
improve these Convicts’
Maturity Model
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Hurricane Rita
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Landmark sells shrink wrap software for Oil and
Gas Exploration and Production
 Users are
Geoscientists and
Engineers
 Subsidiary of
Halliburton Energy
Services
Reservoir /
Fluid data
Production data
Seismic data
 Integrated suite of
~60 Products
 ~50 Million lines of
code
Structural /
Stratigraphic data
Velocity data
Common Model
Representation
Well data
 Some products 20+
years old
 80+% of project team
stays on same
product
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We have the challenge of integrating software
developed in Houston, Austin, Denver and Calgary
Plus Islamabad
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Our team was tasked with understanding and
improving our software development process
Maximize our Value Delivery
Scaling to project conditions
Manage Uncertainty and Complexity
Organizational commonality without being overly
prescriptive
Core processes
Adaptive processes
What is “barely sufficient?”
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We were influenced by a number of Agile prophets
Highsmith
Adaptive Software Development
Cockburn
Crystal Methods
Boehm and Turner
Balancing Agility and Discipline
Microsoft Solutions Framework (MSF)
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Manifesto for Agile Software Development
We are uncovering better ways of developing software
by doing it and helping others do it. Through this work
we have come to value:




Individuals and interactions over processes and tools
Working software over comprehensive documentation
Customer collaboration over contract negotiation
Responding to change over following a plan
That is, while there is value in the items on the right, we
value the items on the left more.
Kent Beck, Mike Beedle, Arie van Bennekum, Alistair Cockburn, Ward Cunningham, Martin
Fowler, James Grenning, Jim Highsmith, Andrew Hunt, Ron Jeffries, Jon Kern, Brian Marick,
Robert C. Martin, Steve Mellor, Ken Schwaber, Jeff Sutherland, Dave Thomas
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We studied our project portfolio and identified
several project and team attributes
 Project Complexity
Team size
Mission criticality
Team location
Team capacity
Domain knowledge gaps
Dependencies
 Uncertainty
Market Uncertainty
Technical Uncertainty
Project Duration
Dependents
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We scored the Complexity Attributes on a scale
from 1 to 10
Attribute
1
10
Team Size
1
100
Mission Critical
Speculative
Safety Critical with
significant exposure
Team Location
Same Room
Multi-site, World Wide
Team Capacity
Established Team of experts
New team of mostly
novices
Domain knowledge gaps
Developers know the
domain as well as expert
users
Developers have no idea
about the domain
Dependencies
No dependencies
Tight Integration with
several projects
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And we scored the Uncertainty Attributes
Attribute
1
10
Market Uncertainty
Known deliverable, possibly
defined contractual obligation
New market that is
unknown and untested
Technical Uncertainty
Enhancements to existing
architecture
New technology, new
architecture. May be
some "R"
Project Duration
1-4 week
24 months
Dependents/ Scope
Flexibility
Well defined contractual
obligations or Infrastructure
Independent
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We cross plotted the results and divided the chart
into four quadrants
RAPID Quadrant Assessment
12.0
Uncertainty
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
Project Complexity
Uncertainty  2 
log1 0 yi
Complexity 2
log1 0 xi
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This looked a lot like the Boston Matrix
Boston Matrix
Market Growth
High
Low
???
Question
Marks
Stars
Cash Cows
Dog
s
Low
Market Share
High
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So we named it the Houston Matrix and gave animal
names to the quadrants
RAPID Quadrant Assessment
12.0
Uncertainty
10.0
Colts
8.0
6.0
Simple, young projects.
Need agility
Tight Teams
Agility to handle uncertainty
Process definition to cope with
complexity
Bulls
Skunks
Cows
4.0
laissez faire
2.0
Dogs
Complex, mature market
Need defined interfaces
0.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
Project Complexity
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We looked at an overall process flow and how it
would be adaptable.
Iterations
Inputs
Outputs
Adaptive Activities
Preconditions
Postconditions
•Released
Software
CORE Activities
Project
Sanction
RTM
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We Identified a set of Core Processes for all
projects to use
Aggregate Product Plan
A/B/C List
Quality Agreement
Continuous Integration
Expert User Involvement
Project Dashboard
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The Aggregate Product Plan sets the high level
vision and expectations
Project: OpenWells Davenport
Product: OpenWells
Project Code: 010265
Target Date: 3/30/2004
Version: 2003.11.0.0
Release Date: 3/31/2004
Product Manager: Marcus Ridgway
SDD: David Field
Vision:
Version 2.0 of the new Well Operations reporting and data analysis
application. Will bring powerful new query, graphing and reporting
capabilities. Comprehensive D&WS input data and output reports will be
supported including integration to Production suite.
Platforms:
Windows 2000 /Oracle 8.1.7
Windows XP / Oracle 9i
Windows 2000 & XP /MSDE
Features:
18 additional reports
Addtnl apps - Data Anlyzr, NG Profile, Autoprint
Extended Rig Equipment support
Knowledge Management - Technical limit drilling,
lessons learned, non-productive time, and
equipment failures
Application enhancements (spreadsheet support and
tailored well services tab and others)
Strategic Fit:
Integration
Workflow ( Prototype, plan, actual)
Top quartile technology
Target Markets:
Existing DIMS customers
US Independents
NOCs
Government and regulatory organizations
Companies requiring integrated offering
w/decent wellbore schematic requirements
Service companies
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The A/B/C List sets proper expectations
A
MUST be completed in order to ship the product.
