Executive Issues Seminar Series 1997

WHY THE DROP IN CRIME?

Law Enforcement Management Institute of Texas Sam Houston State University

CRIME TRENDS

Dr. Larry Hoover Police Research Center Sam Houston State University

POSSIBLE EXPLANATIONS

• • • • • Social-demographic Trends Economic Conditions Drug Use Prevalence Incarceration Rates Police Programs.

TWO CONTRASTING MEASURES UNIFORM CRIME REPORTS Offenses Known to the Police NATIONAL CRIME VICTIMIZATION SURVEY Census Bureau Telephone Survey Part I and Part II Catagories Hierarchy Rule Rotating Sample of 56,000 Households Counts Both Personal & Business Part I Offenses : Murder, Rape, Robbery, Agg Assault, Burglary, Motor Vehicle Theft, Larceny, (Arson).

Victimization of persons and household for: Rape, Robbery, Assault, Personal Theft, Household Theft, Burglary, Motor Vehicle Theft.

LIMITATIONS OF THE UCR

• Offense Classification is Subject to Bias & • • • Inconsistency Varies with Citizen Propensity to Report Varies with Police Propensity to Record Part I Catagory Skewed by Larceny.

CRIME INDEX OFFENSES 1997 Percent Distribution Forcible Rape 0.7% Murder 0.1% Motor Vehicle Theft 10.3% Robbery 3.8% Aggravated Assault 7.8% Larceny-Theft 58.6% Burglary 18.7%

Source: 1997 UCR

LIMITATION OF THE NCVS

• • Does Not Count Business Crime Subject to Recall Inconsistency, • Including Telescoping Significant Variation When Queries Are Rephrased, Redesign in 1994 • Complicates Prior Comparisons Measures Only Victimizations of Those Over 12 Yrs., National Sample Only.

GENERAL OBSERVATIONS

•

REGARDING UCR TRENDS

• • Overall Rate Nearly Tripled from 1960 to 1975, relatively stable from 1975 until 1985, then increased by 13% 1985-91 • Murder Rate Dropped 20% from 1980 to 1995, Now the Same as the 1970’s Serious Violent Crime Rate Peaked in 1991, Has Dropped 10% Since Then, But Is Still 40% Higher Than In 1975 Crimes Reported to the Police Have Dropped in 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995.

GENERAL OBSERVATIONS REGARDING NCVS TRENDS

• • • Shows Gradual Decrease in Property Crime Except Auto Theft from 1984 to 1992 • • Slight Increase in Violent Crime During Same Period Redesigned in 1993 A 4.5% Decrease in Property Crime from 1993 to 1994, a Slight Decrease in Violent Crime A 9% Decrease in Property Crime from 1994 to 1995, a 12% Decrease in Violent Crime.

UCR TOTAL INDEX RATE

7000 6500 6000 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 19 60 19 62 19 64 19 66 19 68 19 70 19 72 19 74 19 76 19 78 19 80 Year 19 82 19 84 19 86 19 88 19 90 19 92 19 94 19 96

NATIONAL VIOLENT UCR INDEX

800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 Year 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996

NATIONAL PROPERTY UCR INDEX

6000 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 Year

DISCREPENCIES BETWEEN UCR AND NCVS

• Most Obvious Explanation for Dramatic Increases in UCR During Late 1980’s • Compared to NCVS Is Police Recording Possible That Reporting Increased, Particularly in Sexual Assault, But Does Not • Likely Account for All Differences Possible But Very Unlikely That Differences in Crime Targets (Businesses) Account for Some Difference.

8000 7500 7000 6500 6000 5500 5000

STATEWIDE UCR RATE

1990 1991 1992 1993

Year

1994 1995 1996 1997

Change From 1996 to 1997 Selected Texas Cities

Amarillo Lubbock -7.8% -1.4% Garland -8.9% Grand Prairie +8.2% Brownsville -6.3% McAllen -13.3% Killeen San Angelo +2.4% -6.3% Dallas Fort Worth +0.2% -10.1% Longview -9.0% Tyler +4.1%

TEXAS MSA CRIME RATE TRENDS

11000 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 Year STATEWIDE AUSTIN DALLAS EL PASO FT WORTH HOUSTON SAN ANTONIO

44 42 32 30 28 26 40 38 36 34

UCR DECLINE 1990-97 MSA