Transcript Slide 1

Context Driven Agile Leadership
Managing Complexity and Uncertainty
Todd Little
Sr. Development Manager
Are you in the right place?
Hopefully the Matrices are
funny enough
Glad to have you!
Sorry, just content
OK. You don’t have to
laugh
Hate
Geek Humor
Enjoy
It Depends
Hate
2x2 Matrices
Enjoy
Managing the Coming Storm
Inside the Tornado
Project Kickoff
When will we get the requirements?
All in good time, my little pretty, all in good time
But I guess it doesn't matter anyway
Just give me your estimates by this afternoon
Team Unity
Not so fast! Not so fast! ... I'll have to give the matter a little
thought. Go away and come back tomorrow
No, we need something today!
Ok then, it will take 2 years.
No, we need it sooner.
Doesn't anybody believe me?
I already promised the customer it will be out in 6 months
You're a very bad man!
We’re not in Kansas Anymore
Developer Hero
I may not come out alive, but I'm goin' in there!
Reorg
The Great and Powerful Oz has got matters well in hand.
My! People come and go so quickly here!
Testing
"Hee hee hee ha ha! Going so soon? I wouldn't
hear of it! Why, my little party's just beginning!
Hurricane Rita
Agile Steering
Each iteration provides new information and takes us closer to the product
vision. Uncertainty remains, and the shape of the cone is proportional.
Landmark sells shrink wrap software for
Oil and Gas Exploration and Production
• Users are
Geoscientists and
Engineers
• Subsidiary of
Halliburton Energy
Services
• Integrated suite of
~60 Products
• ~50 Million lines of
code
• Some products 20+
years old
• 80+% of project
team stays on
same product
Reservoir /
Fluid data
Production data
Seismic data
Structural /
Stratigraphic data
Velocity data
Common Model
Representation
Well data
We have the challenge of integrating software
developed in Houston, Austin, Denver and Calgary
Plus Islamabad
Landmark wanted to understand and improve
our software development process
•
•
•
•
Maximize our Value Delivery
Scaling to project conditions
Manage Uncertainty and Complexity
Organizational commonality without being
overly prescriptive
– Core processes
– Adaptive processes
– What is “barely sufficient?”
We were influenced by a number of
Agile prophets
• Highsmith
– Adaptive Software Development
• Cockburn
– Crystal Methods
• Boehm and Turner
– Balancing Agility and Discipline
Agile Manifesto
We are uncovering better ways of developing software
by doing it and helping others do it. Through this work
we have come to value:
–
–
–
–
Individuals and interactions over processes and tools
Working software over comprehensive documentation
Customer collaboration over contract negotiation
Responding to change over following a plan
That is, while there is value in the items on the right, we
value the items on the left more.
Kent Beck, Mike Beedle, Arie van Bennekum, Alistair Cockburn, Ward Cunningham,
Martin Fowler, James Grenning, Jim Highsmith, Andrew Hunt, Ron Jeffries, Jon Kern,
Brian Marick, Robert C. Martin, Steve Mellor, Ken Schwaber, Jeff Sutherland, Dave
Thomas
(defects cause loss of...)
Criticality
Cockburn’s Crystal Methodology according to
(project size, system criticality, team priorities)
. . . Prioritized for Legal Liability
Prioritized for Productivity & Tolerance
Life
(L)
L6
L20
L40
L100
L200
L500
L1000
Essential
money
(E)
E6
E20
E40
E100
E200
E500
E1000
Discretionary
money
D6
(D)
D20
D40
D100
D200
D500
D1000
C20
C40
C100
C200
C500
C1000
Comfort
(C)
C6
1-6
- 20
- 40
- 100
- 200
- 500 - 1,000
Number of people involved +20%
Crystal family of Agile methodologies
Prioritized for Productivity & Tolerance
Common philosophy:
Strong on communications,
Light on deliverables.
"Sw dev't is a cooperative game,
which uses markers
that remind and incite.”
L6
L20
L40
L80
E6
E20
E40
E80
D6
D20
D40
D80
C6
C20
C40
C80
Orange
Clear Yellow
Red
Principles:
Fewer intermediate products are needed with :
* Short, rich, informal communications paths
* Frequent delivery.
* Use people's natural strengths (talking, looking around)
beware natural weaknesses (careless, low on discipline)
(defects cause loss of...)