B
SHOULD be completed in order to ship the product.
C
MAY be completed prior to shipping the product if
time allows.
Only “A” features may be committed to customers.
“A” features must fit in a p90 confidence schedule. No more
than 50% of the planned effort can be allocated to “A” items
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A/B/C List
Backlog Plan
Typical Delivery
50%
100%
B
A
50% 25% 25%
C
D
C
B
A
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A/B/C List
Oxbridge - P&E Systems Requirements
ARIES
#
1
2
Rank Name
A Honor common login
A
Certify against old data model
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B
User group requests
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B
Fill RMS functionality gaps
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C
Fill RMS functionality gaps
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C
User group requests
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C
User group requests
Notes/Purpose/Description
Recognize and support the EDM common login information
Formally test the new ARIES product against the old ARIES database. If
successful, this will ease the transition by giving customers flexibility and
enabling them to easily evaluate acquisition databases
Improve decline calculations to a reserve limit when using hyp/exp
switchover
Provide multi-level approval and freeze process. Allowing multiple sets of
reserve values.
Current reconciliation is by EIA or SEC change codes. Need ability for more
detail and or user defined arrangements.
START date with option for a variable DELAY/SHIFT period (number of
months) including use with ENDDATE
Expand range in which we solve for an unknown decline rate in a hyperbolic
equation
Estimates
P10 P50 P90 T-Shirt
5
10 20 M
10
20
40
L
15
30
60
L
30
60
120 XL
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70
140 XL
5
10
20
M
5
10
20
M
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We use a Quality Agreement similar to Thomsett
Attribute
“A”
“B”
Very Important
Important
X
Completeness of Functionality
Completeness of Testing
X
Reliability
X
X
Performance
Installation
X
X
Usability
Integration
X
X
On Line Help
Training
“C”
Not Very
Important
X
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Simple, Certain projects are like Dogs
They can be trained to be well behaved.
Just the Core practices
Laissez Faire…Similar to Crystal Clear
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Simple, Uncertain projects are like Colts
Young projects with lots of unfettered energy.
Landmark has had success with XP in this
quadrant
Short iterations
Daily stand-up meetings
Automated unit tests
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Complex, Certain projects are like Cows
Often are corporate “Cash Cows”
More rigorous requirements management; i.e. use
a requirements tool.
Requires the generation of useful documentation
for interface definitions
Projects broken up into subprojects and
coordinated by a team of leaders or a Scrum of
Scrums.
Project plans with dependency and critical path
identification
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Complex, Uncertain projects are like
Bulls
Large projects, hard to control.
Need agility to steer through the uncertainty, and
some rigor to manage the complexity.
A careful union of the Colt and the Cow
Requires the best Project Managers
Warning signs
Project Managers sometimes act as clowns to provide
diversion.
High BS factor
Appears that they just want to have their way with the
Cows.
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Don’t throw novice project managers
at a bull project
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Brooks’ law in action: throw a
developer at a late bull project
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Complexity is like Amplitude and Uncertainty is like
Frequency
Bull
Cow
Colt
Dog
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Product Innovation Flow
Hot Items
Product
Backlog
Release
Backlog
A
Items
Items
Idea Filter
Sales
Adaptive Activities
Services
RTM
B&C
Project Sanction
Iteration
Backlog
Newly Discovered
Flexible Scope
Backlog
Customer
Support
CORE Activities
Most Items for consideration in next release
Backlog
Burnup
B/C/D
A
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Nickoliasen Model for Idea Filter
(Executive Summit ADC 2004)
High
Market
Differentiating
Partner
Or convert
To Mission Critical
Who Cares?
Focus and
Allocate
Resources
Achieve
Parity
Low
Low
Mission Critical
High
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Products Tend to follow a Lifecycle path
Product Lifecycle
Uncertainty
High
C
Colts
A
Low
Low
Bulls
Skunks
B
Dog
s
Complexity
Cows
High
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An Example Lifecycle path
Product Lifecycle
Uncertainty
High
2003
2004
Low
Low
Complexity
High
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Portfolio Management and Dealing with Darwin
High
Deploy
Offload
Manage
Market
Differentiating
Invent
Low
Low
Mission Critical
High
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Portfolio Management and Dealing with Darwin
High
Embrace
Change
Eliminate
Change
Control
Change
Market
Differentiating
Create
Change
Low
Low
Mission Critical
High
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Portfolio Management and Dealing with Darwin
High
Agile
Outsource
Structured
Market
Differentiating
Ad Hoc
Low
Low
Mission Critical
High
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Project Complexity and Uncertainty influence how
to scale our agile process
 One size doesn’t fit all
 The assessment tool is a guide
 Landmark’s portfolio balance
10% Bulls
10% Cows
20% Colts
60% Dogs
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Don’t mistreat your cows
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Don’t over stereotype:
e.g. Not all dogs are the same
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Agile Steering
Each iteration provides new information and takes us closer to the product
vision. Uncertainty remains, and the shape of the cone is proportional.
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