Transcript Udfordringer og handlemuligheder

Helsingør - 4 June 2009
Anders Kofoed-Wiuff,
Ea Energy Analyses
Ea Energianalyse
Scope of the study
• Phase I
– Overview of current energy situation
– Scenarios for the future regional energy system
• Phase II
– Detailed scenario analyses of the electricity and district
heating markets
– Prioritized list of regional projects/polices to promote the
region as a sustainable region
• Phase III
– Develop strategies for deployment
– Regional knowledge sharing in the field of sustainable
energy
– Outline the possibilities for the industry to be frontrunners
in the development of new energy technologies
Medio 2008
Medio 2009
Ea Energianalyse
GAS
OIL
Hydro
Hydro
Nuclear
Bio
Coal
Gas
Wind
Coal
Nuclear
Wind
Nuclear
Bio
Hydro
Gas
Coal
Oilshale Hydro
Nuclear
Hydro, Gas
Nuclear
GAS
OIL
Coal
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Characteristics of the region
* Including only North East Germany and North West Russia
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Characteristics of the region
Energy intensity
TJ/M€
25
20
15
10
5
0
1990
1995
Old democracies
2000
2005
New democracies
Ea Energianalyse
How can the energy and transport
systems in the region develop to
achieve:
I. 50 % reduction of CO2 emissions
in 2030 compared to 1990
II. 50 % reduction in oil consumption
in 2030 compared to 2005
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Two scenarios for 2030
Small-tech
•
•
•
•
Energy savings
District heating - CHP
Biomass
Wind, wave, solar
• Improved fuel
economy
• Electric vehicles
• Modal-change
• ICT
Big-tech
• CCS
• Nuclear power
• Biomass
• Improved fuel
economy
• Electric vehicles
• Biofuels
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Results
Gross energy consumption
PJ
16.000
14.000
12.000
10.000
8.000
Nuclear
RE
6.000
Natural gas
Coal
4.000
Oil
2.000
50% oil target
-
2005
Reference 2030
Small-Tech
Big-Tech
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Results
Mt CO2 / year
Other energy
1.000
Electricity and
district heat
Transport
800
Storage CO2
600
400
200
-200
Ea Energianalyse
Scope of the study
• Phase I
– Overview of current energy situation
– Scenarios for the future regional energy system
• Phase II
– Detailed scenario analyses of the electricity and district
heating markets
– Prioritized list of regional projects/polices to promote the
region as a sustainable region
• Phase III
– Develop strategies for deployment
– Regional knowledge sharing in the field of sustainable
energy
– Outline the possibilities for the industry to be frontrunners
in the development of new energy technologies
Medio 2008
Medio 2009
Ea Energianalyse
Balmorel model
• The Balmorel model determines based on
market principles and regulation:
– generation of electricity and heat,
distinguished by technology and fuel
– consumption of electricity and heat
– electricity transmission
– emissions
– prices
– optimal investments in generation capacity
given framework conditions and cost data
– costs and benefits of alternative scenarios
The model is open source: www.balmorel.com
Ea Energianalyse
•
•
•
Basic model contains 17
areas with transmission
constraints
For the purpose of this
study data for Russia is
included in the model
North-West Russia
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Karelia
Kola
Pskov
Kaliningrad Arkhangelsk
St. Petersburg incl .