Criticality
Cockburn’s Crystal Methodology according to
(project size, system criticality, team priorities)
. . . Prioritized for Legal Liability
Prioritized for Productivity & Tolerance
Life
(L)
L6
L20
L40
L100
L200
L500
L1000
Essential
money
(E)
E6
E20
E40
E100
E200
E500
E1000
Agile
D20
Sweet
Spot
D40
D100
D200
D500
D1000
C20
C40
C100
C200
C500
C1000
Discretionary
money
D6
(D)
Comfort
(C)
C6
1-6
- 20
- 40
- 100
- 200
- 500 - 1,000
Number of people involved +20%
Balancing Agility and Discipline
Boehm and Turner
Personnel
(% Level 1B) (% Level 2&3)
Criticality
(Loss due to impact of defects)
Many
Lives
Single
Life
40
15
30
20
20
25
10
30
0
35
Essential
Discretionary
Funds
Comfort
Funds
Dynamism
(% Requirements-change/month)
5
10
1
30
50
Agil
3
e
90
10
70
Disc
ip
30
line
d
50
100
30
300
Size
(# of personnel)
10
Culture
(% thriving on chaos vs. order)
Balancing Agility and Discipline
Boehm and Turner
Personnel
(% Level 1B) (% Level 2&3)
Criticality
(Loss due to impact of defects)
Many
Lives
Single
Life
40
15
30
20
20
25
10
30
0
35
Essential
Discretionary
Funds
Comfort
Funds
Dynamism
(% Requirements-change/month)
10
5
1
30
50
3
90
10
70
30
50
100
30
300
Size
(# of personnel)
10
Culture
(% thriving on chaos vs. order)
Boehm and Turner Observations
on Balancing
•
•
•
•
Neither agile nor plandriven methods provide
a silver bullet
Agile and plan-driven
methods have home
grounds where each
clearly dominates
Future developments
will need both agility
and discipline
Some balanced
methods are emerging
• It is better to build your
method up than to
tailor it down
• Methods are important,
but potential silver
bullets are more likely
to be found in areas
dealing with
–
–
–
–
People
Values
Communications
Expectations
management
Agile Manifesto 5 Years Later:
Dealing with the Right
• Processes and tools that support agility and
individuals and interactions (e.g. wikis,
collaboration environments, etc.)
• Documentation that leads to working software. A
focus on documentation as a consumable rather
than as a deliverable.
• Contracts that are written in a manner consistent
with collaboration and agile delivery
• Plans that anticipate and expect change
Landmark studied its project portfolio and
identified several project and team attributes
• Project Complexity
–
–
–
–
–
–
Team size
Mission criticality
Team location
Team capacity
Domain knowledge gaps
Dependencies
• Uncertainty
–
–
–
–
Market Uncertainty
Technical Uncertainty
Project Duration
Dependents
We scored the Complexity
Attributes on a scale from 1 to 10
Attribute
1
10
Team Size
1
100
Mission Critical
Speculative
Safety Critical with
significant exposure
Team Location
Same Room
Multi-site, World Wide
Team Capacity
Established Team of
experts
New team of mostly
novices
Domain knowledge gaps
Developers know the
domain as well as expert
users
Developers have no
idea about the domain
Dependencies
No dependencies
Tight Integration with
several projects
And we scored the Uncertainty
Attributes
Attribute
1
10
Market Uncertainty
Known deliverable,
possibly defined
contractual obligation
New market that is
unknown and untested
Technical Uncertainty
Enhancements to existing
architecture
New technology, new
architecture. May be
some "R"
Project Duration
1-4 week
24 months
Dependents/ Scope
Flexibility
Well defined contractual
obligations or
Infrastructure
Independent
We cross plotted the results and divided the
chart
into
fourAssessment
quadrants
RAPID
Quadrant
12.0
Uncertainty
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Project Complexity
Uncertainty  2 
log1 0 yi
Complexity 2
log1 0 xi
30.0
Refactored
for Simplicity
Quadrant Assessment
10.0
9.0
8.0
Uncertainty
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
Project Complexity
Uncertainty  geomean( yi )
Complexity geomean( x )
i
10.0
This looked a lot like the Boston
Matrix
Boston Matrix
Market Growth
High
Low
???
Question
Marks
Stars
Cash Cows
Dog
s
Low
Market Share
High
So we named it the Houston Matrix and
RAPIDnames
Quadrant Assessment
gave animal
to the quadrants
12.0
Uncertainty
10.0
Colts
8.0
6.0
Simple, young projects.
