Transcript Diapositiva 1

Assessment with the Italian national IAM of
technical and non-technical measures in the
Regional Air Quality Management Plans
I. D’Elia, M. Bencardino, L. Ciancarella, M. Contaldi, G. Vialetto
ENEA
NIAM – IIASA 23rd March 2009
Assessment with the Italian national IAM of technical and non-technical
measures in the Regional Air Quality Management Plans
INTRODUCTION: The project
DLgs n. 351 – 4/08/1999
With the Italian decree n. 351/1999 to implement the European Directive
96/69/CE, the air pollution prevention, improvement and preservation have
been assigned to the Italian administrative Regions while the European
Directive implementation remains at a national level
The REGIONAL AIR QUALITY MANAGEMENT PLANS (AQMPs)
a fundamental phase of the entire process of assessment, planning and
management where air quality measures should be defined and adopted
Each Italian Region has to elaborate its own AQMPs in order to
meet established environmental target
NIAM – IIASA 23rd March 2009
Assessment with the Italian national IAM of technical and non-technical
measures in the Regional Air Quality Management Plans
INTRODUCTION: The project
The Italian Regional AQMPs includes both technical and non technical
measures that regard different areas producing POLICY INTEGRATION
The version of the RAINS-Italy model used
to assess the Regional AQMPs is restricted
to END-of PIPE measures.
The behavioural measure analysis is left to
the evaluation of alternative driving force
exogenous scenarios.
AQMPs have been assessed
comparing the CLE scenario
and the different alternative
scenarios coming from the
evaluation of TMs and
NTMs
The aim of the project is the assessment of the AQMPs and to draw
up a reasoned list about all the TMs and NTMs adopted in the
Regional AQMPs.
NIAM – IIASA 23rd March 2009
Assessment with the Italian national IAM of technical and non-technical
measures in the Regional Air Quality Management Plans
INTRODUCTION: TM and NTM definition
1.
Many NTM definitions in literature but no consensus among them and
the difference between TM and NTM;
2.
Often TM = end-of-pipe measure; NTM = structural and behavioural
changes;
3.
NTMs are NOT completely independent from technology changes;
4.
No agreement in distinguishing NTMs and policy instruments;
5.
RAINS-Italy modelled only the TMs
DEFINITION ADOPTED:
NTMs represent consumption reduction, substitution,
technology choice and technology use. In classifying the
measure as NTM, a major role to human choice has been
attributed
NIAM – IIASA 23rd March 2009
Assessment with the Italian national IAM of technical and non-technical
measures in the Regional Air Quality Management Plans
INTRODUCTION: TM and NTM definition
Harmonization
with national/local
emission
inventories
Activity input data
scenario
Non Technical
Measures
INPUT SCENARIO
DEFINITION
(CLE, MTFR...)
Emission
inventory
RAINS-Italy
Control Strategy
definition
Technical Measures
NIAM – IIASA 23rd March 2009
Assessment with the Italian national IAM of technical and non-technical
measures in the Regional Air Quality Management Plans
Project Methodology
HARMONIZATION
between a regional emission
inventory and RAINS-Italy
emissions at a given base year;
CLE INPUT DATA SCENARIO
Energy, Activity levels, Control Strategy
AQ MEASURES
AQ SCENARIO =
Reference Scenario
Definition of a regional
energy and non energy
scenario, and regional
control strategy.