Leningrad
Novgorod
Komi
Data is obtained from publicly
available sources
DE_CS
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Baseline scenario 2010-2030
• Fuel prices according to International Energy
Agency - 120 $/bbl in 2030
• Targets
– 2020: 21 % CO2 reduction, 20 % RE (national
targets)
– 2030: 38 % CO2 reduction (50 % compared to
1990), 20 % renewable energy (national targets)
• Model decides new investments in generation
capacity except nuclear and hydro power
• Country specific renewable energy sources
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Development nuclear power
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Selected DRAFT results
Baseline: Investments
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Selected DRAFT results
Baseline: Electricity generation
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Selected DRAFT results
CO2-emissions (Mill. tonnes)
1990
2005
21%red
50%red
38%
red
Ea Energianalyse
Selected DRAFT results
CO2 and RE prices
CO2-price
Shadow prices for CO2 target and RE target
2020
2030
The cost in the model
of additionally
Country
CO
RE
CO
RE
reducing one
ton ofEUR/MWh
CO2 EUR/ton EUR/MWh
EUR/ton
Denmark
(may
be interpreted as9 an estimate of the
Estonia
CO2-price)
Finland
15
2
2
el
el
16
Latvia
15
RE-price
5
59
Lithuania
14
The
cost in the model -of additionally Norway
increasing
RE generation
by one MWhPoland
Sweden
16 an estimate of 0.5
(may
be interpreted as
the
Russia
13
Germany
cost of a RE certificate)
Ea Energianalyse
Ea Energianalyse
Sensitivity scenarios
• Regional renewable energy target
• Increased energy efficiency (lower demand for
electricity, particularly for heating)
• Strong interconnectors
• Stronger CO2 target in 2020 (30%@COP15)
• Case: Integrated off-shore grid at Kriegers
Flak
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Selected DRAFT results
Regional renewable target
Shadow prices for CO2 target and RE target
2020
Country
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
Germany
Latvia
Lithuania
2030
CO2
EUR/ton
RE
EUR/MWhel
CO2
EUR/ton
RE
EUR/MWhel
0
18
54
0
Based on the model analyses it
will be possible to quantify the
benefits of a common a RE
framework
Norway
Poland
Sweden
Russia
Ea Energianalyse
Selected DRAFT results
Benefits of increasing the
transmission grid in the region
Germany Germany
Germany Germany
Germany Denmark
Denmark Denmark
Denmark
Germany
Germany
Germany
Denmark
Denmark
Germany
Cen.
NE
NW
East
West
Cen.
NE
NW
East
West
Cen.
NE
NW
East
West
Germany
Germany
Germany
Cen.
Cen.
Cen.
Germany
Germany
Germany
NE
NE
NE
Germany
Germany
Germany
NW
NW
NW
Denmark
Denmark
Denmark
East
East
East
Denmark
Denmark
Denmark
West
West
West
Estonia
Estonia
Estonia
Finland
Finland
Finland
Lithuania
Lithuania
Lithuania
Latvia
Latvia
Latvia
Norway
Norway
Norway
MM
M
Estonia Finland
Finland Lithuania
Lithuania Latvia
Latvia
Estonia
Estonia
Norway Norway
Norway Norway
Norway Norway
Norway
Norway
M
Oslo
Poland
M
NN
Oslo
SS
Poland
Sweden M Sweden N Sweden S
Sweden
Connections linking the thermal power based
systems in Poland and Germany and the Nordic
power system dominated by hydro power have the
highest value.
NorwayN
Norway
NN
Norway
Norway
Norway
Norway
Oslo
Oslo
Oslo
NorwaySSS
Norway
Norway
Poland
Poland
Poland
Sweden
Sweden
Sweden
MM
M
-- -
59.745
59.745
59.745
80.651
80.651
80.651
59.745
59.745
59.745
-- -
20.906
20.906
20.906
50.996
50.996
50.996
51.096
51.096
51.096
80.651
80.651
80.651
20.906
20.906
20.906
-- -
71.531
71.531
71.531
71.604
71.604
71.604
77.310
77.310
50.996
50.996
50.996
71.531
71.531
71.531
-- -
309
309
309
5.779
5.779
25.364
25.364
2.607
2.607
2.353
51.096
51.096
51.096
71.604
71.604
71.604
309
309
309
-- -
5.707
5.707
25.561
25.561
7.934
7.934
2.483
19.959
19.959
15.762
15.762
29.392
29.392
29.473
29.473
2.194
100.468
-4.461
4.461
10.103
10.103
9.789
9.789
4.461
4.461
--
10.103
10.103
9.789
9.789
-399
399
399
399
--
6.048
6.048
6.407
6.407
244
244
53.290
73.731
16.463
16.463
--
16.106
29.328
29.409
3.506
3.506
200
Strengthening connections between the
Baltic countries and Scandinavia also appear
attractive.