Need agility
Tight Teams
Agility to handle uncertainty
Process definition to cope with
complexity
Bulls
Skunks
Cows
4.0
laissez faire
2.0
Dogs
Complex, mature market
Need defined interfaces
0.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Project Complexity
20.0
25.0
30.0
We looked at an overall process flow and
how it would be adaptable.
Iterations
Inputs
Outputs
Adaptive Activities
Preconditions
Postconditions
•Released
Software
CORE Activities
Project
Sanction
RTM
We Identified a set of Core
Processes for all projects to use
•
•
•
•
•
•
Aggregate Product Plan
A/B/C List
Quality Agreement
Continuous Integration
Expert User Involvement
Project Dashboard
The Aggregate Product Plan sets the
high level vision and expectations
Project: OpenWells Davenport
Product: OpenWells
Project Code: 010265
Target Date: 3/30/2004
Version: 2003.11.0.0
Release Date: 3/31/2004
Product Manager: Marcus Ridgway
SDD: David Field
Vision:
Version 2.0 of the new Well Operations reporting and data
analysis application. Will bring powerful new query, graphing
and reporting capabilities. Comprehensive D&WS input data
and output reports will be supported including integration to
Production suite.
Platforms:
Windows 2000 /Oracle 8.1.7
Windows XP / Oracle 9i
Windows 2000 & XP /MSDE
Features:
18 additional reports
Addtnl apps - Data Anlyzr, NG Profile, Autoprint
Extended Rig Equipment support
Knowledge Management - Technical limit drilling,
lessons learned, non-productive time, and
equipment failures
Application enhancements (spreadsheet support and
tailored well services tab and others)
Strategic Fit:
Integration
Workflow ( Prototype, plan, actual)
Top quartile technology
Target Markets:
Existing DIMS customers
US Independents
NOCs
Government and regulatory
organizations
Companies requiring integrated
offering w/decent wellbore
schematic requirements
Service companies
The A/B/C List sets proper
expectations
A
MUST be completed in order to ship the product.
B
SHOULD be completed in order to ship the
product.
C
MAY be completed prior to shipping the product if
time allows.
Only “A” features may be committed to customers.
“A” features must fit in a p90 confidence schedule. No more
than 50% of the planned effort can be allocated to “A” items
A/B/C List
Backlog Plan
Typical Delivery
50%
100%
B
A
50% 25% 25%
C
D
C
B
A
A/B/C List
Oxbridge - P&E Systems Requirements
ARIES
#
1
2
Rank Name
A Honor common login
A
Certify against old data model
3
B
User group requests
4
B
Fill RMS functionality gaps
5
C
Fill RMS functionality gaps
6
C
User group requests
7
C
User group requests
Notes/Purpose/Description
Recognize and support the EDM common login information
Formally test the new ARIES product against the old ARIES database. If
successful, this will ease the transition by giving customers flexibility and
enabling them to easily evaluate acquisition databases
Improve decline calculations to a reserve limit when using hyp/exp
switchover
Provide multi-level approval and freeze process. Allowing multiple sets of
reserve values.
Current reconciliation is by EIA or SEC change codes. Need ability for more
detail and or user defined arrangements.
START date with option for a variable DELAY/SHIFT period (number of
months) including use with ENDDATE
Expand range in which we solve for an unknown decline rate in a hyperbolic
equation
Estimates
P10 P50 P90 T-Shirt
5
10 20 M
10
20
40
L
15
30
60
L
30
60
120 XL
35
70
140 XL
5
10
20
M
5
10
20
M
We use a Quality Agreement
similar to Thomsett
“A”
“B”
Attribute
Very
Important
Important
X
Completeness of Functionality
Completeness of Testing
X
Reliability
X
X
Performance
Installation
X
X
Usability
Integration
X
X
On Line Help
Training
“C”
Not Very
Important
X
Simple, Certain projects are
like Dogs
• They can be trained to be well behaved.
• Just the Core practices
• Laissez Faire…Similar to Crystal Clear
Simple, Uncertain projects
are like Colts
• Young projects with lots of unfettered
energy.
• Landmark has had success with XP in this
quadrant
• Short iterations
• Daily stand-up meetings
• Automated unit tests
Complex, Certain projects
are like Cows
• Often are corporate “Cash Cows”
• More rigorous requirements management;
i.e. use a requirements tool.
• Requires the generation of useful
documentation for interface definitions
• Projects broken up into subprojects and
coordinated by a team of leaders or a
Scrum of Scrums.