The regional energy scenario:
1. Not available in many Regions;
2. Obtained downscaling the
national projection + regional
information
3. Coherence with the national
official energy projection;
MAPS
NIAM – IIASA 23rd March 2009
Assessment with the Italian national IAM of technical and non-technical
measures in the Regional Air Quality Management Plans
Energy, Domestic and Road Transport regional measure adoption frequency
n°regions
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
M easures
1 = Urban Waste incineration with heat
recovery;
2 = Biogas recovery in agricultural and in
farming sectors;
3 = District heating Plant with waste and
biomass;
4 = Photovoltaic;
5 = Wind;
6 = Hydroelectric;
7 = Geothermic Well;
8 = High efficiency domestic boilers;
9 = Energy efficiency in building;
10 = Residential heating accountability;
11 = Heat pumps;
12 = Solar heating systems;
13 = Regulation of some fuel use;
14 = Incentives for shift to natural gas in
domestic boilers;
15 = Efficiency improvements in fireplaces
and stoves;
16 = Low emission zones;
17 = Road traffic restriction;
18 = Pollution charge;
19 = Car sharing;
20 = Motorway speed limits;
21 = Bike sharing;
22 = Incentives for new cars;
23 = Incentives for new diesel heavy duty;
24 = Opening new rail lines;
25 = Opening new underground lines;
26 = Cycle paths;
27 = Sea motorway;
28 = Bus investment (new buses, service
extension, frequency increase);
29 = Antiparticulate filter;
30 = Incentives for biofuel public
transport;
31 = New methane service stations;
32 = Incentive for hydrogen cars;
33 = Rationalising load transport in urban
area;
NIAM – IIASA 23rd March 2009
Assessment with the Italian national IAM of technical and non-technical
measures in the Regional Air Quality Management Plans
MEASURES
PARAMETERS
- estimation of biomass consumption
increase
- type of new waste incineration plant
(EF, efficiency…)
- estimation of fossil fuel consumption
Urban Waste incineration with
decrease in power plant
heat recovery
- estimation of fossil fuel consumption
decrease in the domestic sector
- fossil fuel power plant efficiency
- domestic boiler efficiency
- spatial applicability of the measure
- estimation of biomass and waste
consumption increase
- type of new waste incineration plant
(EF, efficiency…)
- estimation of fossil fuel consumption
District Heating Plant with waste
decrease in power plant
and biomass
- estimation of fossil fuel consumption
decrease in the domestic sector
- fossil fuel power plant efficiency
- domestic boiler efficiency
- spatial applicability of the measure
- substitution rate of domestic boiler
- new domestic boiler efficiency
High efficiency domestic boilers
- domestic boiler efficiency assumed in
the CLE scenario
- new domestic boiler EF
- estimation fuel consumption reduction
- allocation of domestic fuel reduction
through the different fuels
- spatial applicability of the measure
NIAM – IIASA 23rd March 2009
RAINS-Italy
- energy scenario: PP_NEW:
increase of waste and
biomass consumption;
reduction of fossil fuel
consumption + DOM:
decrease of fossil fuel
- control strategy: PP: verify
technology for new plants
- energy scenario: PP_NEW:
increase of waste and
biomass consumption;
reduction of fossil fuel
consumption + DOM:
decrease of fossil fuel
- control strategy: PP: verify
technology for new plants
- energy scenario: DOM:
decrease of fossil fuel
consumption
- control strategy: DOM:
increase technology
penetration
Assessment with the Italian national IAM of technical and non-technical
measures in the Regional Air Quality Management Plans
MEASURES
PARAMETERS
RAINS-Italy
- buildings involved in the energy
efficiency process divided in old and new
Energy efficiency in building
Low emission zones
Incentives for new cars
- energy requirement to reach in new and
old building
- energy requirement assumed in the CLE
scenario
- estimation of fuel reduction consumed
in the domestic sector
- allocation of domestic fuel reduction
through the different fuels
- spatial applicability of the measure
- Low emission zone extension
- fleet involved by the measure
- urban speed
- spatial applicability of the measure
- 2 hypothesis:
1) car substitution
2) fuel reduction: in this case
* fuel consumption reduction of cars
* fuel increase of buses
- fleet involved by the measure
- spatial applicability of the measure
- car replaced by the incentives
NIAM – IIASA 23rd March 2009
- energy scenario: DOM:
decrease of fossil fuel
consumption
- control strategy
modification
or
- energy scenario
modification
- control strategy
modification
Assessment with the Italian national IAM of technical and non-technical
measures in the Regional Air Quality Management Plans