16.463
16.463
5.744
5.744
5.744
77.310
77.310
77.310
100.468
100.468
100.468
62.983
62.983
62.983
244
244
5.707
5.707
5.707
3.506
3.506
25.364
25.364
25.364
2.607
2.607
2.607
2.483
2.483
2.483
19.959
19.959
15.762
15.762
6.048
6.048
6.407
6.407
29.392
29.392
29.473
29.473
16.106
16.106
53.290
53.290
53.290
73.731
73.731
73.731
2.353
2.353
2.353
--
5.672
5.672
5.672
SwedenN
Sweden
NN
Sweden
SwedenSSS
Sweden
Sweden
62.983
62.983
2.194
2.194
2.194
29.409
29.409
404
404
404
404
--
3.460
3.460
3.757
3.343
3.475
--
200
200
29.328
29.328
--
397
397
397
23.400
23.400
3.460
3.460
3.343
3.343
--
344
344
3.757
3.757
3.475
3.475
344
344
--
3.544
3.544
23.400
23.400
3.544
322
322
Further
are needed
€/MW capacity,
in 2020, inanalyses
the baseline scenario
Ea Energianalyse
322
322
--
Preliminary observations
• The targets set-out can be achieved given
the RE resources available (stronger targets could be
met)
• Wind power appears to be the most costefficient measure (however more detailed analyses required)
• Benefits of increasing strengthening the
transmission grid in the region
• Benefits of cooperation on achieving RE
targets
Ea Energianalyse
Scope of the study
• Phase I
– Overview of current energy situation
– Scenarios for the future regional energy system
• Phase II
– Detailed scenario analyses of the electricity and district
heating markets
– Prioritized list of regional projects/polices to promote the
region as a sustainable region
• Phase III
– Develop strategies forWorkshop
deployment
– Regional
knowledge
sharing ingrowth
the fieldinofthe
sustainable
Energizing
the sustainable
Region
energy
Kaliningrad
– Outline the possibilities
for the industry to be frontrunners
10-11
June
2009
in the development
of new
energy
technologies
Medio 2008
Medio 2009
Ea Energianalyse
Recommendations
•
•
•
•
•
•
Develop a shared vision A Green Valley of Europe in order to mobilize
the strong traditions in the region for public-private co-operation.
Establish an energy stakeholder forum that includes different crossborder, cross-sector and cross-level actors. Not least the private sector
needs a larger international platform in order to go beyond small markets.
Develop regional projects which could benefit the region as a showcase
for comprehensive and sustainable energy systems including R&D and
demonstration activities.
Develop a common interconnector strategy for the region to allow for a
higher level of renewable energy penetration including from offshore wind
power.
Launch an action plan for efficient and sustainable heating, involving
the larger cities in the region and the district heating companies.
Establish a common regional training programme to strengthen the
capacities in energy planning. Such a programme should aim at developing
the exchange of experiences and best practices among officials at local and
national level.
Ea Energianalyse
THANK YOU
Ea Energianalyse
Ea Energianalyse
Analyses
(-50 % comp.
to 1990)
Leading to a synthesis scenarios for the region based on the outcome of the
analyses and subsequent discussions of the results with key stakeholders in the
region
Ea Energianalyse
Fuel prices
• In accordance the latest projection of the
International Energy Agency
Long-term oil price:
App. 120 USD/bbl
Biomass/waste:
-2,5 to 12 €/GJ
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* excl. North West Russia
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RE targets 2020
• Assuming, that the absolute share of
renewable energy in electricity
consumption should increase 1.5 times
more than the overall share of renewable
energy.
Ea Energianalyse
Electricity demand
Ea Energianalyse
Wind power potentials
Ea Energianalyse
Based on the model analyses it
will be possible to quantify the
benefits of a common a RE
framework
Ea Energianalyse
Selected DRAFT results
To the consumer price should be added to the cost
of RE subsidies/certificates
Ea Energianalyse
Selected DRAFT results
Benefits of increasing the
transmission grid in the region
Germany Germany
Germany Germany
Germany Denmark
Denmark Denmark
Denmark
Germany
Germany
Germany
Denmark
Denmark
Germany
Cen.
NE
NW
East
West
Cen.
NE
NW
East
West
Cen.
NE
NW
East
West
Germany
Germany
Germany
Cen.
