Transcript Demand modelling
The changing face of the terminal operator business
Discussion – David Greig ACCC regulatory conference July 2007
European and Australian geography EUROPE
Ports import and export
AUSTRALIA
Ports import or export Inland economic activity Population >300m Adjacent ports Coastal economic activity Population 21m Separated ports Alternative ports equidistant A particular port is closest Slide 2
The main trades
Exports (minerals, grain…) from inland by rail to nearest port • Usually a unique port, sometimes two (Vic/SA grain, Qld coal) Imports shipped direct to each main (coastal) market Coastal shipping limited to bulk commodities (petroleum, alumina, cement…) and Tasmania Not much land bridging Slide 3
Land bridging
Adelaide-Melbourne for shipping frequency Melbourne-Darwin didn’t happen A blip of rail land bridging during a temporary shipping shortage Some by transfer between ships Generally uneconomic because of Australia’s geography Slide 4
Transport barriers to entry
Trucking close to perfect competition No real barriers to coastal shipping Ports • • physical barriers low – land available or reclaimable commercial barriers significant – need to enter 2 or 3 ports (Melbourne experience) Logistics skills replicable Rail entry barriers declining Slide 5
Rail entry barriers
Entry constrained by infrastructure capacity – train paths Best paths taken – train length, time of day However a major Auslink/ARTC upgrade is under way • • • Many more long passing loops – and can keep adding – and improved signalling Much more capacity, for growth and new entrants Contrast with Europe Slide 6
Slide 7
Mode choice
23% 26%
Price Reliability Availability
51%
Slide 8
Mode performance 2004 – M to B
price Reliability Availability Road 0-20% rail 95% Sea 20-40% below d-d rail Rail linehaul 30-45% below road 90% 35-45% Rail door to door 0-20% below road 35-45% 99% 10% 40-45% 40-45% Transit time 21-27 hrs 3-3.5 days 36 hrs 42 hrs Slide 9
Road and rail availability
8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% Current departure time from customer 2009 departure time from customer 2% 1% 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Time of day
24 hour distribution of truck departures Slide 10
Rail market share
M-B inland M-B coastal S-B M-S Slide 11
Conclusions
Far less port choice than Europe Far more port operator market share than Europe However: • • ACCC => Toll/Asciano split Stevedoring somewhat contestable Rest of the chain is becoming contestable.
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