Transcript The Political Future for South

THE BLACK SEA FORUM
FOR DIALOGUE AND PARTNERSHIP
Bucharest Summit, 4th – 6th of June 2006
Crisis management: prevention, response,
readiness and recovery
Dr. Velizar Shalamanov
PPD SfP981149
CoE in Operational Analyses (http://www.gcmarshall.bg/sfp981149/)
in IPP-BAS / George C. Marshall Assoc. -Bulgaria
This publication is supported by NATO’s Scientific Division in
the framework of Science for Peace Program - Project
SFP-981149 (2005-2007) in preparation of EU TACOM
SEE-2006 exercise and under kind invitation and support
from Romanian MoFA
Outline
Crisis Management – new challenge for security
What are the main crises that could affect the region?
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What are the key organisational capabilities for crisis
management?
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National level
Regional level
International level
What needs to be built to improve readiness in the region?
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Terrorism
Natural disasters
Health pandemics
Organisational capabilities
Internal and external resources
Concept development and Experimentation in the Area of
Civil Security / Crisis management – solution for Wider BS
Area.
New Security Environment – New
Challenges: Crisis Management
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Types of crisis we face:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
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Disasters / Catastrophes – including health pandemics
Public Order / Security
Military / paramilitary operations – expeditionary ops
Threatened interests abroad
Terrorism and organized crime / trafficking
Crisis management and new scope of:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
risks activated to form the situation
development of the situation
citizens involved / impacted
involved institutions (local, district, national, regional, global)
required resources as quality and quantity
legal norms activated
the cooperation on the ground
What are the main crises that
could affect the region?
 Terrorism – challenge for security, but mostly in Caucasus
and Turkey. More serious issue is organized crime and
trafficking, corruption.
 Natural disasters and industrial incidents are real threat to
security of the citizens and critical infrastructure.
 Health pandemics could be serious risk for citizens.
 Conclusion:
Trans-border problem
Multi-agency response needed
Little alert time
Threat to large number of citizens
Consequence management challenge
High cost of recovery
High level of awareness and training is required
Civil Security Concept–Citizen(s) and its
Living Environment in the Center
1. Third Pillar of the Security Sector: Crisis Response and
Emergency Management Service = Civil Security Organization
2. Civil Society and Citizen: Third Factor in SSR to address Civil
Security
3. Balance between central power and local powers
4. Balance between public and private component
5. Balance between state component and volunteer components
6. Balance between Civil Security Organization and MoD / MoI,
other traditional security sector services
7. Level of international cooperation
Building of Integrated Security Sector through Third Generation SSR
White paper on Civil Security in Bulgaria presented in 2004
Concept for Protection of Population and National Economy as Civil Security
Concept is supported in 2005/2006
What are the key organisational
capabilities for crisis management?
 National level – integration of early warning
systems, emergency call integrated system,
integrated emergency management,
interoperability of response units and legal base
for joint action
 Regional level – regional coordination needed,
together with joint training and interoperability of
the systems, joint early warning
 International level – EU and NATO need to
cooperate in order to be effective in the region,
UN/OSCE have to be involved, BSEC has the
mandate to cover the problem
Third Generation of SSR: Integrated Security
Sector (ISS) focused on Civil Security
1. Functional Challenge - responsibilities
2. Structural Challenge – separate organization
3. Operational Challenge – leading / support organization for
different operations
4. Capabilities Challenge – ownership of critical capabilities
5. Civil Control Issue: Parliamentarian control of resources,
operations, personnel policy
6. International Cooperation Issue (SEE, BSCR / WBSA,
NATO/PfP, EU, OSCE) – Code of Conduct and Cooperation on
Emergency Management
7. Change Management Issue (Transformation) of the security
sector to address new missions and for regional cooperation
What needs to be built to
improve readiness in the region?
 Organisational capabilities
– Integrated emergency / crisis management system (IEMS) on the national
and districts level
– Planning, training, interoperability of equipment
– Resource management for prevention, response, readiness and
recovery
 Internal and external resources
– National resources
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–
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Directly in state emergency management institution
In different bodies with first responders
Public private partnership
Volunteers and donors
BSEC Role
EU support through ECHO, MIC
NATO support through EADRCC
US role in the Black Sea Crisis Management, including the issue of US
footprint around Black Sea
– UN OCHA
Key Role of Scenario Development in
Concept Experimentation
Security Scenario Development NATO ARW, Boyana-2005, Bulgaria
1.