• Project plans with dependency and critical
path identification
Complex, Uncertain
projects are like Bulls
• Large projects, hard to control.
• Need agility to steer through the
uncertainty, and some rigor to manage the
complexity.
• A careful union of the Colt and the Cow
• Requires the best Project Managers
• Warning signs
– Project Managers sometimes act as clowns to
provide diversion.
– High BS factor
– Appears that they just want to have their way
with the Cows.
Don’t throw novice project
managers at a bull project
Brooks’ law in action: throw a
developer at a late bull project
Project Complexity and Uncertainty
influence how to scale our agile process
• One size doesn’t fit all
• The assessment tool is a guide
• Landmark’s portfolio balance
–
–
–
–
10% Bulls
10% Cows
20% Colts
60% Dogs
Complexity is like Amplitude and
Uncertainty is like Frequency
Bull
Cow
Colt
Dog
Product Innovation Flow
Hot Items
Product
Backlog
Release
Backlog
A
Items
Items
Idea Filter
Sales
Adaptive Activities
Services
RTM
B&C
Project Sanction
Iteration
Backlog
Newly Discovered
Flexible Scope
Backlog
CORE Activities
Most Items for consideration in next release
Backlog
Burnup
B/C/D
A
Customer
Support
Nickoliasen Model for Idea Filter
(Executive Summit ADC 2004)
High
Market
Differentiating
Partner
Or convert
To Mission Critical
Who Cares?
Focus and
Allocate
Resources
Achieve
Parity
Low
Low
Mission Critical
High
Products Tend to follow a Lifecycle
path
Product Lifecycle
Uncertainty
High
C
Colts
A
Low
Low
Bulls
Skunks
B
Dog
s
Complexity
Cows
High
An Example Lifecycle path
Product Lifecycle
Uncertainty
High
2003
2004
Low
Low
Complexity
High
Business Process Value Chain
Product
Company
Product
Development
Sales
Specifications
Development
Delivery
Contract
Model
Business Need
Development
Delivery
Internal
IT
Market
Business Process Value Chain
Market
Product
Development
Sales
Product
Company
Specifications
Development
Delivery
Contract
Model
Development
Delivery
Internal
IT
Business Need
Business Process Value Chain
X
Y
Z
Innovation
Discovery of unanticipated features or other
innovative ways of improving the product
C
C
A
Integration
Attention to cross product integration issues
A
B
B
Development
Velocity
Speed of development of new product
features
B
B
A
Quality
Product reliability
A
A
B
Customer
Responsiveness
Business agility - ability to respond quickly to
new customer needs
B
C
B
Predictability
Focus on accuracy of release date
B
A
A
Project traceability
Audit ability of project process. Traditionally
very important for outsourcers.
B
B
C
Cost
Importance of a low Cost structure
A
A
C
Business Process Value Chain
O
M
P
Innovation
Discovery of unanticipated features or other
innovative ways of improving the product
C
C
A
Integration
Attention to cross product integration issues
C
B
B
Development
Velocity
Speed of development of new product
features
C
B
A
Quality
Product reliability
B
A
B
Customer
Responsiveness
Business agility - ability to respond quickly to
new customer needs
C
C
B
Predictability
Focus on accuracy of release date
A
B
B
Project traceability
Audit ability of project process. Traditionally
very important for outsourcers.
A
B
C
Cost
Importance of a low Cost structure
A
A
C
Portfolio Management and Dealing
with Darwin (G. Moore)
High
Deploy
Offload
Manage
Market
Differentiating
Invent
Low
Low
Mission Critical
High
Follow the Yellow Brick Road
Oz never did give nothing
to the tin man, that he
didn’t, didn’t already have
Portfolio Management and Dealing
with Darwin
High
Embrace
Change
Ad Hoc
Agile
Eliminate
Change
Control
Change
Outsource
Structured
Market
Differentiating
Create
Change
Low
Low
Mission Critical
High
Early Release of Bull Project
Tools for dealing with Bulls
Bull Program, Dog Project
Don’t mistreat your cows
Don’t over stereotype:
e.g. Not all dogs are the same
Long Ago
Longer Ago
Long Ago and Far Away
Long Ago and Far Away
Long Ago and Far Away
Long Ago and Far Away
•
•
•
•
•
•
The Agile Project Leadership Network
Declaration of Interdependence
(www.apln.org)
We increase return on investment by
making continuous flow of value our
focus.
We deliver reliable results by engaging
customers in frequent interactions and
shared ownership.