Cen.
Cen.
Germany
Germany
Germany
NE
NE
NE
Germany
Germany
Germany
NW
NW
NW
Denmark
Denmark
Denmark
East
East
East
Denmark
Denmark
Denmark
West
West
West
Estonia
Estonia
Estonia
Finland
Finland
Finland
Lithuania
Lithuania
Lithuania
Latvia
Latvia
Latvia
Norway
Norway
Norway
MM
M
Sweden M Sweden N Sweden S
Sweden
59.745
59.745
59.745
80.651
80.651
80.651
59.745
59.745
59.745
-- -
20.906
20.906
20.906
50.996
50.996
50.996
51.096
51.096
51.096
80.651
80.651
80.651
20.906
20.906
20.906
-- -
71.531
71.531
71.531
71.604
71.604
71.604
77.310
77.310
50.996
50.996
50.996
71.531
71.531
71.531
-- -
309
309
309
5.779
5.779
25.364
25.364
2.607
2.607
2.353
51.096
51.096
51.096
71.604
71.604
71.604
309
309
309
-- -
5.707
5.707
25.561
25.561
7.934
7.934
2.483
19.959
19.959
15.762
15.762
29.392
29.392
29.473
29.473
2.194
100.468
62.983
62.983
-4.461
4.461
10.103
10.103
9.789
9.789
4.461
4.461
--
10.103
10.103
9.789
9.789
-399
399
399
399
--
5.744
5.744
5.744
77.310
77.310
77.310
100.468
100.468
100.468
62.983
62.983
62.983
5.707
5.707
5.707
73.731
73.731
73.731
2.353
2.353
2.353
244
244
--
3.506
3.506
2.483
2.483
2.483
19.959
19.959
15.762
15.762
6.048
6.048
6.407
6.407
29.392
29.392
29.473
29.473
16.106
16.106
53.290
53.290
53.290
244
244
5.672
5.672
5.672
25.364
25.364
25.364
2.607
2.607
2.607
6.048
6.048
6.407
6.407
--
2.194
2.194
2.194
3.506
3.506
16.106
29.328
29.409
200
397
--
404
404
404
404
--
3.460
3.460
3.757
3.343
3.475
--
200
200
29.328
29.328
53.290
73.731
16.463
16.463
16.463
16.463
SwedenN
Sweden
NN
Sweden
SwedenSSS
Sweden
Sweden
Norway Norway
Norway Norway
Norway Norway
Norway
Norway
M
Oslo
Poland
M
NN
Oslo
SS
Poland
-- -
NorwayN
Norway
NN
Norway
Norway
Norway
Norway
Oslo
Oslo
Oslo
NorwaySSS
Norway
Norway
Poland
Poland
Poland
Sweden
Sweden
Sweden
MM
M
Estonia Finland
Finland Lithuania
Lithuania Latvia
Latvia
Estonia
Estonia
397
397
29.409
29.409
23.400
23.400
3.460
3.460
3.343
3.343
--
344
344
3.757
3.757
3.475
3.475
344
344
--
3.544
3.544
23.400
23.400
3.544
322
322
€/MW capacity, in 2020, in the baseline scenario
Ea Energianalyse
322
322
--
Next steps
• Final report by June 2009
• Presentation of results at
– WS: Energizing the sustainable growth in the Region,
Kaliningrad, 10-11 June
– 4 June, Copenhagen, Foreign Ministers
• Phase III
– Unfold the potentials identified in the scenario
analyses through stakeholder activities and further
analyses
– A synthesis scenario for the BSR
– Cooperation with Nordic Energy Perspectives
Medio 2008
Medio 2009
Ea Energianalyse
Comments to BSPC report
• Involve the stakeholders in the region
• Establish concrete activities on specific topics
– Opportunities for CHP in the big cities around the Baltic
– Common plan for off-shore wind in the BS
– Action plan for the utilization of municipal waste and
biogas for energy purposes
– Information and communication technologies to replace
physical transportation
• Mention Kriegers Flak as a showcase for the Baltic
Sea Region
• Education of the new energy planners
• Highlight the role of the cities as key to the
implementation of energy and climate policies
Ea Energianalyse