SO2, NOx, PM10 emission saved (%) on total sectoral regional
emission calculated respect to the CLE scenario at 2010
Urban Waste
incineration with heat
recovery
District Heating Plant
with waste and
biomass
SO2
SO2
NOx
PM10
NOx
PM10
High efficiency
domestic boilers
SO2
NOx
PM10
Energy efficiency in
building
Low emission zones
Incentives for new
cars
SO2
SO2
SO2
NOx
PM10
NOx
PM10
NOx
PM10
20.00%
15.00%
10.00%
5.00%
0.00%
-5.00%
-10.00%
-15.00%
-20.00%
-25.00%
-30.00%
-35.00%
The additive bars show the
different sectoral emission
reduction for each Region where
the AQ measures were applied
NIAM – IIASA 23rd March 2009
Assessment with the Italian national IAM of technical and non-technical
measures in the Regional Air Quality Management Plans
SO2, NOx, PM10 emission saved (%) on total regional emission
calculated respect to the CLE scenario at 2010
Urban Waste
incineration with heat
recovery
District Heating Plant
with waste and
biomass
SO2
SO2
NOx
PM10
NOx
PM10
High efficiency
domestic boilers
SO2
NOx
PM10
Energy efficiency in
building
Low emission zones
SO2
SO2
NOx
PM10
6.00%
4.00%
2.00%
0.00%
-2.00%
-4.00%
-6.00%
-8.00%
NIAM – IIASA 23rd March 2009
NOx
PM10
Incentives for new
cars
SO2
NOx
PM10
Assessment with the Italian national IAM of technical and non-technical
measures in the Regional Air Quality Management Plans
Energy, Domestic and Road Transport regional measure adoption frequency
Contribution (%) by measure to PM10 emission savings
30.0%
n°regions
10
9
25.0%
8
7
20.0%
6
5
15.0%
4
10.0%
3
2
5.0%
1
0.0%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
Measures
1 = Urban Waste incineration with heat
recovery;
2 = Biogas recovery in agricultural and in
farming sectors;
3 = District heating Plant with waste and
biomass;
4 = Photovoltaic;
5 = Wind;
6 = Hydroelectric;
7 = Geothermic Well;
8 = High efficiency domestic boilers;
9 = Energy efficiency in building;
10 = Residential heating accountability;
11 = Heat pumps;
12 = Solar heating systems;
13 = Regulation of some fuel use;
14 = Incentives for shift to natural gas in
domestic boilers;
15 = Efficiency improvements in fireplaces
and stoves;
16 = Low emission zones;
17 = Road traffic restriction;
18 = Pollution charge;
19 = Car sharing;
20 = Motorway speed limits;
21 = Bike sharing;
22 = Incentives for new cars;
23 = Incentives for new diesel heavy duty;
24 = Opening new rail lines;
25 = Opening new underground lines;
26 = Cycle paths;
27 = Sea motorway;
28 = Bus investment (new buses, service
extension, frequency increase);
29 = Antiparticulate filter;
30 = Incentives for biofuel public
transport;
31 = New methane service stations;
32 = Incentive for hydrogen cars;
33 = Rationalising load transport in urban
area;
NIAM – IIASA 23rd March 2009
Assessment with the Italian national IAM of technical and non-technical
measures in the Regional Air Quality Management Plans
AQ emission scenario
30.0
PM10 emissions (kt)
27.0
Other
24.0
Waste
21.0
Livestock
Maritime
18.0
Off-road Transport
15.0
Road Transport
12.0
Domestic
Industry
9.0
Refinery
6.0
Power Plants
3.0
0.0
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Livestock
15%
For each of the 20 Regions both
CLE and QA emission scenarios
were calculated by the RAINS-Italy
model at a 5-year interval
Power Plants
2%
Waste Other
2%
6%
Refinery
1%
Industry
23%
Off-road
Transport
13%
Road
Transport
19%
NIAM – IIASA 23rd March 2009
Domestic
19%
Assessment with the Italian national IAM of technical and non-technical
measures in the Regional Air Quality Management Plans
QA and CLE concentration scenario comparison at 2010
QA/CLE (%)
QA/CLE (mg/m3)
NIAM – IIASA 23rd March 2009
Assessment with the Italian national IAM of technical and non-technical
measures in the Regional Air Quality Management Plans
CONCLUSION
No more TMs alone are enough to meet environmental targets,
changes are also required in our behaviours both as individuals and
societies;
-
Lack a consensus upon NTM definition and often confused with policy
instruments;
-
NTMs not completely independent from technology changes and often
supported by fiscal/economic incentives;
-
The realization of a shared and unique guideline/database could be an
important step to find NTM air pollution impacts, their market and nonmarket costs, the possible implemental instruments, their social
effects…;
-
The inclusion of NTMs in the modelling process still contain
uncertainties;
-
In Italy the NTMs dominate the domestic and transport sector where
they represent half of the emission reduction of the AQMPs;
-
NTMs are greatly influenced by regional factors and their influence on
emission reduction depend on spatial and applicability variations;
-
-
Next step: cost analysis
NIAM – IIASA 23rd March 2009