We expect uncertainty and manage for
it through iterations, anticipation and
adaptation.
We unleash creativity and innovation
by recognizing that individuals are the
ultimate source of value, and creating an
environment where they can make a
difference.
We boost performance through group
accountability for results and shared
responsibility for team effectiveness.
We improve effectiveness and
reliability through situationally specific
strategies, processes and practices.
David Anderson, Sanjiv Augustine, Christopher Avery, Alistair Cockburn, Mike Cohn,
Doug DeCarlo, Donna Fitzgerald, Jim Highsmith, Ole Jepsen, Lowell Lindstrom, Todd
Little, Kent McDonald, Pollyanna Pixton, Preston Smith and Robert Wysocki
Declaration of Independence from
Bureaucratic Project Management
When in the Course of project events it becomes necessary
for Project Teams to dissolve the political bureaucracies which
have burdened them, a decent respect to the opinions of
mankind requires that they should declare the causes which
impel them to the separation.
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all projects are
not created equal, that they are endowed by their creation
with uncertain and complex characteristics. That project
teams are most effective when they value Life, Liberty and the
pursuit of Happiness.
Logos
Penal Management Institute
Now that I am a Penal
Management Professional I
can show them how to
improve these Convicts’
Maturity Model
Barely Sufficient?
Or not sufficient enough
Project
Leadership
Project
Execution
Relationship of the APLN to
the AgileAlliance
Pair Programming
Continuous Build
TDD
Collaboration
Change
Empowerment
Software
APLN
Beyond Software
Oil and Gas Drilling
Well 2
Well 1
Surface
Seismic reflection
A
Reservoir
Water
B
Oil
Geosteering for Uncertainty
Well 2
Well 1
Surface
A
Planned
Reservoir
Actual
Reservoir
B
Well 2’
Figure 2
Depth vs. Time
Agility Beyond Software
Drilling Project
SCRUM
Morning meeting
Daily standup
Depth vs. Time
Burndown chart
Drilling plan
Backlog
Geosteering
Embrace change
Real Options: Value of Information
and Value of Flexibility
Value of
Information
Planning or prototyping to expose
unknowns prior to making a larger
investment.
Value of Flexibility Investing in enabling flexibility in the
system so that it will be capable of dealing
with an unknown future environment.
Software development has inherent
flexibility in that many decisions can be
delayed until some point in the future.
Investment in comprehensive automated
unit tests helps to keep the cost of change
low.
Interdependence and Leadership
•
•
•
•
•
•
Context
Uncertainty
Value
Customers
Individuals
Teams
Boehm and Turner Observations
on Balancing
•
•
•
•
Neither agile nor plandriven methods provide
a silver bullet
Agile and plan-driven
methods have home
grounds where each
clearly dominates
Future developments
will need both agility
and discipline
Some balanced
methods are emerging
• It is better to build your
method up than to
tailor it down
• Methods are
important, but
potential silver
bullets are more
likely to be found in
areas dealing with
–
–
–
–
People
Values
Communications
Expectations
management
Individuals and Teams
Security
+
+
Individual
Security
-
Tribal Security
-
•Complacency
•Process Focus
Rules and Regulations
become important
•No risk or Innovation
•Cooperative Effort to
strengthen tribe
•Personal Sacrifice
•Common Enemy
•Resignation from
tribe
•Tribe ejects individual
•Individual acts to
harm tribe
•Everyone leaves the
tribe
•Individuals lay claim
to valuables
•Search for new tribe
to join
Value
+
+
Individual
Value
-
Tribal Value
-
•Strong support and
encouragement
•Individual heroics
praised
•High motivation
•Extreme loyalty
•Urgency to change
•Individuals hone their
skills
•Symbols reaffirmed
•Relationships
reviewed & improved
•Individual feels out of
step with tribe
•Effort to integrate with
tribe
•Form new tribe
•Finger pointing
•Involve outsiders
•Promote own world
view
•In fighting
Tribal Leadership
• Focus on increasing
– Individual Security
– Tribal Value
– Individual Value
• Do not make the tribe too secure
– Never ending goal
Quadrant
TV+ IV+
TV- IV+
TV- IVTV+ IVTS+ IS+
TS- IS+
TS- ISTS+ IS-
Action
Maintain the status quo
Emphasize just cause. Reinforce TV+
Define common enemy
Create new sources of IV+
New source of TV+,
Reinforce common enemy and just
cause
Replace leadership
Beware of subtribes
Get the point?