2.
3.
Methodology identified
Regional view tested
Network Established
but
1. Follow up is postponed
2. Local owner is missed
3. NATO, EU, US interest is limited
Institutional approach similar to SEEGROUP SEECAP is
needed for Civil Security – possible goal for NATO
ARW, Bansko-2006, Bulgaria
EU TACOM SEE-2006 as a Case
Study on Civil Security
1. Terrorist attack – disasters / catastrophes
consequence management
2. New Emergency management (Civil Security
Ministry) and its cooperation with MoD, MoI and
other agencies for integrated response
3. SEE Regional Cooperation and EU MIC, NATO
EADRCC
4. Bul Protection 2006, EU CME 06, NATO CMX 06
exercises integration
5. Extension to WBSA and integration in PfP/EAPC
and EU Neighborhood Policy
Experimentation of Civil Security Concept
1. Concept development and study of political / legal framework,
scenario development with NATO ARW and Scientific
Coordination Council to Standing Government Commission on
protection of Population
2. Architecture development and assessment with USTDA IEMS
Feasibility Study
3. CAX for experimentation, training, knowledge acquisition with
EU TACOM SEE-2006
4. Change management: planning, costing, performance
measurement, reporting with development of Ministry of State
Policy on Disasters and Catastrophes (MSPDC) – supported
by NATO SfP 981149 (2005-2007)
5. Knowledge management and education / training with DSC,
AMoI, UNWE, SU and National Training Center Directorate of
MSPDC, supported by National Science Foundation Security
Sector Transformation Project (2006-2009)
Regional (SEE/WBSA) Training, Simulation and
Analysis Center (JTSAC) on Civil Security
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Step to Civil Security Coordination Center for WBSA
Research in the Area of Civil Security and Concept
Development
Training, including ADL and CAX / Simulations for
Experimentation
Analysis and LL from Exercises
Certification of personnel and teams
Integration between MoDs, MoIs and Civil Protection
Services (Emergency Management Ministries) using
Academic Environment
Joint venture – Administration / NGO, Universities,
Academia Institutes; Regional players / NATO, EU, US
Effective Management of JTSAC-IPP
Management of Research Organizations (CoE-OA case)
Management of Research Projects (CM CAX case)
Integration of NATO, EU, US and National Funding for
Development of JTSAC-CS
WG1
WG7
General Management
Costing and
analyses
WG2
WG3
Planning
and PR
WG4
-Concept development - Scenario develop- Documentation
- Lessons learned
- Certification
- Briefings
ment and simulation
- Mathematical and
software support
- CAX configuration
-JTSAC Information
Management System
WG5
- Communications
- Emergency calls
- Alerting
- Field CM Center
- Resources
management and
public relations
WG6
- Administrative
services
Regional JTSAC Implementation
 Strategy for development of Regional (SEE/GBSA) JTSAC
– Civil Security (Civil Protection) as Bulgarian Contribution
to EU/NATO/US efforts in SEE/GBSA in the Area of
Emergency Management (CMEP)
 Bulgaria is active in drafting Black Sea Strategy of NATO.
Bulgaria is chairing for two years BSEC – WG “Civil
Protection”, and is very active in NATO with EADRCC as
well as in EU with MIC.
 For EU TACOM SEE-2006 in the Institute of parallel
processing (IPP-BAS) the National Joint Training
Simulation and Analysis Center (JTSAC) on Civil Security
(Civil Protection) will be established and with Government
commitment will be very easy to be promoted as Regional
(SEE/GBSA) JTSAC – Civil Security (Civil Protection).
Education for Change Management in Security Sector
on Civil Security
(international master degree)
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
National and International Security Course
SSR and Integrated Security Sector Course
Crisis Management and Civil Security Course
EAG and CAX Course
Program / Resource Management in Security
Area Course
6. Knowledge Management in Security Area
Course
7. Civil – Military Relations and Civil Control
Course
Conclusions
 Need for Civil Security Concept to address Crisis
management from the side of end user of security – the
CITIZEN
 Training on regional bases is required to achieve common
understanding of the CM challenge and to develop Code of
Conduct
 CAX could be key element for concept development,
experimentation and training
 Network of existing projects on CM could create solid base
for better cooperation, will form a base for BSEC role and
could consolidate internal as well as EU/NATO/US funding
 Academic cooperation with participation of business and
support from the administration is possible effective
approach to improve the capabilities in crisis management